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Standardandpoor500

SPX - We expect more weakness ahead of the FOMCWe turn bearish on SPX as the FED meeting is less than a month away. We expect elevated volatility and weakness to continue ahead of the meeting. At the moment, we actually think it is very likely that weakness will remain persistent even after the FED meeting and interest rate hike. In our opinion, higher interest rates in the U.S. pose a substantial threat to further rise of SPX in short-term, medium-term as well as long-term. Our change of view is supported by recent failure of major U.S. indices to reverse to the upside. In addition to that, a change in technical indicators from neutral to bearish also supports our thesis. Because of that we would like to set a new short-term price target for SPX to 4 292 USD; we would also like to set a medium-term price target to 4 222 USD. Illustration 1.01 Picture above shows the daily chart of SPX and its RSI. We expect the price to reach a new low below 4 222.62 USD. Meanwhile we expect RSI to reach a higher low in comparison to its recent low on 27th January 2021 (which was equal approximately 24 points). Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI failed to break its medium-term bearish structure. Stochastic continues to decline which is bearish. MACD reversed to the downside which is bearish as well. DM+ and DM+ also show bearish conditions in the market. ADX shows relatively flat movement which reflects recent choppy price action in the SPX. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI continues to develop bearish structure. Same applies to MACD and Stochastic. DM+ and DM- are bearish too. ADX increases which suggests the prevailing trend is regaining momentum. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Support and resistance Short-term support coincides with our short-term price target of 4 292 USD. Support 1 coincides with our medium-term price target of 4 222 USD. Short-term resistance lies at 4 595.31 USD and Resistance 1 sits at 4 748.83 USD. The major resistance level can be found at the all-time high value of 4 818.62 USD. Please feel free to express your own ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
4
S&P500 | Price Action Analysis!Hi, Quite "interesting" times ahead, yes? Over a long period of time, I would like to paint a technical picture of the S&P 500, let's analyze it a bit. Lately, the price has printed some bearish signs and possibly it's not over yet but it depends on some breakouts. Let's start from the beginning. The first bearish sign came in after the 20th January Daily candle close. After that, the long-lasting higher highs and higher lows got broken. Later the fall continued, plus the price pushed it below EMA200 - also haven't seen it since the end of May 2020. So, technically we got that "alert" at end of January but let's look further. After the price of SPY traded some days below EMA200 it got a bullish volume from the previously worked support level but the volume wasn't strong enough to push it above the strong area around 4550. Another sign that bulls are weak - lower high was printed around 4550. Basically the current price of S&P trades between the two strong areas: resistance ~4550, support ~4300. S, if anybody searching for breakout possibilities then these levels should be on your watchlist. The price is approaching a lower price level and the overall short-term tendency is bearish so let's observe a support area around 4300 and what will happen if the Daily candle gets a close below 4.3k. A Daily candle close below the prementioned price level will activate a bearish shart pattern called Head & Shoulders. In general, I'm not the biggest fan of chart patterns but if I do analysis then I use them to get a bit more information from the market. So, it will trigger the bearish chart pattern (candle close below the H&S neckline), it will print a new lower low and the strong area has been broken. Considering H&S target (Target = from Head to the neckline, copy/paste, neckline to target - shown with white dotted lines), considering channel projection, considering the waves of AB=CD then it should be land around 4000. Inside the marked landing zone is also the 20% slump from the AHT. "Officially" the SP500 price is on the bearish market after it has seen at least 20% correction. Considering correction at the end of 2018, then it will also act as a support - bounced back up after a 20% drop from the top. SUMMARY: We have seen some bearish signs, a Daily candle below 4,3k will bring it more so be patient and if you want to enter in some certain stocks then do it partially. Do not put all-in in one price level because, as said previously, the times are interesting. If the price reaches around my shown landing zone then it would be great to start building your positions from there but still, be cautious! To end it with a positive tone in mind then a bullish breakout would be a Daily candle close above 4600 ;) Regards, Vaido
U
by VaidoVeek
1
AAPL analysisIt looks like NASDAQ:AAPL is trying to come back up to break and close above the green line .If it succeeds to do so , then there is a high probability that it reaches the (200-203) area with a possible continuation towards the 210 mark , depending on how the market behaves around the 200-203 area. (The market must act with bullish strength around the 200-203 area in order to continue up to the 210 ) In fact if the market succeeds to break and close above the 210 , it would be reasonable to aim for the 255 mark as a second target . On the other hand , if the attempt(s) to close above the green area fails , then the market might go down to the red area (155-157) which if broken , has a high probability to send price downwards to around the 137.5 .
NASDAQ:AAPL
by StockAnalystPro
Buy the bounce on the EMA 50Since february 2020 a green candle has been seen round 16 times on the top of the EMA50. For 13 times out of 16 SPY took +2.62% in the next 5 days. Sometimes much more on a longer period. In order to trade this pattern the best is to buy at the closing, and to put a close stop loss (something round 0.3%...). This kind of stop loss worked 12 times out of 13... The Risk/Reward is here very high.... I put a 4x leverage, and I bought IBUS500 at 4711 (stop-loss round 4697 (= -0.36%) ). Yesterday SPY bounced on the support, it was also a good idea to play it. Hope you done it. For the Nasdaq100 it widely crossed the support, and then came back. The best option was to wait the bounce, in order to avoid this whipsaw. Some bulls has been caught by their stop-loss. Hope you like this idea, I would be happy to talk about it.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Nicolas_Pradel
4
S&P500 Fall Time (Over Bought)Hi as we ca see we have a Bearish Divergence between Price and MACD which is a sign of trend reversal and retracement . we have Price Action analysis with FIbots and Divergences which is having Confluences with each other and it can be used as some certain levels and Targeting areas we have specified some levels as our targets and a time speculation indicator and it can be even earlier to the specified time in the time forecasted. there are lots of fundamental reasoning behind this market correction too we can point at some USA's political havocs and Biden's Impeachment and probably China's market war on US... please comment you ideas
UShort
by BitonGroup
2
SPX500USD ES1! SnP500 2021 Oct 04 WeekES1! SPX500USD ES1! SnP500 2021 Oct 04 Week Market exited the uptrend channel last week with conviction. On daily chart, two lower lows and 1 lower high now gives us a down channel = change in trend. Weekly: High volume ultra wide spread down bar close below halfway of bar = weakness Daily: Up bar closing off high = weakness Daily: Broke previous high but closed in middle of bar, supply was present = weakness. H4: Market returned to test a previous rotation and also UHV bar A and closed off high - weakness. Pink down channel also drawn in H4. Entry will be based on price reaction at these levels. Long (Test and Accept) | Short (Test and Reject) 4550 4530 4472 4455 - 4441 4415 4389 4367 4345 4260 Like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week ahead.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
S&P500 : NEW BULLISH IMPULSE COMING...The past represents the future... Welcome back Traders, Investors, and Community! Check the Links on BIO and If you LIKE this analysis, Please support our Idea by hitting the LIKE 👍 button Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write your own in the comment box . We will be glad for this. Feel free to request any pair/instrument analysis or ask any questions in the comment section below. Have a Good Day Trading !
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by FOREXN1
6
Is S&P 500 guiding bitcoin atm?If the CME will test the orange trendline, there will be space for another temporary dip for BTC. All the indexes are down today (Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russel). The difference from the last May dip is that in this case, we don't have FUD...instead we have good news like El Salvador Two days ago the pubblic Italian TV did a show talking about Bitcoin VS Banks. They had a very honest and precise narrative, and at the end the banks looked like monsters. Is the revolution more near?
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by STOIOMA
Nonfarm-Payrolls expected effect on S&P500 (SPX) and EUR/USDDuring the last 10 months the correlation of surprises for ADP Nonfarm employment change and Nonfarm payrolls is positive (58%). This means that if we saw a negative ADP nonfarm employment change on Wednesday, we should see a negative nonfarm payroll today. This is however not certain. In fact, the February ADP came out with a -34% negative surprise while the NFP came out with a +108% positive surprise. The historical correlation of the nonfarm payrolls with the same day SPX return is around 6%. This is a non-significant positive correlation. On average, the SPX tend to register a positive return independently from the nonfarm payrolls report. For this reason, even if we are seeing a negative NFP figure today, the market is still probably gonna perform well. The average return of SPX on the NFP publication day is +0.48% (+0.80% if we exclude negative historical returns). Therefore, we expect a positive move with an accumulation in the $4450-$4470 area. Similar to the SPX, the EUR/USD cross tends to react positively to the NFP announcement in the 15/60 minutes period after the NFP announcement. In this respect, we expect a positive increase of around +15/+20 pips in the 15/60 minutes period after the NFP publication.
TVC:SPXLong
by CucabarraTrading
S&P 500 still near ATHs. So when top? Where bottom?Although stocks are up 100% from their March 2020 lows and up 200% from their 2000-2008 peaks, I still think there is an even bigger move coming. The way the system is structured and the direction the world is heading are all telling me that we have more upside. But will there be a break? I think there will be, but it will be a buy the dip opportunity. In my opinion the SPX500 has a decent chance of having a 10-20% dip before the end of the year as the last two major dips it had were in Sep-Nov 2020 and the market is already up 30% above its Feb 2020 highs. So having a decent correction wouldn't indicate a bear market. After the March crash I doubt we will see a 30-50% correction in quite some time. However once SPX starts reaching 4500-4800 I believe it will pull back down to 4000 and could even get to 3600. So the first dip to buy is 4000 and then the next one 3600. Getting to 3600 means that the vaccine/election pump has fully retraced and that would be a great place to buy.
FX:SPX500
by BitcoinMacro
SPX week preview - Positive accumulation week - Tension in AsiaSPX recovered quickly from last week’s flash correction on Monday. After such quick recoveries the market tends to accumulate in a slightly positive territory. The tension in the Asian market forces US capitals to move back to the US market. This movement will reinforce the USD currency and therefore weight a bit on the equity. The correlation between international markets will probably push US markets in a negative territory during Tuesday but this should not have a dramatic effect on the weekly performance. Our overview tends therefore to be quite neutral. Selling the 4325 put strike and buying back the 4320 seems an acceptable decision till the end of the week.
TVC:SPX
by CucabarraTrading
1
SPX 500, Ascending-Wedge Developed, Bearish Declines Follow!Hello, Welcome to this analysis about the S&P 500 Index, we are looking at the 4-hour timeframe perspectives. As I detected in my analysis the index has completed a decisive formation that will lie ground for further bearish continuations to the downside. On a broader scale, the index reached high values and moved into overbought conditions as money printing in history was never higher than it was in the last months it is a logical consequence that asset-price inflation results out of it besides this asset-price inflation there is also real consumer good inflation rolling on and accelerating especially in 2021 higher inflation rates are marked. Like most times the central banks and monetary policy does not look after these critical developments rather they continue printing money like never before, an important conclusion is a question of how long this will hold the main market to the upside which has fastly recovered since the corona breakdowns. From the technical side when looking at my chart we can watch there how the index has formed this major ascending-wedge-formation marked with the black boundaries. Within this formation, the index has a coherent wave-count with the waves A to C already completed and after the finalization of wave C showed up with this heavy bearish declines moving below the lower boundary of the formation which completed the formation bearishly to the downside and activated the lower ascending-wedge-targets marked in my chart in blue within the 4062 level. For now, we can expect the confirmational breakout development below the lower boundary and especially below the 55-EMA in red to hold on which is the source of the further bearish continuations to the downside. Once the targets are reached it needs to be shown how the index reacts to them and if there is the possibility for stabilization because when this does not happen the index will continue bearishly in the bearish-continuation-zone below the targets. In this manner, thank you for watching my analysis about USDCHF, great when you support it with a like and follow or comment for more market insight! "The key to success is to focus on goals, not obstacles." Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
TVC:SPX
by VincePrince
13
S&P Bounces Off Trend Channel... Again!Good news! We have another bounce today off the yearly trend line on $SPY. We've been tracking SPY and this trend channel for awhile and this has been our 6th bounce off the bottom of the channel! This trend channel has proven to be a good buy opportunity whenever we bounce off it, even though SPY has seem resistant at breaking new highs. I expect bullish momentum to continue forward as monetary policies remain the same after this weeks FOMC. Inflation is expected to rise but since interest rates remain low, it will continue to be a buyers market. Something interesting to be looking for is next weeks Fed Balance Sheet report. There has been a high amount of cash sitting on sidelines which in turn compels high amounts of liquidity flowing into Fed reverse repurchases (Reverse Repo). If we see lower numbers on the next report, this means institutional money is flowing back into the markets.
AMEX:SPYLong
by WaisTrades
1