Squeeze
CAD/CHF HVF 13.5/1 Risk/Reward!!Its been a while since my last posting here on Tradingview, been quite busy, anyway, back to the chart.
We have here an amazing HVF setup on the CAD/CHF 1 hour.. Despite the economic reports out of Canada not meeting expectations we held the critical level for our L2 and if the support holds it is a must buy here for a R/R of 13.5 to 15/1 depending on how risky you want to be about it.
Happy trading
GBPAUD is going down :D... I hope...GBPAUD
well, there is not much to say, in 15m just broke a nice resistance, it seems that will make a nice shoulder-head-shoulder, also seems like the 1h and 15m 5th elliot wave, and the end of a 4th wave on 4h. It coudn't suppas the fibbo resistance. And well, in the lv2 there are like the HELL of a lot of selling positions right above that is scaring the price away...
Squezze is starting to fall, we have a short aceleration... What else we can ask? Maybe that MA 50 that is like saying "hey dont trusth this dud, go long" but... Naaa, who really cares about that silly MA... (Put some tight stops...) put stops around 1.9913... Or something like that, remember your spread.
Remember if you have a winning position and it goes to a losse position is a mistake that has no forgiveness, please follow your trade with stops and so. This is a daily swing, that could turn into a positioner trade... It might go short for weeks :D
That is what I am aiming for. SELL MY CHILDREN SEELLLLL!!!
Short and Long Trade Filter for Finding Price Extreme PivotsOnly short when shorter moving average (80 SMA) is over the upper thick bollinger band (400 SMA square root of 2 standard deviation band). Only long when it's below the lower.
The actual entry trigger is one of six things (in order of most importance):
1.) test of major horizontal resistance line
2.) break of a pattern that supports the bias (e.g. M pattern for short; W pattern for long)
3.) test of an hourly, 4 hour, daily, monthly, or yearly pivot (classical pivots) level: S1,S2,S3,R1,R2,R3, etc.
4.) test of a major fibs extension level (1.414, 1.5, 1.618, 2.0, 2.618, 3.0, etc.)
5.) RSI divergence AND a favorable MACD cross
6.) a test of one of the bands under (for long) or over (for short) the thick band - this is a really aggressive entry when used by itself.
The more of #'s 1-6 that happen simultaneously, the higher the probability that price will pivot favorably from that level and the easier it becomes to decide on a logical stop loss (price patterns and horizontal S/R levels give structure to base stop losses from).
This set-up is especially strong when the 400 SMA bands are squeezing. The theory is that the price should, more often than not, explode out of the squeeze on the side that the 80 SMA is in relationship to the 400, or in the direction that the 400 SMA is moving at the time of the squeeze, UNLESS the 80 is near the thick band (within 10% distance between it, the thick band and the 400 SMA). If the 400 bands are squeezing and the 80 SMA is near to touching, or moving outside of, one of the thick bands, then price is more likely to shoot out of the squeeze in the opposite direction.
So this set-up is best used for two things:
1.) finding price extremes, from which price is likely to pivot into decent gains as a counter-trend play, if not getting us in at the start of a new trend altogether.
2.) increasing the odds that we get in on the right side during a long-term price range (400 SMA bollinger band squeeze), on fast moves with high percent gains.
I've only tested this set-up on shorter time frames for SPY, with decent results in back-testing the idea. Whether or not it is useful at longer time-frames and other stocks, forex, etc., is yet to be seen.
BB-KC Squeeze Forming on 1hr S&P500There is currently a strong squeeze building on the S&P500 60min chart. This combined with weakening short, mid, and long term momentum indicators leads to a slightly bullish position. If breakout occurs to the downside expect a strong run to 2075 support level with a breakout to the upside being short lived.
ETHBTC MEGABEAR MARKETBuyers abound and have tried to roll the dice but had no success in moving higher thus far. As a result a squeeze bar popped up offering a good entry for shorts. If theres a leg up fated to fail from the get-go its a flash crash case. I see it as wave 3 of a leg A of a leg Z in a triple zig zag. When the squeeze is over the next impulse down must carry enough weight to drown out the bull noise and send the price to as low as 0.01066666.
Bitcoin guarantees Christmas after the squeeze Bitcoin is in a massive squeeze which will result in a very big move once the price breaks out. The direction is still unclear so I present two scenarios.
This is scenario B: The bullish break-out.
In this scenario the price keeps on moving slowly a bit lower, but then strongly reverses the direction and starts a very big rally towards the end of the year, after the BTC reward halvening (which will happen in about 12 weeks).
P.S. Here is a link to scenario A: The bearish break-out:
Unease after the Bitcoin squeeze Bitcoin is in a massive squeeze which will result in a very big move once the price breaks out. The direction is still unclear so I present two scenarios.
This is scenario A: The bearish break-out.
In this scenario the price keeps on moving even longer in a sideways move and slowly starts to decline, with a crash towards the end of 2016.
XOM Resistances and SupportsHmm. Who is going to benefit the most from oil prices going up? Maybe the biggest integrated and hedged oil company in the business? You betcha.
I bought calls on XOM at the 72.50 strike 3 trading days ago and got in with a $73 price entry. I'm planning to ride XOM up until it hits resistance at 1 of my two target points highlighted in green. I have highlighted key points of resistance and support as a nice visual.
I bought it only $6 away from its 52 Week low and I am planning on closing it at the $82.50-$87.25 price range.
I will keep you guys updated.
Ryan
Short Squeeze in Crude Oil could lead a reboundAfter bullish momentum yesterday and rupture of the USD29,80 resistance, oil has room for a rebound to the USD35 and USD38 leves.
There is a buy signal in the RSI and will be soon at the MACD, the latter presents divergence with the price. These three indicators increase the likelihood of upward movement. The expectation of falling prices to USD20 has possibly increased short positions, which would feed long positions.
From fundamental perspective, low prices would not be sustainable in the medium and long term, because Middle Eastern governments need to finance their spending. Long-term investors know that these prices represent a good buying level.
The rebound could be extended in the short term to moving average area of 20 to 40 periods and the downward trendline. The rebound fail if the USD29.80 support breaks.
Short USD/CAD AFTER (!!!) Market Has Shown Topping ActionNot much can stop USD/CAD bull stampedo until oil shows some strenght or dollar weakens.
FED is the key to watch next week. We are sure it will be interesting to see whether oil is able to test double bottom from 2009 and what market reaction is after FED finally starts raising rates.
We will be watching USDCAD for potential short after some strong signals on smaller timeframe charts.
Until then WE ARE LONG minded or NEUTRAL and most imporatant BE CAREFUL and don't get caught in the wrong direction. Use stops.
Stay tuned!
zetta21.net
XLF - Squeeze release soonWith a massive squeeze on 4 timeframes (4hr/6hr/1D and 1W), XLF is poised to make a big move (In the chart, blue candles are all TF squeeze candles).
Squeeze release is usually accompanied by a fakeout, so need to be careful there, but based on other momentum indications, good chance of this breaking up. Breaking up that RSI resistance will be a good confirmation.
First target is 25.8 level.
Tight Volatility getting ready for a Squeeze higherLots of Buy stops are building up above as volatility and price action are getting tighter, so I am expecting a big move UP going into May. This would make sense for the "sell in May and go away" as we need a big move up in order for the strong hands to sell to the weak hands who buy at the top. Look what happened last Sept when price broke out and the strong hands sold to the weak hands