S&P500: Breaking key Resistance but the 1W MA50 has to holdThe S&P500 crossed this week over the LH trendline of the August 15th rejection on the 1W MA50. Proportionally this can be compared to the April 18th 2016 breakout. The key for a sustainable uptrend on that occasion was the 1W MA50. It held twice and sustained a long term uptrend. With the 1W technicals turning marginally bullish (RSI = 56.614, MACD = 37.390, ADX = 36.682) and the RSI on a similar HL trendline with 2016, we expect a few weeks of sideways trading and if the 1W MA50 holds, we have a legitimate case for a new long term Bull Cycle.
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S&P500: The 1W MA100 and 0.5 Fib are the biggest hurdles.The S&P500 gives a very clear impression as to what the situation is on the 1W timeframe. Despite the recovery early this year with the index crossing above the 1 year LH trendline, thus getting out of the Bear Cycle, the 1W technicals are basically neutral (RSI = 56.583, MACD = 37.340, ADX = 36.258). A big part of it is because the index has been ranging inside the R1 and S1 Zones since November.
Key levels to watch are 1) the 1W MA100, which hasn't been hit August 22nd and hasn't made a weekly closing above since August 15th and 2) the 0.5 Fibonacci level, which despite having candle's crossing over it, hasn't made a closing since (again) August 15th.
According to this, a last pullback to S1 is possible and then the decisive rebound that will make a Higher High on the 5 month Channel Up on the 0.618 Fibonacci, below R2 (TP = 4,300).
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S&P500: This may be the rally that turns the 1WMA50 into SupportThe S&P500 has completed 3 straight green weeks, the strongest 3 week rally since October 24th. As we zoom out on the 1W time frame where the technicals have just only turned marginally bullish (RSI = 55.603, MACD = 28.700, ADX = 34.959) we can see an attempt to form a Channel Up. The 1W RSI is slightly pulling downwards and since it started rising back in May, this was a pull back signal within a greater bullish wave. Those are clearly shown on your chart. The June 13th-August 15th wave rose by 18.90% and the October 10th-December 12th wave rose by 18.40%.
This suggests that there is still much room left to rise on this wave, thus we remain bullish aiming at another +18.40% rise (TP = 4,500). It is worth making clear at this point that if another such bullish wave is materialized, then the 1W MA50 will be turned into a Support for good. And this trendline tends to be the standard Support level during Bull Cycles.
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S&P500 Long and strong on this Channel UpThe S&P500 is extending the rise that we called 2 weeks ago at the bottom (see chart at the end) of the long term Channel Up.
Target (1) was easily and quickly hit and as the price is approaching Resistance Zone (1), we get the potential conditions for a short term pull back.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy any pull back under Resistance Zone (1).
Targets:
1. 4220 (top of the Channel Up and +11.00% rise).
Tips:
1. The MACD (1d) is approaching a Resistance level that has previously initiated short term pull backs.
2. Ultimate long term target is Resistance (2) at 4330, which will fill the gap of August 16th.
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Notes:
This is a continuation of this trading plan:
S&P500 First 4hour Golden Cross in 2.5 months.S&P500 formed the first 4hour Golden Cross since January 16th, breaking above Resistance A.
The RSI is on a Rising Support, same with the previous bullish leg of January.
Following the Golden Cross, the price pulled back to Fibonacci 0.5 and then resumed the uptrend.
Regardless of this potential pullback, we remain bullish on the S&P500 index, with our Target intact at 4280.
Previous chart:
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S&P500: Channel Up with Golden Cross closing the February Gaps.The S&P500 index formed a Channel Up with the 4H technicals indicating a healthy uptrend (RSI = 63.246, MACD = 19.720, ADX = 49.272). The 4H RSI is on Higher Lows of its own and the 4H MA50 is about to cross over the 4H MA200 and form the first Golden Cross since January 17th. A pullback will be an excellent opportunity for lower risk buys.
The Fibonacci retracement levels act as solid Resistance and Support zones so use them to your advantage if you trade short term. We expect R1 and R2 to get hit and as pointed out in our previous idea, we remain bullish with TP1 = 4,080 and TP2 = 4,160.
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S&P500: Is the Recession danger over?The S&P500 on the 1W time frame remains technically neutral (RSI = 51.005, MACD = 10.190, ADX = 35.849). Large reason why it has done so is because it has been ranging between the 1W MA100 and 1W MA200 for 22 weeks (154 days). That is a significant period that isn't that indicative of a bottom formation. There is still a large portion (could even be the majority) of market participants that believe we haven't skipped the danger of an even longer Recession.
What better way to look at it than compare the index with the last Recession, the subprime mortgage on in 2007-2008. We see that for some period of time, that Recession traded also between the 1W MA100 and 1W MA200, while also breaking shortly over the LH trend-line of the Cycle. It then started to decline aggressively on a weekly pace under the 1W MA200, something we haven't (yet) seen today, especially with the last two 1W candles being green. Also the MACD is now trading upwards after a Double Bottom while in 2008 it traded downwards.
Bottom-line, it is more likely that the danger of a Recession is over but a closing over the 1W MA100 would be ideal to confirm that. What do you think?
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S&P500 bottomed on the 5 month Channel Up. Buy.S&P500 hit the exact bottom of the long term Channel Up pattern and remains under the 4hour MA50.
This is an instant buy opportunity technically. The 4hour RSI double bottomed.
This price action looks very much like the previous Channel Lows of December and October.
We buy on the current market price. A crossing above the 4hour MA50 confirms it. Target 1 is 4100 (Fibonacci 0.618) and Target 2 is 4200 (Fibonacci 0.786).
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S&P500 Exceptional buy.S&P500 reached the bottom of the 4 month Channel Up.
The RSI (1d) is nearly oversold.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 4250 (top of Channel Up and projected +11.20% rise).
Tips:
1. RSI (1d) is forming a huge bottom sequence same with December 19th and September 27th.
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S&P500: Strongest buy opportunity of the next 6 weeks.S&P500 is approaching the HL trend line (started November 3rd 2022) on nearly oversold 1D technicals (RSI = 38.159, MACD = -14.370, ADX = 33.442). The main Support is S1 is at 3885 and the price may touch it as it may form a similar bottom to December 22nd with the 4H RSI needing to turn oversold at 30.000 first.
Regardless of that we are turning long on the S&P for the next 6 weeks, targeting R1 (TP1 = 4,015), R2 (TP2 = 4,075) and R3 (TP3 = 4,190).
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BITCOIN is lagging considerably behind the S&P500. Huge upside.We have Bitcoin on the left and the S&P500 on the right.
Bitcoin is getting rejected on the 1week MA50, while the S&P500 is trading between the 1week MA50 and 1week MA100.
This is a clear sign that Bitcoin is lagging behind the major stock index and that it remains undervalued relative to the rest of the market.
Therefore, Bitcoin's potential on a 2 month timeframe extends as high as the 1week MA100 +/- 32000.
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S&P500: Channel Down dominant but target this if it breaks out.The S&P500 is inside a Channel Down on the 4H chart ever since the correction started early in February. A correction that has caused even the 1D time-frame to turn bearish technically (RSI = 41.649, MACD = -7.180, ADX = 42.487).
As long as the price remains below the 4H MA50, it is aiming as S2 (TP = 3,900). However with the 4H RSI inside a Channel Up (bullish divergence), if the price crosses over the Channel Down and more importantly the 4H MA200, we will go long aiming at the 0.786 Fibonacci (TP = 4,140).
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S&P500: Short term correction.The S&P500 is approaching the 4H MA50, its first line of Support in the past 10 days. 1D remains positive so on the long term we are still bullish but as 4H turned neutral (RSI = 48.983, MACD = 17.390, ADX = 32.288) we are looking at the probability of visiting the 4H MA200 in order for the RSI to touch the oversold limit and turn into a buy again, as it happened December 7th.
Consequently, we are shorting with TP = 3,980. If the 4H MA200 is broken, we will prolong selling to the S1 Zone, with TP = 3,800. Only a break above the 4,200 Resistance advocates a buy (TP = 4,300) if it comes before 3,800.
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S&P500 Alert! Rejection on the Bear Market Resistance!The index failed yet again to break and close above the bold white declining Resistance, which is effectively the Resistance that has marked all lower highs of the Bear Market. This is far from an ideal scenario for S&P500 buyers. The Support Zone right below already supported once last week and has been serving as either a Support or Resistance since May 30th.
Below that its the bottom of the Channel Up to consider but if broken the price can reach Support Zone B and the dashed declining support.
Closing over the Bear Market Resistance will be extremely bullish for the S&P500, setting a target within the Resistance Zone.
What can help us be ready to trade the correct trend is the RSI, which is trading within a Triangle. The direction of its breakout can potentially reveal the index's next move.
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S&P500 Trend getting weakerSPX is within a rising wedge structure that has been getting weaker on each high. The 1hour RSI has a pivot line though above which the trend remains bullish but below turns bearish.
So far it is above and it is evident as the price is holding the wedge's bottom and is rebounding.
4040 the upper target if it holds. 3942, which is the first support, if it breaks where it can catch the 1hour MA200.
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S&P500 at the bottom of October Channel Up looking for directionThe S&P500 index (SPX) continues to trade on the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the October Channel Up having failed to break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since December 16. This has now completed a 3-week fall following the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) rejection. Even though it appears to be staging a rebound, there is no confirmation as the 1D MACD hasn't made a Bullish Cross while the price remains also below the 4H MA200 (green trend-line).
S&P500 needs to break above the 4H MA200 and make the MACD Bullish Cross, in order to invalidate the Lower High it formed on the September 13 rejection that eventually led to a more aggressive round of selling to the October 13 market bottom.
In order for the S&P500 to avoid this scenario, it needs to break above the previous Lower High (4055), which failed to do so in September, which would also mean breaking above the Lower Highs trend-line since January 04 of the previous year (2022), essentially the Bear Cycle Resistance. Until then, a new Lower Highs or 1W M50 rejection should be enough to test first the Support Zone around 3700 and if broken, even the market low.
On the bright side, even a neutral price action within the Channel Up can form a 1D Golden Cross at the end of January, which will of course be a bullish signal.
Our targets above the 4055 Lower High are 4145 (top of Resistance Zone) and 4300 (Higher High of the October Channel Up). Below the Channel Down we target (as mentioned) the 3700 Support.
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S&P500 Running out of time and space. Can it avoid the fall?The S&P500 index (SPX) hit again the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the October Channel Up following two straight rejections on its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). This completes a 2-week fall following the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) rejection. Even though it appears to be staging a small rebound early today, so far it remains even below the 1D MA50 (green trend-line), where it had a clear rejection on December 22 as well as the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
Based on the 4H MACD, it appears that S&P is repeating the early September Cup reversal pattern. That sequence broke above the 4H MA50 and 1D MA50 in succession before getting rejected just above the 4H MA200. That rejection later initiated a new and more aggressive round of selling to the October 13 market bottom. Notice the 4H Death Cross on both patterns.
In order for the S&P500 to avoid this scenario, it needs to break above the previous Lower High (4055), which failed to do so in September. Until then, a new Lower Highs or 1W M50 rejection should be enough to test first the Support Zone around 3700 and if broken, even the market low.
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S&P500 Repeating early September. Can it avoid the fall?The S&P500 index (SPX) is rebounding since yesterday after the 7 day fall followng the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) rejection. Even though it rebounded near the bottom of the October Channel Up, so far it remains below the 1D MA50 (green trend-line), the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) as well as the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
Based on the 4H MACD, it appears that S&P is repeating the early September Cup reversal pattern. That sequence broke above the 4H MA50 and 1D MA50 in succession before getting rejected just above the 4H MA200. We are now slightly past the 4H Death Cross. That rejection later initiated a new and more aggressive round of selling to the October 13 market bottom.
In order for the S&P500 to avoid this scenario, it needs to break above the previous Lower High (4055), which failed to do so in September. Until then, a new Lower Highs or 1W M50 rejection should be enough to test first the Support Zone around 3700 and if broken, even the market low.
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This level on VIX can make the S&P500 finally break bullishThis is the S&P500 on the top chart compared to the Volatility Index (VIX) at the bottom. As you see, VIX rebounded on the 19.20 Support level that was formed by the August 12 Low and that made the S&P500 get rejected on its Lower Highs trend-line that is holding since the start of 2022.
If that upward trend on VIX continues, S&P500 should trend towards its previous Low and if VIX tests its October High, then most likely it will be translated into a Lower Low for the S&P500.
However, a break below VIX's Low, into the Green Zone, should make the S&P500 finally crosses above this 1 year Resistance. Further, a VIX break below the 16.35 Low (formed by the January 04 Low), should technically confirm the long-term bullish break-out. This can be as early as the start of 2023 if VIX's Channel Down is extended.
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S&P500 What crisis? We're still in a cyclical Bull.This is the S&P500 index (SPX) on the 1M (monthly) time-frame illustrating key levels and zones using the Fibonacci Channel.
We focus on the price action and pattern created following the last major crisis, the 2008 housing crash. As you see, since that Bear Cycle correction, S&P500 has been trading within a steady Channel Up and with the use of the Fibonacci retracement levels, we see that the price action has been concentrated almost entirely within the 0.236 - 0.5 Fib Zone. The January market top was above it and made the index strongly correct back into the Zone. In September the price broke below the 0.236 Fib for the first time since May 2020 and the COVID crash and buying demand seems to have kicked in almost immediately as the index is up more than +16%.
As a reference, we would like to compare this Channel Up to the one after the 1974 bottom:
As you see on the chart above, it was again the 0.236 - 0.5 Fib Zone that dominated the majority of the price action since the 1974 bottom and the August 1987 top that hit and got rejected at the top of the Channel (Fib 1.0) was what led to the October 1987 mega flash crash of 'Black Monday'. Then the index continued rising within the upper Fib Zone of 0.618 - 1.0 even more tightly within 0.786 - 1.0, until it eventually broke above it again in June 1995 in the sequence that led and accelerated the Dotcom Bubble of the 90s into the Crash of 2000.
What really helps in identifying the price action's bottom, hence long-term buy entries, within this post 2009 Channel Up, is the 1M RSI. Since June 2010 it has a Support Zone (green that) was hit and started strong rebounds 6 times (including this September). At the same time, there is an evident Lower Lows trend-line since May 2012 that has had contacts turning into rebounds 5 times.
All the above occurrences combined (price rebounding on the 0.236 Fib, RSI on the Support Zone and Lower Lows trend-line), are a strong bullish mix giving the best buy signal since the March 2020 COVID crash.
And above all, it shows that, at least for the time being, the S&P500 index is still in a Cyclical Bull market and even more so, far from being overbought even on a long-term multi-year scale!
Are you still bearish based on the above?
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S&P500 Potential 4HMA50 rejection. Resistance & Support in focusOn this analysis we diverge from our usual long-term outlook and instead we look at the (short-term) 4H time-frame where the 4H MA50 (green trend-line) is in focus. S&P500 (SPX) broke below it since yesterday and not only has it failed to recover it but so far has a clear rejection.
As long as we trade below it, the first target will be the 3915 Support where a closing (1D) below it, sets course for the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the ultimate Support level of uptrends. A complete Bearish Cross (currently very close to) on the 1D MACD, will largely confirm that view.
On the other hand, a break above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), would be a bullish break-out signal and would target the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and Resistance 1 at 4175 in extension.
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S&P500 Critical Support! Hard drop or test of Cycle Resistance?The S&P500 index (SPX) is currently testing and (so far) holding the 4H MA50 (green trend-line), which is not just the Support on the short-term but has been within 2022 the pivotal line that started all selling sequences to a new market Low.
As you see on this 4H time-frame chart, since the start of the 2022 Bear Cycle, every time the counter trend rallies made a top on the January 04 Lower Highs trend-line and the 4H MA50 broke afterwards (and closed the day below it), the index never made a Higher High and instead started the bearish legs to a new Lower Low. It can be argued that the rally since the October 13 Low never hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which was the top and where the price got rejected on August 17.
The 1D RSI, compared to the previous tops, shows that there should be some fuel left on this rally but the most accurate and confirmed Sell Signal on tops has been when the 1D MACD makes a Bearish Cross. That would target the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1W MA200 (grey trend-line) in extension.
On the long-term, as long as we are below the January 04 Lower Highs, we are still in Bear Cycle territory. Ideally we would like to see a break above the 4175 Resistance (1), which would be also above the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), in order to call for an official start to the new Bull Cycle.
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S&P500 Time to reveal the real trend.The S&P500 index has been trading within a short-term Channel Down pattern since the October 27 Low on the 4H time-frame. We presented this formation on our last week analysis:
The price rebounded at the bottom of the Channel Down and reached its top to form a Lower High. This happens to be also on the Lower Highs trend-line that started after the August 16 High. Since September 12 though, the RSI on the 1D time-frame has been trading on Higher Highs, i.e. showcasing a Bullish Divergence. On top of that, this is the first time since June, that the price didn't drop lower after an oversold 4H RSI but instead rose without any pull-back.
Those factors add weight on the bullish case. A candle close above the August 16 trend-line, immediately targets 3925 and then 4040 in extension. The medium-term targets are Resistance 1 (4175) and Resistance 2 (4328).
Failure to break the August Resistance though, maintains the Channel Down pattern, targeting first the 3643 Support (1) as a Lower Low.
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