S&P500: Short term correction.The S&P500 is approaching the 4H MA50, its first line of Support in the past 10 days. 1D remains positive so on the long term we are still bullish but as 4H turned neutral (RSI = 48.983, MACD = 17.390, ADX = 32.288) we are looking at the probability of visiting the 4H MA200 in order for the RSI to touch the oversold limit and turn into a buy again, as it happened December 7th.
Consequently, we are shorting with TP = 3,980. If the 4H MA200 is broken, we will prolong selling to the S1 Zone, with TP = 3,800. Only a break above the 4,200 Resistance advocates a buy (TP = 4,300) if it comes before 3,800.
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S&P500 Alert! Rejection on the Bear Market Resistance!The index failed yet again to break and close above the bold white declining Resistance, which is effectively the Resistance that has marked all lower highs of the Bear Market. This is far from an ideal scenario for S&P500 buyers. The Support Zone right below already supported once last week and has been serving as either a Support or Resistance since May 30th.
Below that its the bottom of the Channel Up to consider but if broken the price can reach Support Zone B and the dashed declining support.
Closing over the Bear Market Resistance will be extremely bullish for the S&P500, setting a target within the Resistance Zone.
What can help us be ready to trade the correct trend is the RSI, which is trading within a Triangle. The direction of its breakout can potentially reveal the index's next move.
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S&P500 Trend getting weakerSPX is within a rising wedge structure that has been getting weaker on each high. The 1hour RSI has a pivot line though above which the trend remains bullish but below turns bearish.
So far it is above and it is evident as the price is holding the wedge's bottom and is rebounding.
4040 the upper target if it holds. 3942, which is the first support, if it breaks where it can catch the 1hour MA200.
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S&P500 at the bottom of October Channel Up looking for directionThe S&P500 index (SPX) continues to trade on the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the October Channel Up having failed to break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since December 16. This has now completed a 3-week fall following the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) rejection. Even though it appears to be staging a rebound, there is no confirmation as the 1D MACD hasn't made a Bullish Cross while the price remains also below the 4H MA200 (green trend-line).
S&P500 needs to break above the 4H MA200 and make the MACD Bullish Cross, in order to invalidate the Lower High it formed on the September 13 rejection that eventually led to a more aggressive round of selling to the October 13 market bottom.
In order for the S&P500 to avoid this scenario, it needs to break above the previous Lower High (4055), which failed to do so in September, which would also mean breaking above the Lower Highs trend-line since January 04 of the previous year (2022), essentially the Bear Cycle Resistance. Until then, a new Lower Highs or 1W M50 rejection should be enough to test first the Support Zone around 3700 and if broken, even the market low.
On the bright side, even a neutral price action within the Channel Up can form a 1D Golden Cross at the end of January, which will of course be a bullish signal.
Our targets above the 4055 Lower High are 4145 (top of Resistance Zone) and 4300 (Higher High of the October Channel Up). Below the Channel Down we target (as mentioned) the 3700 Support.
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S&P500 Running out of time and space. Can it avoid the fall?The S&P500 index (SPX) hit again the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the October Channel Up following two straight rejections on its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). This completes a 2-week fall following the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) rejection. Even though it appears to be staging a small rebound early today, so far it remains even below the 1D MA50 (green trend-line), where it had a clear rejection on December 22 as well as the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
Based on the 4H MACD, it appears that S&P is repeating the early September Cup reversal pattern. That sequence broke above the 4H MA50 and 1D MA50 in succession before getting rejected just above the 4H MA200. That rejection later initiated a new and more aggressive round of selling to the October 13 market bottom. Notice the 4H Death Cross on both patterns.
In order for the S&P500 to avoid this scenario, it needs to break above the previous Lower High (4055), which failed to do so in September. Until then, a new Lower Highs or 1W M50 rejection should be enough to test first the Support Zone around 3700 and if broken, even the market low.
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S&P500 Repeating early September. Can it avoid the fall?The S&P500 index (SPX) is rebounding since yesterday after the 7 day fall followng the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) rejection. Even though it rebounded near the bottom of the October Channel Up, so far it remains below the 1D MA50 (green trend-line), the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) as well as the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
Based on the 4H MACD, it appears that S&P is repeating the early September Cup reversal pattern. That sequence broke above the 4H MA50 and 1D MA50 in succession before getting rejected just above the 4H MA200. We are now slightly past the 4H Death Cross. That rejection later initiated a new and more aggressive round of selling to the October 13 market bottom.
In order for the S&P500 to avoid this scenario, it needs to break above the previous Lower High (4055), which failed to do so in September. Until then, a new Lower Highs or 1W M50 rejection should be enough to test first the Support Zone around 3700 and if broken, even the market low.
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This level on VIX can make the S&P500 finally break bullishThis is the S&P500 on the top chart compared to the Volatility Index (VIX) at the bottom. As you see, VIX rebounded on the 19.20 Support level that was formed by the August 12 Low and that made the S&P500 get rejected on its Lower Highs trend-line that is holding since the start of 2022.
If that upward trend on VIX continues, S&P500 should trend towards its previous Low and if VIX tests its October High, then most likely it will be translated into a Lower Low for the S&P500.
However, a break below VIX's Low, into the Green Zone, should make the S&P500 finally crosses above this 1 year Resistance. Further, a VIX break below the 16.35 Low (formed by the January 04 Low), should technically confirm the long-term bullish break-out. This can be as early as the start of 2023 if VIX's Channel Down is extended.
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S&P500 What crisis? We're still in a cyclical Bull.This is the S&P500 index (SPX) on the 1M (monthly) time-frame illustrating key levels and zones using the Fibonacci Channel.
We focus on the price action and pattern created following the last major crisis, the 2008 housing crash. As you see, since that Bear Cycle correction, S&P500 has been trading within a steady Channel Up and with the use of the Fibonacci retracement levels, we see that the price action has been concentrated almost entirely within the 0.236 - 0.5 Fib Zone. The January market top was above it and made the index strongly correct back into the Zone. In September the price broke below the 0.236 Fib for the first time since May 2020 and the COVID crash and buying demand seems to have kicked in almost immediately as the index is up more than +16%.
As a reference, we would like to compare this Channel Up to the one after the 1974 bottom:
As you see on the chart above, it was again the 0.236 - 0.5 Fib Zone that dominated the majority of the price action since the 1974 bottom and the August 1987 top that hit and got rejected at the top of the Channel (Fib 1.0) was what led to the October 1987 mega flash crash of 'Black Monday'. Then the index continued rising within the upper Fib Zone of 0.618 - 1.0 even more tightly within 0.786 - 1.0, until it eventually broke above it again in June 1995 in the sequence that led and accelerated the Dotcom Bubble of the 90s into the Crash of 2000.
What really helps in identifying the price action's bottom, hence long-term buy entries, within this post 2009 Channel Up, is the 1M RSI. Since June 2010 it has a Support Zone (green that) was hit and started strong rebounds 6 times (including this September). At the same time, there is an evident Lower Lows trend-line since May 2012 that has had contacts turning into rebounds 5 times.
All the above occurrences combined (price rebounding on the 0.236 Fib, RSI on the Support Zone and Lower Lows trend-line), are a strong bullish mix giving the best buy signal since the March 2020 COVID crash.
And above all, it shows that, at least for the time being, the S&P500 index is still in a Cyclical Bull market and even more so, far from being overbought even on a long-term multi-year scale!
Are you still bearish based on the above?
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S&P500 Potential 4HMA50 rejection. Resistance & Support in focusOn this analysis we diverge from our usual long-term outlook and instead we look at the (short-term) 4H time-frame where the 4H MA50 (green trend-line) is in focus. S&P500 (SPX) broke below it since yesterday and not only has it failed to recover it but so far has a clear rejection.
As long as we trade below it, the first target will be the 3915 Support where a closing (1D) below it, sets course for the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the ultimate Support level of uptrends. A complete Bearish Cross (currently very close to) on the 1D MACD, will largely confirm that view.
On the other hand, a break above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), would be a bullish break-out signal and would target the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and Resistance 1 at 4175 in extension.
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S&P500 Critical Support! Hard drop or test of Cycle Resistance?The S&P500 index (SPX) is currently testing and (so far) holding the 4H MA50 (green trend-line), which is not just the Support on the short-term but has been within 2022 the pivotal line that started all selling sequences to a new market Low.
As you see on this 4H time-frame chart, since the start of the 2022 Bear Cycle, every time the counter trend rallies made a top on the January 04 Lower Highs trend-line and the 4H MA50 broke afterwards (and closed the day below it), the index never made a Higher High and instead started the bearish legs to a new Lower Low. It can be argued that the rally since the October 13 Low never hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which was the top and where the price got rejected on August 17.
The 1D RSI, compared to the previous tops, shows that there should be some fuel left on this rally but the most accurate and confirmed Sell Signal on tops has been when the 1D MACD makes a Bearish Cross. That would target the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1W MA200 (grey trend-line) in extension.
On the long-term, as long as we are below the January 04 Lower Highs, we are still in Bear Cycle territory. Ideally we would like to see a break above the 4175 Resistance (1), which would be also above the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), in order to call for an official start to the new Bull Cycle.
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S&P500 Time to reveal the real trend.The S&P500 index has been trading within a short-term Channel Down pattern since the October 27 Low on the 4H time-frame. We presented this formation on our last week analysis:
The price rebounded at the bottom of the Channel Down and reached its top to form a Lower High. This happens to be also on the Lower Highs trend-line that started after the August 16 High. Since September 12 though, the RSI on the 1D time-frame has been trading on Higher Highs, i.e. showcasing a Bullish Divergence. On top of that, this is the first time since June, that the price didn't drop lower after an oversold 4H RSI but instead rose without any pull-back.
Those factors add weight on the bullish case. A candle close above the August 16 trend-line, immediately targets 3925 and then 4040 in extension. The medium-term targets are Resistance 1 (4175) and Resistance 2 (4328).
Failure to break the August Resistance though, maintains the Channel Down pattern, targeting first the 3643 Support (1) as a Lower Low.
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S&P500 4H RSI oversold but means nothing unless this breaksThe S&P500 (SPX) is having a strong pull-back on the short-term following Powell's remarks during the Press Conference on the Fed's future policy in the aftermath of the +0.75% Rate Hike.
The RSI on the 4H time-frame dropped below the 30.000 oversold barrier intraday but that alone has proven to mean nothing in terms of buying power. As you see, every time the RSI turned oversold since June, the price dropped lower eventually. The only signal that has been causing a confirmed rise is a break above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which has caused price rises ranging from +2.26% to +5.18%.
Right now the price is even below the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) which is making things worse and as a Channel Down is forming, we may see a slight bounce and then Lower Low as per this data sample since June. If a 4H MA50 breaks happens now, a minimum of +2.26% rise would hit 3925 while a maximum of +5.18% would hit 4040.
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S&P500 The inflation crisis is just a minor cyclical event!This is a complete roadmap of the S&P500 index (SPX) on the 1M time-frame, where we have taxonomized its historical trend on Super Cycles and Minor Cycles.
As you see, since the Great Depression, we can categorize a whole era (approximately 42 years) as a Super Cycle. Super Cycles tend to end with a massive Recession/ Bear Market.
Within the Super Cycle, we've fitted three Minor ones. The first two Minor Cycle within the Super one have ended with a minor corrections (relative to the long-term of course).
Based on S&P500's current Super Cycle projection, it appears what we are only heading towards the end of the 1st Minor Cycle of the Super Cycle that started a few years after the 2008 Housing Crisis. As a result the current correction in 2022 due to the very high inflation, is simply viewed as another minor cyclical event at the start of a Super Cycle that is projected to end with a Recession around 2048!
For illustration purposes and to help make a better comparison, I have plotted the first two Super Cycles (blue and green trend-lines) on the current one. We can see how thee current one has diverged a bit more than the others, probably thanks to the massive QE since the Housing Crisis. Also notice that since January 1943, the 1M MA300 (red trend-line) has been the ultimate Support and a rebound level on both Super Cycle corrections/ Recessions.
This chart simply shows that long-term investors have nothing to be afraid of with this inflation crisis and soon incredible buy opportunities will emerge.
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S&P500: Bullish for the next 10 days at least.The S&P500 hit the 1D MA100 (green) on Friday for the first time since September 13. The rebound started off a Double Bottom and broke above the dashed Lower Highs trend-line that is consistent with all previous short-term rallies in 2022.
Based on that, the price should stay bullish for at least the next 10 days and hit the 1D MA200 (orange). We can even make a case for a potential long-term bullish reversal above the bold black Lower Highs trend-line, as the 1W RSI has been trading within a Channel Up on Higher Lows since June 21, while at the same time the index made Lower Lows. This is a Bullish Divergence on the long-term but we will have time to analyze this in the coming days if the major breakout occurs.
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S&P500 Short-term Rising Wedge ahead of the Fed.The S&P500 is trading within a Rising Wedge pattern since the October 13 Low and which ahead of the Fed Interest Rate Decision tomorrow, should break-out. Until it does, the Support and level to buy is the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which has formed the last two Higher Lows. This should coincide with a Higher Low on the 4H RSI trend-line. As long as it holds, the target will the the 3918.50 Resistance and above that a Higher High within 3990 - 4000.
A candle close below the 4H MA50 would constitute a bearish break-out from the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Rising Wedge. In that case the immediate target should be the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). Below that all lower Fibs can be filled.
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S&P500: Bullish for the next 10 days at least.The S&P500 hit the 1D MA100 (green) on Friday for the first time since September 13. The rebound started off a Double Bottom and broke above the dashed Lower Highs trend-line that is consistent with all previous short-term rallies in 2022.
Based on that, the price should stay bullish for at least the next 10 days and hit the 1D MA200 (orange). We can even make a case for a potential long-term bullish reversal above the bold black Lower Highs trend-line, as the 1W RSI has been trading within a Channel Up on Higher Lows since June 21, while at the same time the index made Lower Lows. This is a Bullish Divergence on the long-term but we will have time to analyze this in the coming days if the major breakout occurs.
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S&P500 The RSI Divergence. Critical break or make moment!The S&P500 index (SPX) has been rising aggressively since the October 13 bottom and broke again above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) after its two day pull-back. By doing so it hit again the Lower Highs trend-line from the September 12 High. While the price was under this trend-line, the 1D RSI has been under Higher Highs. This peculiar Divergence has been seen another two times since the Bear Market of 2022 started.
In fact it has been the exact same pattern on RSI and in the previous sequences it led to a drop. This time the index can invalidate it as there is a gap to fill at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 2022 Bearish Megaphone, on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) within the 0.618 - 0.786 Fibonacci Zone, which is where the previous Lower Highs were formed.
Technically, this is all about the 1D candle closing. A close above the price Lower Highs and the RSI Higher Highs, is a bullish break-out signal towards the 1D MA200. A rejection and close below, is a bearish signal towards the 3650 and 3500 lows.
Will it break or get rejected in your opinion?
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S&P500 Huge confirmation of our bull pattern repeat.Right on the October 13 2022 low, when the CPI number came out higher than expected and the market was in extreme fear mode, we posted the following idea on the S&P500 index (SPX), explaining how fundamentally the report was still lower than the previous month and more importantly how technically the index was flashing some early signs that it would repeat the previous two rebounds on the Megaphone's Lower Lows on February 24 and June 17:
As you see, our expectation is so far being materialized as 10 days later, the index hasn't just avoided making a Lower Low going against the majority's belief on the CPI but also rebounded on the exact same day and is testing the October 05 High/ Resistance. This time we will see this in more detail, focusing on the 1D RSI.
As you see, when the RSI broke above its Lower Highs trend-line, the rebound basically started and on both previous sequences, it was as early as anyone could get. This time (October 14), it appears to be even earlier. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is just above and if the current Lower High leg follows the previous two, then it should break rather fast and target just above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which as you see is where the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is headed. This trend-line is critical as it was exactly where the August 16 Lower High was made and the price was rejected, so right now is the most important long-term Resistance.
As with the previous analysis, we have plotted all Lower Low/ Lower High sequences on top of each other with Blue being January - March, Orange April - August and Grey August to October (now). It is evident that all are very similar and compared to the previous ones, the current S&P500 levels constitute still a good buy opportunity, at least on the medium-term. For the long-term, the price has to break above the Bearish Megaphone's top (Lower Highs trend-line), which is the pattern that has been dictating the 2022 Bear Cycle so far.
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S&P500: More Pep!S&P500 needs some more pep to make it above the resistance at 3820 points, so let’s cheer it on! S&P, you are strong enough to climb above 3820 points and to hop into the upper blue zone between 3943 and 4015 points overlapping with the pink zone between 3963 and 4052 points. After you have finished wave (III) in blue there as well as concluded a countermovement in the course of wave (IV) in blue, you will continue to rise further. Although there is a 33% chance that you could lose your grip and drop below the support at 3502 points, that would only activate a detour through the lower blue zone between 3455 and 3285 points overlapping with the pink zone between 3362 and 3271 points. In that case, you would just complete wave alt.4 in turquoise and start the ascent afterwards.
S&P500 Bullish Divergence on RSI targets 4000 short-termThe S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Bearish Megaphone pattern through this Bear Cycle of 2022. Since August 31, despite having the candle action on Lower Lows, the RSI on the 4H time-frame has been on Higher Lows, i.e. flashing a Bullish Divergence. The only other time that this took place within this Bear Cycle was early on from January 21 to February 24.
As you see on this chart, during that early 2022 sequence, when the RSI broke above its Lower Highs, the price also broke above its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and targeted the top of the Bearish Megaphone within the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. The 0.618 Fib is currently just over the 4000 level.
Also note that yesterday the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) crossed below the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) forming a Bearish Cross. The last time we had that formation was on February 24, exactly on the (short-term) bottom at that time.
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S&P500 Broke above the 4H MA50. 3900 next?The S&P500 (SPX) index broke above its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which as we mentioned on our previous analysis, it was the bullish break-out signal. In fact the current post is an update to the post Rate Hike analysis made on September 22:
The pattern remains the same and so does the current price action that appears to be replicating the late August - early September leg. As you see, when SPX broke above the 4H MA50, it was on the same MACD pattern as today and the subsequent rally hit not only the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) but extended as high as the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous High. If completed, the 0.618 would fall exactly on the Lower Highs trend-line that started after the August 16 High.
You can approach this in segments. First target the 4H MA200 or the 0.5 Fib and if you want to assume some more risk, pursue eventually the 0.618 Fib. This pattern may be invalidated if the price breaks below the 4H MA50, in which case we will be looking for the 1W MA200 as our target again (red trend-line).
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S&P500: S&P-inkS&P500 seems to be tickled pink – metaphorically as well as literally. The index has taken to our expectations and has a lot of pink to face. First, the index should fall below the support at 3639 points and into the pink zone between 3598 and 3508 points to finish wave III in pink. Then, it should return above this mark once more to complete wave IV in pink in the pink zone between 3712 and 3885 points. Afterwards, S&P500 should finally move downwards again, heading for the zone between 3362 and 3271 points in – guess what? – pink!
S&P500 How to trade it following the 0.75% Rate HikeThe S&P500 index (SPX) dipped aggressively following yesterday's Fed Rate Decision, which was a natural reaction to the third straight 0.75% rate hike. The first one was made on Jun 15 2022 (rate gone from 1.00% up to 1.75%) and the second on July 27 2022 (rate gone from 1.75% to 2.50%).
In both cases the market reacted positively by the following day, despite rate hikes fundamentally being negative for stocks. Especially in the case of June 15, the market was surprised as it got an even higher than expected hike (the forecast was 0.50% instead of the actual 0.75%) but still digested the news in such a way that it made a bottom on June 16 and started a rally that rose by +19%. That is the fundamental outlook for the moment.
As far as the technical aspect is concerned, the index is below both the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) since September 13. The trend is bearish since the August 16 Top. Early in today's E.U. opening, the price is rebounding as it hit the top of the 3750 - 3720 Support Zone (1). As long as it holds, it can technically target the 4H MA50. Only a candle close above it can extend buying targeting the 4H MA200. Notice the similarities with the August 29 - September 07 Channel Down that eventually broke upwards and reached as high as the 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement Zone. That can make a perfect match with the 4H MA200. Note the similar patterns on the MACD as well.
A closing below Support Zone (1) however can deliver an rapid fall to Support Zone (2) 3660 - 3640 and eventually the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), which is the ultimate long-term Support.
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