Stablecoins are reversing - Crash targetsAs for Dogecoin there are 2 scenarios:
1) We have a deal with Triangle on a minor degree. In this scenario price unable to go much further than 0.302
2) We have a deal with primary Diagonal, in this scenario price may reach 0.177 before first reaction. But after this reaction fall may continue and update the 2022 low slightly.
#BTC #DOGE #USDT
Stablecoin
MKR broke out of channel MKR is the token used to vote on MakerDAO - decentralized autonomous organization controlling DAI. DAI is a stablecoin supposedly controlled by a decetralized organization instead of more cetralized competitors. Currently its market cap is around $2 Bln and DAI mcap is $5.4 bln. In the altcoin market it is quite reasonable to place a bet on stablecoins and one of the limited ways to do it is MKR.
It will most likely reach the green zone which is a nice 20% trade. After that it will reach resistance both Fibonacci and that giant triangle- wise.
CRACKS ARE FORMING IN USDT DOMINANCE! THE END IS NEAR!USDT has completely dominated the stablecoin market for a long time now, but cracks are beginning to form in its foundation that could cause the whole structure to come crashing down. People are losing trust in USDT, even though the vast majority of trading platforms use it as the sole medium of exchange on their platforms. Competitors are turning up the heat in this market, and companies like Circle (USDC), which are fully audited, as well as newcomers like Ripple's RLUSD, could pose a serious challenge to USDT if it doesn't prove its reserves through regular audits and restore investor confidence.
I personally believe that USDT is a Ponzi scheme, similar to the Federal Reserve, which continuously counterfeits dollars by minting excess tokens, with nothing but faith backing them. I also believe that the time of USDT's dominance is coming to a swift end.
Once RLUSD is released and available for purchase to Wall Street and Main Street, I believe that the majority of stablecoin holders will switch from USDT to RLUSD, as Ripple is one of the most transparent and reputable companies within the crypto space. I am one of these people.
Good luck, and don't put all your eggs in one basket!
XRPUSDT: READY TO PUMP AGAINHello All:
Welcome to the quick update of XRPUSDT. After consolidating for a few days, XRP pumped around 20-25% until 0.64
As of now, it is making a bull flag kind of pattern, it has broken it and retested and can pump again anytime soon at around 20%.
We can take a long entry into this fundamentally good and stable coin.
Possible entry-exit points:
Entry: 0.5821 to 0.6100
Target: 0.651, 0.672, 0.698, until 0.7800 in the long run.
STOPLOSS: 0.5700
Until then, stay tuned and trade with caution, ensuring strict STOPLOSSES!!
This is not financial advice, please do your research before investing, as we are not responsible for any of your losses or profits.
Please like, share, and comment on this idea if you liked it.
ScramblerG is always there to help and trade with caution but DYOR.
This will make our jobs easier if #Stablecoin Dominancewas to reach the inverse head & shoulder target :)
Almost the same % when the #crypto market topped out last cycle.
Will it?
IDK!
Should u wait to those low single digit numbers before u emabrk on profit taking?
probably not.
We shall keep an eye on this of course.
Best of Luck
TRX - The Outlier - Time For A Mega Short?Ah, Tronix. Yes, it's actually called "Tronix", not "Tron." The coin with the disappearing wallet. No joke, I made a wallet back in early 2019 for TRX and stored the private key. I like to do things the old fashioned way, so I wrote it down and double-checked it by logging in. The second time Iogged in, I got the notification, "this wallet doesn't exist." Since then, I've been pretty wary of this project. I could go into all sorts of conspiracy theories about Justin Sun, CZ, Binance, stablecoins......but I'll leave that to your imagination.
This is a purely technical setup. TRX is one of the few coins that has maintained higher support levels during this bloodbath. What's up with that? As far as I understand, TRX is burned to help keep the Tron stablecoin USDD pegged to the dollar. USDT recently moved away from the Tron network. Anomalies like this don't usually last long in the crypto market. I'm speculating that this breaks down massively. There's already buzz that TRX will be the next LUNA, but before I say it's going to zero, let's just look at horizontal supports. If TRX cannot hold the 200 MA on the 3 day (teal), and if it cannot hold that orange uptrend, I think it can fall 50% pretty quickly, much like other alts during this period.
On the bullish side, TRX will need to break and hold above the 200 day MA (teal in the below chart)
The 200 week MA lingers just below, at the 4 cents level. Now, the question is - does TRX test the 50 week MA near 8 cents one more time before dumping? Let's find out.
This is not meant as financial advice. This post is highly speculative, and is meant for entertainment :)
-Victor Cobra
SOLUSD: Snapping Back to $210 | 70.70% Probability!BINANCE:SOLUSD has been drawing a lot of attention in the crypto space in the past few days due to its integration with NASDAQ:PYPL
Let's have a technical analysis breakdown:
BINANCE:SOLUSD According to my Free Probability Indicator , There's a 70.00% chance it could climb back over $210 and beyond, which is pretty much encouraging!
If you're thinking about trading LINK, here's what you should consider:
Entry:
Wait for clear signs that the price is going up again.
Once you're confident the trend is changing, consider buying LINK.
I'm currently looking at the 8H Equilibrium to get positioned.
Exit:
To protect yourself from drawdowns, consider setting a "trailing stop-loss." This will automatically trigger a sell order if the price starts dropping again after you buy, securing your running profits.
Risk Management:
Ensure you're not risking more money than you can afford to lose.
Only invest what you're comfortable with and consider how much you're willing to lose if things don't go as planned.
This isn't financial advice, just some insights to help you make informed decisions. Always do your own research before investing in anything.
ETHENA looks ready to head up. Bullish.
Ethena has been in a downtrend for some time recently, but technicals are looking up right now. If we can maintain this momentum, and have this IHS play out, we could rip higher to the first profit target shown, then maybe way higher. We will see. Volatility is also very constricted and tight on this cryptocurrency right now.
And as everyone here knows... Low Volatility proceeds by Volatility.
Not Financial Advice. Do all of your own research. For me these are long term holds. Not "Trades". Risk Management still applies. Happy Hunting ; )
TETHER (USDT) COLLAPSE IS IMMINENT! With the United States about to pass strict regulation regarding stablecoins, which includes a measure to insure "Robust transparency, audit and reporting requirements," Tether is absolutely doomed, as they have consistently refused to confirm a 1:1 peg to the USD through an independent, third-party audit, which in my book, is because they're not doing it.
Something is fishy with Tether, and I would not be surprised if it has not maintained the 1:1 peg as it has claimed, but will soon be exposed as a fraud, and a ponzi scheme designed to benefit its owners at the expense of the general public.
On April 9th, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) announced that:
"This legislation develops two paths for stablecoin issuers.
1- The first path would be for depository institutions that would allow for both federal and state bank charter depository institutions to become stablecoin issuers after an approval process.
2- The other path would be for nondepository institutions that would give the federal government supervisory authority over the state nonbank institutions while preserving states as the primary functional regulator."
This spells the end for Tether, and certain doom for any company whose business model relies upon it, such as: Exchanges, OTC desks, Trading Platforms and Wallets, Remittance Services and DEFI Platforms.
You were warned! Don't get caught holding the bag!
Bitcoin does a drop then pop LONGBTCUSD three days ago did a drop to take out stop losses and get shorts to take profit. Since
then it reversed climbing over a price of 45.4 K. The MACD lines are under the histogram which
just flipped negative to positive indicating the beginning or recycling of bullish momentum.
The RSI indicators are not at all in overbought territory no matter then run up over the
following three days. Relative Volumes are about 3X the running average. CLSK Clearspark
reported today and surged. Anyone who played my options idea for it, saw a 300% return
overnight. HUT likewise. Although I did not post an idea, BTBT got even more altitude and
got over its past year high while still only 20% of its all-time high, Is this with the crypto
resurgence at its onset predicted by both pundits and fortunetellers? Maybe or maybe not.
But what it might be is an opening to get into your favorite crypto play while the momentum
continues. I would seem that the most aggressive is near-term options on equities approaching
earnings. MSTR is a megacap slow moving and it got 25% in the past five days on the share price.
The small caps are moving much more than that. If you have cash in reverse this might be a
to deploy it judiciously here in some of the crypto action, in my opinion.
Cerberus sell signal Cerberus observes the ratio between stable coins and the markets to forecast extremes.
We are currently seeing a sell signal. The past sell was a fake out so its worth having a look a how often this can happen and if it has ever happen to see two fake outs in a row.
From 2017, where we can start tracking all the stable coins used in the indicator, we see 15 sell signals. So far only two including the past month one are the only ones that got it wrong. That’s about a 77% right.
What’s more interesting is to notice that there’s never been two signals wrong in a while.
Not financial advice only chart observations.
WHY IS THE FEDERAL RESERVE PUSHING FOR STABLECOIN REGULATION?WHY IS THE FEDERAL RESERVE PUSHING FOR STABLECOIN REGULATION?
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasizes the need for a legislative framework for stablecoins to ensure financial stability.
The Fed’s push for regulation highlights the growing integration of stablecoins with the traditional financial system and their potential risks.
Recent financial turmoil involving stablecoins, like the USD Coin incident, showcases their vulnerability and interconnectedness with traditional banks.
Looks like the Federal Reserve is steering America toward a future where stablecoins are not just acknowledged but also regulated. In his recent meetings with House Democrats, Jerome Powell made it plain that a legal framework for stablecoins is an absolute must if the United States is to effectively traverse these unexplored seas. This position shows a major change in attitude toward digital currencies, which is indicative of the increasing awareness of the possible effects they may have on the conventional financial system.
The Case for Regulatory Frameworks
Financial experts have come to a common understanding, as Powell has pointed out, that without a regulated framework, digital currencies might face problems as they gain popularity. One way to protect one’s wealth from the ever-changing cryptocurrency market is to invest in stablecoins, which are tethered to conventional currencies such as the US dollar. In addition to allowing merchants to make rapid transactions, they also provide a way to store or transfer funds independently of banks and are becoming more integrated into the traditional financial system. But this connection isn’t risk-free.
Recent events at Silicon Valley Bank and Circle Internet Financial Ltd. show how stablecoins are susceptible to swings in the conventional banking industry. Circle Internet Financial Ltd. had a large amount of USD Coin reserves stuck in the failing bank. Even while stablecoins are intended to be stable, they may still be affected by actual financial crises, which can impact both their value and the market as a whole. As an example of how closely linked digital currencies are to the conventional banking system, consider the USD Coin event, in which its value fell below $1 during a banking crisis before recovering due to government intervention.
The Ripple Effect on Monetary Policy
Stablecoin regulation is important to the Federal Reserve for a number of reasons, including but not limited to avoiding market volatility and mitigating their influence on monetary policy. Conventional methods of monetary regulation face a serious threat from the advent of narrow banks, stablecoins, and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). One example of how financial regulation is changing is the way the Federal Reserve has changed its monetary policy practices since 2007. These include paying interest on reserves and using reverse repos and central bank reserves to influence interest rates.
Looking at digital currency makes this transition even more apparent. Interest rate setting and the total amount of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet are only two areas where CBDCs and stablecoins have the ability to cause significant systemic disruption. In their published study, the Federal Reserve examines these effects and notes that monetary policy adjustments may be required to forestall a decline in lending and preserve economic stability in the case of digital currency integration.
Based on the similarities between stablecoins and CBDCs, the study concludes that digital currencies with higher interest rates would attract more investors and deter depositors from going to conventional banks, which might have an effect on lending volumes. As a result, the equilibrium interest rate would fall and the central bank would have less room to manoeuvre in times of crisis if this scenario plays out.
Another nuance comes from the idea of “narrow banks,” which compete with traditional commercial banks for customers’ deposits but do not provide loans themselves. Commercial banks may see a decline in lending capacity and repercussions to the loan market as a whole if depositors flee to these institutions due to their lower interest rates and easier structure.
Everyone is panicking!!! #USDC depegs! I accumulate :)#BTCUSD the down channel is self explanatory. Breakout and retest.
I'm thinking about 2025 and acting like a smart player.
During despair it's tooo easy to click the sell button along with the crowd.
Like it is too easy believe the paradigm and buy near the tops.
The USDC peg will be restored. Circles losses are actually quite small, and their treasury holdings generate a large yield.
Jim Cramer has been telling to sell for 9 months so u know it's the best time to accumulate :)
Deciphering the Charts: A Closer Look at BTCUSDT's FutureD ear TradingView Community,
B efore I delve into the analysis, it's important to note that I do not consider the current price level as the optimal entry point for a short position. While this prediction suggests a bearish outlook, the ideal entry points lie closer to the horizontal red dotted line. The suggested entry points are specific to my risk appetite, and your approach may differ. Even if you find merit in this prediction, your choice of entries, target prices, stop loss, trail profit parameters, and other safety measures should align with your individual risk tolerance. It's essential to understand that past performance does not guarantee future results.
I share a medium-term perspective with the community. This prediction is subject to short-term fluctuations, and its outcome depends on various technical factors aligning. Our AI system, drawing insights from deep neural network analysis, has identified the potential emergence of a bearish chart pattern known as a "rising" pattern, which often marks the end of bullish trends.
S o, what technical indicators support the idea of a bearish rising pattern?
Notably, the volume has consistently decreased between October 24th and November 2nd, suggesting a period of consolidation or more. Historical data indicates that volume patterns often coincide with the conclusion of trends. In this case, the volume indicator implies that the recent bullish trend may be nearing end. It underscores the significance of the volume indicator in relation to channel pattern analysis.
A dditionally, on November 1st and 2nd, there were significant transactions, often referred to as "whale transactions," across major exchanges' spot BTC-USDT markets, primarily involving Bitcoin sales. The red candles in the transparent white boxes on the volume section of the chart represent these selling activities. While I avoid making hasty judgments, some theories in the crypto trading community suggest that whales tend to impact smaller traders. I present this information without taking a stance on the principle, but for those who find it relevant, it's worth considering.
T o illustrate this analysis, I've chosen to use 4-hour candles known for providing a balanced representation that minimizes market noise, making them suitable for weekly or even daily positions. Our AI system has outlined two potential scenarios for future price movements. The price could find support from the current trendline (represented by the bottom white line), leading to continued consolidation, as depicted by the top dotted white arrow. Alternatively, should the mentioned support break, it could pave the way for a more substantial decline, with the bottom dotted white arrow signifying the potential target price. Both scenarios complement our bearish perspective, with the top arrow indicating consolidation before a downturn and the bottom arrow visualizing a more direct fall.
W hile various indicators, such as Relative Strength Index (RSI) divergence, align with the potential scenarios depicted on the charts, it's essential to recognize that this pattern is unconfirmed. There's a chance that we may witness entirely different developments in the coming months. Therefore, I advise a cautious approach safeguarding your existing funds rather than aggressive day trading. Your financial security should always be your top priority.
tl;dr
Position: Short
Current Trend: Bullish
Upcoming Trend: Potentially Bearish
Indicators: Volume Consolidation, Whale Transactions, Rising Supports and Resistances, RSI Divergence
Important: This might not be the best entry. Don't forget your stop loss and trail profit if you decide to put any positions.
Warmest regards,
ELY
STABLECOIN – QUIZZ FOR SMART TRADERS
Few months ago, I posted on the USDT.D ( Follow the money if You wanna hit your target ).
According to the CryptoAsset market, USDT.D is 7.86%, so far. But if we add CRYPTOCAP:USDC.D to this chart, what is not insignificant because they are predominantly used in DEXs, we reaching 10.22% . Knowing that CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D is at 49.86% ; CRYPTOCAP:ETH.D at 19.03%.
The TOTAL represent quite 80% of the Market… Do you need me to draw a picture of what I think about the rest ?
In any case, when you are in an MarkUp channel, the probability of breaking it out to the downside could ONLY confirm the end of a trend, except for what you call a deviation (which in my language means a mSOW).
You’ve understood it well! A decrease in stablecoin dominance simply means their use in investment, or rather their re-injection into Cryptoassets market !
Even if this Chart showing a Ribbon reversal, even if it setup a potential exit, with a potential desire to kick the 200, IT WILL TAKE TIME to exit from this Failed Structure because to confirm this exit (once Major SOW happen), we need to see at least a pull back on the low Fork trendline (ICE), no more than its MidRange.
The only indication in this chart, is the volume decreasing for a potential spike/squeeze before any logical construction (because Weiss indicator bullshiting at this point!).
In the assumption of lapping the 200, it will be highly likely to confirm if there will be a rejection or not !
Aesthetically this MarkUp is so perfect. I won’t say if we gonna make another lap to continue the progression!
Of course, I would have preferred to see an upthrust before finding ourselves in front of this exit trap. Not that the last movement is too weak or too shy, which indicates the difficulty in a chaotic market progression. What is important in an increase or a decrease is not the trend itself, but rather the strength of the movement.
From Weekly to Daily
While in traditional markets, the construction of forks with different phases (from A to F) is obvious, in crypto, MM cause prices to fluctuate in all directions, leaving a lot of liquidity in both sides. This makes TA more complicated.
As easy as it was to understand the Weekly TF, it gets more complicated on the Daily one.
As I have often repeated, the cryptocurrency market is very young, with low liquidity, and therefore very volatile. There is a lack of rules, almost no discipline, which sometimes shows the intensity of the movements. Furthermore, when Institutional need to cover margin call on classics they don’t hesitate to purge their “crypto” positions, as we saw it in the past.
According to AR as of 15.08.22 (ICE level), we currently working on the same level. If we consider the Spike as of May 22 with a kind of TPO leaving (9%), we can appreciate a double bottom. There is 4 bearish divergences, plus 3 “Yellow candles”, if I consider the Spike as of 10.03.23 being a LPSY, we just slid into a new Fork, more practicable. I could not exclude a 3 taps (9% again). It become obvious.
Furthermore, We broke 8% , we might “BackUp” at least on this zone to confirm the continuation of the trend or break it to change the character. And since it’s in this area that our 200 Weekly is located, it would suit us well.
Distribution or Accumulation ?
As much as MarkUp 1 is clear and straightforward, MarkUp 2 seems to have been rushed and “destroyed”, with a possible QUASIMODO leaved ! This pullback below the VAH, with that kind of LVN that even a dentist would think twice about how to fill it, confirm that we are still in a PHASE B.
If so, POC level (9.66%) is inevitable ; VAL (9.35%) could be lapped, and I don’t exclude squeeze a Spring below 9% at most 7.74% (200 Weekly) with a pull back. This would be a PHASE C, according to push dominance above 11% quickly. Otherwise, it will be a never-ending day (new lap till ST level).
Below 9%, I would be like a Mowgli with this important question if I should be back to the Jungle once I leaved it!
We have time. “Yellow candle” H4 triggered20 (10.28%) and POC is a magnet. This could confirm my BTC projection.
Conclusion
What could be the catalyst the confirm me the end of this tremendous Bear ?
On fundamentals ! I am still negative on this market till we did not wash it definitely ! 1.8M tokens, over 700 exchanges…. don’t you think it’s a lot ?
There will be projects that will be disappear once MIL:BTC will break 25k. 20k will be catastrophic
we should try the be more objective on :
SMO might end in Ukraine by December.
Taïwan – China will the next step !!!!!!
ECOWAS (G7) vs. Free African countries (BRICS)
US elections 2024
Binance issue + different new cases to come…
MICA law + CBDC attempt (typically test the market to try to interfere).
I am not talking about my POV over dislocation of the Europe. And more much to come in the next years. I don’t know what is the global current use of DeFi tools. I stopped at 8% worldwide…. We just entered in the Digital AGE and decentralised systems become usual. The Adoption will take some time.
USDT.D 1W until the end of 2023USDT.D looks strong. Current correction should end in the next week at level 7.52%
Last week of September will kickstart USDT.D's powerful rise up to 8.36% or even 9.23%.
This rise will be followed by a healthy correction, which will end in mid October.
Both scenarios Fast and Slow agree to show a radical appreciation of USDT starting from 16 October.
Only in mid November we will see possible correction and domination of one scenario out of the two shown. USDT.D might respect level 9.23% for some time or it might breakout and rise to 15.94% in the course from mid November to mid January 2024.
Thus crypto market might depreciate 50% by the end of 2023.
Is it global financial crisis coming?
🔥 Stablecoins Predicted Bitcoin DUMP🚨 100% Accurate Signal!In this analysis I want to take a closer look at my previous relative Stablecoin marketcap analysis back in August.
To be more precise, I'm measuring the stablecoin marketcap as a percentage of the total marketcap, which constructs this bullish channel pattern.
To build it yourself, put this in the TV search bar: (CRYPTOCAP:USDT+CRYPTOCAP:USDC)/CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
In my previous analysis I mentioned that this "indicator" has a 100% correctness-rate at predicting Bitcoin dumps. As of now, it has correctly predicted 4 major BTC tops.
It's still unclear to me whether we're going up for a few weeks, or that we go up for months and that this indicator will retest the top resistance. From a long-term investing perspective, I hope that we go up for months and go for a retest. Crypto will be extremely cheap at that point with a high probability for gains in the future.
Do you enjoy this indicator? What is your view on the market? Share your thoughts in the comments 🙏
PYUSD - The PayPal StablecoinHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉
PayPal announced yesterday on August 7, 2023 that it has launched a U.S. dollar stablecoin, called PayPal USD (PYUSD) . PYUSD is fully backed by U.S. dollar deposits and short-term U.S. Treasuries, and is issued by Paxos Trust Company. It is available to PayPal customers in the United States with PayPal Balance accounts.
PayPal has partnered with Paxos to launch PYUSD. Paxos is a leading blockchain infrastructure company that specializes in stablecoins. Paxos also issues the BUSD stablecoin, which is used by Binance. PYUSD was first announced in January 2022, but its launch was delayed due to regulatory concerns. However, PayPal has since received approval from the New York State Department of Financial Services to issue PYUSD.
PYUSD is currently valued at $1.00 per token. It can be used to buy, sell, hold, and transfer funds on PayPal. It can also be used to make payments to merchants that accept PayPal.
PayPal has been crypto-friendly for some time. In addition to PYUSD, PayPal also offers four other cryptos: Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, and Litecoin. PayPal customers can buy, sell, hold, and transfer these cryptocurrencies on the PayPal platform.
PayPal's launch of PYUSD is a significant development in the cryptocurrency space. It is the first major financial technology firm to launch its own stablecoin . PayPal's move is likely to boost the adoption of stablecoins and cryptocurrencies in general.
💭 It's interesting to see how the fundamentals tend to follow the chart or vice versa. When we analyze the PayPal chart, we see a definitive completion of a bearish trend / downward cycle. According to Wyckoff Method and other market phases, the next cycle is the upward cycle / bullish phase. And so, this news comes at just the right time to kickstart a new market cycle!
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CryptoCheck
NASDAQ:PYPL
Update to Crypto cycle indicatorA couple days ago, I published this idea .
It's an idea taken from a setup Will Clemente published on Twitter last year as the crypto space was bottoming, more specifically, as Ethereum hit bottom.
He was using total market cap of USDT + USDC divided by total crypto market cap.
I've revised this to add the next two largest stable coins, DAI and BUSD, by marketcap. Log scale, draw parallel lines and see how it lines up with Bitcoin and Ethereum cycle highs.
It now shows more effectively tops and bottoms intracycle, meaning the summer 2021 selloff now touches the top line, which it did not do previously. The pump prior to the COVID low that coincided with bitcoin halving also gets much closer to the top line, providing a solid indication of another trade opportunity for the following months.
Now, what is interesting is when you plot Ethereum vs. this chart. You do start to notice some differences. Where Bitcoin tops in April 2021, Ethereum rocketed to wild new highs in May while BTC set a lower high, then the entire space sells off together.
They both bottom the same time in the summer, then the next top in November also happens at virtually the same time. So, "alt coin season" seemed to only apply to the April-May '21 timeframe, where after that they moved much more in tandem.
The bottom indicator in the 2022 selloff pinned the Ethereum bottom (it actually goes outside of the top parallel in this setup), but Bitcoin took longer to find bottom. But, unlike the original USDT+USDC/TOTAL chart, we still get a touch on the top line as Bitcoin does its first test below $16,000 in November. The ultimate bottom was only minimally lower in December, at which point the indicator had moved off the upper line, pointing to a bullish divergence despite the ultimate bottom price of the cycle.
Right now, we just set the BTC high coming off the 2022 lows, but Ethereum did not retest its highs at the same time. It set a lower high, which I take as yet one more indication that this is not the most bullish upwards move for the crypto space, combine that with the indicator crossing over that bottom line indicating a market top again, this makes me feel like this is not the place to buy Bitcoin or Eth. I'll wait for the next large dip, likely towards the end of this year, before finding another spot to go long for the big bull run setting up for the post halving bull run, 2024-2025.
Here is a chart of the indicator by itself without the double pane with BTC or ETH:
The 'formula' can be copied and pasted as follows: (CRYPTOCAP:USDT+CRYPTOCAP:USDC+CRYPTOCAP:DAI+GLASSNODE:BUSD_MARKETCAP)/CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
Then draw a parallel hitting the approximate tops and bottoms, using the logarithmic scale, though I'm more than happy letting the kind of extreme Ethereum '22 bottom be anomalously outside of the top parallel here in order to keep other indications of market bottoms more obvious.
🔥 Stablecoins Are Predicting A Massive DumpIn this analysis I want to take a look at the stablecoin (USDT/USDC) dominance. To construct this indicator yourself, simply put "(CRYPTOCAP:USDT+CRYPTOCAP:USDC)/CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL" in the symbol search area.
As seen on the chart, the stablecoin dominance (the stablecoin value / all crypto value) has been steadily rising over the years. There can be a multitude of reasons for the rise, but more important in this analysis is the fact that the stablecoin dominance seems to follow a clear bullish channel pattern, where it bounces from both the top resistance and the bottom support.
The stablecoin dominance is currently closing in rapidly on the bottom support. The last three times that the stablecoin dominance reached this support it always pinpointed a local Bitcoin top and signaled an incoming dump.
Will this happen again in the near future? We can't say for certain, but historically we're getting very close to a moment where Bitcoin can dump. There's definitely more room to grow, but risk is on the horizon.
Best case for the bulls would be that the dominance would fall through the support and continue to go down.
Dollar / Real (Brazil) possible targetting higher levelsTarget one is reached. Usually after a beautiful cup and handle like this one, we see further upward price actions. Fundamentally, I don't think Real will sustain this trend of being valued, since the current president is a former prisioner charged for corruption and recently has been seen in Dubai with his 30y younger spouse in a hotel costing 60,000 reais per person by night, using public money to afford the expenses. Taxation is going nuts all over the country again, the previous president had cut them all, and now they are all being reinstalled. Inflation will hit and it's interesting to watch the DXY chart. I am keeping my earning in dollars as long as I follow the continuation here.