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everything could have just changedif we see downside in semiconductors and rotation between sectors tha is slower and more masured leading to slower losses in indices, and the countertrend movement breaks out into a larger rebound i would call this the beginning of a broader market recovery. the inverse is that we traverse slightly lower, and extend backwardation with resistance around estimate (we are now below) and not seeing support till lower envelope. basically the trend is threatening to reverse in short and in long term, and if sss signal stays green index could be a buy. top of channel is not out of the question.
NASDAQ:TQQQ
by cerealpatterns
above 17k likely, bear market still pressing cryptodollar up, crypto down id like to take a moment of silence for all the 2022 bulls. were in a basement btcusd and will stay there until monthly log support shapes up. 17k still likely to hit, but we will have months of essentially sideways action at this rate. unless something changes, the daring bet is scalping this weekly sideways between 17 and 15. after we revisit top of problem area, i wouldnt be surprised to see low 15s.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by cerealpatterns
5
bullish vs bearish conditions for spxspx could have bull or bear technical numbers on my chart depending on the path these indicators take. if they go up with the price thats bullish, and if they move lower with the price thats bearish. im bearish on touches of the upper levels marked out as the index rises or breaks of lower levels while it sinks, and im bullish on support from lower levels or breaks of higher levels if the index bounces. pivot around low anchored vwap. anchor vwap to top for dips, and bottom for rips.
SP:SPXEducation
by cerealpatterns
bounce loosing footing. tech first hit.the fundamental aspects of why weve bounced are still very much up in the air. this is causing uncertainty, and thats leading to profit taking. from a technical standpoint the rebound is strong, but if we zoom in we find momentum has not completed a reversal. id imagine this means we are in for a revisit of signal, estimate, sss ma and finally bottom of envelope. i wouldnt discount the potential for continued upside, but weve peeked into the sss supply zone and so far the resistance is quite strong.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by cerealpatterns
betting on rip sellits fantastic that major indices are still managing to find areas of support on the way down. this to me is indicating when we do finally recover it will happen in a reliable manner. its also telling me that these areas are not max pain. to find a bottom permenantly id like to see bullishly diverged oversold levels in high volume. right now signal is still red, and trama sss ma are resistive near top of envelope. these indicators would need to show green candles before spx is a buy again.
SP:SPXShort
by cerealpatterns
10% if we pull back to trama and the .5 fib levelthere may be confirmation of a bottom if we continue this pullback to higher levels daily bitcoin. by every measure theres been a slow daily grind up after the last distributive weekly move. if we retrace to a reasonable lwvel i imagine reviaiting trama isnt a problem. thats about 10% up. envelope is fonally tilting up although sss ma is still acting as resistance. if we break thursdays low were in for bottom of range. upper horizontals are sell targets and lower are buy to close targets pivot is dashed line.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by cerealpatterns
talk about non-fungible a es1! call contract is the be allwhy do we pay so much to securitize capital? anyway were coming to a head with front month spx futures. the s&p is reacing the bottom end of envelope, and revisiting trama or sss ma seems likely. i bet if we breech pivot we see upper horizontals, and if that lwvel resistswe see lower. if vix is raging monday im still not interested in calls until we see bullish divergence. if we reverse from extremes im only interested in calls off the bottom level or bull breeches of pivot. interesting puts are around upper level. daily is bear until we see the pattern of lower highs break.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by cerealpatterns
were right around vwap anchored at last sell signalwhether we blow through this vwap and smash though the sss supple zone, or pull back to retest sssma and trama, it looks like the upper nadaraya watson envelope gets touched again. im waiting on another sell signal from that strategy. it seems like theres this scenario where the vix gaps up and takes off, but more measured and muted drawdown has been the norm for weeks as we grind lower. we really need to see qqq, xlf, soxl, spy to new lows if we want to long vix, and we really would like to see rotation firing on all cylinders with iwm, xlv, xle green to see a bottom story coming out of broader matkets. if we come to the top of this range and pull back i would close long.
AMEX:UVXYLong
by cerealpatterns
weekly picture at crossroadseither we hit this weekly sss demand zone and bounce, or we blow through it and make new lows. we are at bottom of envelope, and it appears to be turning. if sss signal stays red and we break 362.17 i thikk were in for 350.77 if not much lower around 320. if we bounce off that 363 level, and we get over the 377 range ithink were in for 396 maybe 405. horizontals dont align exactly with fib but thats because were in the middle of the retracement and havent found a bottom. the chances are low that we finish the week strong and start next week with a bounce, but i bet that when we do get a move with clairity its either a reversal around double bottom or a bearish continuation of trend.
AMEX:SPYShort
by cerealpatterns
using sss and trama as a guidexbt is trending in bull reversal, and we have an hourly pullback from the current day high that is showing price will revisit one of these levels. the most bullish case is we stay long sss and qqe 15 minute and bounce off signal or moving average and that is marked out in dark green. the slightly less bullish case is if we go for a touch of rising trama. if we bounce from there the range is marked out in light green. the slightly more bearish case is if we break trama and head for that sss supply zone. this is an area we could still bounce from and its marked out in light red. if we go red sse and qqe and break beneath sss supply zone we could follow the path marked in dark red. over all were still in a trending market that is bullish.
BITMEX:XBTLong
by cerealpatterns
has tech retraced enough off this bottom to hold?if we get support over this pivot and the 0.5 retracement level id imagine we would have a bull pull up to a sell the rip level. if we get resistance to this pivot i see that well have a continued selloff to lower horizontals. if we have resistance to upper horizontals i think were at a sell the rip level. if we support along lower horizontals i see that were at a buy the dip level. if we start to breech lower horizontals with volume tech is bearish, and if we start to breech upper horizontals tech is bullish. the red or green ghost feed is a path the nasdaq could follow.trama sinking and resisting is bearish. trama rising and supporting is bullish. qqe and sss red or green is long or short. if we stay short qqe and red sss it s bearish if we turn green sss and long qqe its bullish.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by cerealpatterns
whether to go bull based on this daily bounce alonei onlywant to long bull breech of this pivot, short the upper horizontal, long the lower horizontal, or short a bear touch of this pivot. if sss and qqe go long, im long. if qqe and sss go short, im short. if trama gets touched,and heads down with price that adds to a bear case. if trama acts as support and rises that adds to the bull case. this applies to the full broader market spectrum, and the crypto space when the dollar is bearish for a bull crypto scenario, and dxy is bullish for a bear crypto scenario.
AMEX:SPYLong
by cerealpatterns