The S&P500 index (SPX) made a major bullish break-out in accordance to our previous analysis (June 17, see chart below), where we clearly stated that a break above the 1.5-year (Fibonacci) Channel Up pattern it would indicate a transition to a new (blue) Channel Up: As you can see that happened and the index is extending that blue Channel, with the long-term...
The S&P500 index (SPX) is having another very strong bullish month, following the red 1M candle of April, which was the first after 5 straight months of profit. Many might be wondering why a deeper correction didn't come at this stage and the answer is simply that it's not yet the time for it. We present to you today what we call the "Ultimate stock market cheat...
S&P500 (SPX) is already going even better than our bottom buy signal last week (May 02, see chart below), having topped the 4H Channel Up, considerably above the 4H MA200: The index closed yesterday above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since April 11. Last time it did this was on November 03 2023 and after 5 days of consolidation, it broke...
This is a short-term outlook on the S&P500 (SPX) following yesterday's Fed Rate Decision. The short-term pattern on the 4H time-frame is a Channel Up and is giving us some important developments. Even though yesterday's attempt to stay above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) failed, the index managed to stay on the Channel Up bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) and is...
The S&P500 index (SPX) is trading at the top of the 17-month Channel Up with the 1W RSI overbought and at its highest (78.00) in more than 4 years (since January 2020). Once it breaks below its MA level (yellow trend-line), it will be a sell confirmation, which is the signal that flashed on February 20 2023 and July 31 2023. The minimum decline within this...
The S&P500 index (SPX) has reached the top of the long-term Channel Up pattern that started on the October 13 2022 market bottom. This development is a strong sell signal on its own but it gets even stronger as the 1D RSI has been within a Channel Down since December 19, while the price was rising within a Channel Up, which is a technical Bearish Divergence. The...
The S&P500 index (SPX) is unfolding today the 3rd green 1D candle in a row, having gained back the vast majority of losses sustained last week. The December 28 rejection took place just below the 4820 All Time High (ATH) and as the 1D MACD is printing a sequence similar to the July 27 2023 peak, we expect the price to make a bearish reversal before the week is...
If you've been following my ideas over the last few weeks, you'll know that I have a macro bearish view going into next year. I think the market is setup to drop 30-40%+. I know everyone is calling for new highs (Tom Lee, looking at you), but it's not going to happen IMO. We're not in a bull market, this is still just a bullish bounce within a bear trend. I'm...
The S&P500 index (SPX) is turning sideways following the enormous rally of November, which is close to being the best in history. That is a natural technical reaction by the market in an attempt to normalize the largely overbought 1D time-frame. This sideways trade that indicates a potential exhaustion, is complimented by the Bearish Divergence on the 4H RSI,...
The S&P500 maintains its steady uptrend since the October 27th bottom, inside a Channel Up pattern. This (on a projected +7.15% 2nd bullish wave) targets above the R3 July 27th High (TP = 4,650). Being however overbought on the 4H technical outlook (RSI = 70.276, MACD = 22.060, ADX = 31.456), we will be ready to short if the price crosses under the 4H MA50 and...
The S&P500 index had a green session yesterday as the price made a Lower Low at the bottom of the Channel Down and seems to be rebounding. Technically that is the bullish leg towards the new Lower High, with the previous being priced on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This Channel Down however, on a 1D RSI basis as well, resembles the August - October 2022...
The S&P500 index reached on Friday the bottom of the 3 month Channel Down and today's big (1d) green candles shows us that the Lower Low is most likely priced. Technically this is the most ideal buy entry for a rise towards the top of the pattern. Every top/ Lower High reached at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current...
The S&P500 / US500 is trading inside a larget Bearish Megaphone pattern, which is rising lately to price a Lower High on the Falling Resistance. This creates the potential for two Channel Up patterns, a dotted one more aggressive and a dashed one less aggressive. The determining factor is the 4hour MA50. So far it is holding and favors the more aggressive...
S&P500 has had a strong rejection on the MA200 (4h) level today. It happened after it rose by +4.70% from last week's low, the same degree of rise as the September 1st Lower High did. Since the pattern is a Falling Megaphone, selling is prioritized. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the first green (4h) candle. Targets: 1. 4300 (-2.40% decline like the September 7th pull...
The S&P500 is technically oversold on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 32.251, MACD = -54.210, ADX = 44.088) but is gathering some bullish momentum on 4H (RSI = 41.446) as the price hit the 1D MA200 and bottom of the Megaphone to form a LL. In addition, it hit the 0.5 Fibonacci level from March's low. This has high chances of evolving into a technical LH rebound,...
Hello, Welcome to this analysis about the S&P 500 Index and the 2-hour timeframe perspectives. Recently the index managed to bounce initially in the structure in the 1400-EMA marked in red in my chart and is forming this main bull-flag-formation in the structure marked in blue from where an initial relief rally is now positive as the FED also firstly stopped...
S&P500 / US500 is highly volatile these first two weeks of September, trading sideways on a relatively wide margin, using the 1day MA50 as the pivot. As long as the 1day MA100 supports, this is a similar consolidation that we witnessed after the market's prior bottom inside the 11 month Channel Up. Both the 1day RSI and MACD indicate that we might be halfway...
The S&P500 index has hit the 0.382 Fibonacci level after a 4H Golden Cross that turned the 4H technical outlook bullish (RSI = 59.782, MACD = 9.210, ADX = 36.280). As mentioned before, this is the same fractal of December 2022 to January 2023. Holding the 0.382 was key to sustaining a rise to the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. We remain bullish on S&P500, targeting...