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Squeeze

BTC: Don't Catch a Falling CoinPrimary Chart: BTC's Right-Angled Triangle "Don't catch a falling knife" is an oft-quoted aphorism among traders and investors. At its core, it's a warning about the dangers of buying into a downtrend or sharp drop before price has shown evidence of a bottom. Of course, there are profitable trading moves around buying dips in uptrends , and this cautionary phrase is not meant to address that situation. And some expert traders frequently do attempt to catch falling knifes at key supports, with tight stops, and with smaller position size, while acknowledging the low-probability nature of the obvious countertrend play. BTCUSD has experienced a severe ten-month downtrend since its all-time high. Experts have debated far and wide whether cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH and others have put in a lasting bottom or whether new lows are ahead. To attempt to catch the bottom in BTC now is as risky as it was back at the end of March 2022 after BTC's first bear-market rally. To buy BTC now, especially blindly and without a trading or investing strategy, is a lower probability bet than waiting in cash (for investors) or positioning on the short side (for traders). This is a time when the saying "don't catch a falling knife" applies. The author acknowledges, however, that fundamentally oriented investors may have reasons apart from technical charts to buy BTC for the very long term that may indeed remain valid. But even some well-known fundamentally driven professional money managers in this decade do not just ignore what the technicals and price trends shown on the charts are saying. BTC's Established Downtrend Since November 10, 2022 BTC has remained in a severe downtrend since November 2021 when it made an all-time high at $69,000. The Primary Chart shows a basic downward trendline where each bear rally has found resistance. Note also how this downward trendline rejected price repeatedly several times in late March and early April 2022. Once again this week, just when many wondered whether BTC was about to prove that its June 2022 low was a lasting one, BTC reversed right at this trendline. This trendline is also shown by the zero line of the Fibonacci channel, drawn on the chart below Supplementary Chart A: Fibonacci Channel for BTC The Primary Chart also shows that price has held above key support at June 2022 lows in recent months, which causes BTC's price action to form a sizeable right-angled triangle . Unlike symmetrical triangles, right-angled triangles imply a breakout direction. Martin Pring, a well-known technical expert, writes: "The symmetrical triangle does not given an indication of the direction in which it is ultimately likely to break. The right-angled triangle does, with its implied slanting level of support or resistance." But one cautionary point Pring makes is that triangle breakouts experience retracement moves frequently. If the original breakout is missed, some savvy traders often move in to catch a backtest if one occurs. Recent Confirmation of BTC's Downtrend BTC has confirmed its downtrend remains viable this week. Price tried to break above the downward trendline shown on the Primary Chart above. But it failed right at this resistance level. BTC has also tried to break and hold above three anchored VWAPs from the past several months. Each VWAP is placed at a key level of support / resistance at a recent swing high or low. The first is the anchored VWAP from May 31, 2022. The second is the VWAP anchored to the June 2022 low., the third is the VWAP anchored to the mid-August 2022 high. Below, Supplementary Chart B shows these three anchored VWAPs. More importantly, BTC's chart shows three failed breakout attempts above the May 31, 2022, VWAP. It shows five failed breakout attempts above the VWAP anchored to the June 2022 low. It shows one failed breakout attempt as to the VWAP anchored to the mid-August 2022 peak. Supplementary Chart B: Three Anchored VWAPS The most recent breakout attempt during the first week of September 2022 was notable for its speed and force. Within a mere six days, BTC's price rose 22.87 percent from the low to high of that swing. Considering that swing, however, most of the gains have been lost in the 3-4 days since its peak on September 13, 2022. BTC has also lost all its key retracements of this 22.87% six-day rally, except for the .786 retracement. Losing the .50 and .618 retracements of this rally, combined with the multiple failed breakouts above the May, June and August anchored VWAPS, provides further evidence to support the downtrend's continuation in the near term. Supplementary Chart C: Fibonacci Retracements of 22.87% Rally in Early September Further, the slope of the 8-day EMA provides a useful gauge of near term trends and momentum. Since the 22.87% rally ending September 13, 2022, the 8-day EMA has decisively begun to slope down again. Price has also crossed below it and found resistance into it. The 8-day EMA has also crossed below the 21-day EMA, a more intermediate-term trend gauge that also has turned down. Supplementary Chart D: Slope of 8-day and 21-day EMAs Attempting to guess where the bottom is and blindly buying, hoping that the price will rise, can sometimes work very well. But it fails more often than it works. A more strategic and prudent approach might be to evaluate some of the most simple trend gauges. Tuning out all the news and other noise about potential bottoms, one could consider the 8 and 21 EMAs on this chart, together with the other technical evidence. They have signaled along with the anchored VWAPs that the path of least resistance is lower for now. Further Evidence from Recent Peak in Momentum The 22.87% six-day rally in early September was impressive. Without seeing the downward trendline, one might suspect that BTC might be attempting to prove its June 2022 lows were final lows. But not only did price peak right at the downward trendline as one might expect, RSI momentum peaked just below the resistance level formed over BTC's entire summer rally since June 2022 lows. Note how RSI peaked at approximately 61.34 on September 12, 2022, the day before price hit the trendline and reversed lower. This is a common spot where RSI can reach during valid downtrends. In other words, RSI in a downtrend can find resistance at an upper range of 50-65. Supplementary Chart E: RSI Peak at Resistance on September 12, 2022 The Fibonacci Channel's Dynamic Support Levels The Fibonacci channel not only provides a clear trend gauge with its zero line, it also provides dynamic levels of support and resistance that run parallel to the predominant trend. The chart below shows the Fibonacci channels parallel lines with annotations pointing to areas of dynamic support where price may reach in the coming weeks. First, the teal line is the .236 retracement, a line immediately below this Fibonacci channel's zero line that runs parallel to it at a .236 proportion of the entire channel. Each of these Fibonacci channel supports are dynamic, which means that they change as time progresses. The teal .236 line would be the first multi-week support to consider around $14,700-$16,500. If this line does not hold, then the next line down, the .382 line (purple) offers support at approximately $10,000 to $13,000 in late September and early October 2022. Supplementary Chart F: Fibonacci Channel Intermediate-Term Support Levels Violation of Short-Term Levels Before the Next Trend Move Before the next downtrend move can occur, however, the June 2022 lows must break. The June 2022 lows lie at $17,592-$17,930. Another key level must also be broken before concluding that June 2022 lows will be tested. This level is $19,223, which is .786 retracement of the entire summery rally for BTC. This 19,223 level also coincides with the other Fibonacci .786 retracement of the early September rally at $19,447.57 (shown in Supplementary Chart C above). Supplementary Chart G: Fibonacci Retracements for Entire Summer Rally in BTC Volatility Compression Suggests Directional Move Ahead Lastly, volatility typically runs in cycles. Volatility compression leads to volatility expansion, and volatility expansion tends to lead to volatility compression. One way to gauge when the next directional move is nearing is to examine volatility. The Bollinger Bands help traders do so. The Bollinger Bands plot a line at a given number of standard deviations above and below a mean. The Bollinger Bands on BTC's chart below are plotted at the default of two standard deviations above and below the mean. The Bollinger Bands on the daily chart of BTC show volatility has compressed despite the 22.87% move in early September and the sharp selloff since. This suggests a significant trend move is approaching rather than completing. Given evidence of BTC's downtrend being well established, consider that the probabilities favor a downward trend move in the coming weeks associated with the end of the volatility-compression and the start of its expansion. Supplementary Chart H: Bollinger Bands and Volatility Compression _____________________________________ Please note that this technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction. BINANCE:BTCUSDT CME:BTC1! BITSTAMP:BTCUSD KRAKEN:BTCUSD
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by SquishTrade
22
$GME rare opportunity 👁‍🗨 *This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management* Here @SimplyShowMeTheMoney we strive to educate our traders on the importance of being able to recognize rare occurrences in the market structure on a chart. Today GameStop $GME presented us with a rare opportunity in its structure that my team simply could not ignore. We watched $GME open at 12% and shoot up to around 20% before retracing all gains back down to the negative 1 hour before the final bell. This comes as we enter a busy earnings week with a 2-day fed meeting that begins tomorrow and numerous data reports that could ultimately dictate the direction of the feds and the market. $GME is no stranger to making headlines. With midterm elections right around the corner we wouldn't be surprised if $GME made a ridiculous move in either direction. My team was able to secure shares of $GME at $28 while it was red this afternoon. We have an automatic stop loss set at $27 due to the obvious risk factors associated with $GME. Entry: $28 Stop loss: $27 If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
NYSE:GMELong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
4
Is BTC forming a hyper Squeeze?According to Bollinger, there's one pattern that raises more questions than any other aspect of Bollinger Bands. He calls it "the Squeeze." As he puts it, his bands, "are driven by volatility, and the Squeeze is a pure reflection of that volatility." Alright then. There forms a pure squeeze seemingly triggering a volatility heading our way. Either a sudden high volatility may attempt to drain to a historical touchdown to about 85%, and the bottom is found. Or, the parabolic rally may trigger with some kind of event bringing-in the confidence that's quite much lost throughout. Hypothesis: Holders' hope at 19k range (the squeeze, the diamond hands, the believers, the sustained bottom found). 83-85% drop from ATH at 11k range (the great squeeze insinuated volatility, the historic bottom found). Great three taps at 4k range (conspiracy theory, managed manipulation, so-called diamond hands slippage). And eventually the great reset at .5k range to eventually ZERO (Satoshi Nakamoto is someone around, watching, developing Bitcoin V2, or a replacement, who knows the evolving technology impact fairly better than many of the computer engineers and geniuses to date, foresees bitcoin failure (he didn't quite anticipate this much of energy be consumed to mine, cost of electricity to be paid, and a handful of companies and people having a total control of manufacturing ASICs, and is designing something else superior than Bitcoin to sustain Quantum era attacks, mining equipment affordability so that all can mine, a new concept rebirth, sustainability, and so on).
INDEX:BTCUSD
by coreSATS
Towel stock will have a glorious bounce. Good entry area now.OBV hasn’t even came close to falling back to its previous lows before BBBY’s run up in July/August. In fact.. OBV hasn’t even broken down resistance.. it’s still holding a pretty strong bullish signal and share price is below previous lows in July.. Certainly share price is undervalued on the technical side. Check out my ideas on GME because these stocks tie together in my personal opinion. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
NASDAQ:BBBYLong
by Trexarch
2
Bitcoin is reaching a critical stateLooking at the chart analysis, you can see a few things: 1. The Bollinger bands' upper and lower boundaries are squeezing, which likely means a big move is happening. If the price goes over the basis, it will most likely break upwards, while if the price continues being under the basis, then it will most likely break downwards. 2. The “Descending triangle” that has been forming since past month is coming to an end. 3. Bitcoin's volume has been decreasing ever since the descending triangle formed. Due to these occurrences, Bitcoin is about to finally change its direction, and maybe end the sideways motion it had since August. This in turn will change the direction of the Crypto market. This is not investing advice, and I will respect everybody's opinion. Feel free to say what you think about this study. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by lorinstocksinvesting
2
(UPDATED)Revisiting my prior theory on creation of FTDs thru TTTInstead of explaining why I believe GameStop still has immense value, I am just going to make an update to my previous 3 posts on creation of “Failure to Delivers” through SWAPs and the short ETF, “TTT.” Please check out my other posts if this type of stuff interests you, it is brand new information that just hasn’t been picked up by anyone yet, the correlation between TTT & GME is blatantly painful to look at, considering the amount of people who ignore it. I strongly believe TTT is being manipulated to then also manipulate GME.. We’ve watched GME follow closer to SPY on intraday trading than apple, Microsoft, or even amazon!! WHY?! Crime is the answer… algorithms.. liquidity grabs.. it’s all one big game in which we will end up victorious this time. Now.. for the reason you are all here.. looking at the updated chart above, you can clearly see that TTT has been going straight parabolic ever since we’ve dipped from over the 40’s.. interesting right?? Around when Mayo Man moved over half a billion dollars for “strategic setups.” BS… my real opinion is the price has been even faker than it has ever been since August 8th. I believe this could potentially be the end game short ladder attack.. Mark my words.. Educate yourselves with my ideas on all of my other posts.. it’s okay if you disagree. DRS TO THE FKN MOOOOOOOOOOOOON NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE IM NOT SELLING
NYSE:GMELong
by Trexarch
5
30 Minute TimeframeHere is the new indicator on the 30 min timeframe. I wrote it to read daily SPX even in smaller timeframes so you can get more frequent updates on gamma and delta. Combine with Ichimoku Cloud and some TA and you got some predictable outcomes to build hedging, swing trades or even scalping short squeeze bottoms. Ascending Triangle is a perfect example of volatility compression. Higher at top of triangle = Volatility Rising lower trend line = Support Vix is playing its part. Below trendline = volatility compressing 🤷 Above trendline = volatility compressing 🤷 I think this sideways chop with squeezes higher or dumps overnight / AM continue until CPI on the 13th.
SP:SPX
by SPYvsGME
1