S&P500: Closing over 4,330 can extend this relentless rally.The S&P500 index broke over Channel Up 1, which was the primary pattern since November 3rd 2022, and is only a few point away before testing R1 (4,330) for the first time since August 16th. The 1D technicals are on excellent bullish levels (RSI = 66.947, MACD = 39.580, ADX = 22.834) and a candle close over R1, can be enough to extend this relentless rally of the last 3 months. We will take the breakout and aim at R2 (TP = 4,500).
If rejected on R1 though, we will sell on the short term and buy near the 1D MA50 again (same bullish target). A closing under the 1D MA50, will be a sell trigger and we will target the S1 (TP = 4,045).
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S&P500: As long as the 1D MA50 holds, it remains bullish.The S&P500 reached our first TP1 = 4,295 (see previous idea at the bottom) and touched the top of the Channel Up pattern that guided the index out of its November market bottom. Technically this calls for caution as the probabilities of a HH rejection at the top are high, despite the 1D time frame staying on harmonized green technicals (RSI = 62.614, MACD = 30.510, ADX = 17.939).
However as long as the 1D MA50 holds, it is maintaining a diverging Channel Up that can easily cross through R1 (4,330) and target soon the R2 (4,516.50). The potential change of sentiment and long term pattern is evident on the 1D MACD, which is past a Bullish Cross. For as long as those two conditions hold, we will remain bullish (TP1 = 4,330 and TP2 = 4,500).
If the price crosses under the 1D MA50 and the 1D MACD gives a Bearish Cross, we will stop buying and reverse to selling, initially to S1 (TP1 = 4,045) and eventually the bottom of the Channel Up (TP2 = 3,895).
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S&P500: Upside limited to the August 2022 High. Buy the pull bacThe S&P500 index is approaching the top of the Megaphone pattern inside the wider Channel Up. The 1D time frame is bullish technically (RSI = 59.471, MACD = 22.900, ADX = 16.182) but only moderately. If the price crosses over the Megaphone, we will buy the breakout and target the top of the Channel Up (TP = 4,295). If not, we will buy the pull back near the 1D MA50, which is supporting since March 30th and target the R2 and August 16th High (TP = 4,330).
If the index though crosses and closes under the 1D MA50, we will sell and target the S1 (TP = 4,045) and further closing under the S1, will target the bottom of the Megaphone and 1D MA200 (TP = 3,985).
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S&P500 rebounding on the MA50 (1d) but be careful if broken.The S&P500 index is on the first green (1d) candle after an almost test of the MA50 (1d). This level has been holding since March 30th, so consider it a short term buy entry.
The short term pattern is a Megaphone inside a long term Channel Up.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the market price.
2. Sell upon a candle closing under the MA50 (1d).
3. Buy at 3980 (the MA200 1d).
Targets:
1. 4250 (Megaphone top).
2. 3980 (the MA200 1d).
3. 4330 (Resistance 2).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) has a clear long term Support Zone (39.00- 33.50). If the MA50 (1d) breaks, it can be used as additional confirmation to plan your long term buy entry.
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S&P500 on the 1day MA50 againS&P500 / US500 approached the 1day MA50 again. This level has been supporting since the March 29th break out (almost 1 month).
Buy as long as it holds and target the dashed Rising Resistance at 4230.
Sell if the price closes under the 1day MA50 and target the Megaphone's bottom at 4030.
The 1day RSI is consolidating inside a Rectangle whose highs and lows give accurate sell/ buy signals inside the Megaphone.
Previous chart:
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S&P500 Trade the Megaphone's breakoutThe S&P500 is trading inside a Megaphone pattern, which in December 2022 broke to the downside and hit Fibonacci 0.236 of the Channel Up.
With the 1day MA50 supporting however for 40 straight days, it is equally probable to see an upward breakout.
If the price crosses over the Megaphone, buy and target the top of the long term Channel Up at 4350.
If it crosses under the Megaphone, sell and target the bottom at 3950.
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S&P500: The Megaphone gave us the perfect BuyThe S&P500 gave us the buy entry we were seeking at the bottom of the Megaphone, which happened to be on the 1D MA50 as well, a standard support level on uptrends. The 1D technicals are neutral (RSI = 52.091, MACD = 17.390, ADX = 22.702) which indicates that there is upside potential to this move.
On our latest trading plan we set a TP = 4,200 and this is intact. On the long term the Channel Up is targeting R2 (TP = 4,330) which is the August 16th 2022 High. If the price pulls back we will buy on S2 (3,925).
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S&P500 Strong buy signal on the Channel Up.The S&P500 is trading inside a Channel Up for more than 6 months.
The price is now between the 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci levels, a zone that was the last consolidation during the previous two rallies to the top of the Channel Up.
The Target Zone is between 4280 - 4350, with 4280 being the 1.236 Fibonacci level where the previous Higher High was formed.
The RSI is still on a Rising Support as both previous rallies.
Previous chart:
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S&P500: Buy conditions inside a Megaphone pattern.The S&P500 index is approaching the 4H MA200 inside a month long Megaphone pattern. The 4H technicals are deep in red (RSi = 38.959, MACD = 4.530, ADX = 22.263) and inside this pattern when that took place, buy signals have started to emerge.
We are buyers and target the pattern's top (TP = 4,200) as long as the price doesn't break under the Megaphone or closes under the 1D MA50. If it does, we will short, expecting a bearish breakout targeting near the S2 (TP = 3,925).
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S&P500 Still bullish but sell under this level.S&P500 is extending its rise inside the long term Channel Up.
The MA100 (4h) is supporting as it did in the previous two Higher High waves.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy as long as the price is closing over the MA100 (4h).
2. Sell if it closes under it.
Targets:
1. 4220 (+11.00% rise).
2. 3950 (Channel's bottom).
Tips:
1. Both medium term corrections inside the Channel Up, started when a candle closed under the MA100 (4h).
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This is a continuation of this trading plan:
S&P500: One last bullish leg before a new correctionThe S&P500 is pulling back today after it hit the 0.5 Fibonacci level on Friday. The 1D technicals remain bullish (RSI = 61.663, MACD = 33.310, ADX = 42.403) as the current rise is the bullish leg that started on the Higher Low of the Channel Up and technically peaks near 4,250. That is our short term target and don't see a correction before that.
Of course we need to take into account the R1 Zone, which has formed tops 4 times already since June 2022 but this time the 1D RSI looks more like the July 29th-August 8th 2022, which was a stepping stone before a blow off top at 4,330.
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S&P500: Breaking key Resistance but the 1W MA50 has to holdThe S&P500 crossed this week over the LH trendline of the August 15th rejection on the 1W MA50. Proportionally this can be compared to the April 18th 2016 breakout. The key for a sustainable uptrend on that occasion was the 1W MA50. It held twice and sustained a long term uptrend. With the 1W technicals turning marginally bullish (RSI = 56.614, MACD = 37.390, ADX = 36.682) and the RSI on a similar HL trendline with 2016, we expect a few weeks of sideways trading and if the 1W MA50 holds, we have a legitimate case for a new long term Bull Cycle.
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S&P500: The 1W MA100 and 0.5 Fib are the biggest hurdles.The S&P500 gives a very clear impression as to what the situation is on the 1W timeframe. Despite the recovery early this year with the index crossing above the 1 year LH trendline, thus getting out of the Bear Cycle, the 1W technicals are basically neutral (RSI = 56.583, MACD = 37.340, ADX = 36.258). A big part of it is because the index has been ranging inside the R1 and S1 Zones since November.
Key levels to watch are 1) the 1W MA100, which hasn't been hit August 22nd and hasn't made a weekly closing above since August 15th and 2) the 0.5 Fibonacci level, which despite having candle's crossing over it, hasn't made a closing since (again) August 15th.
According to this, a last pullback to S1 is possible and then the decisive rebound that will make a Higher High on the 5 month Channel Up on the 0.618 Fibonacci, below R2 (TP = 4,300).
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S&P500: This may be the rally that turns the 1WMA50 into SupportThe S&P500 has completed 3 straight green weeks, the strongest 3 week rally since October 24th. As we zoom out on the 1W time frame where the technicals have just only turned marginally bullish (RSI = 55.603, MACD = 28.700, ADX = 34.959) we can see an attempt to form a Channel Up. The 1W RSI is slightly pulling downwards and since it started rising back in May, this was a pull back signal within a greater bullish wave. Those are clearly shown on your chart. The June 13th-August 15th wave rose by 18.90% and the October 10th-December 12th wave rose by 18.40%.
This suggests that there is still much room left to rise on this wave, thus we remain bullish aiming at another +18.40% rise (TP = 4,500). It is worth making clear at this point that if another such bullish wave is materialized, then the 1W MA50 will be turned into a Support for good. And this trendline tends to be the standard Support level during Bull Cycles.
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S&P500 Long and strong on this Channel UpThe S&P500 is extending the rise that we called 2 weeks ago at the bottom (see chart at the end) of the long term Channel Up.
Target (1) was easily and quickly hit and as the price is approaching Resistance Zone (1), we get the potential conditions for a short term pull back.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy any pull back under Resistance Zone (1).
Targets:
1. 4220 (top of the Channel Up and +11.00% rise).
Tips:
1. The MACD (1d) is approaching a Resistance level that has previously initiated short term pull backs.
2. Ultimate long term target is Resistance (2) at 4330, which will fill the gap of August 16th.
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This is a continuation of this trading plan:
S&P500 First 4hour Golden Cross in 2.5 months.S&P500 formed the first 4hour Golden Cross since January 16th, breaking above Resistance A.
The RSI is on a Rising Support, same with the previous bullish leg of January.
Following the Golden Cross, the price pulled back to Fibonacci 0.5 and then resumed the uptrend.
Regardless of this potential pullback, we remain bullish on the S&P500 index, with our Target intact at 4280.
Previous chart:
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S&P500: Channel Up with Golden Cross closing the February Gaps.The S&P500 index formed a Channel Up with the 4H technicals indicating a healthy uptrend (RSI = 63.246, MACD = 19.720, ADX = 49.272). The 4H RSI is on Higher Lows of its own and the 4H MA50 is about to cross over the 4H MA200 and form the first Golden Cross since January 17th. A pullback will be an excellent opportunity for lower risk buys.
The Fibonacci retracement levels act as solid Resistance and Support zones so use them to your advantage if you trade short term. We expect R1 and R2 to get hit and as pointed out in our previous idea, we remain bullish with TP1 = 4,080 and TP2 = 4,160.
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S&P500: Is the Recession danger over?The S&P500 on the 1W time frame remains technically neutral (RSI = 51.005, MACD = 10.190, ADX = 35.849). Large reason why it has done so is because it has been ranging between the 1W MA100 and 1W MA200 for 22 weeks (154 days). That is a significant period that isn't that indicative of a bottom formation. There is still a large portion (could even be the majority) of market participants that believe we haven't skipped the danger of an even longer Recession.
What better way to look at it than compare the index with the last Recession, the subprime mortgage on in 2007-2008. We see that for some period of time, that Recession traded also between the 1W MA100 and 1W MA200, while also breaking shortly over the LH trend-line of the Cycle. It then started to decline aggressively on a weekly pace under the 1W MA200, something we haven't (yet) seen today, especially with the last two 1W candles being green. Also the MACD is now trading upwards after a Double Bottom while in 2008 it traded downwards.
Bottom-line, it is more likely that the danger of a Recession is over but a closing over the 1W MA100 would be ideal to confirm that. What do you think?
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S&P500 bottomed on the 5 month Channel Up. Buy.S&P500 hit the exact bottom of the long term Channel Up pattern and remains under the 4hour MA50.
This is an instant buy opportunity technically. The 4hour RSI double bottomed.
This price action looks very much like the previous Channel Lows of December and October.
We buy on the current market price. A crossing above the 4hour MA50 confirms it. Target 1 is 4100 (Fibonacci 0.618) and Target 2 is 4200 (Fibonacci 0.786).
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S&P500 Exceptional buy.S&P500 reached the bottom of the 4 month Channel Up.
The RSI (1d) is nearly oversold.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 4250 (top of Channel Up and projected +11.20% rise).
Tips:
1. RSI (1d) is forming a huge bottom sequence same with December 19th and September 27th.
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S&P500: Strongest buy opportunity of the next 6 weeks.S&P500 is approaching the HL trend line (started November 3rd 2022) on nearly oversold 1D technicals (RSI = 38.159, MACD = -14.370, ADX = 33.442). The main Support is S1 is at 3885 and the price may touch it as it may form a similar bottom to December 22nd with the 4H RSI needing to turn oversold at 30.000 first.
Regardless of that we are turning long on the S&P for the next 6 weeks, targeting R1 (TP1 = 4,015), R2 (TP2 = 4,075) and R3 (TP3 = 4,190).
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BITCOIN is lagging considerably behind the S&P500. Huge upside.We have Bitcoin on the left and the S&P500 on the right.
Bitcoin is getting rejected on the 1week MA50, while the S&P500 is trading between the 1week MA50 and 1week MA100.
This is a clear sign that Bitcoin is lagging behind the major stock index and that it remains undervalued relative to the rest of the market.
Therefore, Bitcoin's potential on a 2 month timeframe extends as high as the 1week MA100 +/- 32000.
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