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S&P500 What crisis? We're still in a cyclical Bull.This is the S&P500 index (SPX) on the 1M (monthly) time-frame illustrating key levels and zones using the Fibonacci Channel. We focus on the price action and pattern created following the last major crisis, the 2008 housing crash. As you see, since that Bear Cycle correction, S&P500 has been trading within a steady Channel Up and with the use of the Fibonacci retracement levels, we see that the price action has been concentrated almost entirely within the 0.236 - 0.5 Fib Zone. The January market top was above it and made the index strongly correct back into the Zone. In September the price broke below the 0.236 Fib for the first time since May 2020 and the COVID crash and buying demand seems to have kicked in almost immediately as the index is up more than +16%. As a reference, we would like to compare this Channel Up to the one after the 1974 bottom: As you see on the chart above, it was again the 0.236 - 0.5 Fib Zone that dominated the majority of the price action since the 1974 bottom and the August 1987 top that hit and got rejected at the top of the Channel (Fib 1.0) was what led to the October 1987 mega flash crash of 'Black Monday'. Then the index continued rising within the upper Fib Zone of 0.618 - 1.0 even more tightly within 0.786 - 1.0, until it eventually broke above it again in June 1995 in the sequence that led and accelerated the Dotcom Bubble of the 90s into the Crash of 2000. What really helps in identifying the price action's bottom, hence long-term buy entries, within this post 2009 Channel Up, is the 1M RSI. Since June 2010 it has a Support Zone (green that) was hit and started strong rebounds 6 times (including this September). At the same time, there is an evident Lower Lows trend-line since May 2012 that has had contacts turning into rebounds 5 times. All the above occurrences combined (price rebounding on the 0.236 Fib, RSI on the Support Zone and Lower Lows trend-line), are a strong bullish mix giving the best buy signal since the March 2020 COVID crash. And above all, it shows that, at least for the time being, the S&P500 index is still in a Cyclical Bull market and even more so, far from being overbought even on a long-term multi-year scale! Are you still bearish based on the above? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
10
S&P500 Potential 4HMA50 rejection. Resistance & Support in focusOn this analysis we diverge from our usual long-term outlook and instead we look at the (short-term) 4H time-frame where the 4H MA50 (green trend-line) is in focus. S&P500 (SPX) broke below it since yesterday and not only has it failed to recover it but so far has a clear rejection. As long as we trade below it, the first target will be the 3915 Support where a closing (1D) below it, sets course for the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the ultimate Support level of uptrends. A complete Bearish Cross (currently very close to) on the 1D MACD, will largely confirm that view. On the other hand, a break above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), would be a bullish break-out signal and would target the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and Resistance 1 at 4175 in extension. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CME_MINI:ES1!
by TradingShot
S&P500 Critical Support! Hard drop or test of Cycle Resistance?The S&P500 index (SPX) is currently testing and (so far) holding the 4H MA50 (green trend-line), which is not just the Support on the short-term but has been within 2022 the pivotal line that started all selling sequences to a new market Low. As you see on this 4H time-frame chart, since the start of the 2022 Bear Cycle, every time the counter trend rallies made a top on the January 04 Lower Highs trend-line and the 4H MA50 broke afterwards (and closed the day below it), the index never made a Higher High and instead started the bearish legs to a new Lower Low. It can be argued that the rally since the October 13 Low never hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which was the top and where the price got rejected on August 17. The 1D RSI, compared to the previous tops, shows that there should be some fuel left on this rally but the most accurate and confirmed Sell Signal on tops has been when the 1D MACD makes a Bearish Cross. That would target the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1W MA200 (grey trend-line) in extension. On the long-term, as long as we are below the January 04 Lower Highs, we are still in Bear Cycle territory. Ideally we would like to see a break above the 4175 Resistance (1), which would be also above the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), in order to call for an official start to the new Bull Cycle. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CME_MINI:ES1!
by TradingShot
6
S&P500 Time to reveal the real trend.The S&P500 index has been trading within a short-term Channel Down pattern since the October 27 Low on the 4H time-frame. We presented this formation on our last week analysis: The price rebounded at the bottom of the Channel Down and reached its top to form a Lower High. This happens to be also on the Lower Highs trend-line that started after the August 16 High. Since September 12 though, the RSI on the 1D time-frame has been trading on Higher Highs, i.e. showcasing a Bullish Divergence. On top of that, this is the first time since June, that the price didn't drop lower after an oversold 4H RSI but instead rose without any pull-back. Those factors add weight on the bullish case. A candle close above the August 16 trend-line, immediately targets 3925 and then 4040 in extension. The medium-term targets are Resistance 1 (4175) and Resistance 2 (4328). Failure to break the August Resistance though, maintains the Channel Down pattern, targeting first the 3643 Support (1) as a Lower Low. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CME_MINI:ES1!
by TradingShot
9
S&P500 4H RSI oversold but means nothing unless this breaksThe S&P500 (SPX) is having a strong pull-back on the short-term following Powell's remarks during the Press Conference on the Fed's future policy in the aftermath of the +0.75% Rate Hike. The RSI on the 4H time-frame dropped below the 30.000 oversold barrier intraday but that alone has proven to mean nothing in terms of buying power. As you see, every time the RSI turned oversold since June, the price dropped lower eventually. The only signal that has been causing a confirmed rise is a break above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which has caused price rises ranging from +2.26% to +5.18%. Right now the price is even below the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) which is making things worse and as a Channel Down is forming, we may see a slight bounce and then Lower Low as per this data sample since June. If a 4H MA50 breaks happens now, a minimum of +2.26% rise would hit 3925 while a maximum of +5.18% would hit 4040. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CME_MINI:ES1!
by TradingShot
3
S&P500 The inflation crisis is just a minor cyclical event!This is a complete roadmap of the S&P500 index (SPX) on the 1M time-frame, where we have taxonomized its historical trend on Super Cycles and Minor Cycles. As you see, since the Great Depression, we can categorize a whole era (approximately 42 years) as a Super Cycle. Super Cycles tend to end with a massive Recession/ Bear Market. Within the Super Cycle, we've fitted three Minor ones. The first two Minor Cycle within the Super one have ended with a minor corrections (relative to the long-term of course). Based on S&P500's current Super Cycle projection, it appears what we are only heading towards the end of the 1st Minor Cycle of the Super Cycle that started a few years after the 2008 Housing Crisis. As a result the current correction in 2022 due to the very high inflation, is simply viewed as another minor cyclical event at the start of a Super Cycle that is projected to end with a Recession around 2048! For illustration purposes and to help make a better comparison, I have plotted the first two Super Cycles (blue and green trend-lines) on the current one. We can see how thee current one has diverged a bit more than the others, probably thanks to the massive QE since the Housing Crisis. Also notice that since January 1943, the 1M MA300 (red trend-line) has been the ultimate Support and a rebound level on both Super Cycle corrections/ Recessions. This chart simply shows that long-term investors have nothing to be afraid of with this inflation crisis and soon incredible buy opportunities will emerge. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
SP:SPX
by TradingShot
6
S&P500: Bullish for the next 10 days at least.The S&P500 hit the 1D MA100 (green) on Friday for the first time since September 13. The rebound started off a Double Bottom and broke above the dashed Lower Highs trend-line that is consistent with all previous short-term rallies in 2022. Based on that, the price should stay bullish for at least the next 10 days and hit the 1D MA200 (orange). We can even make a case for a potential long-term bullish reversal above the bold black Lower Highs trend-line, as the 1W RSI has been trading within a Channel Up on Higher Lows since June 21, while at the same time the index made Lower Lows. This is a Bullish Divergence on the long-term but we will have time to analyze this in the coming days if the major breakout occurs. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ## ## Also DONATIONS through TradingView coins help our cause of increasing the daily ideas put here for free and reach out more traders like you. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
S&P500 Short-term Rising Wedge ahead of the Fed.The S&P500 is trading within a Rising Wedge pattern since the October 13 Low and which ahead of the Fed Interest Rate Decision tomorrow, should break-out. Until it does, the Support and level to buy is the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which has formed the last two Higher Lows. This should coincide with a Higher Low on the 4H RSI trend-line. As long as it holds, the target will the the 3918.50 Resistance and above that a Higher High within 3990 - 4000. A candle close below the 4H MA50 would constitute a bearish break-out from the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Rising Wedge. In that case the immediate target should be the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). Below that all lower Fibs can be filled. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by TradingShot
3
S&P500: Bullish for the next 10 days at least.The S&P500 hit the 1D MA100 (green) on Friday for the first time since September 13. The rebound started off a Double Bottom and broke above the dashed Lower Highs trend-line that is consistent with all previous short-term rallies in 2022. Based on that, the price should stay bullish for at least the next 10 days and hit the 1D MA200 (orange). We can even make a case for a potential long-term bullish reversal above the bold black Lower Highs trend-line, as the 1W RSI has been trading within a Channel Up on Higher Lows since June 21, while at the same time the index made Lower Lows. This is a Bullish Divergence on the long-term but we will have time to analyze this in the coming days if the major breakout occurs. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ## ## Also DONATIONS through TradingView coins help our cause of increasing the daily ideas put here for free and reach out more traders like you. ##
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by InvestingScope
S&P500 The RSI Divergence. Critical break or make moment!The S&P500 index (SPX) has been rising aggressively since the October 13 bottom and broke again above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) after its two day pull-back. By doing so it hit again the Lower Highs trend-line from the September 12 High. While the price was under this trend-line, the 1D RSI has been under Higher Highs. This peculiar Divergence has been seen another two times since the Bear Market of 2022 started. In fact it has been the exact same pattern on RSI and in the previous sequences it led to a drop. This time the index can invalidate it as there is a gap to fill at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 2022 Bearish Megaphone, on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) within the 0.618 - 0.786 Fibonacci Zone, which is where the previous Lower Highs were formed. Technically, this is all about the 1D candle closing. A close above the price Lower Highs and the RSI Higher Highs, is a bullish break-out signal towards the 1D MA200. A rejection and close below, is a bearish signal towards the 3650 and 3500 lows. Will it break or get rejected in your opinion? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
11
S&P500 Huge confirmation of our bull pattern repeat.Right on the October 13 2022 low, when the CPI number came out higher than expected and the market was in extreme fear mode, we posted the following idea on the S&P500 index (SPX), explaining how fundamentally the report was still lower than the previous month and more importantly how technically the index was flashing some early signs that it would repeat the previous two rebounds on the Megaphone's Lower Lows on February 24 and June 17: As you see, our expectation is so far being materialized as 10 days later, the index hasn't just avoided making a Lower Low going against the majority's belief on the CPI but also rebounded on the exact same day and is testing the October 05 High/ Resistance. This time we will see this in more detail, focusing on the 1D RSI. As you see, when the RSI broke above its Lower Highs trend-line, the rebound basically started and on both previous sequences, it was as early as anyone could get. This time (October 14), it appears to be even earlier. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is just above and if the current Lower High leg follows the previous two, then it should break rather fast and target just above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which as you see is where the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is headed. This trend-line is critical as it was exactly where the August 16 Lower High was made and the price was rejected, so right now is the most important long-term Resistance. As with the previous analysis, we have plotted all Lower Low/ Lower High sequences on top of each other with Blue being January - March, Orange April - August and Grey August to October (now). It is evident that all are very similar and compared to the previous ones, the current S&P500 levels constitute still a good buy opportunity, at least on the medium-term. For the long-term, the price has to break above the Bearish Megaphone's top (Lower Highs trend-line), which is the pattern that has been dictating the 2022 Bear Cycle so far. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by TradingShot
2
S&P500: More Pep!S&P500 needs some more pep to make it above the resistance at 3820 points, so let’s cheer it on! S&P, you are strong enough to climb above 3820 points and to hop into the upper blue zone between 3943 and 4015 points overlapping with the pink zone between 3963 and 4052 points. After you have finished wave (III) in blue there as well as concluded a countermovement in the course of wave (IV) in blue, you will continue to rise further. Although there is a 33% chance that you could lose your grip and drop below the support at 3502 points, that would only activate a detour through the lower blue zone between 3455 and 3285 points overlapping with the pink zone between 3362 and 3271 points. In that case, you would just complete wave alt.4 in turquoise and start the ascent afterwards.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarketIntel
S&P500 Bullish Divergence on RSI targets 4000 short-termThe S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Bearish Megaphone pattern through this Bear Cycle of 2022. Since August 31, despite having the candle action on Lower Lows, the RSI on the 4H time-frame has been on Higher Lows, i.e. flashing a Bullish Divergence. The only other time that this took place within this Bear Cycle was early on from January 21 to February 24. As you see on this chart, during that early 2022 sequence, when the RSI broke above its Lower Highs, the price also broke above its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and targeted the top of the Bearish Megaphone within the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. The 0.618 Fib is currently just over the 4000 level. Also note that yesterday the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) crossed below the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) forming a Bearish Cross. The last time we had that formation was on February 24, exactly on the (short-term) bottom at that time. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
7
S&P500 Broke above the 4H MA50. 3900 next?The S&P500 (SPX) index broke above its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which as we mentioned on our previous analysis, it was the bullish break-out signal. In fact the current post is an update to the post Rate Hike analysis made on September 22: The pattern remains the same and so does the current price action that appears to be replicating the late August - early September leg. As you see, when SPX broke above the 4H MA50, it was on the same MACD pattern as today and the subsequent rally hit not only the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) but extended as high as the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous High. If completed, the 0.618 would fall exactly on the Lower Highs trend-line that started after the August 16 High. You can approach this in segments. First target the 4H MA200 or the 0.5 Fib and if you want to assume some more risk, pursue eventually the 0.618 Fib. This pattern may be invalidated if the price breaks below the 4H MA50, in which case we will be looking for the 1W MA200 as our target again (red trend-line). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by TradingShot
6
S&P500: S&P-inkS&P500 seems to be tickled pink – metaphorically as well as literally. The index has taken to our expectations and has a lot of pink to face. First, the index should fall below the support at 3639 points and into the pink zone between 3598 and 3508 points to finish wave III in pink. Then, it should return above this mark once more to complete wave IV in pink in the pink zone between 3712 and 3885 points. Afterwards, S&P500 should finally move downwards again, heading for the zone between 3362 and 3271 points in – guess what? – pink!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarketIntel
6
S&P500 How to trade it following the 0.75% Rate HikeThe S&P500 index (SPX) dipped aggressively following yesterday's Fed Rate Decision, which was a natural reaction to the third straight 0.75% rate hike. The first one was made on Jun 15 2022 (rate gone from 1.00% up to 1.75%) and the second on July 27 2022 (rate gone from 1.75% to 2.50%). In both cases the market reacted positively by the following day, despite rate hikes fundamentally being negative for stocks. Especially in the case of June 15, the market was surprised as it got an even higher than expected hike (the forecast was 0.50% instead of the actual 0.75%) but still digested the news in such a way that it made a bottom on June 16 and started a rally that rose by +19%. That is the fundamental outlook for the moment. As far as the technical aspect is concerned, the index is below both the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) since September 13. The trend is bearish since the August 16 Top. Early in today's E.U. opening, the price is rebounding as it hit the top of the 3750 - 3720 Support Zone (1). As long as it holds, it can technically target the 4H MA50. Only a candle close above it can extend buying targeting the 4H MA200. Notice the similarities with the August 29 - September 07 Channel Down that eventually broke upwards and reached as high as the 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement Zone. That can make a perfect match with the 4H MA200. Note the similar patterns on the MACD as well. A closing below Support Zone (1) however can deliver an rapid fall to Support Zone (2) 3660 - 3640 and eventually the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), which is the ultimate long-term Support. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 New sell-off based on the May fractal. Can it be avoided?The S&P500 index (SPX) got sold off aggressively on Monday after a worse than expected CPI report. The price action since the August 16 High appears to be repeating the trading sequence of last May. As you see it seems to be a W structure that pivots off Symmetrical Support and Resistance levels, at least so far. If completed that means that the price should rebound on the lower Symmetrical Support Zone and hit the blue pivot before getting aggressively rejected to a new Low. Can this new projected sell-off into October be avoided? Yes but if and only if the following set of parameters is met: * Firstly the 1D RSI rebounds on its Higher Lows trend-line and NOT its 8-month Support Zone and * Secondly if the US10Y, which on this chart is represented by its inverted shape of the 1-US10Y symbol (black trend-line) for better comparison purposes, pivots off its June 14 Low. As you see that rebound was what started the June 17 - August 16 two-month rally on the stock market. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
2
S&P500 Rebound on the Golden Ratio +1st Bullish Cross since 2020The S&P500 index (SPX) is staging its first strong rebound since the pull-back started on the August 16 High, a correction that we projected with our analysis below: The downtrend has stopped on a hugely important Support cluster: * First and foremost, it hit and rebounded on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (orange one), which is technically known as the Golden Ratio. * Secondly, it hit and rebounded exactly on the Higher Lows trend-line that started on the June 16 Low. That is the second contact made since. * Thirdly, the 1D RSI hit and rebounded exactly on its 8-month Support Zone. Among those Support levels, we should not overlook the highly critical emerging formation of the 1D MA50/100 Bullish Cross. That is when the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is crossing above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is considered a technical bullish pattern. If crossed, it will be the first such pattern since the June 17 2020 formation, which was on the market recovery trend-line following the March 2020 COVID crash. So where do all the above leave us now? We cannot ignore the big Resistance Zone of the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the January 04 Lower Highs trend-line, that rejected the price on the Aug 16 top. Those are now exactly on top of each other and should be the first important test of the current rebound. A break/ candle close above them should target 4515 level, which is the 3rd Lower High of the downtrend that SPX needs to fill. As you see on the chart, the last two got filled and formed strong Resistance levels in August. At that point onwards, a re-test of the 1D MA200 as a Support, would fuel the uptrend to the All Time High test. Extra attention is needed though at this stage as if the price is rejected again on the 1D MA50, the rebound attempt may end and if the pull-back causes a 1D candle to close below the 0.618 Fib, then the June Low can be tested and with that the ultimate Support of the 1W MA200 (red trend-line). Set your SLs exactly on the break-out points. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
4
S&P500 got rejected as expected. Now testing the first Support.The S&P500 index (SPX) had a strong rejection on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which we caught on the exact spot with our trading idea below 10 days ago: The timing on this projection couldn't have been better, with early signs of a possible pull-back obvious as the Overbought 1D RSI has always been a trigger for technical pull-backs ever since 2019! This is something we analyzed extensively on that analysis above, so if you want to get more insight on it, click on the idea chart. Friday saw the strongest 1-day pull-back of this selling sequence and broke below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) as well as the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and today the index hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) just above the 0.5 Fib level. As mentioned on the previous analysis, since 2019 such rejections on overbought 1D RSI levels have resulted into 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) tests 5 times. If it holds, a re-test of the 1D MA200 and the January 04 Lower Highs trend-line, which is the top of the 2022 Bearish Megaphone, is possible but unless it breaks, a new Low on the 0.618 Fib is likely. Only a candle close above the Lower Highs trend-line should be capable of extending this strong rally since June. As mentioned on the previous analysis, we would ideally like to see a break above the 0.618 Fib (from the January 04 ATH), as this is the Golden Ratio. Two factors that strengthen the chances of a bullish break-out is that this time (as opposed to the previous Megaphone Lower High rejection), 1) the MACD on the 1W chart is on a Bullish Cross, the first since November 05 2021 and 2) the 1D MA50 is close to crossing above the 1D MA100, which would be the first such Bullish Cross since June 16 2020 that was at the start of a 1 year and a half rally (see charts below): -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
2
S&P500 seeking two Support levels for the next leg upwards.The S&P500 Index (SPX) had a perfect rejection on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), exactly after our analysis last week: As you see, the rejection was not just on the 1D MA200 but also on the January 04 Lower Highs trend-line, essentially the Lower Highs trend-line starting from the All Time High (ATH). As we mentioned on that previous analysis, the rejection took place once the 1D RSI broke into the Overbought Territory. We made a good case that in the recent past however, such RSI overbought breaks, have proved to be only short-term index price rejections and technical pull-backs mostly attributed to profit taking. To be more precise, since 2019 such rejections on overbought 1D RSI levels have resulted into 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) tests 5 times, 1D MA100 (green trend-line) tests 1 time and 1D MA200 tests 2 times (but when price action was much more flat and of course we were not into such a high inflation correction). Scroll the chart to the left to see those. Currently the 1D MA100 is trading towards the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the Aug 16 High, while the 1D MA50 on the 0.5 Fib. If this is indeed the first rally of a new long-term Bull Phase, those are the Support levels to consider. But if the pattern since the ATH is a Bearish Megaphone, what gives the impression that it may be the first rally into a new Bull Phase? Well as you see on the snapshot below, the MACD on the 1W time-frame rose after a huge Bullish Cross, the first since November 05 2021. Also the 1W RSI broke above its Nov 19 2021 Lower Highs trend-line and made a high above the previous Lower High of April 01. In the event of a 1D MA200 break-out, we would ideally like to see a break above the 0.618 Fib (from the January 04 ATH), as this is the Golden Ratio. Also keep an eye on the RSI symmetrical Support Zone after Overbought rejections, for clues on where the price may rebound. We already broke inside it. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
14
S&P500 All time High trend-line is rejecting the uptrend!The S&P500 index (SPX) hit 3 days ago the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and got rejected. But perhaps an even more important development than that is the fact that this rejection also took place on the January 04 Lower Highs trend-line, practically the Resistance trend-line that started from the All Time High (ATH). We've been talking about the important of this trend-line since the March 29 Lower High but more recently warned you about on our July 27 analysis, where we gave the 2nd major break-out buy signal of the June rally: As you see, the 1D MA200 happens to be almost exactly where the 1W MA50 is, making it a major Resistance. The bearish sentiment gets even stronger, if we take a look at the 1D RSI, which is being rejected after breaking into the +70.00 Overbought Territory last Friday. In the recent past however, such RSI overbought breaks, have proved to be only short-term index price rejections and technical pull-backs mostly attributed to profit taking. After all, since the June 16 Low, the S&P500 has rallied almost +19%, the biggest non-pullback rally since September 02 2020! Just a reminder, we accurately captured the exact start of this mega rally with our analysis on June 20: To be more precise, since 2019 such rejections on overbought 1D RSI levels have resulted into 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) tests 5 times, 1D MA100 (green trend-line) tests 1 time and 1D MA200 tests 2 times (but when price action was much more flat and of course we were not into such a high inflation correction). Scroll the chart to the left to see those. Currently the 1D MA100 is trading towards the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the Aug 16 High, while the 1D MA50 on the 0.5 Fib. If this is indeed the first rally of a new long-term Bull Phase, those are the Support levels to consider. In the event of a 1D MA200 break-out, we would ideally like to see a break above the 0.618 Fib (from the January 04 ATH), as this is the Golden Ratio. In both cases, the risk is very low being so close to the 1D MA200 and the Jan Lower Highs trend-line, so if you are a short-term trader, manage your trades accordingly. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
1
S&P500: Rare, Medium or Done? 🥩That’s generally the question when preparing steaks. Additionally, we might also ask S&P500 whether it is already done – namely with wave V in pink and wave 3 in blue. We still give the index some time and room to finish them both, but afterwards, it should get started on a countermovement leading into the lower blue zone between 4144 and 3998 points. There, it should complete wave 4 in blue and subsequently take off again. There is also a 40% chance, though, that S&P500 could drop below the resistance at 3950 points, thus eliciting a detour below the next mark at 3639 points and into the turquoise zone between 3597 and 3353 points.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarketIntel
1
S&P500 closed above the 1W MA100. Last step before a +23% rally?The S&P500 index (SPX) closed its last 1W (weekly) candle above the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since May. This has been part of a very strong rally that started after the mid June low. The 1W MA100 has been instrumental in recent decades at deciding whether the index enters a Bear Market or resumes the Bull Market. As you see on this 1W time-frame chart, during the 2001/02 and 2008/09 Bear Cycles, S&P500 failed to break above the 1W MA100 upon a rebound test (January 2001 and May 2008) and eventually got rejected in a Bear Market. In fact in May 2008 the rejection was more clear on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is currently the Resistance level that the index is testing this week. If it fails here again, we can get a repeat of those Bear Cycles, where the price dipped -44.40% and 52.60% respectively from the 1W MA100 rejections. A -52% sell-off would put the index exactly where the 1M MA200 (red trend-line) is right now (around 2100). On the other hand, every other time that the SPX broke above the 1W MA100 and successfully held it, the price rallied (from the level of break-out) in the coming months/ years from a minimum of +23% (February 2019 - February 2020) to a maximum of +80% (October 2011 - June 2015) before it ran into another market top. In today's terms, that would be a minimum of 5100 (+23%) and a maximum of 7450 (+80%) from last week's 1W MA100 break-out point. Which scenario do you think it's going to be? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
8