#Stable Dominance , Dump will Continue, Here's Why!Once this pennant breaks below BTC is likely to hit $22.5k+.
Is it likely? I think Yes.
Lower support is around 4.14%
Once this level hits expect some correction in the market.
The charts show the possibility of the continuation of this uptrend.
Invalidation:- Break and close above 4.85%
Let me know what. you think.
Please hit the like button if you like it and share your views in the comment section.
Stay safe
#PEACE
Stablecoins
Market Dominance of different assets w and w/o stablecoins1. Bitcoin dominance w/ostablecoins
2. Bitcoin dominance with stablecoins
3. Altcoins dominance w/o ETH w/o Stablecoins
4. Altcoins dominance w/o ETH with stablecoins
5. ETH dominance w/ostablecoins
6. ETH dominance with stablecoins
7. Stablecoin dominance
📈 Tether Dominance, The Final ConfirmationIncredibly enough, some people still have doubt that Bitcoin and the Altcoins will continue to grow.
Here is the final confirmation in the form of a strongly bearish USDT.D chart.
Remember that one mentioning this thing is about "to speed'...
Well, this "thing" has more down to go before it finds support.
At least one more strong red candle, then a small bounce before more lows.
Namaste.
💵USD.Dominance Diverging⛽Fuel For Future Financial Flurry🤺👑
King Dollar Has Been Demonstrating It's
Dominance Over Markets, Especially Crypto Since
Bottoming In Quarter One Of 2021
Holding The Moniker Of The Dollar Prince
Even I've Been Surprised By The
Recent Strength, Though That Seems Set
To Finally Change
🔮
A Collection Of USD.D Stable Coin
Charts For Your Viewing Pleasure Below
Remember US Dollar Dominance Down =
Risky Markets Up
💹
As An Aside, So Much For
The Fed Printing All Dem Dollars
One Would Think QE Isn't Money
Printing After All..
🤔
USDT.D
USDC.D
DAI.D
TUSD.D
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D
CRYPTOCAP:USDC.D
CRYPTOCAP:DAI.D
CRYPTOCAP:TUSD.D
💸
MarketCap of Cryptocurrencies except stable coins (TOTAL-USD)ℹ️ This is the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies, excluding major stable coins (USDT, USDC, BUSD, DAI, GUSD, PAX, SUSD, USDK, EURS).
🟢The chart indicates a possible bear trap.
However, to be confirmed, the index needs to break through the resistance shown in the blue region above to have an upward confirmation.
If that happens, the LS Volatility Index is expected to drop to zero, indicating an approximation to the 21 moving average.
🔴In a bad scenario, the marketcap can reach new lows, possibly reaching the next Fibonacci level.
In that case, the LS Volatility Index would rise to 100, indicating an even greater deviation from the 21 average.
Crypto Market Risk ExposureThis layout is used to understand the level of risk exposure in the crypto market.
There are 3 data, in order from top to bottom:
1. USDT+USDC+DAI: Market Cap main stablecoins.
2. USDT.D+USDC.D+DAI.D: Dominance main stablecoins.
3. Bicoin/Dollar.
The data seen together makes us understand whether investors prefer to go risk-off or risk-on based on the divergence/convergence between the values of USDT.D+USDC.D+DAI.D and Bitcoin/Dollar. The more the two data diverge, the more investors take refuge in stablecoins, while the more the two data converge, the more investors buy BTC using stablecoins. As for the USDT+USDC+DAI data seen together with the other two, it serves to weigh the level of confidence in the crypto market during its phases, eg. the combination of flattening/reduction of the stablecoins market cap with the increase of their dominance makes us understand not only that investors are running away from BTC(and Alts) but also that they are making cash-out in FIAT, effectively removing ready liquidity on the market which will find it more difficult to recover in a short time(eg period from 2022-03-07 to 2022-07-12, historical record red candles on the W). Analyzing the last week instead we are seeing a change of direction, from divergence to convergence, the dominance of the stables has reached the peak and is now reversing heading towards the first support at 8.63%, while BTC is start climbing towards the resistance at 31.7k, in the meantime the market cap of the stables is continuing to fall in a first historical retracement, a sign that the market continues to lose ready liquidity to give a greater boost to BTC, also witnessed by the low trading volumes.
Peg of Stable CoinsStablecoins are cryptocurrencies whose value is pegged, or tied, to that of another currency, commodity, or financial instrument.
Stablecoins aim to provide an alternative to the high volatility of the most popular cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC), which has made crypto investments less suitable for common transactions.
(Investopedia)
This graph shows the pegged value of the main stable coins.
Ideally, the value should be 1:1.
In this crash scenario, I will stay alert on these values.
Stable Coins: Amount of Assets Held by WhalesThis graph shows the ranking of stable coins, according to the Amount of Assets Held by Whales (some stable coins don't have this information here).
Since May 02, 2022, BUSD has surpassed USDC in this indicator.
USDT remains relatively stable, and DAI was below $2 billion.
The PEG of these stable coins can be seen in this other analysis:
Dollar losing strength? Correlation with BitcoinThis is the Dollar dominance chart in the cryptocurrency world.
It has an inverse correlation to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies that are not stable coins:
The dominance index is exiting the bullish purple channel.
However, it is still above the red support region.
The scenario will be bullish if this dominance does not return to the purple channel, and break the red zone downwards.
If the scenario worsens, it will go back inside the channel and can test the top of 06/18/2022.
Which translates, conversely, to the bottom of the Bitcoin price could be retested.
In DXY, which measures the strength of the Dollar against other FIAT currencies, we have an ascending broadening wedge, the "megaphone" pattern.
To break this uptrend the index needs to first break the purple support region, and then break the lower wedge line downwards.
🎯 Stablecoins dominance - the DXY of Cryptoverse🎯 Today we'll have a look at the cumulated dominance of Tether USD, Circle USD and DAI in comparison with Bitcoin's price.
Since 2019 Stables dominance has been ranging inside this channel on the logarithmic chart.
The channel is moving upwards as more funds enter and remain in the cryptoverse.
As such, the dominance of Stables is highly dependent on interest in these assets, so I expect this channel to break at one point (at minimum due to saturation of the market). So far this channel has held.
Touches of the upper band marked bottoms for BTC, while touches of the lower band marked tops.
Thus, I'm looking at their dominance as inversely correlated with Bitcoin's price, similar to how DXY is inversely correlated with the stock market.
We are currently in an up move that's been trending the blue line since the 69k$ top.
Considering the channel holds, we can expect one of the two scenarios to develop and mark a reversal in the market.
This doesn't mean that it is the only way we are ending the bear market. However, I am watching this closely. 🎯
💎 Looking forward for your questions below. If this post provided you value, follow for more.
1 Year Of BTC El Salvador CelebratesEl Salvador has used Bitcoin for a year.
El Salvador started using Bitcoin as a legal tender a year ago after President Nayib Bukele made a contentious choice. The public welcomed the new chance with enthusiasm, but since then, Bitcoin's value has fallen, and some experts believe the initiative was a disaster.
Bitcoin is up 2.72% today, Ethereum is up 8%, and Solana is up nearly 5% as the cryptocurrency markets rebound.
This Thursday morning, cryptocurrency markets are up. Pololu, Polygon, and Ethereum have made gains. Shiba Inu and Dogecoin, two meme coins, have also increased in value over the past 24 hours. Volatility has been seen in stablecoins.
"More CBDC news," the Ripple advisor teases.
According to Ripple, it may soon reveal additional information regarding its central bank digital currency projects.
Advisor to the CBDC Antony Welfare
The last session saw a 3.1% increase in BTC/USD.
The latest session saw a massive 3.1% increase in the Bitcoin-Dollar pair. The MACD is sending a negative signal. Resistance is at 20712.8113, while support is at 17730.3773.
USDT warn! only the tokens on the PoS network will be redeemableGrayscale warning ahead of the Ethereum Merge: “issuers like Tether and CirclePay have stated that post-fork, only the tokens on the PoS (proof of stake) network will be redeemable”, so if the PoS-based Ethereum fork goes “live with a parallel DeFi ecosystem, collateralized with unredeemable stablecoins, users and smart contracts may attempt to liquidate positions on the new chain, contributing to sell pressure on the new token.”
The worst case scenario of the Merge is the collapse of Ethereum based stablecoins, so be careful with those.
August 23 BTCUSD BingX Chart Analysis and Today's HeadlineBingX’s Bitcoin Chart
According to CoinShare, Digital asset investment products saw minor outflows last week totalling US$9m last week with volumes at US$1bn, 55% off the year average and the 2nd lowest this year. Bitcoin price is almost flat over the past 24 hours. The relative strength index (RSI) is near the oversold zone, indicating that the bears have a significant advantage. For now, the bulls need to push the Bitcoin price above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($22,382) to avoid further decline.
Today’s Cryptocurrency Headline
UK Intends to Bring Stablecoins Under Regulation
A proposed bill could give U.K. regulators new powers over payments-focused crypto assets like stablecoins in September. The bill looks to expand existing financial regulations to cover payments-centric cryptocurrencies such as stablecoins, which are broadly defined as "digital settlement assets" (DSAs), and the bill also puts the UK Treasury in charge of defining what DSA are and gives the Bank of England (BoE), the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and the Payments Systems Regulator (PSR) corresponding powers to enforce the rules.
Disclaimer: BingX does not endorse and is not responsible for or liable for any content, accuracy, quality, advertising, products, or other materials on this page. Readers should do their own research before taking any actions related to the company. BingX is not responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods, or services mentioned in the article.
BTC.D+Stablecoin DominanceI think the days of just looking at BTC dominance are nearing its' end now that we have more stable (generally) crypto options to "cash out" to. Before USDT/USDC, bitcoin was the safest to cash out to. I calculated dominance of top 50 overall market cap stablecoins BUSD, USDC, USDT and DAI and then added BTC.D. This way we can paint a picture of overall market risk on vs off, removing the impact trading between BTC and stablecoins has on BTC.D alone.
Equation plugged into TradingView: BTC.D+(GLASSNODE:BUSD_MARKETCAP+GLASSNODE:USDT_MARKETCAP+GLASSNODE:USDC_MARKETCAP+CRYPTOCAP:DAI)/CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL*100
Any comments, questions/concerns are more than welcome!
Dominance of stable coins in an important regionJust remembering that the dominance of stable coins is inversely correlated to the price of other cryptocurrencies.
When dominance rises, the price of Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptos commonly fall.
We are on an ABC correction within the bearish leg of wave 5.
The yellow circles demonstrate an important pullback region, where we are right now.
The chart is dangerously inside a bullish descending wedge.
I believe the value will break out of the red bearish channel going up, and retest the rectangular region (0.214 retracement).
In my opinion, this will be the moment of truth.
If stable coins do not break this retraction, we will have new lows.
On the other hand, if they break out of this region going higher, we will have a longer leg up.
In a short-term optimistic scenario, the value could break out of this red channel going lower, and retest the last low, what would be bullish for non-stable cryptocurrencies.
Below is a parallel scenario of the Bitcoin chart.
Vertical green lines demonstrate pullback points.
In Bitcoin's bullish channel, it remains to be seen whether the price will stay above the middle of this channel, or if it will go all the way to the bottom.
Bitcoin macro analysis (BTC/USD Index)Hello how are you?
On the long-term chart BTC follows a bullish channel.
It looks like he is testing the 38% Fibonacci retracement.
I placed the retracement considering the bottom of March 9, 2020 and the top of March 08, 2021.
Why did I consider these dates?
Explanation below.
BTC/USD indexed on Nasdaq
As Nasdaq is strongly correlated with BTC lately,
I analyzed in a separate chart the price of BTC indexed on the NDX.
Also on the same bull channel:
As we can see, we have the last bottom on March 9, 2020 and the last top on March 08, 2021.
Then, tracing the Fibonacci retracement by joining these dates, we saw that the price corrected until the 50% correction
Maybe test again? I don't know.
Fibonacci Channel
Reached -50% retraction.
Stochastic RSI, RSI and 100-month smoothed exponential moving average
On the monthly chart the price is in a theoretically cheap region, rarely seen.
On the RSI, the indicator broke the historic low.
And the stochastic RSI is still pointing down. When it starts to turn upwards it will be a good sign.
Another interesting sign is the 100-month regularized exponential moving average, as circled.
On-chain data
The volume of BTC on the network indicates important points.
In the yellow circles, where we had high volume on the Bitcoin network, this foreshadowed a strong swing in price, both up and down.
The percent of circulating supply that has not moved in at least 1 year
This indicator appears to be reversing downwards, which indicates that the circulating supply that has been idle for at least 1 year is starting to move.
We can see an inverse relationship as shown by the arrows.
Drawdown
In the past there was a drop of 87%, 80% and 82% approximately.
Now we're down 70%.
Have already fixed everything, or will you test that red diagonal channel, correcting 74% or more?
Stable coins dominance (dollar strength in the crypto market)
The dominance of the three main stable coins (USDT, USDC and DAI) has an inverse correlation to BTC.
When it goes up, the price of BTC goes down, and vice versa.
We have a bullish channel on the stable coin dominance chart, and when dominance reaches the top channel, it is usually a great buy signal, as shown in green circles.
Dollar dominance in the traditional market
Tested 50% Fibo retracement.
Hope this helps.
USDT.D / BTC comparison 19/07Tether and stablecoins flowing into alts, BTC dominance leave space for ETH
the last bull run all started with prolonged BTC.D growth,
an altseason at that point could hurt some more BTC and prevent dubious coins to be purged,
but it can also reward bold and innovative project.
Not sure what to think of the recent PA,
lot of similarity with previous bear flag before the drop to 17600$
Best Case Scenario: TRX is going to $250In the realistic possibility that a vast majority of TRX is burnt in the next year, we could see a hyper deflationary spiral causing TRX to increase 35x-100x in market cap, and 3000x in price.
Based on the average burn rate of 284 million TRX per day since USDD launched, it's possible that 99% of the circulating supply of TRX is removed from circulation over the next year or so. This means there could be only 1 billion TRX in circulation in the near future, and a price of $250 per TRX is realistic in that scenario because it would be a market cap of only $250 billion, still significantly smaller than what Bitcoin is today and roughly equal to Ethereum's current market cap. It should also be noted that BTC and ETH are expected to increase over this period of time as well to several trillion market cap each.
There are 32 billion TRX staked and the TRON DAO holds about 28 billion TRX , that leaves less than 45 billion TRX currently "circulating," though at the right price many people will begin unstaking and selling. These sales will likely end up getting burnt by USDD redemptions or network fees, ultimately moving the supply that is available for sale closer to 0.
Even if the available supply remains around 10 billion TRX (minus TRON DAO coins which will likely be burnt or remain off the market during this time) a $250 price and $2.5 trillion market cap is still possible and would be much smaller than BTC would be at that point, assuming Bitcoin likely goes to at least $200k-$1m
If the giga bull scenario doesn't happen a move to $10 is still very likely as the supply should remain hyper deflationary to keep up with the demand for USDD for the foreseeable future. A move to $10 at 10 billion supply would be only $100 billion market cap which is less than half of what ETH is today, and again ETH could also be expected to rise to $10-20k over the same period making it's market cap well into the trillions.
Eventually demand for USDD will begin to reverse when collateralization becomes riskier and interest rates are cut, leading to people redeeming USDD for TRX , and likely causing a massive correction in TRX . possibly larger than the -97% correction we saw after the 2018 peak, and in a worst case scenario TRX could end up in a death spiral like LUNA if the USDD peg is broken and redemptions are not paused soon enough.
I think that the TRON DAO Reserve will learn from LUNA's mistakes, and that USDD will ultimately have much better collateralization, and in the risk of a death spiral redemptions for TRX will be paused before the supply of TRX becomes too large like what happened with LUNA. The death spiral may actually be avoided by simply cutting the APR when collateralization becomes too low, which LUNA and UST never did and that led to UST being undercollateralized. By cutting the APR they also cut the demand which can lead to a more orderly exit from USDD, rather than everyone rushing for the exit at the same time like with UST .
As people exit USDD in a more orderly fashion the collateralization levels become greater and the risk of a death spiral decreases to near 0. The catch is if USDD is collateralized by risky assets like BTC or TRX , then there is systemic risk if those assets suddenly crash and now the reserve dollar value has rapidly declined to less than the total issuance of USDD. For now there are enough stablecoins to back USDD at greater than 1:1 ratio so there is virtually no risk of a death spiral, but even an orderly exit from USDD will cause downward pressure on TRX prices.
Even without a death spiral a massive correction is likely after a move to triple digits, especially when the TRON DAO Reserve is forced to eventually cut USDD rates, which will put downward pressure on TRX as capital begins to leave USDD and the supply of TRX may actually begin to increase. The key is for the TDR to avoid a hyperinflationary spiral by taking on too much debt, much like when a central bank takes on too much debt and their currency begins to hyperinflate to pay for this debt.
While the exact price may not be clear at this point, what is clear is that TRX's supply has entered into a hyper deflationary spiral and if it keeps up at the rate it is going a vast majority of TRX will be burnt in a year, and the price of TRX is going to have to go much higher to meet the demand for USDD issuance and 30% APR that is offered by USDD staking.
Even if the market cap remains the same the price could still increase by 10-100x over the next year or two because the supply of TRX is rapidly declining and that trend is likely to continue as long as USDD APR remains high and the TRON DAO Reserve remains overcollateralized.
I would watch for resistance around psychological levels because that is likely where the most sell liquidity will be found to meet the demand of USDD redemptions, around $1 (61.8 extension), $10 (1.0 extension), $100, and finally $250 (161.8 extension of wave-E )
#USDT potential Head and shoulders pattern. #Crypto relief rallyMass hysteria and panic was achieved this week
similar to past capitulations
We are due a bounce.
Let's watch & see how it plays out...
I am long ETH spot, and quite happy at picking up a long term bag for close to an 80% discount.
Arthur Hayes has a 10K target which i concur with.
USDT dominance exactly @TL where BTC bottomed 3x; BTC to rally?USDT can be used to predict when this stablecoin rotates back into BTC & Altcoins. In the past 3 times, BTC bottommed out at exactly this trendline. Now it overshot the TL but quickly retraced exactly on the TL at 7.72% dominance forming a long red hammer in daily.. Will this again signal another BTC shortterm bottom with 21000 holding?
Looking at the distance inside the wedge formed by the 2 blue upper & lower trendlines, it seems like a big rally in crypto is coming if USDT dominance is to retrace back to the lower wedge @3.74% dominance where approximately the weekly wma200 or 150 is projected to cross.
Not trading advice