DYDX/USDT - Stage 2 BreakoutA breakout to Stage 2 by DYDX/USDT. Can expect to reach FIB retracement of 0.5% (14)
Stageanalysis
$RBLX - Continuation of Stage 4?Dear all,
In a weak market, I look for stage 4 breakouts and continuation pattersn (based on the famous Stan Weinstein).
I try to look for bear flags that fall together with downsloping 50 day sma (or at least very close, a few %s).
Roblox had a gap down 15dec on big volume, price is now trying to fill the gap.
While it is trying to fill the gap it is forming a potential bearish flag.
If the gap is filled, price would coincide with the decling 50dma, AVWAP from recent high and the downtrending resistance line (since august).
When this point is reached (and only when), and price is resisted at the 50dma or breaks the flag, this could be a good entry for buyings some puts (3 months out).
Possible stoploss could be the long term downtrending resistance line or 50dma.
Things to consider for a stage 4:
- weak overall market :check
- declining 30 week Ma :check
- declining 10 week Ma :check
- 10 w underneath 30w :check
- Loss of trendline :TBA
Extra reasons for stage 4 decline:
- Big volume on down days
- Gap downs
- Resistance of AVWAP of important dates
UPS- Continuation of stage 4 decline?Dear all,
In a weak market, I look for stage 4 breakouts and continuation pattersn (based on the famous Stan Weinstein).
I try to look for bear flags that fall together with downsloping 50 day sma (or at least very close, a few %s).
This is the case for UPS.
After a last few good months for UPS, a possible bear flag is forming that coincides with a support/resisistance level and a downsloping 50d sma.
The AVWAP of the latest High and Low are also above the current price, giving extra pressure for a downturn (since the sellers are in control).
Things to consider for a stage 4:
- declining 30 week Ma :check
- declining 10 week Ma :check
- 10 w underneath 30w :check
- Loss of trendline :TBA
I will open some puts (3 months out) when the price breaks $173.3 or the striped support line.
Possible stop loss could be the 50d SMA or the AVWAP of the low.
LKNCY - Breakout Entered Advance StageLKNCY has made a powerful breakout from its accumulation zone. This breakthrough came on the back of strong quarterly earnings, positive net income, and growing revenue.
INTRODUCTION:
LKNCY is a strong rival of Starbucks in China. It is rapidly adding new stores, reaching the nationwide number of nearly 8,000. In contrast, Starbucks has 6,000 stores in China despite its decades-long presence.
BREAKOUT & ADVANCE STAGE:
When a stock enters Advance Stage (called as Stage-2), its movement gets fast particularly when it is supported by strong earnings. LKNCY stayed in Accumulation Zone (Stage-1) rangebound for almost 2 years while the company did not post positive earnings for many years. But now, it has broken the resistance of accumulation stage, and entered advance stage on the back of impressive quarterly earnings.
EARNINGS GROWTH
Luckin's post-quarter revenue is up 18% while post-quarter earning has expanded a whopping 561%. Its earning trend and footprint growth in China shows it to be a truly growth stock. It has had negative margin for the past few years which kept its price growth lurking and slow. However, its revenue growth has never slowed down because of its rapid expansion and widening customer base.
FUTURE PROSPECTS
Although not enough data is available about the future growth of LKNCY, its current growth trend reveal good prospects for the future. Its technicals are sound and financials are rapidly improving.
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Clearly all are below the purple line (200D SMA) and clearly in Stage 4 downtrend (as per Stage Analysis criteria).
This mean "no-touch" for me. Actually the clear sign to get out for INVESTORS (not traders) should have been all the way back in January!
MNST - Trying to break out inverse head and shoulderInverse head and shoulder clearly visible from the weekly chart.
Formation started in april/may 2021 --> big base, big breakout.
Showing strenght during weak day.
Above 10 & 30 EMA Weekly, in stage 2 (Stan Weinstein) since middle of october.
PEG on earnings (04/11)
Entered $105 jan calls @$99
Using AVWP of PEG as stop loss ($98)
good luck
Mark Minervini's Trend-TemplateIn the last tutorial, we have highlighted the importance to look for stocks in a confirmed stage 2 uptrend and explained why.
But how can we use technical chart analysis can be used to identify stocks in a stage 2 uptrend?
US investment champion Mark Minervini developed the so-called Trend-Template which can be used to screen for stocks in a confirmed stage 2 uptrend.
TradingView provides all of the relevant tools to automate this screening process. The following section summarizes the technical characteristics which must be met so that a stage 2 uptrend for a stock can be confirmed:
Trend-Template to confirm a STAGE 2 Uptrend
1. Stock price is above both the 150-day (30-week) and the 200-day (40-week) moving average price lines.
2. The 150-day moving average is above the 200-day moving average.
3. The 200-day moving average line is trending up for at least 1-month (preferably 4-5 months minimum).
4. The 50-day (10-week moving average) is above both the 150-day and the 200-day moving averages.
5. The current stock price is at least 25% above its 52-week low. (Many of the best selections will be 100%, 300% or even greater above their 52-week low before they emerge from a sound consolidation period and mount a large-scale advance).
6. The current stock price is within at least 25% of its 52-week high (the closer to a new high the better).
7. The relative strength ranking (as reported in Investor’s Business Daily) is no less than 70, but preferably in the 90s, which will generally be the case with the better selections.
8. Current price is trading above the 50-day moving average (exception “Low Cheat” setups
Remark for 7: the relative strength ranking as reported by IBD is only accessible for IBD embers but the TradingView indicator 'Relative Strength (IBD Style)' by SKYTE can be used as an alternative.
We at JS-TechTrading only consider stocks for our watchlists which are meeting all characteristics of Minervini's trend-template. Additionally, we are screening stocks for solid fundamentals using William o' Neils' CAN-SLIM methodology. This screening process in itself provides us with a significant competitive edge versus most other traders are doing.
Trading with the Trend - Stage AnalysisThe trend is your friend. This is a very old but true quote.
Why is that?
• 98% of big winning stock made the largest portion in their gain in a Stage 2 uptrend
• Evidence that institutions are buying
• Increase probability of success
• Know what to expect under specific conditions – point of reference
Your goal is not to buy at the lowest price – It’s to buy at the right price!
Every stock goes through the same stock maturation cycle - it starts at stage 1 and ends at stage 4 as shown in the chart.
Stage One – Neglect Phase – Consolidation
Stage Two – Advancing Phase – Accumulation
Stage Three – Topping Phase – Distribution
Stage Four – Declining Phase – Capitulation
Our JS-TechTrading strategy focuses on identifying stocks in stage 2 uptrends. By doing that, we create an edge over long-term investors and less proficient traders. By focusing on stocks in a stage 2 uptrend, we avoid losing money or breaking even over a long period of time and we are fully invested when stocks are in their stage 2 uptrends so that we can accumulate money within the shortest period of time.
SBUX – Stage 2 Breakout AttemptSBUX is making the Stage 2 breakout attempt this week on approaching 2x the average weekly volume, with Relative Strength (RS) strongly outperforming the S&P 500 and the Stage Analysis Technical Attributes (SATA) indicator increasing to an 8 out of 10 on Wednesday on the breakout day. But it has fallen back to a SATA 8 today on the general market weakness, but price action is holding above the breakout with an inside day so far.
The indicators shown are three different style versions of the Stage Analysis Technical Attributes indicator, which is available to add in the community scripts.
After three bases stock tend to give up gains - with exampleAfter three bases, stock tends to give up gains - for example
Stage analysis is key for stock investing.
Learn how to count the base correctly, and you will save
Proto Labs in Stage 1 ready to launchRSI has bottomed, MACD in an uptrend. Poking it's head above 30week MA with earnings on deck. If this stays above 30 week MA and closes week post earnings above 30 week MA this will be entering stage 2 with clear stops below 30 week MA for a great risk reward profile. This stock has been bottoming and forming a base for months.
ABCL Possible Stage 2?I'm a novice learning The Man's ways. My crayon drawing on this chart appears to be a close to a Stage 2 breakout. I think. Since ABCL is a yungun' I substituted the 150 for the 50.
Anyone else have an opinion?
XBI looks like a current leading sector.
I still feel its early but I just do what the chart is telling me... or technically the book is telling me what the chart is telling me. Is this a debt spiral?????
Low Risk Entry on SU with high upsideGreat opportunity to buy just above 200 day MA as the energy sector breaks out. This looks like a stage 2 breakout, clearly defined exit below 200 day MA. $1 or $2 downside vs high upside
$MOS Stage analysisMosaic beautiful textbook stage analysis chart. Went into into Stage 2 and ripped from 15-20 zone to a high of 79.28.
Was this the "climatic top" and now going into distribution and stage 3 ?
As of now, MOS is barely hanging on to 30 week MA and flashing warning signs. Technically it may still see more upside and continue to new highs, however now trading below the 10 week MA which is turning down and recent market weakness it appears Mosaic is now in Stage 3 distribution.
For the bulls, Price needs to reclaim the 10 week MA and close above 62 before I begin to think this bull run is still on.
For the shorts, I'd be looking to target 47 first PT followed by 30 zone to cover. Watching for a bounce to 60 zone for good short entry adding upon confirmation and further adds with close below the 30wkMA.
Cheers
OLLI trend reversal possibility. Nice stage 1 shifting absolutely beautiful into stage 2 possibble pullback reentry if stop loss get hunted. Emotions IN CHECK. Rules are followed strictly. Always remember trading is a game of probability. A+ setups only.
<<Weinstein Stage Analysis>>Hey folks! Welcome to my post on Weinstein Stage Analysis on TSM.
Background: Stage Analysis is a topic Stan Weinstein discussed in his book from 1988 “Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets“, where he details his classic four stage breakout method for identifying the best quality stocks to buy and sell in any market environment.
Stage 1- The basing:
Stage 1 occurs when a stock bottoms and forms a horizontal consolidation. New shareholders replace the old ones, in turn replacing fear with hope that will eventually turn into greed.
Accumulation tends to speed up near the end of the pattern, triggering a set of higher-than-average volume spikes that show enthusiastic buying interest. On-balance volume (OBV) and other accumulation-distribution tools bottom out with price and turn higher, reflecting the newly bullish technical outlook. Watch closely when these indicators show greater upside than price action within the base, because this can signal an impending breakout that sets off Stage 2.
Stage 2 - The Advance:
Stage 2 occurs when the price has broken out of the consolidation in stage 1. It triggers a bullish uptrend where the price stays above the 30 Week MA. You will also notice that the stock will outperform the S&P 500 during this stage.
Stage 3 - Consolidation:
When the price of the stock crosses below the 30 Week MA, it is safe to assume that stage 3 is happening where the price is in a long consolidation. The price of the stock fails to reach higher highs and the stock tend to underperform the S&P 500.
Stage 4 - Decline:
Stage 4 typically occurs when the price of the stock breaks below a long term support during the stage 3 consolidation. It usually starts with high volume and ends in low volume. Short positions taken early in a downtrend carry higher risk and higher reward than late in the decline.
Conclusion:
Stan Weinstein's stage analysis is a very powerful tool for longer term trading (mainly on the weekly chart) and risk management. Another great example using the Weinstein stage analysis is PYPL where you can clearly see the stock following the stage analysis patterns.
Is Tesla in a stage 4 decline?Looking at the chart of NASDAQ:TSLA , it's now trading below the 30 weekly exponential moving average. Is the stock now in a stage 4 decline? I don't have a position here and not keen on owning the stock until it bottoms and trade above the 30 wEMA again.
VWTR Good Entry Point on back test of 30 week MAVWTR broke out on huge volume in June/July and I had it marked on my watchlist for a pullback. For the first time since the breakout, it is re-testing the 30 week moving average currently at 11.48. Set a low last week and this morning at 11.44 and is now reversing perfectly off the 30 week MA. Good long term long entry with a stop below the 30 week moving average or below the 200 day MA which sits about a buck lower. I'll be adding to a position here. If it breaks the 30 week MA I would still hold and see reaction at 200 day MA.
DLF - Ascending channel - Weekly TFDLF - Weekly TF - Moving in an ascending channel. Currently bouncing from the bottom of the channel. Trading above 30 WEMA suggests in Stage 2 Uptrend. MACD on daily TF has seen a crossover. RS is positive. Will be weak if closes below 30WEMA.
Only for educational purposes, not a buy/sell recommendation.
Low Risk Entry on TELL with High Upside Tell has a 20 month consolidation after the February/March 2020 collapse. Now the sector is breaking out and it is above the 30 week moving average at $3.34. You can set a stop below the 30 week moving average. I would be accumulating shares between the 10 week moving average at $3.47 and the September High of $4.27. Once it clears the September high it should be off to the races. A conservative approach would be to set a buy stop at $4.28 but I like accumulating between $3.47 and $4.27. First target is the pre-covid $6.44. I'll be riding stage 2 breakout.
TELL BUY LOW ON MONTHLY CHARTLooking at the Monthly instead of the weekly the 12 month or 1 year moving average looks to be a great trend line that held in April, August, and hopefully now in November. The 12 month MA is sitting at $3.27 and the 200 day MA sits at $3.29, they should hold, and if they hold at the end of November, this will prove to be a great buy low spot.
