Approaching ATH. Cautious buying.Following a new Higher Low at 2,803, the index resumed the uptrend, creating a smaller 1D Channel Up (RSI = 62.251, MACD = 16.360, Highs/Lows = 9.9821, B/BP = 28.5480) that is technically looking to test the All Time Highs. This is where our last target of this bullish run on S&P is, which will complete our estimated buying quarterly cycle. Due to the importance of this spot, we will downgrade our TP to 2,873. If the ATH break then the small Channel Up will seek a Higher High extension at 2,889.25, which if crossed will start the new bullish leg of September to 2,930. In a different case, they will first seek a Higher Low (2,829.25 - 2,838.25) before retesting the ATH again.
Standardandpoor500
Bull Market Beat-down 2019.. Tickets on sale NOW!I hate to say it.. I really do- but the S&P 500 has drawn some unwanted attention, and word on the street- it's cruisin’ for a bruisin’. Ever since the new administration took office we’ve seen the US Stock Market riding high ‘without a jacker in sight’.. I mean who is to blame? With current conditions thriving, the market is finally doing its job of gaging the overall environment of the US Economy for the first time in 20 years. Nonetheless, this 10-year bull rally will certainly go down in history as one of the greatest moments of US prosperity (some would disagree) but like the saying goes- the higher the climb the harder the fall. I personally don't believe this is how it MUST go down... After all parachutes do exist, right? However, it seems the US of A and the rest of the developed nations of the world are failing to learn from their past mistakes, but instead take their economies into dangerous territories resulting in the most catastrophic boom-bust cycles. With that being said, It should go without saying the next beat-down that's coming isn’t going to be pretty, and it might give the economy more than just a black-eye... More details to come.
First support held. New Higher High ahead. Long.The 1D Channel Up (orange dotted parallel lines on RSI = 60.002, MACD = 15.140, Highs/Lows = 0.88036, B/BP = 28.2960) successfully tested its 1st potential rebound point at 2,791.75 as you can see on the first curve (blue). There is always a possibility to extend as low as 2,775 (2nd potential rebound point - second curve) and make a full Higher Low, but technically it has resumed the uptrend on 4H (Highs/Lows = 6.0357, ADX = 26.076) and should not look back. A new long has been added at 2,795 with TP = the 2,878.00 ATH, with the previous TP also intact = 2,854.75. An additional long will be added at 2,775 if needed.
1D Channel Up intact. Long.The 1D Channel Up is slowly (RSI = 60.850) but surely (MACD = 19.060, Highs/Lows = 19.3929, B/BP = 44.3660) rising towards the ATH (all time highs) at 2,878. In the meantime it may print a small pull back on the double curve pattern, but will only be a Higher Low and will be bought. As seen on the chart this curve pattern is recurring. Long, TP = 2,854.75.
Consolidation on 4H. Still a lower gap to fill. Short.S&P has entered a consolidation on 4H with a Rectangle (yellow box) dominating the trade since the 2,700 support was tested (neutral RSI, STOCH, Williams, CCI, Highs/Lows). 1D remains bearish (MACD = -3.140, B/BP = -27.8660) but since it is now on neutral RSI, Highs/Lows, the downside is limited to 2,683.75. We update the TP to 2,685. This means that the Channel Up on 1D is near its technical Higher Low and after 2,685 will crise to at least 2,785 again.
Technical correction on 1D. Short.The index is on an important break out point on the 1D Channel Up as if 2,710 breaks then the pattern will go for a complete Higher Low swing at 2,675. With 1H oversold (RSI, STOCHRSI, Williams, CCI), 5H on near exhaustion levels (RSI = 25.774) and 1D on very bearish Highs/Lows = -48.5357, B/BP = -44.0520, we expect a price near 2,680 before any meaningful recovery. Short, TP = 2,675.
Bear Market Bounce? Descending Triangle Short TargetThe next leg down (when measured from peak to baseline) has us stopping right before we hit "bear market" territory. From the current high (open/close) a close beneath 2298.296 puts us below the 20% threshold, and while we may dip to this area, I'm not so certain we will close a session beneath this spot (not yet, anyways). I see two possible scenarios, the 1st is if the market caves fast and we begin the next leg immediately, the 2nd includes a possible bounce within the descending triangle formation before completion of the pattern. I would like to point out, that if there is a bounce at the 2440 area which retraces higher than 50% of the immediate fall, that would indicate a possible reversal due to the weakness of the pattern breakout. The latest I see this playing out by is mid-June, though it could happen at any time before then.
HOW TO MAKE MONEY WHEN ALL SPECULATORS ARE LOOSING First of all, this is a long-term investing style, if you are not that kind of person then it’s not for you.
Let’s say you can spare $500 a month.
By allowing dollar cost averaging into just 3 index funds, $300 into one that holds total US stock market, $100 into once that hold foreign stock market and $100 into one that hold US bonds – you can say you hold almost every investment in the world that’s worth owning.
Every month you buy more
If market has dropped your present investment now have more value, so now you buy more shares than before
If market goes up your money buys you fewer shares
By making this strictly disciplined investment at start of every month, you prevent your emotions from putting more money in market when market is very high ( and it’s very overvalued) and refusing to buy more after market has crashed and now ( things are cheap but for speculators now it’s risky)
According to Ibbotson Associates, the leading finical research firm, if you invested $12,000 in s&p 500 stock index at beginning of SEP 1929, 10 years later you would have only $7224 left but if you started investing $100 every month then buy August 1939 you would have made $15,571.
THAT’S THE POWER OF DISCiPLINE BUYING AND EVEN IN FACE OF GREAT DEPRESSION AND WORST BEAR MARKETS (2007).
YOU CAN MAKE MONEY WHEN ALL OTHERS ARE LOSSING, PROVIDED THAT:
1. YOU INVEST IN INDEX FUNDS ( FOR DIVERSIFICATION) NEVER INVEST IN A SINGLE STOCK
2. YOU DO INVEST NO MATTER WHAT AT START OF EVERY MONTH
3. HAVE ATTITUDE TOWARDS MARKETS OF “I DON’T KNOW WHERE IT’S GOING AND I DON’T CARE”
Reference: the intelligent investor by Benjamin graham
www.booktopia.com.au
S&P 500 Drawdowns - VIX & SKEW & Yearly High and LowIf you look at the VIX, the SKEW and the yearly high & lows of the S&P 500, you get a pretty good idea of the strength of the trend or the drawdowns. The lowest indicator is a sum up of all four values and gets RED as soon as 3 of those indicators are in a downtrend.
Long S&P500 off pennant continuation patternLong on S&P based on pennant formation, repeatedly tested support at 233 (.236 fib), and high volume displayed at fake below support suggesting demand below 233.
Intention is Long entry at retests of 233.5, with SL at 231.5 and TP at 240.
Uncertainty surrounding Trump rally could well lead to a breakdown of support, particularly in response to news and/or economic releases.
S&P Short - High Risk - Great RewardThis might be a great time to short the SPX. Despite being on a crazy bull trend, this point looks great for some shorts.
Low volume - Volume divergence.
RSI overbought - RSI divergence.
R3 Fib pivot broken by a lot (overbought signal).
2300 Psychological resistance
Resistance that goes back to April 2016.
Reward to Risk Ratio : 2.8 to 1.
SPX500 Long-Term Forecast2016/11/17. S&P 500 stock index forecast for next months and years.
S&P forecast for November 2016.
The forecast for beginning of November 2168. Maximum value 2266, while minimum 2010. Averaged index value for month 2146. S&P 500 at the end 2138, change for November -1.38%.
S&P 500 forecast for December 2016.
The forecast for beginning of December 2138. Maximum value 2236, while minimum 1982. Averaged index value for month 2116. S&P 500 at the end 2109, change for December -1.36%.
S&P forecast for January 2017.
The forecast for beginning of January 2109. Maximum value 2232, while minimum 1980. Averaged index value for month 2107. S&P 500 at the end 2106, change for January -0.14%.
S&P 500 forecast for February 2017.
The forecast for beginning of February 2106. Maximum value 2229, while minimum 1977. Averaged index value for month 2104. S&P 500 at the end 2103, change for February -0.14%.
S&P forecast for March 2017.
The forecast for beginning of March 2103. Maximum value 2309, while minimum 2047. Averaged index value for month 2159. S&P 500 at the end 2178, change for March 3.57%.
S&P 500 forecast for April 2017.
The forecast for beginning of April 2178. Maximum value 2311, while minimum 2049. Averaged index value for month 2180. S&P 500 at the end 2180, change for April 0.09%.
S&P forecast for May 2017.
The forecast for beginning of May 2180. Maximum value 2346, while minimum 2080. Averaged index value for month 2205. S&P 500 at the end 2213, change for May 1.51%.
S&P 500 forecast for June 2017.
The forecast for beginning of June 2213. Maximum value 2352, while minimum 2086. Averaged index value for month 2218. S&P 500 at the end 2219, change for June 0.27%.
S&P forecast for July 2017.
The forecast for beginning of July 2219. Maximum value 2470, while minimum 2190. Averaged index value for month 2302. S&P 500 at the end 2330, change for July 5.00%.
S&P 500 forecast for August 2017.
The forecast for beginning of August 2330. Maximum value 2459, while minimum 2181. Averaged index value for month 2323. S&P 500 at the end 2320, change for August -0.43%.
S&P forecast for September 2017.
The forecast for beginning of September 2320. Maximum value 2336, while minimum 2072. Averaged index value for month 2233. S&P 500 at the end 2204, change for September -5.00%.
S&P 500 forecast for October 2017.
The forecast for beginning of October 2204. Maximum value 2295, while minimum 2035. Averaged index value for month 2175. S&P 500 at the end 2165, change for October -1.77%.
GREEN- All-time High
RED- Weekly Low(s)
RED-CHANNEL- Latest Mid-Term (Daily) SHORT CHANNEL "Broken 09th of Nov 2016- Event US Presidential Elections"
Current Long Positions and looking to add for future trades.
Possible H&S on US indices compositePotential H&S; Breaking of the green trendline indicates the pattern wont form; Breaking of the red one would be entry for the set up indicated on chart (short position). Atention to the simetry between the next major support and the percentage from the head to neck line of H&S.
S&P500 - MONTHLY FORECASTHello Traders!
The very interesting situation in the S&P500 index (ES). Suppose, that the market can take a form of Horizontal Triangle (EWA/EWP HT 3-3-3-3-3) So, we will try to buy near 1-st Strong Buyer's Support and take long position at the price 1871.00 (863 843 lots). The price target - 2089.00, our hedging risk T/P - 2035.00, S/L - 1870.00 (Of course S/L 1870.00 it's the approximately price, the accurate enter to the market, will produce by the detailed EWA/EWP on 1 minute chart, using Market Profile, Volume, Footprint, Depth of Market&Order Flow analysis) If you want to see the video of our trading, be active! Subscribe and vote for us!
Sincerely yours, Powerful Traders.