S&P500 Buy SignalPattern: Bullish Megaphone on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price just rebounded right above the Megaphone's Higher Lows trend-line. The RSI did the same on its own Support, while the MACD is close to forming a Bullish Cross.
Target: 3840 short-term (right above the 4H MA50 as on the Feb 24/ March 01 rebounds) and 4,040 long-term (the 1.382 Fibonacci extension).
**Important Note** The 4H Death Cross is theoretically a Bearish Signal but last time was formed right on the bottom:
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Standardandpoors
RSI bullish divergencePattern: Fibonacci Channel on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price made a bottoming Lower Lows sequence similar to that of January 29.
Target: 4020 - 4050 (the zone around the 1.382 Fibonacci extension).
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S&P500 A buy Signal from the RSI and MACDPattern: Fibonacci Channel on 4H.
Signal: Buy as every time the MACD made a Bullish Cross, while the RSI had already hit its 4 month Support Zone, the index rose and made a new High. Last confirmation will be to close one session above the 4H MA50, which has previously been a mid-term Resistance within that Channel prior to a new High.
Target: 4000 (just below the 1.382 Fibonacci extension which has been an accurate metric of the next Higher High since December).
Most recent S&P500 signal:
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SPX to $6000?SPX broke over key level and established a new ATH after breaking out of a three years long widening wedge with a measured move to $6000.
Will it go to $6000? It does look possible. Take a look at crypto and you can see how extremely bullish the situation is with historically long green monthly candles. The amount of fresh liquidity from the FED is unstoppable and will fuel the rise of all securities. So much certain is the FED policy of sustained growth in stocks that traders took an astronomical amount of option calls never seen before in history. Which begs the question if the FED's job is just to hand over free money to stock and option holders.
Answer in my opinion is a NO. The market always does opposite to what majority thinks. Allowing another black swan event will not shake the economy as it is already shaken and the FEDs will step in again to prop it up like in March. You might think that the FEDs are personally invested in stocks and will not allow them to fall. There is an easy remedy to this, puts are conveniently cheap now and FEDs insiders can take them to hedge protect their positions or even make a lot of money since they know when the market will drop (when they turn off M1 money supply, like the test run they did on January 26th) and how deep it will go.
Now on the technical side, SPX price action dropped out of the 4 months long rising wedge and reached it's first support from where it bounced to new ATH retesting the rising wedge again for the second time. This pattern of twice retesting a rising wedge is appearing in a lot of charts lately and I will go out on limb to say that the SPX will repeat the pattern and drop. Below is an example of the pattern.
Now the possibility of the stock rally continuing is very real, fiscal retardation and the misappropriation of wealth by the very few can overcome any logic. We will react accordingly.
S&P500 Buy conditionsPattern: Channel Up into a Bullish Megaphone.
Signal: Buy either after a pull-back within the 0.382-0.618 Fibonacci is completed (because the 4H MACD is close to forming a Bearish Cross) or if the 3870 Resistance breaks first.
Target: 3940 (top of the pattern).
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S&P500 Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price broke again below the 4H MA50, which has been a buy signal since November 19. Also the RSI is near its 3 month Support Zone. Potential bottom on the 4H MA200, so use two buy positions.
Target: 3910 (the 1.618 Fibonacci extension assuming 3795 was the bottom. If the bottom is closer to the 4H MA200, the Fib extension will be around 3935).
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S&P500 aims at 3800Pattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy (a) if the MACD makes a Bullish Cross (every prior 1D Bullish Cross has delivered an extreme rise), or (b) if the RSI approaches its Higher Lows trend-line.
Target: (a) 3880, (b) 3800
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S&P500 preparing an end of the year rally to 3780SPX continues to trade within the Channel Up that I previously spotted and right now the keys are a certain Fibonacci sequence as well as the MACD formation on the 4H time-frame.
As you see the MACD is printing a similar formation with November 23 - 26. That was when S&P500 made its aggressive Bullish Leg from 3545 to 3655. It made its top on the -0.1 Fibonacci extension then pulled back to the 0.382 Fib retracement and took some time to price a Higher High on the -0.618 Fib extension.
If the same pattern is repeated, then the price could pull back seeking support within the 4H MA50 and 0.382 Fib and then rise to the -0.618 extension which is around 3790. That would set up S&P on a nice end-of-the-year rally.
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S&P500 Targeting 3720 short-termPattern: Rising Wedge within Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price found support on the 4H MA50, which has been holding since November 23. If the Rising Wedge breaks, buy near the Higher Low of the Channel Up.
Target: 3720 (just below the -0.382 Fibonacci extension like every previous Higher High).
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S&P500 Trading PlanPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: (A) Buy either on the Channel's median or on the Higher Low trend-line or if the 3675 Resistace breaks first. (B) Sell below the 3545.
Target: (A) 3670 (just below the Resistance). If 3675 breaks target 3710 (0.5 Fibonacci extension). (B) The 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
Previous S&P500 trade:
Concerning HARAMI candle - potential >6% decline before electionNOT ADVICE. DYOR.
3 Charts with last two examples
Construction: 1st Rule = Range of 2 Fractal LO with no Fractal HI in Between except a Rising Window 2nd Rule = Range of any 2 Fractal HI. What can we learn. Observe 2 Fractal HI thereafter & any Bearish Candlestick signal or drop <0 in Histogram.
S&P500 First 4H Golden Cross since April !** The Golden Cross **
S&P just finished a very bullish week and on the 4H chart it is about to form a Golden Cross (MA50 crossing above the MA200). That will be the first time to see a 4H Golden Cross since April 15. That alone is a very bullish sign but it's not the only one we should consider.
** Symmetry on Inverse H&S and Fibonacci levels **
The main pattern was an Inverse Head and Shoulders, from which the price seems to be detaching from as S&P is recovering from September's fall. In fact so far the recovery seems to be symmetrical as the Highs and Lows of the September downtrend, seem to be filled quite accurately on the current uptrend. The Fibonacci retracement levels appear to be quite aligned.
The first Lower High of the downtrend (September 04) was at 3490. If that level is rejected (or at least leave a margin up to the 0.786 Fib), then it is possible to see a pull-back to the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as the Golden Cross is formed, in a similar way it did during the Death Cross (September 15). On any other occasion, it should be a straight rise to the All Time High.
Which of the two do you think it is going to be? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
Most recent signal on S&P:
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What can we learn from 1982 about this 4 Wk range1st Rule = All Signal& MACD lines >0 2nd Rule = 4 Wks Histogram >0 but sliding 3rd Rule = when range of 1st Rule is < high of previous Wks (white verticals). Best match 1982 because high of previous weeks was ATH and dive cut through previous ATH exactly like today in 2020. NOT ADVICE. DYOR.
S&P500 Rebound on the 4H MA50Pattern: 4H MA50 rebound.
Signal: Buy as last time the 4H MA50 was tested and held as Support, a 2 month rally started. RSI and MACD are similar to that fractal of early July.
Target: 3480 (the -0.5 Fib extension).
Most recent S&P signal:
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S&P500 Buy Signal (long-term)Pattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price reached the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from its previous bottom.
Target: 3590 medium-term (Resistance) and for long-term traders 3900 (+21.90% rise from this bottom).
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S&P500 Does the 'Megaphone of Death' compare to that of 1990s?Last week I looked into S&P's monthly chart for clues on the long-term trend (see chart below). Most indicators point towards a new Bull Phase despite the general bearish sentiment in the market this week.
** The 'Megaphone of Death' **
I went a time-frame lower into 1W and found something I wanted to share with you. S&P500 recovered slowly after the 1987 Black Monday crash and before the aggressive Bull Phase of the late 1990s, it had a turbulent period within a Megaphone pattern in the early 1990s. That volatile period resembles the price action since early 2018, which has formed the pattern I previously called 'Megaphone of Death'. The past two plus years have also marked a turbulent period for the markets (after an uninterrupted growth phase of 10 years since the subprime crisis) as the U.S. - China trade war and the COVID pandemic issued Lower Low corrections from the Higher Highs (thus creating the Megaphone).
** Will history repeat itself? **
As you see both Megaphones are fairly similar, their Highs and Lows match. Currently we are on the (g) leg. If history is repeated, the correction of these past few weeks should be over soon and the following quarters should see Higher Highs and Higher Lows.
What do you think? Are you a buyer or a seller on this one? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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S&P to GDP shows the Bull Market is far from overThis is a simple study where I use the SPX to GDP ratio on the log scale in an attempt to determine how far (on the long-term) the current post-COVID sell-off rally can go.
As you see the ratio is within a Channel Up since 1971 with clear Higher Highs and Higher Lows. I used the Fibonacci Channel to identify the pressure points and as you see the 0.382 - 0.618 zone is of high volatility, monopolizing the price action most of the time.
The chart shows that we shouldn't expect a (long-term) bear cycle before the price either hits the Higher High trend-line or roughly completes a 410% rise.
Do you agree? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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