ADA - 4 HOUR Outlook - Bearish Signs BUT will it surprise us??With ADA being below the VWAP, I'm reserving the other half of what I plan to DCA into it until I see how this plays out...
HVP indicator is looking interesting too; like something is building up, like a major move up or down... Indications are 'down' or questionable at best...
Fibonacci from peak to bottom in this range, we've only penetrated the Golden Pocket once, and got kicked out of the Golden Pocket Club. LOL!!
So, I say, "Cardano, please come on down, so I can DCA some more!"
Be safe out there Kiddos!!
Sr
Current 6 HOUR CHART PROJECTION of SUPPORT and RESISTANCE6 HOUR CHART Projection
I believe if BTC were really going to finish off shaking the smaller fish out, it would've perhaps fallen out of this falling wedge by now, but I could be wrong.
I will have to respect what the Fib is saying too, with regard to where we are right now.
Price has not been able to break back up into the Golden Pocket Fib of the last pivot. That is concerning. I'm not saying it will in fact break down, but the technicals say it may, even though falling wedges usually yield the result of breaking out and up.
But I will say that price has managed to cling just above the white dashed price line of support.
If we do fall from here on BTC, I believe we have a very strong level of support to catch us, which is the other white line below, around 40.5k, and 38.6k is the bottom of that range...
Below are some closer views along with the more zoomed out view of the mentioned areas of support and value.
Be safe out there folks!! Keep your friends close and your stop loss closer!!
- CryptDude (also known as CryptDollar outside the Discord world)
BTCUSD Healthy RetraceHey folks,
Pulling the Weekly BTCUSD chart today to see where we are in this pullback and breaking news... We're still bullish!
Sometimes you just need to zoom out a little bit to see the big picture. We gained an important weekly SR level when we broke the 10K level (~$9948).
Generally speaking, all important levels once broken need to be tested so we can confirm the direction of the trend.
We did a perfect pullback to the higher 9Ks. Many expected 9.6K to fill the infamous CME gap. But what is the CME gap exactly? I'm not very compelled by the "fill the gap" narrative and I see absolutely no reason for CME gaps to be filled all the time. Gaps are simply symptomatic of the limited trading periods that CME operates on while we have an asset trading 24/7. There is no fundamental reason why these gaps would need to be filled.
With that said, I'm expecting a bit of sideways from here. Drawing a fractal using the latest swing low PA shows a possible outcome. Note however that fractals are rarely repeated 100%. If BTC manages to close the weekly above $10,450 - $10,500 this should give a solid ground for bulls to step in. The next few weeks leading to the US elections will be decisive in this market on many economical and sociological levels.
Keep an eye open on the SPX and stocks market. This dump was initiated by the weakness of the traditional market after favorable employment reports came out of the US and the US Dollar started to gain strength (look at the DXY chart). We are still very much correlated to stonks so further pain in equities could tank Bitcoin price as people run for cold hard fiat money, at least temporarily. On the longer term, monetary policies are still very much bullish for high-yield assets like Gold and Bitcoin.
Patience and strong hands will be rewarded.
The weaks will be devoured.
GOLD - Break & Retest Waiting for GOLD to break one of the SR zones.
After breaking, we put a pending order to the outer edge of the zone.
Highly recommend to use Twin Trading, for bigger potential profit.
Stop Loss - I'm using max 40 pips stop loss. The most important is, to put it behind the SR zone. But it all depends on your strategy and RRR.
Take Profit - Put take profit at the next potential SR zone, but as i said before, highly recommending using Twin Trading (take profit for just one order, and at the second one just moving stop loss to the profit with market). At break&retest strategy even the smallest chance for one successful Twin trading can be highly profitable.
Multiple Indicators, S/R, and Sentiment for EURUSD Long positionEURUSD has been consolidating the past few days. I believe it will continue to push upward for 3 reasons:
1. Support has been found at the ~1.13500 level on the 4H and Daily time frames.
2. iTrend has given reliable bullish signals since mid-February.
3. Trading View's built-in sentiment analysis is heavily bullish on the 4H and lower. This affects trader psychology greatly and I think it is a nice form of minor confirmation.
I rely on the iTrend on high timeframes to determine overall direction.
I then use the Laguerre RSI & Fisher Stochastic Center of Gravity for successful entry points.
I'm hoping to enter around 1.1379 (red dotted line) and ride out ~70 pips profit.
2nd chance entries (CL)Deeper look @ breakout setups.
Blindly selling Lows or buying Highs is a recipe for disaster in the long run.
But the right kind of buildup can legitimize a breakout (BO) entry. When a breakout failure (BOF) does NOT immediately make a strong move in the other direction, you've got to ask yourself -- has the power balance really shifted?
If not, it could just be another example of pressure building in the original BO direction.
** Also, take a look at the breakout entry at B (no buildup) vs D (buildup). Especially relevant for a coiling market like crude oil.
GC strong buildup ahead of breakout with FOF setupSee chart for notes.
When a breakout failure DOESN'T immediately create a strong move, ask yourself who's really in control.
BOF's can create powerful moves, but early entrants can also be proved wrong really quickly. If they are, what does that do for your narrative?
A+ Setup: The best kind of build up This is the sort of setup that will make your week, month, or even your year.
You know when you just "know" a setup is going to work?
Well, I'd like to stop "just knowing" and actually define this. Because this is the sort of thing, if you traded exclusively, you'd have ridiculous W% and R stats, and crazy growth.
Here's why this setup is GRADE A+:
There's an overall, big picture bias. In this case, the D1 looks very heavy.
There's nothing that happens premarket to challenge that idea. Instead, the premarket action helps strengthen the bias. In this case, it's a wedge against the level we're looking at. Price has floated down to a level that's been tested twice and never really altered.
AT THE OPEN...Price forms a clear range within the 1m range. Price breaks out up (against our bias), but quickly traps longs and closes back down into the rage and quickly collapses.
That's SUCH a significant trap that it breaks past the low of premarket (the most important level) and straight to low of prior session. Prior lows COULD have been a great level for longs. BUT, as soon as the prior session lows were accepted, price was only going one way (and not chopping).
It's really a fantastic setup. Study it, use it.
NG short @ Daily SupportPretty simple -- if price drops through the green box, I'm looking for shorts on the 15m/H1 depending on the time of day.
NG doesn't move as nicely as more contracts, but you'll still see strong moves at the right areas. The more it compresses BEFORE attempting a breakout short, the more I like the trade idea.
NQ testing important resistance NQ1!See chart for summary.
I don't think the market has topped here, but I do think there's an opportunity for short term shorts to nail a momentum move down AFTER a fail at the zone. I included the EMA's here because they provide a good visual tool...a pullback to the 25 EMA + zone + price action fail....that's essentially what I'm looking for. Ideally I'd like to see it developing on the H1 and execute on the 5m tomorrow.
That's very specific, and like I said before, I've been burned by the NQ many times on technical setups. This is a algo heavy instrument that's perfected the art of the fakeout + trap.
If I'm completely wrong and price busts up through the level, this is still a chart worth studying.
Why?
Two reasons:
1. Momentum will come into the market here. First step in good trading is to identify when/where opportunities will present themselves.
2. The second step is knowing which direction to pick. I'm a discretionary technical trader...and if I'm clearly trapped, it's a chance to study how the NQ will set up attractively to one side and then slam the other way at the last minute.
Either way, watch for the move that's coming.
AUD/JPY looking shorts after D1 bears re-establish themselvesPretty simply....we've attacked this level really inefficiently over the last couple of weeks. Since that big gap down, price re-filled the area, retested the volatility expansion area, and failed to recover up past the preceding wedge.
Bias is down, looking for setups on the H1.
USDCAD getting ready for different big picture scenariosPretty simple, we're wedging at an important level. This is NOT a gimme setup because we're not really trending yet.
Let's watch for buildup at the level and see if we get naked attacks vs buildups....we'll have a better clue as to what's going to happen. Updates to follow!
AUD/USD finally turns and sets up (idea update #4)This was the sequence I was waiting for all week.
Bears reclaim control with strength, the move slices through the entire zone, THEN price stalls....it's a beautiful thing.
Please refer back to the attached ideas/charts from earlier this week, you'll see my commentary. Specifically, it's the strength of the move through the level that put this pair back into playable territory.