S&P500: Testing the Support. Action plan.S&P is trading within a Channel Up on the 4H chart (RSI = 43.121, MACD = 1.310, ADX = 35.999) and is right now testing not only the 3,200 Support but also the Higher Low trend-line of the Channel Up.
This is a bullish signal which we are taking and will close within 3,275 - 3,292, which is practically the Resistance Zone. If however the 3,200 Support breaks, we will switch to selling towards the 3,115 Support.
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Standardandpoors
SPX is now in a very good place.NOT ADVICE. DYOR.
Mark all points where signal line crosses from 0< to >0 (orange bar)
Then edit as follows. Pick points where Histogram (green bars) prior to crossover follows same movements + & - as BB%B (range = white box).
Then mark first point where histogram and BB%B go in opposite directions (white bar) following crossover (range = yellow box)
S&P500: Ascending Triangle on 4H.S&P500 made a (near) Double Top on the 4H chart marginally breaking the 3,240 Resistance but failing back below it quickly and is now consolidating (RSI = 58.904, MACD = 10.230, ADX = 31.641). We may have an Ascending Triangle in the making, which even though a break above 3,242 is possible (look at MACD), there are more bias to the downside, namely the 4H MA50 and MA200. The Support of the Ascending Triangle is at 3,115, which would make a perfect Higher Low on the (green) dominant trend-line.
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S&P500 Sell SignalPattern: Ascending Triangle
Signal: Bearish as the price got rejected on the monthly Resistance and is printing a bearish MACD formation.
Target: 3090 (contact with the Higher Lows trend-line 1).
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S&P500: Selling towards the Higher Low trend-line.S&P is trading within two formations a Rising Wedge (green lines) clashing on the Lower Highs of a Triangle (red lines) since the June 8th market high. The 4H chart is turning bearish (RSI = 42.335, MACD = 11.360, ADX = 30.843) and that is due to the peak formation on the MACD. As you see on the chart this pattern has been formed three time before since early May and that always delivered a decline on the Dominant Higher Low trend-line (dashed line). We expect a similar decline on that line and once the MACD trends higher again, a rebound.
Former trading signal:
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S&P Trading planPattern: Channel Up within a Bullish Megaphone.
Signal: (A) Bearish as long as the price is within Channel Up towards the 4H MA50. (B) Bullish if the Channel Up bounces near the 4H MA50. (C) Bullish if the Higher High trend-line of the Channel Up breaks upwards. (D) Bearish if the Higher Low trend-line of the Channel Up breaks downwards.
Target: (A) 3050, (B) 3140, (C) 3190, (D) 2930.
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S&P Trading PlanPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Bullish (A) as long as the (dashed) Higher Low trend-line holds, Bearish (B) if the (straight) Higher Low trend-line breaks. The orange Triangle is a neutral zone.
Target: (A) 2970 (just below the Resistance), (B) 2760 (just above the Support Zone).
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The S&P MARCH MADNESS in recessions & why May breaks the party!You thought that only the NCAA is entitled to a "March Madness"? Guess again. This chart shows that during recessions (the 2000 and 2008 Bubbles in particular), the S&P index makes a counter-trend rally in March that lasts for 2 months and sees an end in May.
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As you see during the 2000 Dotcom Bubble, the price started to decline, broke the MA50 on the monthly (1M) chart on March 2001 and started a counter-trend rally. In May 2001, the rally topped near the 1M MA20 and then a new more aggressive collapse started.
During the 2008 subprime mortgage Bubble, the price also started to decline, broke the MA50 on the monthly (1M) chart on March 2008 and started a counter-trend rally. In May 2008, the rally topped near the 1M MA20 and then a new more aggressive collapse started.
Right now (during the COVID-19 crisis), the index crossed the 1M MA50 on March (2020) and has been (counter?) rallying since. We are in May (which has been the turning point during the past 2 recessions) and already the volatility is high.
As you see, the MACD has been also printing a similar "topping" pattern to the previous 2 recessions.
If we are indeed on a major correction/ recession, will May mark the end of the March rally? And if so, will it make a -50%/-57% decline (1700 - 1500 respectively)? I am very curious to read your opinion on this, please share your views and charts!
P.S. As with my previous recession ideas on S&P and DOW, the idea here is not to spread fear and start calling for mega shorts but to educate and point out the obvious pattern similarities. Have a look on my previous similar work:
S&P500 Trading planPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: (A) Bullish as long as the Higher Low trendline holds (B) Bearish if the 1D MA50 breaks (ideally when the MACD makes a bearish cross too).
Target: (A) 2990 (contact with the 1D MA200) and (B) 2470 (the nearest Support).
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Most recent S&P signal:
S&P500: Sell opportunity on the 1D MA50 rejection.On our last trading set-up we mentioned the potential that the Channel Down could be wider and since the 4H MA50 broke, the pattern would fill in a Lower High near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement:
Right now we use the 1D chart (RSI = 52.588, MACD = -25.640, ADX = 24.177) and see that the recent stochastic run is being exhausted (STOCH = 83.359, STOCHRSI = 72.755). The reason is the 1D MA50 which is adding high selling pressure on the Lower High trend line of the Channel Down.
We are therefore now turning into medium term selling with our Targets being the Supports: 2,450 and 2,200 respectively.
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S&P500: Sell opportunity on the 0.5 Fib rejection.The index is having a week long rally since the 2,180 low fueled by the Fed stimulus package. So far the rise has stopped on the 0.382 Fibonacci (measured from the All Time Highs) and is pulling back.
For the moment this is still within the 4H Channel Up of this week (RSI = 56.474, MACD = 39.010, ADX = 40.896) but if it breaks it should target the 4h MA50 at 2,410 and even make a full retracement to 2,200.
The confirmation to take this sell will by the bearish cross on the MACD. See also how similar this is with the March 5th cross and in fact the two sequences are similar even on the Fibonacci scale. We have separated them into Phase 1 and Phase 2, both of which retraced to their 0.500 Fibonacci and got rejected.
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S&P500: Sell opportunity within a Channel Down.The index is trading within a Channel Down on the 4H chart (RSI = 47.015, MACD = -76.800, ADX = 46.728). The neutral technical action suggests that we are near a Lower High and that is a short term sell opportunity. So far there have been three bearish legs towards a Lower Low (-12.80%, - 11.15% and -13.20% in succession). Based on that our Target Zone is 2,130 - 2,080.
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S&P on a bearish short term outlook.S&P has crossed below the long term channel up for the first time since it started in October.
Levels to watch:
- The Resistance is at 3340 while the Support (short term) at 3235.
- The price not only crossed the ascending support of the channel up but also the MA200 on the 4H chart. In fact it crossed it twice in 3 days, which is something we haven't seen for a long time.
- The MA50 (4H chart) has rejected yesterday's bullish attempt and may turn into a resistance.
Projection:
- This is a mix of the strongest bearish outlook since last October. The MA50 (as a resistance) and the MA200 (as a support) are converging dangerously and may form the first Death Cross since October. With the coronavirus threat growing, if the 3235 short term support breaks, we expect a strong sell-off towards the 3070 long term support. Only a break above 3340 restores the bullish sentiment back to the market, as so far every rise is getting sold.
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SPX: Medium term long to a Higher High.The index is trading within a 1W Channel Up (RSI = 57.360, MACD = 38.130, Highs/Lows = 5.5037) since late February. Since the May Higher High, the pattern has been respecting the Higher High/ Higher Low marks providing clear buy/ sell signals.
The price just broke above the 1D MA50 which has been the Resistance for a whole month (August) since the 2,780 Higher Low. With this strong break-out, the index should now technically test the 3,030 1W Resistance and then move on to a new Higher High within 3,065 - 3,085. We remain long on SPX.
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S&P: Long term Buy opportunity.The index has just made a Higher Low within the 1W Channel Up (RSI = 47.048, MACD = 40.350) and technically appears to be ready to rise again. Since March the 2,728 level has provided Support every time the 1D MA200 was crossed (marginally) so consider this 1W Support the limit. The Higher High sequence is projected to be completed around 3,080, which is our current TP.
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"Top and Bottom Analysis" ES-MINI SP500 by ThinkingAntsOk4H CHART EXPLANATION:
Main Items we Observe on the Chart:
-Price broke out the bearish channel, starting a bullish movement.
-Currently, the price is inside a corrective structure and is trying to break out with low volume.
-The las support of the price is the middle trendline of the weekly ascending channel.
Based on this if the price breaks out below 2834.0 with close candlesticks we expect a continuation of the bearish movement towards 2730.00 paying attention to the middle support zone at 2793.00
MULTI TIMEFRAME VISION:
-Weekly :
-Daily:
What happens when SPX tests its All Time Highs?With SPX approaching its All Time Highs (ATH), having risen non-stop on the 1M chart since the December low, we try to answer this question: How SPX behaves near its All Time Highs?
In this attempt, we thought it would be useful to back-test two long term periods, which share remarkable similarities: the 1966 - 1990 period with the 1998 - 2019 (current).
Initially and for almost a decade each, both periods share two major crisis events: For 1966 - 1990 the 68 - 70 and 72 - 74 bear markets, for 1998 - 2019 the 00 - 02 and 07 - 09 bear markets. What followed this period of turbulence was a strong bull market. The first was the one that actually led to the 2000 - 2002 crisis (Dot com bubble). The second one is still ongoing and based on the similarities of the two periods SPX should keep rising to new highs.
Will we have a pull back upon the ATH test? Well let's look at what happened during the last times SPX tested its ATH. In the modern era (1998 - 2019), SPX pulled back 2 out of the 3 times, but stayed on its strong bull channel since the bottom of the Housing Bubble. During the previous era (1966 - 1990), it pulled back 2 out of 4 times.
Since however the last ATH test was so recent, it is unlikely to make another pull back so soon, unless it follows the 2015 - 2016 example.
So in conclusion, SPX has much more chances breaking its current ATH (2,940) with in fact every bearish monthly candle being a buy opportunity.
More related material:
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