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Standardandpoor500

SPY- Bounce, Found. Top, Searching.So we got the bounce we were looking for, right in the 230 area that I had been talking about. So far so good. Let's see if we can get an idea as to where this market will top out for its final exhaustive push-up. Where would be an area where many people who got caught would love to take the loss for the peace of mind of not being in this market? Where will the bots be programmed to scale in the shorts? What areas have recently been important catalyst levels? I will throw out my target area even though there is no way to know exactly where price will reverse. I'm going with 251-252. I will be watching our horizontal support closely at 249 to see if we have the steam to break through. If we manage to make it above that level then my target will be the next stop. I like the confluence that it has: 1. Horizontal at the lows of the one year consolidation period. 2. Fibonacci .382 retracement level 3. 21 Exp Moving Average (which is projected with my orange dotted line) 4. Fed news breakdown area *When rates hiked, we broke this support that day) We obviously could top out at any given point from where we are right now or all the way up to 263 but the area I will be watching most closely is the 251-252 confluence. We will see if we make it there. These sorts of things are extremely hard to predict, so I like to put weight on price action and volume as we approach critical areas. Looking for a spike in green volume as the price is going up sharply to put in a top. I will also be watching for smaller timeframe bearish divergence as we progress upward.
AMEX:SPY
by PipMiesterStronger
SPY- Be a Wolf, not a Sheep. We are aggressively approaching our 200 week moving averages. Throughout this bear market / crash I will be watching very closely certain key levels to close trades out and to allow the price to firm up and then re-enter shorts after whatever bounce has occurred. There is no way to know for sure that a bounce will happen at any given level but whenever you have good confluences coming together a disciplined trader will have a plan to exit at those levels given that the volume characteristics at that point in time confirm your hypothesis. Using volume is a little tricky sometimes. But I boil it down to looking for Large spikes in volume (that were not news driven or during the market closing or opening.) A larger than normal volume, while the price is going down, would signal that the price is trying to put in a local bottom if the price is moving up and produces a large volume bar then a local top. I have my confluence of supports coming in at 233.25 it could overshoot that slightly, especially with the very heavy sell pressure and then get supported up for a bounce. Our moving averages could get pierced slightly and then price still move up. The point is that sometimes there are specific levels that you want to have razor accuracy and execute orders on a breakout as we did at 262.5 for our "Big Short" Clear level, low risk trade with easily manageable risk. The reason we could buy that one off of the 3-minute chart as it was breaking down was that we had a very clear structure that had been tested 5 times already and we were waiting for that final breakthrough (as the more a trendline is tested the weaker it becomes). How will I know that we are not going to bounce or even slow down at this confluence... If we never get a substantial volume that shows there are buyers trying to enter in with force. I am hoping for a bounce for everyone's sake that could not have gotten out of the market earlier, but now feel that price has gone down too far that they will be throwing away all of 2 years gains. I hope they realize that they could very quickly throw away 10 years worth of gains if they cannot get over losing some on their account. Managing your portfolios correctly right now and for this next year will be 1000X more important than choosing which mutual funds or ETFs to hold in a bull cycle. You must be nimble and you must be willing to pull the trigger and take a loss. You might even want to recapture the losses you've incurred by shorting the market. I have not been interested in stocks until I saw the potential crash coming back in August, with the very enticing monthly bearish divergences. Before that, I learned a very hard but clear lesson about market cycles while trading BTC this last year. Do not trade against the trend/market cycle. Become one with the institutions. If the sheeple people are all thinking one thing do the opposite. If the news is telling you something, then your being manipulated to react. In this chart we can see that we had measured moves (Yellow Dotted Line) from the top of the peak down to the bootom of the bear flag. We copied that same line down to get a target price from that structre in the 230's. We have a little bit of supportive price action on the left side of the chart and I have drawn in a support line at 240 and 230. The 200 EMA and MA weeklys are coming in at around those same areas respectivly. No bounce is guarenteed but the indgredents are here for it to happen if buyers decide to make it happen. A bounce could trick some people and I am sure the news will tout that we are recovering the worst is behind us. Please, think twice before beliving that one when you hear it. IMO, It will simply be the last place to get out at a decent place or get accounts set up and ready for shorting at those tops from any bounce. We will be looking of the bounce to test some Moving averages and key resistance levels for establish that short (or for some exit to cash.) Ill be posting every step of the way on this glorious journey to the depths of opportunity. Disclaimer: This is not financial advise this is intended for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk, I am not a financial advisor and am not registered with any agency and all assets have maximum loss potential.
AMEX:SPYShort
by PipMiesterStronger
1
When will we have a retrace ? [SPX]Hmm must admit that I was expecting to have a FIBretrace on the S&P 500 already. The levels, to look for a FIB retracement, are now 2490 and around 2390 area (both previous tops). We just had a bounce of 2490 level, if we close below this level during the week, then I will expect a new drop to 2390. As before, Shallow retracement (FIB 0,3-0,5) the bear market will resume right away. Deeper retracement (FIB 0,5 and above) we are "on pause" properly until beginning of January.
SP:SPXShort
by Mr_Average
S&P, New economical crisis is started.Dear friends, a very important warning to all of you. This chart shows us that the new economic crisis is coming. Reasons why it is here: - 10 years of growth. We all know every 8–10 years there is a recession around the world. - Technically, downtrend started when the price broke down 2620 level. - Also, US government increase the interest rate to take more money into their economy from the whole world. I recommend to open Sell near 2620 middle - term goal is 2190.
SP:SPXShort
by Yuriy_Bishko
14
Are we entering a new recession? Death cross on S&P.S&P500 printed this month a Death Cross (MA50/MA200) and is already -8.40% since its appearance. A similar occurrence took place in 2008 at the start of the global financial crisis. In 2008 the Death Cross resulted into a fast (around 1 month) -14.40% decline on the index and assuming that the same sequence will follow, we can expect S&P to drop below 2,400 and around 2,360 in the next 20-30 days. The similarities (another -11.80% decline that preceded) and timing between the two periods are astonishing. If the monetary governing bodies do not turn the very negative market psychology around soon by reviewing their policies, we should be looking into a new recession in 2019. If that's the case, and the full bear cycle sequence of 2008 is followed, we may see S&P losing around -55-60% of its value, making a bottom around 1,250. Of course this is just a technical projection based on recurring patterns and similar candle sequences from the historical volatility at hand. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
SP:SPXShort
by InvestingScope
24
S&P: Channel Down towards 2500.Since the price crossed the 2,603 1D Support last week, it has developed a Channel Down on 4H (RSI = 35.405, MACD = -23.590, Highs/Lows = -14.5707). According to its High/ Low sequence we can project that the next Lower Low will be completed on a -6.85% decline, i.e. 2,506.50. Use this technical suggestion with extreme caution however as the Fed Interest Decision tomorrow and the statement to follow, may largely unsettle any technical pattern. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by InvestingScope
SPY - Preparing for the best trade ROI in 10 yearsLooking good so far if you're shorting this beast. We have a very clear cut bear flag consolidation that makes trading very easy. It hasn't broken yet but when it does " LOOK OUT BELOW " Its measured move takes us to 230 on the SPY. Although 240 will provide some bounce as it has nice support on the left side of the chart. If 263 breaks then that we should start to get our impulse down. If your long in this market then please just get out & let things pass. If you're short then congratulations because you might be on top of the best trade in 10 years in the legacy markets. We could, of course, get another relief rally/dead cat up to 270 upon which will be the next shorting opportunity. Price at this point should be capped at the 275 area due to some death crosses happening in our MA's Happy Trading
AMEX:SPYShort
by PipMiesterStronger
1
S&P500: Bullish pattern to 2800.The price action on 1D highlights the existence of a strong Resistance zone at 2,818.50 - 2,825.25 and a strong Support zone at 2,603.00 - 2,626.75. The current overbought Channel Up pattern on 4H (RSI = 73.422, MACD = 9.300, Highs/Lows = 46.8393) mirrors the previous one that following the test of the Support zone, it reached the Resistance zone. Following Powell's strong outlook today, there are high chances for this aggressive buying pattern to duplicate in the next 5 - 7 sessions. Our TP is 2,749.25 and 2,795.50 in extension. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by InvestingScope
2
S&P Update These markets were made to move! As discussed in my previous analysis from Septemeber we have massive bearish diveregence in the RSI on our legacy markets. Elections helped give us a reason for uncertainity but politics will not ever Trump the Charts. They will simply fulfill them. The chart is King and news and events will often confirm what the chart had first been telling you. What is the Chart telling us? Well it all started in around 2009. We had a recession instigated by the mortgage crisis. To get us out of this crisis our government had done many bad things that essentially "kicked the massive can down the road." Bailouts, excessive Fed printing, lowered interest rates for years, and many other things. We used electric shock resuscitation to keep our economy from collapsing into a depression. Well the electric bill from that crisis is just now showing up in our mail box. "But the economy has never been stronger" "What better time to pay your outstanding bills?" Anyway, economic theory doesn't really matter because the markets are really all about the chart, perception and fear. To sum up: Purple is our consolidation range. Breaking up or down out of that will be the start of an impulsive move. (Disclaimer: if you are only willing to invest Long/Bullish and you think that this is just a small correction and the wost has already come. Then, you must not buy into the market until we are comfortably living above the purple resistance on a weekly chart. This is very important only then will my analysis and hypothesiszed downward move be nullified) Even if somehow the market gets up to that purple line resistance it will be printing a third even stronger monthly bearish divergence and it would be a clear sell signal. If the markets make it up half way to that resistance and fall of it will be a head and shoulders reversal pattern. So not until competely clearing and holding above it would be "safe" to invest. Green 55 Weekly is acting as short term resistance at around 272 Gold 21 Monthly is supporting our arses at 261.5 The black and bold lines you see run us back all the way a decade to our last recession. We have since stayed within these lines which have created a quite large Ascending Wedge pattern, which eventually break to the downside at some point. Speculation: There have been very strong correlations between the crypto market and the SPY even though they are avery different parts of their repsective market cycles. The fact that BTC had made another impulse move down today could help the SPY break the purple consolidation support. Watch out for a Monday gap down where we test 260 support as well as the falling wedge support. The falling wedge support is difficult to get exact so I will be trading off of horizontal supports (like 260) and MA's. This breakdown could start tomorrow or in 3 months. There is really no way to tell exactly. I would say there's pretty good evidence that it could happen soon, but we could also get supported and play around more in this purple flag consolidation and pull in more bulls before crashing. Like I mentioned above we could create a 3rd divergence by going all the way to the top purple resistance or part way up to create a head and shoulders patern, before coming down hard. Supports: 240, 213, and if we complete a full corrective bear market we could hit our highs from 2007 at 153.
AMEX:SPYShort
by PipMiesterStronger
2
S&P: Triangle expected to break upwards. Bullish.The index has developed a Triangle on 1D (RSI = 45.946, CCI = -19.2621, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) following last week's decline near 2,670. On the positive side the 0.618 Fibonacci level (2,684.75) was only broken that one time on 1D and has since held support. If that level stays intact then the Triangle has more chances to break higher with 2,767 as the first Resistance before the critical 2,824.75 test. We are still bullish on medium term with TP = 2,893. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by InvestingScope
1
S&P: Target hit. Channel Up intact. Bullish.TP = 2,785 hit before the index successfully made a Higher Low on the 4H Channel Up (RSI = 56.761, MACD = 13.990, B/BP = 9.0660). The two high probability scenarios arise. Either the Channel Up goes for a new Higher High or 1D consolidates (RSI = 52.278, Highs/Lows = 33.1786) the overbought STOCH, STOCHRSI (> 80.00) and Williams in a symmetrical pattern as seen on the chart. In both cases the target is a near 2,900 extension (TP = 2,893). ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by InvestingScope
1
U.S. elections: + 11.57%. Don't miss this buy opportunity.This chart illustrates the performance of the S&P500 index after each mid-term elections in the United States. We can see that since 1950, in the past 17 elections, the S&P has grown in the months that followed in 16 of these occasions. The only exception was after November 2002, when the index suffered -17.62% losses in the months that followed. The rest of the bullish sequences gave on average of +32.84%. If this time the S&P follows this pattern (+32.84%), then we get a projected target of 3,720. This is of course less realistic as this average takes into account periods (before 1998-2000) that the market was very different and less complex than it is today. It is safer therefore to calculate the average since 2006, a period not too far ago, much more similar to how we know the market today. So the past three post elections gains gave an average +11.47%. This is good news for long term investors, who can now safely go long on U.S. stocks. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
SP:SPXLong
by InvestingScope
3
S&P: 1W support made. Expect long term uptrend. Long.spxThe index successfully rebounded on the 1W support/ Higher Low cross (2,600) and immediately broke the previous 1D Channel Down (STOCH = 67.897, Williams = -37.898, B/BP = 12.6380). This is creating a very bullish long term development on S&P with a new 1D Channel Up emerging. The long term uptrend of 1M (RSI = 60.871, MACD = 144.470) should provide the necessary bullish support during this post earnings period and especially after Thursday's rate is announced. We remain bullish with TP = 2,785 (1W Gap Fill) and 2,900 the extension.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by InvestingScope
S&P -What Now?We are still living within our larger Flag type consolidation... During this consolidation time, there's going to be volatility and much more difficulty in determining short-term direction. Bottom Line: I hypothesize that price will go down from here and test our support again at the purple flag support which also is in confluence with the monthly 21 exp moving average. Oct 11 Low connects to Oct 29 Low to create bullish divergence in the RSI. From this, we expected a bounce, and we got it. Since there is no measured move to be taken from the divergence we look to our scholastics to get some perspective. Are Daily Stoch's are in the overbought regions and are currently crossing. Also, the 2-4 hour stochastics are also in the oversold area and ready to come down. We have attempted to break back into our previous channel (brown lines). Though we did pierce this resistance and do not see signs of getting meaningful support from these same lines. We have a few moving averages (discussed below) as well just under us but I believe that they will soon break and we will continue down to the purple support lines. It's important to note what has happened with our moving averages as many algorithms buy and sell off of them. 200 EMA Daily (Red Line Plotted) - We are still living below this highly watched EMA, which until we're trading above it things should be looked at with bearish lenses. 200 EMA (Daily) Crossed with our 21 EMA (Daily) - Shortly after this cross price action went up and tested and rejected this exact area. Of course, we could go up again and pass through that level, but I am strongly leaning toward more downside to approx 264. 55 EMA Weekly 271.23 is right under us and is supporting price in the meantime, breaking below that level will mean that it will become resistance. 21 EMA Monthly merging with our purple Flag Support line in such a beautiful way. Its angle is the exact same as our purple line and has remained so since Sept 3. I expect that we will get supported even upon the second test of this area but if it doesn't hold. then this will be a Very Great entry for shorts and a clear area to manage risk from. So the bottom purple line is very important as its 2 things. Bottom of Flag support and our Monthly 21 EMA. For the next few weeks, I expect price action to further decompose down to either of the purple support lines.
AMEX:SPYShort
by PipMiesterStronger