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S&P500 closed above the 1W MA100. Last step before a +23% rally?The S&P500 index (SPX) closed its last 1W (weekly) candle above the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since May. This has been part of a very strong rally that started after the mid June low. The 1W MA100 has been instrumental in recent decades at deciding whether the index enters a Bear Market or resumes the Bull Market. As you see on this 1W time-frame chart, during the 2001/02 and 2008/09 Bear Cycles, S&P500 failed to break above the 1W MA100 upon a rebound test (January 2001 and May 2008) and eventually got rejected in a Bear Market. In fact in May 2008 the rejection was more clear on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is currently the Resistance level that the index is testing this week. If it fails here again, we can get a repeat of those Bear Cycles, where the price dipped -44.40% and 52.60% respectively from the 1W MA100 rejections. A -52% sell-off would put the index exactly where the 1M MA200 (red trend-line) is right now (around 2100). On the other hand, every other time that the SPX broke above the 1W MA100 and successfully held it, the price rallied (from the level of break-out) in the coming months/ years from a minimum of +23% (February 2019 - February 2020) to a maximum of +80% (October 2011 - June 2015) before it ran into another market top. In today's terms, that would be a minimum of 5100 (+23%) and a maximum of 7450 (+80%) from last week's 1W MA100 break-out point. Which scenario do you think it's going to be? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
8
S&P500 Short-term perspectiveThe S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading sideways practically since July 29 and as it failed to break the May 30 High and current Resistance (in fact got rejected near it on August 08), it broke below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). Even though the index had broken above its long-term Channel Down on 1D, on the shorter-term such as the 4H time-frame, there are some additional angles to consider before achieving higher targets. As this chart shows, the 4H RSI has formed a Channel Down while the price traded sideways, struggling to break above the May Resistance. The very same structure was also seen from May 30 to June 08. The bearish RSI made the sideways index trend break below the 4H MA50 and after a dead-cat-bounce, it sold-off aggressively. This time though, the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) isn't coming from above the 4H MA50 but is instead below it, ready to provide the crucial Support. In the same notion, the 1D MA50 (red trend-line), which already gave a price bounce on July 26. On any given moment, a break above the May Resistance would be a bullish break-out signal targeting the 1D MA200 (yellow trend-line) for the first time since April 21. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
4
S&P500 hit the top of its 7 month Channel. CAUTION.The S&P500 index (SPX) has reached the top of the Channel Down pattern that started on the January market high. This has completed our medium-term buy strategy on the Lower Low that we published 40 days ago: The Channel Down had to be adjusted slightly to fit the latest Lower Low and by doing so, it has brought the Lower High trend-line exactly where the price got rejected yesterday. This makes it a strong candidate for a medium-term top. The 1D RSI is also printing the very same peak formation. A tight SL sell on yesterday's High offers a great Risk/ Reward ratio, where we can target the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on the short-term and the 3740 Support on the medium-term. This needs to be tight as a break above yesterday's High can be enough to invalidate this 7 month Channel Down so in that case we will reverse to buys again, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), where the 0.618 Fibonacci level happens to be as well. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
3
S&P500 Huge buy signal on 1W. As early as it can possibly get.The S&P500 index (SPX) is close to printing the biggest buy signal possible on the 1W time-frame after the completion of this week. This is actually a combination of formation that, at least in the recent 4 years, when printed in this order, they established great buy opportunities as early as possible into a rally towards new All Time Highs (ATH). First and foremost, the index is close to a Bullish Cross on the 1W time-frame and that will be the first such occurrence since the November 01 2021 weekly candle. What's more relevant though, is that the last time we had this formed below the 0.0 level was on the May 11 2020 candle, which was after the market bottom of the March 2020 COVID crash and still at the beginning of the 2020/21 mega rally. Before that we had a MACD Bullish Cross below 0.0 on the January 28 2019 1W candle, when the market was recovering after the U.S. - China trade war tensions. In addition, last week the index broke and closed above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line on this chart) for the first time since March. As shown on the chart since 2018, in the three times the price broke above the 1D MA50 while a 1W MACD Bullish Cross followed shortly, that was always the start of a rally to a new All Time High. In the case of 2019 and 2020 particularly, the index reached the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) three and six weeks respectively after the 1D MA50 break. As a result that can be as early as the first week of September with the 1W MA50 currently trading at 4354 and declining. It is also important to mention that all such bullish signals were formed with the price always above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which is currently the Support. Also, along with last week's 1D MA50 break, the index broke above the Lower Highs trend-line (1) that started on the March High and was exactly on the 1D MA50. Interestingly enough, the next and final Lower Highs trend-line (2) of the January High happens to be almost parallel with the 1W MA50. As a result if we break above it, again it will be a double Resistance bullish break-out and most likely will restore completely the long-term bullish sentiment to the market. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
14
S&P500 Test of 4HMA50. Kept Support but many Resistances above.The S&P500 index has been trading mostly sideways since the June 27 High. The pattern that stands out during that time is a Triangle, with the price keeping (and rebounding since yesterday on) the 3750 Support intact (closed all 4H candles above it). The top of the Triangle involves a Lower Highs trend-line, approximately on the same path of the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) that already has two clear rejections on the patterns Lower Highs. At the moment the price is testing the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and naturally if broken a 4H MA200 test should follow. There are many Resistance levels up ahead, even if we close above the 4H MA200, we need to consider the Resistance strength of the 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci zones of the Channel Down (remember it is the dominant pattern throughout the whole year when the correction started). The short-term strategy is to take one Resistance at a time and target the higher levels only if we get a clear 4H candle closing above the current Resistance at hand. In the same notion, a break above the Channel Down, which is approximately where the 0.382 Fib is, targets the 0.618 level at around 4320. Similarly a closing below the 3750 Support, targets the 0.236 Fibonacci level. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 about to test the 1D MA50 for 1st time since AprilThe S&P500 index (SPX) has completed three straight green 1D candles and is approaching the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for a test that would be its first since April 21. This idea is basically a continuation of out analysis posted two weeks ago, exactly at the bottom (Lower Low) of the Channel Down: With the markets anticipating favorable NFP numbers today, the index is well on its way to repeat the March rise to a new Channel Down Lower High. That sequence topped a little over the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level but if repeated, that would push the price above the Channel around 4320, which is also approximately where the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is. Based on the 1D RSI pattern of the same sequence, we are exactly at the point before the 1D MA50 break-out. If you followed us on the bottom call, you may book the profit and re-engage either if the 1D MA50 breaks or upon a pull-back. In either case, the technical Lower High and target should not exceed 4100. The invalidation of this pattern will come only with a weekly closing below the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), in which case we may see a rapid sell-off towards the 1M MA100. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 1D MA50 ahead. Careful about this Double Bottom scenario.As with the other stock indices, we have certain type of patterns for S&P500 that help us identify medium/ long-term trends and take low risk/ high return positions on the market. In this case, it has been the Channel Down on the 1D time-frame since the January 04 All Time High that has given us both the previous Lower High and Lower Low: As you see last week's rise was accurately identified and even though we haven't reached the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) yet, you may start considering taking full or partial profits as during the last Lower Low rally, the initial rebound was fake and the price was rejected before the 1D MA50 and the 0.382 Fibonacci level back for a Double Bottom to confirm the buying accumulation. A similar scenario can therefore take the index back near 3640 and then rebound towards the Lower Highs (top) trend-line of the Channel Down. A viable strategy would be to take at least some profits now and then either buy on the pull-back or if a 1D candle closes above the 1D MA50 first. Planning a little ahead of this, a closing above the Lower Highs of the Channel Down sets target on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), while a weekly one below the 1 MA200 (red trend-line) should target the 1W MA300 (yellow trend-line, scroll chart lower). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
11
S&P500 Bullish month ahead towards at least the 1D MA50The S&P500 index continues to trade within a long-term Channel Down, providing excellent trade opportunities on its Lower Highs and Lower Lows. Our previous analysis on this symbol was a sell warning as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) was resisting: As it turned out, that was the most optimal sell of this phase and the index confirmed our trading plan by making a new Lower Low on the Channel. Being just shy off the -0.236 Fibonacci extension, we expect the index to reverse now and rebound on a 1 month horizon. This is further backed by the 1D RSI Double Bottom on the oversold barrier. That continues to mirror the Lower Lows sequence of late January - February 2022, which initiated a rebound towards the Lower Highs (top) trend-line of the Channel Down, above both the 1D MA50 and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). That Lower High was priced on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous Lower Low. That level is now around 4323, which is above the Channel Down, so a more modest target set would be first the 1D MA50, which at the time should be around 3950 and with a candle closing above it, an extension target near the top (Lower Highs) of the Channel, around 4100. The invalidation of this pattern will come only with a weekly closing below the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), in which case we may see a rapid sell-off towards the 1M MA100. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by TradingShot
4
S&P500 The 1W MA200 seems inevitable but there's also good newsIt has only been five months since I posted the following chart in January, calling for high yearly volatility ahead due to a U.S. elections pattern I discovered: ** The 2008 Recovery Channel ** Of course I didn't expect the S&P500 index (SPX) to reach its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) that quickly, but still the chart was a right one. The index has made a new yearly low this week and this 1W chart displays the dynamics of the Channel Up the index has been trading in since it started recovering from the 2008 Bear Market. With the Fed Rate Decision today being pivotal to the stock markets' trend and a lot of market participants calling for a recession, it is useful to see what the long-term indicators are showing us. ** The 1W MA200 ** First of all as mentioned, it is very close to testing the 1W MA200, basically only 230 points (currently at 3502.96). Why all the talk about the 1W MA200? Because as you see on the chart, it has been the long-term Support of this 12 year Channel and has only broken significantly lower once on March 2020 during the COVID crash, which was a situation (economic lockdowns) completely new to the market. This is why I've included the -0.5 Fibonacci extension on the Channel because it shows that extreme, same as the 1.5 that shows the bullish extreme of the post COVID aggressive money printing to stimulate the economy. ** The 1W RSI and LMACD ** I believe the index will hit the 1W MA200 within a month's time and by then, the 1W RSI could be as low as during the COVID crash (March 16 2020). The 1W LMACD hasn't yet made a Bullish Cross but is very close to the COVID low. Every time the 1W MA200 is hit during these 12 years, an LMACD Bullish Cross has always confirmed the uptrend and recovery back to the prior Highs. ** We can recover by the end of the year ** So you may be wondering, what are the good news? Well, a very interesting stat is that on all those four occasions, it took S&P500 within 19 - 26 weeks from the moment it hit the 1W MA200 to reach its prior High. Assuming it hits the 1W MA200 by the end of July, we can recover the loss of this correction by the end of the year (or January 2023 tops). If the 1W MA200 fails to support the index and closes monthly candles below it, then it is more likely to see a strong crash to the 1M MA100 (red trend-line at 2826.50) as in the March 2020 COVID sell-off. Interestingly enough, the 1M MA100 is currently exactly on the -0.5 Fibonacci extension that supported the COVID crash. Where do you think S&P500 will find support next? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
7
S&P500 The 1D MA50 is resisting. Scenarios ahead.The S&P500 index (SPX) rose rapidly and almost hit its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the current Resistance, since our last post: The long-term pattern remains a Channel Down since the All Time Highs (ATH), so the trend remains bearish towards the 3810 Support and quite possibly the -0.236 Fibonacci extension as a Lower Low. The fact that the price is struggling to break the 1D MA50, further strengthens this notion. Even a break above the 1D MA50, won't be enough to turn the price bullish long-term, only on the short-term towards the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which was the Resistance level during the January 24 rebound. See how the 1D RSI is currently on similar levels. A break-out buy signal wouldn't be if the price closes above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), with a short-term target the 4640 Resistance (and March 29 High). Above the level, we can claim that the index has restored the long-term bullish trend. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
9
INFLATION testing a 100 year old trend-line. How will S&P react?This is an interesting analysis as the U.S. Inflation Rate (orange trend-line) is testing for the first time since early 1980 a Lower Highs trend-line that started after the High of July 1920, exactly 100 years ago! This Lower Highs trend-line has made another 2 contacts after that and it is interesting to see how the S&P500 index (blue trend-line, SPX) has behaved upon such tests (and rejections). As you see, every time the Inflation Rate hit that Lower Highs trend-line (Resistance), the S&P500 index went through a roughly 1.5 - 2 year period of correction. This was a high volatility phase, with the S&P500 correction on two out of the three occasions starting before the Inflation Rate hit the Lower Highs zone. Note that even though it was a correction, it was never in the magnitude of a Bear Cycle such as 2000/02, 2008/09 or even worse the 1929/32 Great Depression. As a result, and since the correction has already started at the start of the year (2022), before the Inflation Rate reached the historic Lower Highs trend-line, we can say that it resembles more the cases of July 1920 and May 1947. Those bottomed on July 1921 and June 1949, so 1 and 2 years respectively after the Lower Highs rejection. Can this mean that we still have another 1 - 2 years of volatility ahead of us before bottoming? What's your view on this analysis? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SP:SPX
by TradingShot
16
S&P500 Bear Cycle or just correction? Key indicators to considerThe S&P500 index (SPX) broke back above the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), which it lost as a Support early in May. This is a trend-line that has broken in all of major corrections (4 in total) since the 2008/09 Bear Cycle of the Subprime mortgage crisis. So is this simply such a correction or the start of a new Bear Cycle? Let's see a few markers that played an important role in the past. ** The 1W RSI Lower Highs trend-line ** First and foremost, since the May 16 2022 1W candle (this analysis is on the 1W (weekly) time-frame), the RSI has been rising towards the Lower Highs (LH) trend-line formed from the recent High (All Time High to be exact). In all previous corrections, once the price broke above this LH trend-line, then the trend resumed the bullish course. Note that the RSI rebound is coming after an exact hit on the 30.00 RSI level, which is the bottom of its multi-year Support Zone. This Support Zone has broken only twice in the past 14 years: near the end of the 2008/09 Bear Cycle and on March 2020 during the panic sale amidst the COVID outbreak. Also, regarding the LH trend-line, we have to mention that it marginally broke in late October 2015 but still the index made a new Low. So we have to give this line some room even if it breaks soon. ** The role of the 1W MA200 and 1D MA100 and the key Buy Signal ** Every correction hit the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) after breaking the 1W MA100. Currently that is around 3495. There are two cases in which this can be avoided. First, as mentioned above, if the 1W RSI breaks above its LH trend-line. And second, if the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) approaches or even better hit the 1W MA100 prior. Those two are very close now. Once they converge, that is historically the strongest long-term buy signal in recent years. ** The 0.618 Fibonacci as the difference between a correction and a Bear Cycle ** A critical marker as well, is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. This may as well be called 'the difference between a Bull correction and a Bear Cycle'. As you see, the 0.618 Fib level from the bottom has always broken on every correction but failed to break the one time which later turned out to be the subprime Bear Market. Assuming May's low is the bottom, the 0.618 Fib is currently around 4435. That means that if it breaks, we can call the value loss since the start of the year, a correction and not the start of a Bear Cycle. ** Conclusion ** Well there is not much to be said in an analysis like this, the chart is pretty much self-explanatory. Perhaps what you can keep as a long-term investor/ trader is that you can either buy again with a relative degree of safety either above the 0.618 Fib (4435) or when the 1W RSI breaks its Lower Highs and the 1D MA100 comes close (or touches) the 1W MA100. As you see such patterns turn to pay big with the lowest possible risk and are rarely presented opportunities. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SP:SPX
by TradingShot
8
S&P500: No LazybonesDespite the holiday in the United States, S&P500 has not been lazing around but has climbed into the middle white zone between 4156 and 4224 points. There, the index should finish wave (3) in white and subsequently start a countermovement into the lower white zone between 4076 and 3999 points. After it has completed wave (4) in white in this region, S&P500 should turn around and head for the upper white zone between 4332 and 4400 points to finish wave (5) in white. However, there is a 38% chance that the index could break through the bottom of the lower white zone, fall below the support at 3855 points and drop into the magenta zone between 3788 and 3683 points.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarketIntel
SPX - Bear market rally on a horizont? After making a new low on 20th May 2022, SPX erased some of its losses and bounced back into the proximity of 4000 USD. Currently, it trades around the 3960 USD price tag. We continue to be bearish on SPX; however, after more than a month and a half of the selling in major U.S. indices, we are on the lookout for a possible bear market rally. Therefore, we will pay close attention to the sloped resistance indicated by the yellow dashed line. If SPX manages to break above it, then it might mark the start of the two-to-three-week bear market rally. Technical analysis - daily time frame MACD performed a bullish crossover; however, it still remains in the bearish territory. RSI and Stochastic point to the upside, which is bullish. DM+ and DM- show bearish conditions in the market. The ADX contains a relatively high value, suggesting peaking conditions or a very strong trend. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral/slightly bullish. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows SPX's return to the channel. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish. DM+ and DM- are also bearish. The ADX increases. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
6
S&P500 against Bonds during Rate Hikes.This chart displays the ratio of S&P500 against the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF on the 1W time-frame. The green trend-line represents the Federal Funds Rate. The RSI on the pane below the chart, is illustrated on the 1M time-frame and based on the Channel Down it has been since May 2021, it resembles more the price action of late 2003/2004. Interestingly enough, it was in mid 2004 that the Fed Rate has started to rise following the stock market recovery from the DotCom crash. The Fibonacci Channel with the 0.236, 0.382, 05, 0.618, 0.786 retracement levels is applied on this ratio and since the stock market recovery from the 2007/08 Subprime Mortgage crisis, the Fib 0.618 band was the Resistance. Now it appears that we have moved a level higher on the 0.786 Fib. This model shows that there is no major crash ahead of us and most likely we will trade within those bands for a few years more before a bigger correction/ recession on the stock market. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SP:SPX
by TradingShot
5
S&P500 made a Channel Down bottom. Rebound or break lower?The S&P500 index (SPX) made today a core technical Lower Low (bottom) on the Channel Down pattern that has been trading in since the January 04 All Time High (ATH). Last time the price hit that Lower Lows trend-line, it held and after 3 weeks of high volatility, it posted an aggressive rebound towards the Lower Highs (top) trend-line of the pattern, just below hte 0.786 Fibonacci retracement. As long as the Lower Lows trend-line holds, it is more likely for S&P500 to rebound within a 1 month horizon, towards the Lower Highs trend-line around the 0.786 Fib, which is at 4480. The 1D RSI Channel of Higher Lows and Higher High (i.e. bullish divergence against the bearish price action), remains also intact, in fact yesterday bounced off the Higher Lows trend-line. Keep your stops tight though if you are on a tight margin as a 1D candle close below the Channel Down, could be technically interpreted as a bearish extension signal. Typically such big stock market corrections seek their 1W MMA200 (red trend-line) before they make a Bear Cycle bottom and start the new Bull Cycle. That would almost be a -28% correction from the All Time High. As for the long-term bullish trend, in order for that to be restored, the index would have to break above the 4635 Resistance, which is the previous Lower High. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
3
S&P500 Sell in May and go away? Is it actually true or a myth?You've heard this expression before: "Sell in May and go away". It is an old Wall Street saying that basically prompts stock investors to sell in May as the market prepares to enter the Summer period that is supposedly characterized of thin volume as fund managers lighten their stock portfolios and reduce their activity due to vacation leaves etc. But how accurate is this really? Is it reality or a myth? This is the S&P500 (SPX) chart on the 1M (monthly) time-frame where I look into the month of May price action (as well as before and after) since the subprime mortgage crisis of 2007/08. As you see, out of this sample of 13 events (May months), we've have 8 cases where May was bullish and extended or started a rise, 3 cases where the price action was bearish on or after May for at least one month and 2 cases where May was bearish but a big rally started after. This alone shows that "sell in May and go away" isn't that accurate. A more interesting aspect is perhaps the fact that in all cases where a big dip preceded May's price action, the actual month of May was Bullish (May 2009, May 2018, May 2020). I mention that because it is directly related to today, as we are all aware of that the price action since the start of the year (January 2022) has been a strong correction due to the raging inflation and the Ukraine - Russia war among other reasons. This indicates that then the market had already correction and is oversold, investors tend to buy in this opportunity in May. Since S&P500 has already corrected more than -17%, will May 2022 close in green despite the current disappointing opening? Let me know in the comments section below. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
9
S&P500 targeting 4400 on this wave. Conditions for long-term.The S&P500 index (SPX) turned the price action since the start of 2022 into a Channel Down pattern. Monday's low came very close to the 1W MA100 (red trend-line), which is a level intact since May 18 2020. A weekly (1W) candle close below it, will most likely kick-start a new round of aggressive selling. As long as it holds though, it is more likely to see the index rebound to at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which is now a little over 4400. That would be within the Lower Highs zone of the Channel Down. That's the medium-term projection at least. On the long-term though, based on a distant fractal of similar price action from June 2015 to January 2016, we can only expect an extended rise, if the 4640 High (currently the Resistance) breaks. That is at least what happened in June 07 2016, where after an initial pull-back, the long-term bullish trend was resumed. Notice also the similarities on the 1D RSI sequences. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 Huge Inverse Head & Shoulders completed.The S&P500 index is having a very aggressive sell-off following Jerome Powell's remarks on a 50 basis point hike in May. As you see on the chart, the rejection took place on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), broke below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and is about to test today the 1D MA400 (green trend-line). Why the 1D MA400 is so important? Because during the February - March 'war' correction, it provided support twice (on Feb 24 and March 15). Besides the 1D MA400, the price just hit the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level (4220 roughly). Fibonacci retracement levels during this 2022 correction have been instrumental in forming Support and Resistance levels. As shown on the chart, the 0.786 Fib has rejected the price 2 times (including Powell's rejection on the 1D MA200), the 0.5 Fib has supported 2 times while the 0.236 once. Additionally, the 1D CCI is approaching the first buy level. But perhaps the most important development of all is the formation of an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern (IH&S) where today's low is the Right Shoulder and is exactly symmetrical as the Left Shoulder. IH&S patterns are technically bullish reversal structures and typically form the bottom of downtrends. The trading levels during the current days may be the last chance and a unique opportunity to buy before a strong Q3/Q4 rally to new All Time Highs. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by TradingShot
7
S&P500 on a strong 1D RSI reboundThe S&P500 index is on a strong green candle today on the 1D time-frame, following a bounce yesterday on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. As the pull-back since the March 29 High completed a 50% retrace, and the price stayed around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), there are strong probabilities to see this green candle evolve into a strong rebound past the 4637 Resistance (1). The reason is the RSI, which is also rebounding just above its Higher Lows trend-line running from January 25. As you see this was (almost) the 4th perfect contact on the trend-line. The short-term Resistance is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), with the medium-term target being 4750 (Resistance 2). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by TradingShot
2