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Standardandpoors

S&P500 Rebound on the Golden Ratio +1st Bullish Cross since 2020The S&P500 index (SPX) is staging its first strong rebound since the pull-back started on the August 16 High, a correction that we projected with our analysis below: The downtrend has stopped on a hugely important Support cluster: * First and foremost, it hit and rebounded on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (orange one), which is technically known as the Golden Ratio. * Secondly, it hit and rebounded exactly on the Higher Lows trend-line that started on the June 16 Low. That is the second contact made since. * Thirdly, the 1D RSI hit and rebounded exactly on its 8-month Support Zone. Among those Support levels, we should not overlook the highly critical emerging formation of the 1D MA50/100 Bullish Cross. That is when the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is crossing above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is considered a technical bullish pattern. If crossed, it will be the first such pattern since the June 17 2020 formation, which was on the market recovery trend-line following the March 2020 COVID crash. So where do all the above leave us now? We cannot ignore the big Resistance Zone of the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the January 04 Lower Highs trend-line, that rejected the price on the Aug 16 top. Those are now exactly on top of each other and should be the first important test of the current rebound. A break/ candle close above them should target 4515 level, which is the 3rd Lower High of the downtrend that SPX needs to fill. As you see on the chart, the last two got filled and formed strong Resistance levels in August. At that point onwards, a re-test of the 1D MA200 as a Support, would fuel the uptrend to the All Time High test. Extra attention is needed though at this stage as if the price is rejected again on the 1D MA50, the rebound attempt may end and if the pull-back causes a 1D candle to close below the 0.618 Fib, then the June Low can be tested and with that the ultimate Support of the 1W MA200 (red trend-line). Set your SLs exactly on the break-out points. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
4
S&P500 got rejected as expected. Now testing the first Support.The S&P500 index (SPX) had a strong rejection on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which we caught on the exact spot with our trading idea below 10 days ago: The timing on this projection couldn't have been better, with early signs of a possible pull-back obvious as the Overbought 1D RSI has always been a trigger for technical pull-backs ever since 2019! This is something we analyzed extensively on that analysis above, so if you want to get more insight on it, click on the idea chart. Friday saw the strongest 1-day pull-back of this selling sequence and broke below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) as well as the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and today the index hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) just above the 0.5 Fib level. As mentioned on the previous analysis, since 2019 such rejections on overbought 1D RSI levels have resulted into 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) tests 5 times. If it holds, a re-test of the 1D MA200 and the January 04 Lower Highs trend-line, which is the top of the 2022 Bearish Megaphone, is possible but unless it breaks, a new Low on the 0.618 Fib is likely. Only a candle close above the Lower Highs trend-line should be capable of extending this strong rally since June. As mentioned on the previous analysis, we would ideally like to see a break above the 0.618 Fib (from the January 04 ATH), as this is the Golden Ratio. Two factors that strengthen the chances of a bullish break-out is that this time (as opposed to the previous Megaphone Lower High rejection), 1) the MACD on the 1W chart is on a Bullish Cross, the first since November 05 2021 and 2) the 1D MA50 is close to crossing above the 1D MA100, which would be the first such Bullish Cross since June 16 2020 that was at the start of a 1 year and a half rally (see charts below): -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
2
S&P500 seeking two Support levels for the next leg upwards.The S&P500 Index (SPX) had a perfect rejection on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), exactly after our analysis last week: As you see, the rejection was not just on the 1D MA200 but also on the January 04 Lower Highs trend-line, essentially the Lower Highs trend-line starting from the All Time High (ATH). As we mentioned on that previous analysis, the rejection took place once the 1D RSI broke into the Overbought Territory. We made a good case that in the recent past however, such RSI overbought breaks, have proved to be only short-term index price rejections and technical pull-backs mostly attributed to profit taking. To be more precise, since 2019 such rejections on overbought 1D RSI levels have resulted into 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) tests 5 times, 1D MA100 (green trend-line) tests 1 time and 1D MA200 tests 2 times (but when price action was much more flat and of course we were not into such a high inflation correction). Scroll the chart to the left to see those. Currently the 1D MA100 is trading towards the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the Aug 16 High, while the 1D MA50 on the 0.5 Fib. If this is indeed the first rally of a new long-term Bull Phase, those are the Support levels to consider. But if the pattern since the ATH is a Bearish Megaphone, what gives the impression that it may be the first rally into a new Bull Phase? Well as you see on the snapshot below, the MACD on the 1W time-frame rose after a huge Bullish Cross, the first since November 05 2021. Also the 1W RSI broke above its Nov 19 2021 Lower Highs trend-line and made a high above the previous Lower High of April 01. In the event of a 1D MA200 break-out, we would ideally like to see a break above the 0.618 Fib (from the January 04 ATH), as this is the Golden Ratio. Also keep an eye on the RSI symmetrical Support Zone after Overbought rejections, for clues on where the price may rebound. We already broke inside it. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
14
S&P500 All time High trend-line is rejecting the uptrend!The S&P500 index (SPX) hit 3 days ago the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and got rejected. But perhaps an even more important development than that is the fact that this rejection also took place on the January 04 Lower Highs trend-line, practically the Resistance trend-line that started from the All Time High (ATH). We've been talking about the important of this trend-line since the March 29 Lower High but more recently warned you about on our July 27 analysis, where we gave the 2nd major break-out buy signal of the June rally: As you see, the 1D MA200 happens to be almost exactly where the 1W MA50 is, making it a major Resistance. The bearish sentiment gets even stronger, if we take a look at the 1D RSI, which is being rejected after breaking into the +70.00 Overbought Territory last Friday. In the recent past however, such RSI overbought breaks, have proved to be only short-term index price rejections and technical pull-backs mostly attributed to profit taking. After all, since the June 16 Low, the S&P500 has rallied almost +19%, the biggest non-pullback rally since September 02 2020! Just a reminder, we accurately captured the exact start of this mega rally with our analysis on June 20: To be more precise, since 2019 such rejections on overbought 1D RSI levels have resulted into 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) tests 5 times, 1D MA100 (green trend-line) tests 1 time and 1D MA200 tests 2 times (but when price action was much more flat and of course we were not into such a high inflation correction). Scroll the chart to the left to see those. Currently the 1D MA100 is trading towards the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the Aug 16 High, while the 1D MA50 on the 0.5 Fib. If this is indeed the first rally of a new long-term Bull Phase, those are the Support levels to consider. In the event of a 1D MA200 break-out, we would ideally like to see a break above the 0.618 Fib (from the January 04 ATH), as this is the Golden Ratio. In both cases, the risk is very low being so close to the 1D MA200 and the Jan Lower Highs trend-line, so if you are a short-term trader, manage your trades accordingly. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
1
S&P500: Rare, Medium or Done? 🥩That’s generally the question when preparing steaks. Additionally, we might also ask S&P500 whether it is already done – namely with wave V in pink and wave 3 in blue. We still give the index some time and room to finish them both, but afterwards, it should get started on a countermovement leading into the lower blue zone between 4144 and 3998 points. There, it should complete wave 4 in blue and subsequently take off again. There is also a 40% chance, though, that S&P500 could drop below the resistance at 3950 points, thus eliciting a detour below the next mark at 3639 points and into the turquoise zone between 3597 and 3353 points.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarketIntel
1
S&P500 closed above the 1W MA100. Last step before a +23% rally?The S&P500 index (SPX) closed its last 1W (weekly) candle above the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since May. This has been part of a very strong rally that started after the mid June low. The 1W MA100 has been instrumental in recent decades at deciding whether the index enters a Bear Market or resumes the Bull Market. As you see on this 1W time-frame chart, during the 2001/02 and 2008/09 Bear Cycles, S&P500 failed to break above the 1W MA100 upon a rebound test (January 2001 and May 2008) and eventually got rejected in a Bear Market. In fact in May 2008 the rejection was more clear on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is currently the Resistance level that the index is testing this week. If it fails here again, we can get a repeat of those Bear Cycles, where the price dipped -44.40% and 52.60% respectively from the 1W MA100 rejections. A -52% sell-off would put the index exactly where the 1M MA200 (red trend-line) is right now (around 2100). On the other hand, every other time that the SPX broke above the 1W MA100 and successfully held it, the price rallied (from the level of break-out) in the coming months/ years from a minimum of +23% (February 2019 - February 2020) to a maximum of +80% (October 2011 - June 2015) before it ran into another market top. In today's terms, that would be a minimum of 5100 (+23%) and a maximum of 7450 (+80%) from last week's 1W MA100 break-out point. Which scenario do you think it's going to be? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
8
S&P500 Short-term perspectiveThe S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading sideways practically since July 29 and as it failed to break the May 30 High and current Resistance (in fact got rejected near it on August 08), it broke below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). Even though the index had broken above its long-term Channel Down on 1D, on the shorter-term such as the 4H time-frame, there are some additional angles to consider before achieving higher targets. As this chart shows, the 4H RSI has formed a Channel Down while the price traded sideways, struggling to break above the May Resistance. The very same structure was also seen from May 30 to June 08. The bearish RSI made the sideways index trend break below the 4H MA50 and after a dead-cat-bounce, it sold-off aggressively. This time though, the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) isn't coming from above the 4H MA50 but is instead below it, ready to provide the crucial Support. In the same notion, the 1D MA50 (red trend-line), which already gave a price bounce on July 26. On any given moment, a break above the May Resistance would be a bullish break-out signal targeting the 1D MA200 (yellow trend-line) for the first time since April 21. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
4
S&P500 hit the top of its 7 month Channel. CAUTION.The S&P500 index (SPX) has reached the top of the Channel Down pattern that started on the January market high. This has completed our medium-term buy strategy on the Lower Low that we published 40 days ago: The Channel Down had to be adjusted slightly to fit the latest Lower Low and by doing so, it has brought the Lower High trend-line exactly where the price got rejected yesterday. This makes it a strong candidate for a medium-term top. The 1D RSI is also printing the very same peak formation. A tight SL sell on yesterday's High offers a great Risk/ Reward ratio, where we can target the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on the short-term and the 3740 Support on the medium-term. This needs to be tight as a break above yesterday's High can be enough to invalidate this 7 month Channel Down so in that case we will reverse to buys again, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), where the 0.618 Fibonacci level happens to be as well. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
3
S&P500 Huge buy signal on 1W. As early as it can possibly get.The S&P500 index (SPX) is close to printing the biggest buy signal possible on the 1W time-frame after the completion of this week. This is actually a combination of formation that, at least in the recent 4 years, when printed in this order, they established great buy opportunities as early as possible into a rally towards new All Time Highs (ATH). First and foremost, the index is close to a Bullish Cross on the 1W time-frame and that will be the first such occurrence since the November 01 2021 weekly candle. What's more relevant though, is that the last time we had this formed below the 0.0 level was on the May 11 2020 candle, which was after the market bottom of the March 2020 COVID crash and still at the beginning of the 2020/21 mega rally. Before that we had a MACD Bullish Cross below 0.0 on the January 28 2019 1W candle, when the market was recovering after the U.S. - China trade war tensions. In addition, last week the index broke and closed above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line on this chart) for the first time since March. As shown on the chart since 2018, in the three times the price broke above the 1D MA50 while a 1W MACD Bullish Cross followed shortly, that was always the start of a rally to a new All Time High. In the case of 2019 and 2020 particularly, the index reached the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) three and six weeks respectively after the 1D MA50 break. As a result that can be as early as the first week of September with the 1W MA50 currently trading at 4354 and declining. It is also important to mention that all such bullish signals were formed with the price always above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which is currently the Support. Also, along with last week's 1D MA50 break, the index broke above the Lower Highs trend-line (1) that started on the March High and was exactly on the 1D MA50. Interestingly enough, the next and final Lower Highs trend-line (2) of the January High happens to be almost parallel with the 1W MA50. As a result if we break above it, again it will be a double Resistance bullish break-out and most likely will restore completely the long-term bullish sentiment to the market. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
14
S&P500 Test of 4HMA50. Kept Support but many Resistances above.The S&P500 index has been trading mostly sideways since the June 27 High. The pattern that stands out during that time is a Triangle, with the price keeping (and rebounding since yesterday on) the 3750 Support intact (closed all 4H candles above it). The top of the Triangle involves a Lower Highs trend-line, approximately on the same path of the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) that already has two clear rejections on the patterns Lower Highs. At the moment the price is testing the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and naturally if broken a 4H MA200 test should follow. There are many Resistance levels up ahead, even if we close above the 4H MA200, we need to consider the Resistance strength of the 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci zones of the Channel Down (remember it is the dominant pattern throughout the whole year when the correction started). The short-term strategy is to take one Resistance at a time and target the higher levels only if we get a clear 4H candle closing above the current Resistance at hand. In the same notion, a break above the Channel Down, which is approximately where the 0.382 Fib is, targets the 0.618 level at around 4320. Similarly a closing below the 3750 Support, targets the 0.236 Fibonacci level. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 about to test the 1D MA50 for 1st time since AprilThe S&P500 index (SPX) has completed three straight green 1D candles and is approaching the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for a test that would be its first since April 21. This idea is basically a continuation of out analysis posted two weeks ago, exactly at the bottom (Lower Low) of the Channel Down: With the markets anticipating favorable NFP numbers today, the index is well on its way to repeat the March rise to a new Channel Down Lower High. That sequence topped a little over the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level but if repeated, that would push the price above the Channel around 4320, which is also approximately where the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is. Based on the 1D RSI pattern of the same sequence, we are exactly at the point before the 1D MA50 break-out. If you followed us on the bottom call, you may book the profit and re-engage either if the 1D MA50 breaks or upon a pull-back. In either case, the technical Lower High and target should not exceed 4100. The invalidation of this pattern will come only with a weekly closing below the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), in which case we may see a rapid sell-off towards the 1M MA100. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 1D MA50 ahead. Careful about this Double Bottom scenario.As with the other stock indices, we have certain type of patterns for S&P500 that help us identify medium/ long-term trends and take low risk/ high return positions on the market. In this case, it has been the Channel Down on the 1D time-frame since the January 04 All Time High that has given us both the previous Lower High and Lower Low: As you see last week's rise was accurately identified and even though we haven't reached the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) yet, you may start considering taking full or partial profits as during the last Lower Low rally, the initial rebound was fake and the price was rejected before the 1D MA50 and the 0.382 Fibonacci level back for a Double Bottom to confirm the buying accumulation. A similar scenario can therefore take the index back near 3640 and then rebound towards the Lower Highs (top) trend-line of the Channel Down. A viable strategy would be to take at least some profits now and then either buy on the pull-back or if a 1D candle closes above the 1D MA50 first. Planning a little ahead of this, a closing above the Lower Highs of the Channel Down sets target on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), while a weekly one below the 1 MA200 (red trend-line) should target the 1W MA300 (yellow trend-line, scroll chart lower). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
11
S&P500 Bullish month ahead towards at least the 1D MA50The S&P500 index continues to trade within a long-term Channel Down, providing excellent trade opportunities on its Lower Highs and Lower Lows. Our previous analysis on this symbol was a sell warning as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) was resisting: As it turned out, that was the most optimal sell of this phase and the index confirmed our trading plan by making a new Lower Low on the Channel. Being just shy off the -0.236 Fibonacci extension, we expect the index to reverse now and rebound on a 1 month horizon. This is further backed by the 1D RSI Double Bottom on the oversold barrier. That continues to mirror the Lower Lows sequence of late January - February 2022, which initiated a rebound towards the Lower Highs (top) trend-line of the Channel Down, above both the 1D MA50 and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). That Lower High was priced on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous Lower Low. That level is now around 4323, which is above the Channel Down, so a more modest target set would be first the 1D MA50, which at the time should be around 3950 and with a candle closing above it, an extension target near the top (Lower Highs) of the Channel, around 4100. The invalidation of this pattern will come only with a weekly closing below the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), in which case we may see a rapid sell-off towards the 1M MA100. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by TradingShot
4
S&P500 The 1W MA200 seems inevitable but there's also good newsIt has only been five months since I posted the following chart in January, calling for high yearly volatility ahead due to a U.S. elections pattern I discovered: ** The 2008 Recovery Channel ** Of course I didn't expect the S&P500 index (SPX) to reach its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) that quickly, but still the chart was a right one. The index has made a new yearly low this week and this 1W chart displays the dynamics of the Channel Up the index has been trading in since it started recovering from the 2008 Bear Market. With the Fed Rate Decision today being pivotal to the stock markets' trend and a lot of market participants calling for a recession, it is useful to see what the long-term indicators are showing us. ** The 1W MA200 ** First of all as mentioned, it is very close to testing the 1W MA200, basically only 230 points (currently at 3502.96). Why all the talk about the 1W MA200? Because as you see on the chart, it has been the long-term Support of this 12 year Channel and has only broken significantly lower once on March 2020 during the COVID crash, which was a situation (economic lockdowns) completely new to the market. This is why I've included the -0.5 Fibonacci extension on the Channel because it shows that extreme, same as the 1.5 that shows the bullish extreme of the post COVID aggressive money printing to stimulate the economy. ** The 1W RSI and LMACD ** I believe the index will hit the 1W MA200 within a month's time and by then, the 1W RSI could be as low as during the COVID crash (March 16 2020). The 1W LMACD hasn't yet made a Bullish Cross but is very close to the COVID low. Every time the 1W MA200 is hit during these 12 years, an LMACD Bullish Cross has always confirmed the uptrend and recovery back to the prior Highs. ** We can recover by the end of the year ** So you may be wondering, what are the good news? Well, a very interesting stat is that on all those four occasions, it took S&P500 within 19 - 26 weeks from the moment it hit the 1W MA200 to reach its prior High. Assuming it hits the 1W MA200 by the end of July, we can recover the loss of this correction by the end of the year (or January 2023 tops). If the 1W MA200 fails to support the index and closes monthly candles below it, then it is more likely to see a strong crash to the 1M MA100 (red trend-line at 2826.50) as in the March 2020 COVID sell-off. Interestingly enough, the 1M MA100 is currently exactly on the -0.5 Fibonacci extension that supported the COVID crash. Where do you think S&P500 will find support next? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
7
S&P500 The 1D MA50 is resisting. Scenarios ahead.The S&P500 index (SPX) rose rapidly and almost hit its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the current Resistance, since our last post: The long-term pattern remains a Channel Down since the All Time Highs (ATH), so the trend remains bearish towards the 3810 Support and quite possibly the -0.236 Fibonacci extension as a Lower Low. The fact that the price is struggling to break the 1D MA50, further strengthens this notion. Even a break above the 1D MA50, won't be enough to turn the price bullish long-term, only on the short-term towards the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which was the Resistance level during the January 24 rebound. See how the 1D RSI is currently on similar levels. A break-out buy signal wouldn't be if the price closes above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), with a short-term target the 4640 Resistance (and March 29 High). Above the level, we can claim that the index has restored the long-term bullish trend. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
9
INFLATION testing a 100 year old trend-line. How will S&P react?This is an interesting analysis as the U.S. Inflation Rate (orange trend-line) is testing for the first time since early 1980 a Lower Highs trend-line that started after the High of July 1920, exactly 100 years ago! This Lower Highs trend-line has made another 2 contacts after that and it is interesting to see how the S&P500 index (blue trend-line, SPX) has behaved upon such tests (and rejections). As you see, every time the Inflation Rate hit that Lower Highs trend-line (Resistance), the S&P500 index went through a roughly 1.5 - 2 year period of correction. This was a high volatility phase, with the S&P500 correction on two out of the three occasions starting before the Inflation Rate hit the Lower Highs zone. Note that even though it was a correction, it was never in the magnitude of a Bear Cycle such as 2000/02, 2008/09 or even worse the 1929/32 Great Depression. As a result, and since the correction has already started at the start of the year (2022), before the Inflation Rate reached the historic Lower Highs trend-line, we can say that it resembles more the cases of July 1920 and May 1947. Those bottomed on July 1921 and June 1949, so 1 and 2 years respectively after the Lower Highs rejection. Can this mean that we still have another 1 - 2 years of volatility ahead of us before bottoming? What's your view on this analysis? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SP:SPX
by TradingShot
16
S&P500 Bear Cycle or just correction? Key indicators to considerThe S&P500 index (SPX) broke back above the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), which it lost as a Support early in May. This is a trend-line that has broken in all of major corrections (4 in total) since the 2008/09 Bear Cycle of the Subprime mortgage crisis. So is this simply such a correction or the start of a new Bear Cycle? Let's see a few markers that played an important role in the past. ** The 1W RSI Lower Highs trend-line ** First and foremost, since the May 16 2022 1W candle (this analysis is on the 1W (weekly) time-frame), the RSI has been rising towards the Lower Highs (LH) trend-line formed from the recent High (All Time High to be exact). In all previous corrections, once the price broke above this LH trend-line, then the trend resumed the bullish course. Note that the RSI rebound is coming after an exact hit on the 30.00 RSI level, which is the bottom of its multi-year Support Zone. This Support Zone has broken only twice in the past 14 years: near the end of the 2008/09 Bear Cycle and on March 2020 during the panic sale amidst the COVID outbreak. Also, regarding the LH trend-line, we have to mention that it marginally broke in late October 2015 but still the index made a new Low. So we have to give this line some room even if it breaks soon. ** The role of the 1W MA200 and 1D MA100 and the key Buy Signal ** Every correction hit the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) after breaking the 1W MA100. Currently that is around 3495. There are two cases in which this can be avoided. First, as mentioned above, if the 1W RSI breaks above its LH trend-line. And second, if the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) approaches or even better hit the 1W MA100 prior. Those two are very close now. Once they converge, that is historically the strongest long-term buy signal in recent years. ** The 0.618 Fibonacci as the difference between a correction and a Bear Cycle ** A critical marker as well, is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. This may as well be called 'the difference between a Bull correction and a Bear Cycle'. As you see, the 0.618 Fib level from the bottom has always broken on every correction but failed to break the one time which later turned out to be the subprime Bear Market. Assuming May's low is the bottom, the 0.618 Fib is currently around 4435. That means that if it breaks, we can call the value loss since the start of the year, a correction and not the start of a Bear Cycle. ** Conclusion ** Well there is not much to be said in an analysis like this, the chart is pretty much self-explanatory. Perhaps what you can keep as a long-term investor/ trader is that you can either buy again with a relative degree of safety either above the 0.618 Fib (4435) or when the 1W RSI breaks its Lower Highs and the 1D MA100 comes close (or touches) the 1W MA100. As you see such patterns turn to pay big with the lowest possible risk and are rarely presented opportunities. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SP:SPX
by TradingShot
8
S&P500: No LazybonesDespite the holiday in the United States, S&P500 has not been lazing around but has climbed into the middle white zone between 4156 and 4224 points. There, the index should finish wave (3) in white and subsequently start a countermovement into the lower white zone between 4076 and 3999 points. After it has completed wave (4) in white in this region, S&P500 should turn around and head for the upper white zone between 4332 and 4400 points to finish wave (5) in white. However, there is a 38% chance that the index could break through the bottom of the lower white zone, fall below the support at 3855 points and drop into the magenta zone between 3788 and 3683 points.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarketIntel
SPX - Bear market rally on a horizont? After making a new low on 20th May 2022, SPX erased some of its losses and bounced back into the proximity of 4000 USD. Currently, it trades around the 3960 USD price tag. We continue to be bearish on SPX; however, after more than a month and a half of the selling in major U.S. indices, we are on the lookout for a possible bear market rally. Therefore, we will pay close attention to the sloped resistance indicated by the yellow dashed line. If SPX manages to break above it, then it might mark the start of the two-to-three-week bear market rally. Technical analysis - daily time frame MACD performed a bullish crossover; however, it still remains in the bearish territory. RSI and Stochastic point to the upside, which is bullish. DM+ and DM- show bearish conditions in the market. The ADX contains a relatively high value, suggesting peaking conditions or a very strong trend. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral/slightly bullish. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows SPX's return to the channel. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish. DM+ and DM- are also bearish. The ADX increases. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
6
S&P500 against Bonds during Rate Hikes.This chart displays the ratio of S&P500 against the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF on the 1W time-frame. The green trend-line represents the Federal Funds Rate. The RSI on the pane below the chart, is illustrated on the 1M time-frame and based on the Channel Down it has been since May 2021, it resembles more the price action of late 2003/2004. Interestingly enough, it was in mid 2004 that the Fed Rate has started to rise following the stock market recovery from the DotCom crash. The Fibonacci Channel with the 0.236, 0.382, 05, 0.618, 0.786 retracement levels is applied on this ratio and since the stock market recovery from the 2007/08 Subprime Mortgage crisis, the Fib 0.618 band was the Resistance. Now it appears that we have moved a level higher on the 0.786 Fib. This model shows that there is no major crash ahead of us and most likely we will trade within those bands for a few years more before a bigger correction/ recession on the stock market. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SP:SPX
by TradingShot
5
S&P500 made a Channel Down bottom. Rebound or break lower?The S&P500 index (SPX) made today a core technical Lower Low (bottom) on the Channel Down pattern that has been trading in since the January 04 All Time High (ATH). Last time the price hit that Lower Lows trend-line, it held and after 3 weeks of high volatility, it posted an aggressive rebound towards the Lower Highs (top) trend-line of the pattern, just below hte 0.786 Fibonacci retracement. As long as the Lower Lows trend-line holds, it is more likely for S&P500 to rebound within a 1 month horizon, towards the Lower Highs trend-line around the 0.786 Fib, which is at 4480. The 1D RSI Channel of Higher Lows and Higher High (i.e. bullish divergence against the bearish price action), remains also intact, in fact yesterday bounced off the Higher Lows trend-line. Keep your stops tight though if you are on a tight margin as a 1D candle close below the Channel Down, could be technically interpreted as a bearish extension signal. Typically such big stock market corrections seek their 1W MMA200 (red trend-line) before they make a Bear Cycle bottom and start the new Bull Cycle. That would almost be a -28% correction from the All Time High. As for the long-term bullish trend, in order for that to be restored, the index would have to break above the 4635 Resistance, which is the previous Lower High. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
3