Stage Analysis & Trailing StopsWhy Stage Analysis
Stage Analysis is the very first thing you need to get right or everything else will be unnecessary, according to Mark Minervini.
Based on his study 98% of all big winners, dating back from 1800s to current day have been in confirmed Stage 2 BEFORE they made their big move! This makes Stage Analysis a foundational knowledge for anyone who trades the market.
History of Stage Analysis
Stan Weinstein outlined the principles of Stage Analysis in his 1988 book, Stan Weinstein's Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets.
This classic text opened the door for many non-professionals to execute successful trading system based on his detailed description of the best prospects for long buys and short sale positions. However, his classic concepts have a far wider reach — it is a premise that gives the best time for a trader to enter and trade the market.
It divides market action by 4 segment (Stages) which analyzes prices dynamics over a continuous cycle that includes bottoms, breakouts, top peaks breakdowns and downtrend occurrences.
STAN
Standard Chartered – Bullish break lacks supp of strong volumes
Standard Chartered shares are flirting with inverse head and shoulder neckline and appear poised to close the day higher.
That would be confirm a bullish break and present a technical target of 831. However, as of now, that appears a big task given the banking concerns in Europe. Nevertheless, a bullish break on day end closing basis would open doors for 659.50 (Sep 15, 2015 low).
But bulls need to observe caution as we have a negative volume divergence i.e. volumes are sliding, hence the breakout could turn into a ‘fakeout’.
Contrarian investing vs catching a falling knifeI am not the author of the seekingalpha article even the though the title looks similar. I just find it cool and it rings.
For followers of Stan Weinstein chart analysis (do google this up, his technical analysis methods are really easy to use), you would have noticed that KORS has just exited stage 1 and is now at the possible start of stage 2. The high volume confirms this. Also, the crossover of the 30 SMA confirms this as well.
Fundamentally speaking, KORS has a low PS ratio of 2.05 (at time of writing) and based on Ken FIsher investment strategy, the PS ratio below 3 is fairly attractive. It also has low debts, which is a good thing as the Fed starts to increase interest rates.
DCF puts KORS at a valuation of $71. Interestingly this coincides with the 50% Fib retracement of this chart. I have bought 25 shares (I am a poor college student) at $50.06 and will prepare to sell at 50% Fib retracement.
STANDARD CHARTERED PLC PREDICTIONRECOMMENDATION SELL
SUPPORT level of 1057
TARGET 1047
STOP LOSS 1067
CHART FORMATION:-
Stock is trading in a range and line will lead to downside movement. Stock is trading near the 50 DMA with negative bias.
INDICATORS:-
RSI is trading near to 49.60 level with negative bias, in upcoming session downside movement is expected.
MACD and Signal line is sustaining below the zero level line.