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Stagflation

BITCOIN '' 4 November 2024''When Bitcoin was first introduced by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto in 2008, it generated a wide range of reactions and predictions from various sectors, including technology enthusiasts, economists, and financial experts. Here are some of the early predictions and opinions about Bitcoin: 1. **Skepticism and Dismissal**: - Many mainstream financial experts and economists were highly skeptical of Bitcoin. They saw it as a speculative bubble, similar to previous economic bubbles. For instance, economist Nouriel Roubini famously dismissed Bitcoin, predicting its eventual collapse. - Warren Buffett, a renowned investor, called Bitcoin "rat poison squared" and cautioned investors to stay away from it. 2. **Enthusiasm from Technologists**: - Among technologists and early adopters, there was significant enthusiasm. They saw Bitcoin as a revolutionary technology with the potential to disrupt the traditional financial system. The decentralized nature of Bitcoin and the underlying blockchain technology were particularly praised. - Hal Finney, a noted cryptographer, was one of the earliest supporters and received the first Bitcoin transaction from Satoshi Nakamoto. 3. **Libertarian Support**: - Bitcoin garnered considerable support from libertarians and those advocating for financial privacy and freedom. They viewed Bitcoin as a tool to circumvent government control and provide individuals with greater financial autonomy. 4. **Media Coverage**: - Early media coverage was a mix of curiosity and skepticism. Some articles highlighted the potential of Bitcoin to change the world, while others focused on its association with illicit activities due to its pseudonymous nature. 5. **Comparison to Gold**: - Some early proponents referred to Bitcoin as "digital gold," emphasizing its potential as a store of value. This comparison was made due to Bitcoin's limited supply (21 million coins) and its potential to act as a hedge against inflation and economic instability. 6. **Volatility Concerns**: - Many critics pointed to Bitcoin's extreme volatility as a major drawback, arguing that it would prevent Bitcoin from being used as a stable medium of exchange or store of value. Here are a few notable early quotes and predictions: - **Satoshi Nakamoto (2008)**: "I've been working on a new electronic cash system that's fully peer-to-peer, with no trusted third party." - **Hal Finney (2009)**: "Thinking about how to reduce CO2 emissions from a widespread Bitcoin implementation." - **Paul Krugman (2013)**: "Bitcoin is evil" - reflecting his strong skepticism and belief that Bitcoin would not succeed. Despite the mixed predictions and opinions, Bitcoin has grown significantly since its inception, influencing financial markets, inspiring numerous other cryptocurrencies, and sparking widespread interest in blockchain technology.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TrojanBible
1
Why Large Firms with Huge Cash? Small Firm Are Leading...Berkshire Hathaway, an investment company is not investing. What is the signal? Why are they hoarding cash? • Not much good investment opportunity ahead • Preparing for tougher time E-mini S&P 500 Futures & Options Ticker: ES Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $12.50 Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures & Options Ticker: MES Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $1.25 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:M2K1!
by konhow
3
Month on Month US Inflation Harmonically Set to Rise to 1.94%This is a followup to this year-on-year inflation chart idea posted back in June 2022: The YoY US Inflation rate has been on a trend of going down since it tested the 1.414 PCZ of the Bearish Butterfly above, but recently we have seen the MoM rate slow its descent and form a bottoming pattern with MACD Hidden Bullish Divergence at the 200-Month SMA and now we can see that the MACD has crossed positively as the inflation rate has broken out of its recent range. This harmonically puts it into position where we will likely see it at least hit the 0.886 retrace to complete a small bat pattern, but it could go out of control and go as high as the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension area all the way at about 1.94%. One reason I suspect for the sudden stop of the inflationary decline is due to the Fed not raising rates high enough, fast enough, and then keeping them the same for the last few months. It would also seem that the year-on-year inflation rate is setting up for a similar rise, showing Hidden Bullish Divergence at the Moving Averages and likely one that will result in it going to test higher highs to around its 1.414-1.618 PCZ once area once more before ultimately crashing back down from these highs once the Fed starts to go heavy on rate hikes again. Though the timeframe may be shorter than how it is presented on the chart, I do still suspect we will have action resembling what is projected on the chart below until the Fed starts rising rates aggressively again: This does not mean I think stocks will go up, that the dominance of the dollar will go down, or even that I think the consumer credit situation will improve. Instead, I think the rise in inflation will be fueled by energy, import, and export costs, and that this will be very bad for: Stocks, Consumers, REITs, and Banks overall, and that the Bond Yields will continue to rise at an accelerated rate.
ECONOMICS:USIRMMLong
by RizeSenpai
The Great StagflationIn this post, I will present a compendium of higher timeframe charts to show why it's likely that the U.S. economy, and likely much of the global economy as well, is heading into a period of stagflation. I have termed this coming period "The Great Stagflation" because I believe this is how the mid-2020s will be characterized in retrospect. The term stagflation refers to a period when economic growth slows or declines, unemployment increases and inflation remains elevated. To listen to my full thoughts on stagflation, and my thoughts on why I believe we're already in a recession, you can watch my video below. Chart 1 - S&P 500 Yearly Chart (SPX) This chart shows a downward oscillation of the Stochastic RSI on the yearly chart of the S&P 500 index (SPX). This degree of strong downward momentum on the yearly chart of SPX is rare and has only occurred just three times in the past 100 years: the Great Depression, the 1970s Stagflation, and the Dotcom Bust. In each case, the stock market stagnated for a period of at least a decade. Chart 1a This chart shows the several important Fibonacci levels on the highest timeframe on the S&P 500 (SPX). What this chart shows is that the market bottom in 2022 was right at the 3rd Fibonacci extension, when using the peak before the Great Depression and the lowest ever price for SPX as our reference point. It's possible that if the stock market falls below the market bottom from 2022 decisively, the next major Fibonacci support on the highest timeframe will be all the way down at the Dotcom peak (or pre-Great Recession peak), which is the 2.618 Fibonacci extension. This price level is highlighted in red. Chart 2 - Producer Price Index (PPIACO) This chart shows the Producer Price Index by Commodity: All Commodities (PPIACO). The Producer Price Index is a measure of the average change in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. It is calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and is reported on a monthly basis. It covers a wide range of commodities, including those used as inputs for goods, services, and construction, and is grouped into various stages of production, such as raw materials, intermediate goods, and finished goods. The Producer Price Index can be used as a leading indicator of Consumer Price Index (CPI). As we see in this yearly chart, the Stochastic RSI is showing strong upward momentum that is rising up from oversold conditions. This type of upward oscillation can add inflationary pressure for years to come, and can set the stage for stagflation. Chart 3 - Stock Market Deflation vs. Commodity Price Inflation This chart shows the S&P 500 index (SPX) compared against the Producer Price Index by Commodity: All Commodities (PPIACO). During periods of stagflation, the SPX/PPIACO ratio oscillates downward as commodity price inflation causes the Federal Reserve to tighten the money supply to curtail inflation. As a result, the stock market declines as commodity prices inflate. Thus, the yearly chart of the SPX/PPIACO ratio could be sending a warning that what we are dealing with is a period of prolonged stock market stagnation. Chart 4 - Stock Market to the Moon These quarterly (3-month) charts show the entire price history of the U.S. stock market (SPX) dating back to 1871. I applied a log-linear regression channel to give a rough approximation of the extent to which the stock market has deviated from its mean, or average price, over the years. In the fourth quarter of 2021 (Q4 2021), the stock market closed exactly at the +2 standard deviation from its mean price, the highest ever recorded on a quarterly closing basis. The chart on the right side shows a zoomed-in view, which shows how perfectly SPX reached the +2 standard deviation before declining. The mean or average price, which is visualized in the chart as the red line, is so far down, that it does not even appear on the zoomed-in chart. To put the meteoric rise of the stock market during the period of limitless monetary easing into perspective: It has been so extreme that it has actually rendered the extreme bubble of the Roaring '20s, before the Great Depression, as merely being an average stock market valuation. Chart 5 - Supercycle Bearish Divergence This chart ominously shows a major bearish divergence on the yearly chart of the S&P 500 index (SPX). Bearish divergence is when price creates a higher high while the RSI creates a lower high. Bearish divergence can warn of a coming reversal, as it reflects the notion that the bull run is becoming exhausted. Looking back 150 years, such an extreme bearish divergence has actually never occurred before on the yearly chart. This multi-decade bearish divergence could be indicating the start of a new Supercycle, or potentially even the start of a new Grand Supercycle -- one in which the stock market underperforms for years to come, as interest rates, or the cost of money, trends higher. Only time will tell how this will unfold, but this chart provides further evidence that we're likely entering a period that will be characterized by prolonged stock market stagnation. Chart 5a Volume has been declining during the formation of this bearish divergence. Chart 6 - Stock Market Growth vs. GDP Growth This quarterly chart shows Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on the left and the stock market (SPX) on the right. Applied to both charts is a log-linear regression channel. Notice how GDP is barely hanging on to the -2 standard deviation at a time when the stock market has blasted up to the +2 standard deviation. This extreme divergence has been made possible solely by the Federal Reserve's monetary easing experiment. The Federal Reserve has compensated for declining GDP growth by lowering interest rates even faster than GDP growth declines. By doing this, the Federal Reserve has made the cost of money so low that risk assets were able to rally, even as actual increases in productivity did not occur. The extreme divergence of extreme stock market outperformance coupled with extreme GDP growth underperformance is unsustainable, particularly in the face of commodity inflation. The Great Stagflation will likely see stock market returns stagnate, which in turn will more accurately reflect stagnating economic growth. The cycle of boom and bust is largely an inevitable eventuality. Chart 7 - Price of Stocks vs. Price of Bonds In a prior post, I discussed the meaning of this chart. Simply put, this ratio chart compares the price of the S&P 500 Index to the price of a risk-free Treasury bond (defined here as the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond). I applied a log-linear regression channel to illustrate the fact that despite all the tightening that the Federal Reserve has already undertaken, we are only just now at the historical mean for this ratio chart. What I am about to say next is quite dense, but see if you can understand my logic: Since the numerator of this ratio chart (SPX) currently has strong downward Stochastic RSI momentum on its yearly chart (which is depicted in Chart 1 above), and since this ratio chart has strong upward momentum on its yearly chart, then this suggests that the denominator (the price of a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond, written here as the inverse of its yield {1/US10Y}) is likely to head down faster than numerator (SPX) does, thereby allowing the ratio to move up and reach the +2 standard deviation of the regression channel. Since the price of bonds moves inversely to the yield, this ratio chart is ominously warning that the yields on 10-year Treasury bonds may move much higher in the years to come. If Treasury yields are moving higher this is likely because inflation continues to be persistent. Such a tight monetary environment, coupled with persistent inflation, is likely to result in stagflation. To read more on the meaning of this chart, you can view my post below. Chart 7a This chart is similar to the previous, except that real rates are used. With real rates rising so drastically (and therefore bringing down bond prices) as a ratio to the S&P 500, it creates the appearance that the stock market is becoming more and more overvalued, even as it nonetheless sells off! This reflects a massive dislocation in capital. Over time, capital will flow out of the stock market and into less-risky and higher-yielding Treasury bonds, particularly since commodity inflation is unlikely to abate and thus Treasury yields will remain elevated. Chart 8 - The Real Cost of Apple (AAPL) This chart shows the price of Apple's stock (AAPL) compared against the price of a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond. Over the past year, Apple's great balance sheet and high cash flow, has made it seem like a safe haven relative to more speculative risk assets and companies with negative cash flow. Yet, when compared against the actual safe-haven asset (the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond), the premium in Apple's price could not be higher. The price of AAPL for the current yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury reflects a capital dislocation (the biggest ever). In other words, too much capital is in Apple's stock for the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury to be as high as it currently is. An efficient market would cause capital to flow out of Apple's stock and into less-risky and higher-yielding U.S. Treasury bonds over time, especially since persistent inflation is likely to keep Treasury yields higher for longer. Since Apple is a component of many exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and mutual funds, the decline in its value may cause the entire stock market to decline. As unemployment rises, the stream of passive contributions to mutual funds and ETFs will slow and reverse as drawdowns and hardship withdrawals increase. Higher unemployment will also lead to less consumer spending on Apple's products and services causing an earnings recession. Finally, rising geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China may severely disrupt supply chains. Apple stands to gain little, but lose a lot in the years to come. Chart 9 - High-Yield Corporate Bonds vs. Money Supply The symbol in chart is a bit dense to understand, but upon deciphering it, one can understand that it warns of a coming liquidity crisis for companies with lower credit ratings. First, BAMLH0A0HYM2EY is the symbol for the all-in effective rate of high-yield corporate bonds. This represents the cost of borrowing for companies with lower credit ratings. Second, the denominator is the M2 money supply in the U.S. Finally, the chart is adjusted by an arbitrary multiplier to remove visual distortion. The effective yield that companies (which the market considers to be risky) must pay on their bonds has increased rapidly relative to the supply of money, the latter of which has actually been decreasing at a record pace. This is a liquidity crisis in the making for companies that have low credit ratings and which need constant infusions of new debt to maintain financial viability. If the amount of money needed to finance new debt is increasing at a record pace as the supply of money decreases at a record pace, then the amount of money in the economy available for these companies to earn, so as to be able to finance their debt, will quickly become insufficient as a matter of mathematical certainty. Thus, a liquidity crisis is largely inevitable, particularly since the central bank may not be able to intervene to the extent that would be needed to avert such a crisis without worsening commodity inflation. As we can see in the monthly chart, the EMA ribbon which acted as resistance, has been broken. Even as the Stochastic RSI oscillates down, price is remaining above the EMA ribbon for the first time since the Great Recession. Chart 10 - Persistent Inflation This chart shows just how persistent inflation has been. This ratio chart compares iShares TIPS Bond ETF which tracks an index composed of inflation-protected U.S. Treasury bonds (TIP) to iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF). For the first time ever, the Stochastic RSI (which is shown on the bottom) has oscillated fully down to oversold levels on the monthly chart while price remains above the EMA ribbon. This suggests a major trend change may have occurred in that the EMA ribbon, which has generally held as resistance, may have flipped to support. This leads us to conclude that inflation may be persistently elevated for longer than anticipated. So long as inflation remains high, central banks must keep interest rates, or the cost of money, high as well. Compare the current situation to the Great Recession when inflation quickly turned into deflation, which allowed the central banks to pivot to monetary easing. One might question whether this monthly chart is showing a... bullflag? Chart 11 - Commodity Inflation Supercycle Similar to the previous chart, this chart shows Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC). DBC is composed of futures contracts on 14 of the most heavily traded and important physical commodities in the world. Each candlestick in this chart represents a 2-month period. What this chart shows is just how persistent commodity inflation has been. Despite nearly an entire year of monetary tightening at a record pace, commodity futures are only very slowly disinflating. Compare this to the Great Recession, when commodity prices rapidly deflated. This time around it is likely that commodity prices will remain elevated even as economic growth slows. This is occurring because commodity prices have entered into a new supercycle, and this new supercycle of higher commodity prices will likely result in The Great Stagflation. Chart 11a It appears that if anything, DBC is presenting a bull flag pattern on this higher timeframe chart. This could stymie the Federal Reserve's ability to pivot to easier monetary conditions should unemployment begin to rise rapidly or should corporate liquidity issues mount. Chart 12 - Cost of Energy This chart shows the price of American multinational oil and gas corporation, ExxonMobil (XOM). Price has been ripping higher after bouncing on the -2 standard deviation regression channel line during the pandemic shutdown. Now, the yearly Stochastic RSI is showing strong upward momentum. This suggests that the costs of energy, including fossil fuel energy, will trend upward for years to come, even as economic growth slows. Similar patterns as this are appearing across virtually all charts in the energy sector, including in sustainable energy (hydrogen, uranium, etc.). Since energy is considered a commodity, these charts patterns buttress the assertion that commodity prices may continue to inflate in the years to come. In my post below, I note how the hydrogen energy company Plug Power (PLUG) looks to be in a log-scale bull flag pattern. (Not a buy or sell recommendation) Chart 13 - Coffee This chart shows that coffee futures bounced after undergoing a Fibonacci retracement to the 0.618 level. Now, long lower wicks are forming on bullish reversal candles, indicating that prices are likely to attempt a rally on the monthly timeframe. This is yet another warning that commodity inflation may remain persistent. Chart 14 - Eggs This chart, with a seemingly cryptic symbol, shows the price of eggs (specifically, the price of one dozen of large, Grade A eggs) compared against the U.S. money supply (M2). The chart is actually quite ominous, and I'll explain why. The price of eggs is soaring at a record pace even as the supply of money is shrinking at a record pace. For the first time on record, the price of eggs relative to the supply of money has reached a level above the 6-month EMA ribbon, which has historically always acted as resistance. From a conceptual perspective, what this chart actually means is that more of consumers' wealth must go into meeting their basic food needs. Thus, consumers will have less wealth to spend on other goods and services. Since eggs are inferior goods, meaning that one's demand for eggs increases as one's income goes down, the soaring price of eggs may actually be confounded by increasing demand (alongside supply constraints). If demand of these inferior goods increases as unemployment goes up, and eggs remain scarce, the price can soar even higher as the below chart suggests. This chart shows the yearly Stochastic RSI is only now just beginning to oscillate up. This means that the upward pressure on the price of eggs may last for years to come. Of course, eggs are commodities. When commodity prices inflate even as the central bank tightens the money supply, this may result in stagflation. Commodity inflation is a central bank's worst nightmare because it makes it difficult to pivot to easier monetary conditions to stimulate a slowing economy. If a central bank pivots to easier monetary conditions before commodity inflation is mitigated, then commodity prices will not just continue to rise, but they may hyperinflate. Thus, this inflationary spiral in the price of eggs is sending an ominous warning about the coming Great Stagflation. Chart 15 - Money Supply This chart shows that for the first time, when looking back to 1960, the U.S. money supply (M2) actually declined year-over-year. The amount of dollars removed from the money supply in 2022, could carpet the country of Luxembourg and spill into Belgium, Germany and France, or if each dollar were lined up lengthwise, would span the distance from earth to the moon more than 100 times over. Fortunately though, enough dollars still exist within the M2 money supply, that if each dollar was lined up lengthwise, it would reach from earth to past Uranus, the second most distant planet in our solar system. Chart 16 - The Fed's Balance Sheet The chart on the left of the two charts shown above, shows what appears to be the Federal Reserve rapidly rolling off assets off its balance sheet in 2022, and into 2023. However, when put into perspective, as illustrated by the chart on the right, the past year of balance sheet rolloffs barely scratches the surface of the total amount of assets that the Federal Reserve added to its balance sheet over the decades of monetary easing. In the years to come, the global financial system will have to grapple with the consequences of the monetary easing experiment ending. Chart 17 - Dollar Index (DXY) This chart shows what appears to be the U.S. dollar index (DXY) breaking out of a bull flag on this yearly chart. In doing so, it is also breaking out above the resistance of its EMA ribbon, as shown in the chart on the right. On a conceptual level, by tightening the money supply more than the central banks of other countries, the Federal Reserve is effectively exporting inflation to those countries, and averting domestic commodity shortages. Yet, as with everything, there are disadvantages to doing this. Tightening the U.S. money supply too much can cause global liquidity issues since the U.S. dollar is the world's reserve currency and most global debt is denominated in it. Already the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has warned of dollar liquidity issues in the FX swaps and forwards market. If commodity inflation resurges, and forces the U.S. Federal Reserve to hike more than anticipated, this could cause a global liquidity crisis. Destabilizing the fragile and highly leveraged dollar-denominated global debt and derivatives market could ultimately accelerate the move away from the dollar standard. This Catch-22 is likely to result in a Great Stagflation. Chart 18 - Soaring Risk-Free Rate This chart shows a clear trend break in the yields of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds. The era of lower and lower interest rates over time is over. In theory, when the interest rate on a bond rises, this occurs because the market perceives greater risks associated with holding that bond. Therefore, the rapid rise in the risk-free rate (10-year U.S. Treasury yield), means that suddenly this risk-free asset is more... risky. Since holding any other asset, except physical cash and physical gold, is considered some degree more risky than holding U.S. Treasury bonds, then all other assets become more risky as well. One would expect this to happen as the monetary easing experiment comes to an end, and the everything bubble deflates. Chart 19 - Extreme Yield Curve Inversion This chart shows the yield curve inversion between the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond and the 3-month U.S. Treasury bill. Just days ago, the inversion slipped to the steepest inversion since the early 1980s. This is often considered a reliable recession indicator because these yields have never inverted without a recession ensuing. Effectively, these yields only invert because the central bank is tightening the money supply. When yields are inverted, bank lending declines because banks can no longer profitably borrow at short term rates to lend at long term rates. Since bank credit creates the most amount of money in a capitalist economy, a yield curve inversion is a warning of impending decline in the money supply, and therefore an impending decline in corporate earnings and consumer spending. Corporations can only earn, and consumers can only spend, some subset of the total money supply. Right now, that warning is blaring the loudest it has in over 40 years. In fact, we've never had such a steep inversion while the global economy is as leveraged as it is. Only time will tell how this will play out, but it's unlikely to end well. Chart 20 - Volatility (VIX) This chart shows the Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX) in a years-long symmetrical triangle pattern. This triangle pattern will likely end at some point this year, or early next year. Since the yield curve is inverted, this pattern will quite likely end with a breakout. Indeed, the yearly Stochastic RSI momentum for the VIX is upward, as shown in the chart below. Chart 20a As noted above, this chart shows that the yearly Stochastic RSI for the VIX is on a bull run. Chart 21 - Job Openings This chart shows that job openings reached the +2 standard deviation from their mean in early 2022. This was likely not just a business cycle high, but more likely, this was a supercycle high. The U.S. economy is unlikely to achieve such a high amount of job openings again for the foreseeable future. Since GDP growth barely substantiated such a high amount of job openings, one may conclude that this occurred due to excessive economic stimulation that denotes the monetary easing experiment. Chart 22 - Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJI) This chart shows that even with the declines in 2022, the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJI) remains at an extremely overbought level. The only other times the DJI has been as overbought as it is now was before the Great Depression and before the Dotcom Bust. Chart 23 - International Stock Markets This yearly chart compares the performance of S&P 500 (SPX) to that of the Deutsche Boerse AG German Stock Index DAX (DEU40). As you can see, it looks like the SPX is set to underperform the DEU40, possibly for years to come. Technically, the DEU40 can outperform the SPX by falling by less than it. Thus, this chart does not speak to absolute performance. Chart 23a This yearly chart compares the performance of S&P 500 (SPX) to that of the NIFTY 50 (NIFTY). The NIFTY is a benchmark Indian stock market index that represents the weighted average of 50 of the largest Indian companies listed on India's National Stock Exchange (NSE). It looks like the NIFTY has formed a years-long bull pennant relative to the S&P 500, and that the former could be ready to outperform its U.S. counterpart for years to come. It seems that in a defragmenting world with rising tensions between global super powers, a largely neutral India could be poised to outperform. So far, India has become a beneficiary of sanctions on Russia in that it has been able to purchase energy at discounted prices from the latter. Discounted energy prices, in a world that is otherwise struggling with commodity inflation, is a unique advantage that may explain why the NIFTY is set to outperform. Cheap energy enables strong economic growth. Chart 24 - Emergence of Bitcoin Let's go on a journey through time to measure just how disruptive the emergence of Bitcoin has become to traditional financial markets. This chart shows that, in just over a decade's time, Bitcoin has generated more wealth for an investor than the S&P 500 has generated in the past 150 years. Of course, such performance is not sustainable, and the returns of Bitcoin will become less and less impulsive with each successive halving cycle, which is mathematically consistent with a log growth curve function. Chart 24a This chart shows that the central bank can use interest rates to deflate the price of risk assets. As Treasury yields rise, risk assets typically decline. This shows that individuals' wealth is controlled by central governments. Chart 25 - Stock Market Decay This chart shows the performance of the U.S. stock market (SPX) compared against the performance of Bitcoin over the past ~15 years. There has never, in the history of the stock market, been an asset class that actually turns the exponential growth of the S&P 500 into a decay function like this. Bitcoin has become too disruptive to traditional financial markets, and is undermining central banks' ability to control individuals' wealth. Thus, central banks are preparing to deal with this problem. The solution will likely be in the form of CBDC which will restrict one's ability to convert fiat currency into decentralized cryptocurrency such as Bitcoin. Yet, CBDC can also result in unprecedented control by central governments of the way in which humans transact. In the coming months, I plan to write a research-based post on Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, and the ways in which blockchain technology and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) will revolutionize the way humans transact, authenticate ownership, and verify originality in a digital space. But for this technology, in a digital world denominated by AI, it will become impossible for humans to distinguish between what is real and what is not. Important Disclaimer Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Trading and investing always involve risks and one should carefully review all such risks before making a trade or investment decision. Do not buy or sell any security based on anything in this post. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any financial decisions. This post is for educational purposes only.
SP:SPX
by SpyMasterTrades
72
$CL_F: Oil is flashing a bearish signalStagflation bros in shambles...Crude oil seems likely to collapse from here, which might be a tailwind for earnings over time. Inflation hysteria had reached insane levels, and perma bears and perma oil bull Canadian Fintwit types/value investors and other assorted flavors of losers of the 2009-2021 market had flocked to the theory that we would get stagflation and a period like the 70s. I know I've had my fair share of doubts regarding that but oil's chart is clear now, how can inflation go rampant with falling oil? Seems unlikely and probably a signal pointing to weaker demand than anticipated. I guess the easy market conditions for people shorting, bag holding oil or coal stocks, etc. are likely over here. Swings offered will be profitable but hard to capture if you're dogmatic about your market analysis and not flexible and paying attention to charts and ever changing conditions and news. My take is over time we have a series of tailwinds for the economy (like oil and the big fall in the dollar from the top) that will contribute to re-rating of asset prices this year. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by IvanLabrie
5
The Fed won't be able to get inflation back to 2%The Fed says they are trying hard to get inflation down however the commodities chart is sticking out it's tongue at the Fed. Everyone on social media is screaming: The Fed is going to cause a major RECESSION; MAJOR RECESSION IS COMING!!! Yet this chart is not screaming a major recession is coming (nor is it at all scared by the Central Banks "hawkish" talk)? Let's look at past recessions (notated by the vertical red lines): July 2008-Notice how commodities plummeted after the high was made...literally just straight down due to the nature of the recession. (During the recession commodities dropped about 57%) March 2020-Commodities started to plummet in Jan 2020 and then plummeted hard during the short lived recession. (During the recession commodities dropped about 40%) April 2001-Commodities started to weaken after double topping in 2000 but didn't come down too much during the recession. (During the recession commodities dropped about 27%) What does this analysis tell me? 1. That we are not on the brink of a severe recession (like 2008). At this point; commodities are just in correction mode. 2. During a recession commodities plummet along with all the Indexes. Therefore, if this chart plummets so will just about every other chart. 4. We have a double breakout in commodities from the LT downtrend line & the LT horizontal trend line...any good pullbacks in commodities will be met with buyers hence inflation is NOT transitory and will remain sticky. 5. The soft landing narrative is a farce because you cannot get commodities to plummet unless you cause some sort of recession. 6. Commodities are saying the FED is actually not being hawkish enough. 7. The reason for inflation is very simple: money flowed into commodities. It all starts with raw materials. So are the Central Banks around the world really trying to get inflation under control? Or are they just "talking the talk"? At this point, the only way to get inflation down to 2% would be to cause a major recession but the rate hikes thus far have NOT scared the commodity chart into submission therefore Powell and all the other central bankers around the world are actually not doing enough at this point. So.....Stagflation continues! (BTW...the bond market has spoken: Cheap debt won't be making a comeback anytime soon!)
TVC:TRJEFFCRBLong
by Vixtine
7
AMZN targets the 92-82 pandemic D.bottom low & Vol Profile zone?AMZN has been making an ABC correction since the 188 ATH. The decline was very fast once it failed to hold the 150 volume profile zone. It has retraced exactly to 101, the 0.854 FIB of the 82 pandemic low to ATH. There was a little bounce but AMZN basically is just hovering around the 2016 TL while consolidating inside my red box without breaking the downtrend line. LOOKING BEARISH. I think AMZN will target the pandemic low at 82 to make a double bottom ending hew ABC correction. 82 is also the 0.618 FIB retracement from 14.20 (2015 low) to ATH. 82 is also the 1.618 Fib Extention of the ABC correction, making it a very strong support. WARNING: There may still be a 20% downside from latest low at 101 as consumer discretionary will be the first to suffer during an economic downturn. Not trading advice
NASDAQ:AMZN
by xtremerider8
US 10-year rate. Elliott wave possibilitiesThe US 10-year yield has pulled back from 3.50% to 2.75%, which is a sizeable drop by any stretch of imagination. The Fed has clearly said its current focus is on price stability and with yesterday's employment numbers, there is still little reason to believe that fears of a so-called slowdown, or even worse - a recession, are showing up in high frequency data that the central bank is using, atleast for now (or they have the data, but because of political pressures, continue to focus on containing inflation). The vertical drop in commodities has been puzzling no doubt; in fact the descent has been so quick that most people are aligning towards the fact that Fed forward guidance of more hikes (it remains to be seen whether existing measures of tightening policy are having the desired effect) are showing signs of demand destruction. I think for the Fed to acknowledge that a recession is a bigger worry than growth (at a certain point of time in the future), they would like to see a consistently southward CPI print which shows credible signs of not being sticky on the downside. For now, I believe they are simply taking back all that they made available in terms of additional QE to pull the world economy out of the Covid led crash. Tactically, the visit to 2.75% was fleeting -- that was a key support level, so the market comfortably vaulted past 3% on employment gains that were more than expected. These moves have now resulted in the market dangling at a critical juncture which I will try to address via the three best Elliott wave counts I have conjured up (the right to be wrong is exclusively mine, and so is the right to adapt quickly to what the market might be doing regardless of what I think it should do) given the presently available evidence. All three counts start from the July 2021 lows -- the count from the 2020 crash lows of 0.34% has not been used for the sake of this analysis (which suggests the bull market in yields has much longer and higher to go) but that's a separate discussion altogether. Primary Count: Long term trend in yields higher and is very much intact, but more sideways churn is expected within a RUNNING TRIANGLE before a surge: Requirement: 2.75% must hold for this to be valid labelling Alternate count #1: Long term higher, but one dip below 2.75% is needed to meet the minimum requirements for w((4)) to end Requirement: One more dip before a larger degree 5th wave targets 3.50% and higher; 2.75% can be broken or at the least, retested Link: Alternate count # 2: More aggressive count that suggests higher immediately, longer-term higher yields play Requirement: 2.75% cannot be broken from here, not even by a tick as per the rules of the wave principle for an impulse Link: Conclusion: Regardless of which wave count is in play - we will know that as we have more information appearing from the right of the chart, the impulse up in yields is anything but done. Perhaps, inflation will remain sticky longer than the consensus view is. -- Guest Contributor at the @CMTAssociation
TVC:US10Y
by CMT_Association
12
GDX GOLD MINER may bottom@24 or 21 zone to retest channel.GDX seems to be doing a BIG UPCHANNEL started from the 2016 low & retested at the 2018 low. If this lower channel is to be retested, GDX may bottom at the 24 green zone. This is the most probable since this is also the 2016 VWAP & the FIB 0.618 retracement from 2016 low. However, if you look at the VOLUME PROFILE, then GDX may fall more to the 21 zone to create a divergence, ending wave 1 of wave III. BULLISH longterm: Gold & gold miners will be a good hedge during rising inflation or recession. Every portfolio should have this insurance policy & some other defensives like XLV health, XLP staples & XLU utilities. TLT bonds will also rise during recession while US10Y rates go down in a deflationary environment. GDX may be just in the early stages of the longest wave III rally & has a long way to go. GDXJ Junior miners fell a lot more so I think percentage wise it will have to rise more just like today. Miners tend to be the leading indicator for GOLD. Gold may fall more to the 1670 to 1760 zone. Gold recovering 1800 will be very bullish while GDX reclaiming 30.37 wave 1 top & previous neckline pivot will also be bullish. Not trading advice.
AMEX:GDXLong
by xtremerider8
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPX Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 63% SPX, 37% Cash. * FOMC minutes were released at 2pm (EST) today and the main takeaways were: the Fed is committed to price stability and maximum employment and will take on a even more restrictive stance if inflation isn't tamed; they are most likely going to raise 75bps unless CPI comes in lower than expected or Russia/Ukraine situation improves, in this case they may raise 50; and that housing, job and credit markets are healthy as of May and the Fed thinks GDP will bounce back in Q2 - very curious to see how declining new home sales, growing gas and food prices, more layoffs and higher credit card usage will reflect on this perspective come July 27th. The current GDPnow estimate for Q2 GDP is -2.1% , and the next estimate is due tomorrow at 830am (EST). Gold + Oil + VIX + Euro are down and Equities + Treasuries + Cryptos + USD are up, markets seem to be pricing in a recession at this point. I guess it's only a real recession if the Fed says it is though.* Price is currently trending up at $3845 and forming a Bear Flag after bouncing from $3780; the next resistance is the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at $3938 minor resistance and the next support (minor) is at $3707. Volume remains Moderate and has favored buyers for the past three sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3706, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 46, the next resistance is at 53 and support at 38. Stochastic remains bullish for a second consecutive session and is currently trending up at 84 as it attempts to flip 76 resistance to support on its way to testing to max top. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at -56 as it slowly approaches -44 resistance, the next support (minor) is at -76. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 22 as Price is pushing higher, this is mildly bullish. If Price is able to continue up here then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3938 minor resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $3707 minor support before potentially heading lower to test $3508 minor support. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3780.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
RUSSELL 2000 respecting FIB levels; ABC may reach 1500 vol zone.The smallcaps Russell 2000 futures RTY1! (also the IWM etf), a leading market indicator like the transports, may complete an A=C correction ending in the volume profile zone near 1500. (IWM seems to be consolidating in tranches of 200…ex…230, 210, 190, now @ 170 & maybe 150 around 4Q2022.) This will complete the final wave 5 of C-wave. As you can see in this weekly chart, Russell 2000 respects impt FIB levels. 2100 zone is Fib 0.236, 1900 is Fib 0.383, the current 1700 zone is Fib 0.50 & the projected 1500 bottom zone will be Fib 0.618, the most likely zone for a reversal. THE BULLISH CASE: if Russell 2000 holds the 1700 zone, the bounce will be very quick due to the 2 LOW VOLUME zones. The target will be 2100 with some consolidation near the 1900 zone. Not trading advice
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by xtremerider8
Hedge for High Interest RatesHere is great high interest rate hedge. While I wanted to use USINTR to compare, it didn't look obvious for easy analysis, so I used USIRYY instead since both are greatly correlated. The Fed keeps talking like a dove but acting like a hawk: like promising soft landings from transitory inflation, yet suddenly choosing rare 75 bps increase, even though they previously implied 50 bps would be the most. So, I expect next few rate raisings will be at least that much, possibly a full point even during this summer. That would be great for this ETF going up, which is currently on sale, thanks to more direct & intense QT from the Federal Reserve.
AMEX:PFIXLong
by roelds
BTC/USD Daily TA Neutral BearishBTC/USD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. *Whether or not it was the doing of a few whales or institutions liquidating positions, this week confirms that equities and cryptos are currently decoupled and uncorrelated in terms of their PA (beta coefficient as well). That said, going forward it's reasonable to expect cryptos to be the most risk-on investment available and therefore subject to the harshest downside. The official reduction of the Federal Reserve balance sheet will commence on June 1st and gradually increase in terms of reduction size throughout the rest of the year; this is expected to have a bearish impact on risk-on markets.* Recommended ratio: 40% BTC, 60% cash. Price is currently testing the 50/50 uptrend line from March 2017, in addition to the adjacent side of the Descending Triangle, for what is now nineteen consecutive sessions; considering that we are reaching the end of this formation it is reasonable to expect an impending breakout or breakdown in the next couple of sessions. Volume remains moderate (low) and if it can't close today in the green then it would be four consecutive sessions of seller dominance leading up to the breakout or breakdown; this scenario would give bias to it being a breakdown. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $26745, this is mildly bearish. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 37.64, the next resistance is at 42.41 and support at 25.60. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending down at 72 as it tests 78 support. MACD is currently trending up slightly at -1882, the next resistance is at -1435; the fact that MACD is still trending up indicates that bulls are not yet ready to give $30k support up quite yet. ADX continues to trend sideways at 44 for four consecutive sessions now as Price is also trading relatively flat. If Price is able to breakout to the upside and reclaim $30507 as support, the next likely target is a test of $36258 minor resistance. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely fall (fairly violently) to $24180 minor support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $30507.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
GOLD/USD Daily TA Cautiously BullishGOLD/USD Daily cautiously bullish. *Equities are up and Gold is currently uppish/flat. If you believe that equities are seeing a bear market rally and new lows are in the near future, that very well may be catalyzed by another 50bp (at least) rate hike and the beginning of the treasury security rollover and mortgage backed security reinvestment come June 1st, then you have reason to be bullish on Gold. However, if you think market's have priced this in already and are prepared to surge higher in June, then you may want to reduce your short-medium term exposure to Gold.* Recommended ratio: 80% Gold, 20% Cash. Price is attempting to establish support at the 50 MA (~$1841) for a third consecutive session. Volume remains high (moderate) and is on track to break the two day streak of seller dominance if it can close today in the green (six of the past eight sessions will then have favored buyers). Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $1812, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 46.16 and it's technically still testing 42.06 support. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending down at 80.32; it's still technically testing 88.41 support. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at -14.69, the next resistance is at -10.84. ADX is currently trending down at 19.92 as Price continues to want to go higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment but would need to form a trough together with more price appreciation to confirm bullishness. If Price is able to break out above $1867 minor resistance then it will likely retest the 50 MA at ~$1910 minor resistance. However, if Price is rejected here at $1867, it will likely retest the 200 MA at $1830 before potentially retesting the uptrend line from March 2020 at $1800. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $1831.
G
by dailytaguy
BTC/USD Daily Neutral BullishBTC/USD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. *FUD regarding Ethereum's Merge (which, according to Ethereum devs and community including Vitalik Buterin was due to a "non-trivial segmentation error stemming from out of date software" is actively being resolved) may have pushed some investors to BTC as it dropped to $28000 temporarily but remains relatively flat at $29500 while ETH and the broader crypto market has fallen roughly 5%. Which makes the crypto/equities-decoupling case this week pretty strong.* Recommended ratio: 51% BTC, 49% cash. Price is doing its very best to hold on to support at the 50/50 uptrend line from March 2017 ($29.5k) for what is now the sixteenth consecutive session (correction from the previous TA - the count was fourteen not thirteen then); it is completing a Descending Triangle which typically breaks to the downside so a tight stop loss is encouraged. Volume remains moderate and is on track to favor sellers for a second consecutive session if it closes today in the red, that wouldn't bode well for breakout chances. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $26.6k, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending sideways at 39.26 as it hovers below the uptrend line from 01/22/22 at 42.41 resistance. Stochastic is currently trending up slightly at 93 and is barely bullish after trading neutrally since 05/23/22; the next resistance is max top (and it still has a bit of potential to coast in the 'Autobahn Zone' here). MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at -1939 with no signs of peak formation; the next resistance is at -1435 and support (minor) at -2497. ADX is trending sideways at 44 while Price is trending sideways at ~$29.5k, this is neutral at the moment. If Price can manage to break out of the Descending Triangle from 05/10/22 and turn $30507 from resistance to support, the next likely target is a test of $36258 minor resistance. However, if Price breaks down out of the Descending Triangle then it will likely fall to $24180 minor support before potentially heading lower. Mental Stop Loss: (tight stop loss - one close below) $28600.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
SPX/USD Daily TA Cautiously BullishSPX/USD Daily cautiously bullish. *The VIX is heading down, USDX down, Gold down and for the first week in years, crypto is decoupling from equities as it has gone down while equities have gone up. Risk-on investing is starting to lose favor in crypto due to a multitude of reasons but mainly because most market speculation was concentrated in crypto. What is shaping up to be a Bear Market Rally, that may very well run into next month, will face a big challenge when the Fed begins to reduce their balance sheet of security holdings (treasury and mortgage-backed securities) on June 1st and the FOMC releases a statement after they regroup on June 14-15 regarding another funds rate hike (Fed is committed to at least a 50 bp rate hike in both June and July).* Recommended ratio: 70% SPY, 30% cash . Price bounced off of $3939 (second time in eight sessions) and is currently on the verge of testing the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 as resistance at ~$4090 (also for the second time in eight sessions). Volume remains high (moderate) and is on track to favor buyers for a second consecutive session. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3813; this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending vertically at 48 as it quickly approaches a formal retest of 52.68 resistance. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 83 but is still technically testing 76.29 resistance. RSI remains bullish for a second consecutive day and is currently trending up at -84.13 as it quickly approaches -76.22 minor resistance. ADX is currently trending down at 28.42 as Price is surging, this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price is able to breakout above the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$4090, then the next likely target is a test of $4175 resistance before potentially moving higher. However, if Price is rejected at ~$4090, it will likely retest $3938 minor support before potentially falling lower to $3706 minor support. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3938.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
GOLD/USD Daily TA BullishGOLD/USD Daily bullish. *Hints of stagflation and a very possible recession fueled by a strong U.S. dollar , high inflation , low unemployment , rising Funds rate , falling new home sales , Russia/China and shrinking GDP has some investors fleeing to Gold as a safe haven asset again. This has been further exacerbated by the recent downturn for USD.* Recommended ratio: 90% GOLD, 10% cash. Price is currently trending up at $1860 after establishing support at both the 200 MA ($1840) and the uptrend line from April 2020. Volume remains high (moderate) and is currently on track to favor sellers for the first session in six sessions if it closes today in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $1800, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 46.50 after defending support at the uptrend line from April 2013 at 35.50; the next resistance is at 67.24 and the next support at 42.06. Stochastic remains bullish and is on the verge of crossing over bearish at 98. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at -17, the next resistance is at -10.84. ADX is currently trending down at 22.84 as Price continues higher, this is reflective of a potential reversal and would be confirmed if ADX was to bounce in the coming sessions and trend back above 25. If Price is able to continue surging then it will likely test the 50 MA at $1910 minor resistance. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest the 200 MA at $1840 before potentially heading lower to retest the uptrend line from April 2020 at $1800. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $1840.
G
by dailytaguy
BTC/USD Daily TA Neutral BullishBTC/USD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. *Both equity and crypto markets have become so overwhelmingly bearish that they're starting to run out of sellers in the short term. This is shaping up to be somewhat of a contrarian trade and may even just be a short squeeze before falling lower; but as of now there is support at these levels and buying pressure is mounting.* Recommended ratio: 55% BTC, 45% cash. Price is currently testing the 50/50 uptrend line from March 2017 at ~$29k for a thirteenth consecutive session and in doing so is forming a Descending Triangle (bearish). Volume remains moderate (low) and has favored buyers in three of the past four sessions, indicating that there is significant support at the third largest supply/demand zone on the chart. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $26234, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 38.31 as it approaches a test of the uptrend line from 01/21/22 (as resistance) at 42.41 resistance. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending sideways at 90 (on the verge of crossing over bearish). MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up slightly at -2181 while still technically testing -2497 support; the next resistance is at -1435. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 43 as Price continues to test this critical support in hopes of staging a retracement or reversal, this is mildly bullish. If Price is able to breakout above $30507 resistance then the next likely target is a test of $36258 minor resistance. However, if Price breaks down out of this Descending Triangle from 05/10/22, it will likely test $24180 minor support before potentially heading lower. Mental Stop Loss: (tight stop loss - one close below) $28600.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
TWLO/USD Daily TA Neutral BullishTWLO/USD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. *Twilio has fallen 81% from its ATH ($457.65) and is approaching the end of a massive Falling Wedge from March 2021.* Recommended ratio: 55% TWILIO, 45% cash. Price is currently testing the lower trendline of the Falling Wedge from March 2021 at $100.65 support. Volume has been shrinking since early May as Price trades within the second largest supply/demand zone on the chart; this is mildly bullish as it is indicative of an incoming breakout (due to it being a Falling Wedge the bias is to the upside). Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $105, this is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 40 as it continues testing 37.47 support for the sixth consecutive session. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 85; the next resistance is at max top. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up slightly at -10; the next likely target is a test of the descending trendline from May 2020 at -4.57 resistance. ADX is currently trending sideways at 33 as Price is attempting to establish support at $100, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to defend $100.65 support then the next likely target is a test of the upper trendline of the Falling Wedge at $120-$125 (this is also the largest supply/demand zone on the chart) before potentially breaking out of the formation to the upside. However, if Price breaks down below the lower trendline of the Falling Wedge at $92.60, the next likely target is a test of $70 support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $95.50.
NYSE:TWLO
by dailytaguy
BTC/USD Daily TA Neutral BullishBTC/USD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. *Sunday Scaries watch -- both the bulls and bears love setting traps on Sunday and Monday so please be wary of a potential Dead Cat Bounce.* Recommended ratio: 60% BTC, 40% cash. Price has been testing the 50/50 uptrend line from March 2017 for 11 consecutive sessions now and is currently attempting to bounce off of it to break out of a 12-day Bullish Flag formation. Volume remains moderately low and is on track to favor buyers for a second consecutive session; the low volume is a bit concerning here but could also indicate that sellers are getting exhausted. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $26k, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 40 as it approaches 42.41 resistance (which coincides with the uptrend line from 01/22/22. Stochastic is currently trending sideways at 91 and is on the verge of a bearish crossover, it is still technically testing 77.95 resistance. MACD remains bullish after crossing over in yesterday's session, it is still technically testing $2497 minor support. ADX is beginning to trend down at 45 as Price is being supported here at $30k, this is mildly bullish. If Price is able to breakout and close above $30507 (twice consecutively) then the next likely target is a test of $36258 minor resistance. However, if Price is rejected here and falls below $28600, then it will mean that the 50/50 uptrend line has been broken and BTC will likely test $24180 minor support before potentially testing $20k. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $28633.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy