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Standardandpoors

The S&P MARCH MADNESS in recessions & why May breaks the party!You thought that only the NCAA is entitled to a "March Madness"? Guess again. This chart shows that during recessions (the 2000 and 2008 Bubbles in particular), the S&P index makes a counter-trend rally in March that lasts for 2 months and sees an end in May. ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** As you see during the 2000 Dotcom Bubble, the price started to decline, broke the MA50 on the monthly (1M) chart on March 2001 and started a counter-trend rally. In May 2001, the rally topped near the 1M MA20 and then a new more aggressive collapse started. During the 2008 subprime mortgage Bubble, the price also started to decline, broke the MA50 on the monthly (1M) chart on March 2008 and started a counter-trend rally. In May 2008, the rally topped near the 1M MA20 and then a new more aggressive collapse started. Right now (during the COVID-19 crisis), the index crossed the 1M MA50 on March (2020) and has been (counter?) rallying since. We are in May (which has been the turning point during the past 2 recessions) and already the volatility is high. As you see, the MACD has been also printing a similar "topping" pattern to the previous 2 recessions. If we are indeed on a major correction/ recession, will May mark the end of the March rally? And if so, will it make a -50%/-57% decline (1700 - 1500 respectively)? I am very curious to read your opinion on this, please share your views and charts! P.S. As with my previous recession ideas on S&P and DOW, the idea here is not to spread fear and start calling for mega shorts but to educate and point out the obvious pattern similarities. Have a look on my previous similar work:
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
38
S&P500: Sell opportunity on the 1D MA50 rejection.On our last trading set-up we mentioned the potential that the Channel Down could be wider and since the 4H MA50 broke, the pattern would fill in a Lower High near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement: Right now we use the 1D chart (RSI = 52.588, MACD = -25.640, ADX = 24.177) and see that the recent stochastic run is being exhausted (STOCH = 83.359, STOCHRSI = 72.755). The reason is the 1D MA50 which is adding high selling pressure on the Lower High trend line of the Channel Down. We are therefore now turning into medium term selling with our Targets being the Supports: 2,450 and 2,200 respectively. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
TVC:SPXShort
by InvestingScope
1
S&P500: Sell opportunity on the 0.5 Fib rejection.The index is having a week long rally since the 2,180 low fueled by the Fed stimulus package. So far the rise has stopped on the 0.382 Fibonacci (measured from the All Time Highs) and is pulling back. For the moment this is still within the 4H Channel Up of this week (RSI = 56.474, MACD = 39.010, ADX = 40.896) but if it breaks it should target the 4h MA50 at 2,410 and even make a full retracement to 2,200. The confirmation to take this sell will by the bearish cross on the MACD. See also how similar this is with the March 5th cross and in fact the two sequences are similar even on the Fibonacci scale. We have separated them into Phase 1 and Phase 2, both of which retraced to their 0.500 Fibonacci and got rejected. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by InvestingScope
2
S&P500: Sell opportunity within a Channel Down.The index is trading within a Channel Down on the 4H chart (RSI = 47.015, MACD = -76.800, ADX = 46.728). The neutral technical action suggests that we are near a Lower High and that is a short term sell opportunity. So far there have been three bearish legs towards a Lower Low (-12.80%, - 11.15% and -13.20% in succession). Based on that our Target Zone is 2,130 - 2,080. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by InvestingScope
S&P on a bearish short term outlook.S&P has crossed below the long term channel up for the first time since it started in October. Levels to watch: - The Resistance is at 3340 while the Support (short term) at 3235. - The price not only crossed the ascending support of the channel up but also the MA200 on the 4H chart. In fact it crossed it twice in 3 days, which is something we haven't seen for a long time. - The MA50 (4H chart) has rejected yesterday's bullish attempt and may turn into a resistance. Projection: - This is a mix of the strongest bearish outlook since last October. The MA50 (as a resistance) and the MA200 (as a support) are converging dangerously and may form the first Death Cross since October. With the coronavirus threat growing, if the 3235 short term support breaks, we expect a strong sell-off towards the 3070 long term support. Only a break above 3340 restores the bullish sentiment back to the market, as so far every rise is getting sold. If you like this idea give us a like, follow and share your thoughts in the comments section below. Remember to stay tuned for future technical analysis , news, updates, and more from PrimeXBT!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by PrimeXBT
3
SPX: Medium term long to a Higher High.The index is trading within a 1W Channel Up (RSI = 57.360, MACD = 38.130, Highs/Lows = 5.5037) since late February. Since the May Higher High, the pattern has been respecting the Higher High/ Higher Low marks providing clear buy/ sell signals. The price just broke above the 1D MA50 which has been the Resistance for a whole month (August) since the 2,780 Higher Low. With this strong break-out, the index should now technically test the 3,030 1W Resistance and then move on to a new Higher High within 3,065 - 3,085. We remain long on SPX. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by InvestingScope
6
S&P: Long term Buy opportunity.The index has just made a Higher Low within the 1W Channel Up (RSI = 47.048, MACD = 40.350) and technically appears to be ready to rise again. Since March the 2,728 level has provided Support every time the 1D MA200 was crossed (marginally) so consider this 1W Support the limit. The Higher High sequence is projected to be completed around 3,080, which is our current TP. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by InvestingScope
1
"Top and Bottom Analysis" ES-MINI SP500 by ThinkingAntsOk4H CHART EXPLANATION: Main Items we Observe on the Chart: -Price broke out the bearish channel, starting a bullish movement. -Currently, the price is inside a corrective structure and is trying to break out with low volume. -The las support of the price is the middle trendline of the weekly ascending channel. Based on this if the price breaks out below 2834.0 with close candlesticks we expect a continuation of the bearish movement towards 2730.00 paying attention to the middle support zone at 2793.00 MULTI TIMEFRAME VISION: -Weekly : -Daily:
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by ThinkingAntsOk
What happens when SPX tests its All Time Highs?With SPX approaching its All Time Highs (ATH), having risen non-stop on the 1M chart since the December low, we try to answer this question: How SPX behaves near its All Time Highs? In this attempt, we thought it would be useful to back-test two long term periods, which share remarkable similarities: the 1966 - 1990 period with the 1998 - 2019 (current). Initially and for almost a decade each, both periods share two major crisis events: For 1966 - 1990 the 68 - 70 and 72 - 74 bear markets, for 1998 - 2019 the 00 - 02 and 07 - 09 bear markets. What followed this period of turbulence was a strong bull market. The first was the one that actually led to the 2000 - 2002 crisis (Dot com bubble). The second one is still ongoing and based on the similarities of the two periods SPX should keep rising to new highs. Will we have a pull back upon the ATH test? Well let's look at what happened during the last times SPX tested its ATH. In the modern era (1998 - 2019), SPX pulled back 2 out of the 3 times, but stayed on its strong bull channel since the bottom of the Housing Bubble. During the previous era (1966 - 1990), it pulled back 2 out of 4 times. Since however the last ATH test was so recent, it is unlikely to make another pull back so soon, unless it follows the 2015 - 2016 example. So in conclusion, SPX has much more chances breaking its current ATH (2,940) with in fact every bearish monthly candle being a buy opportunity. More related material: ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
SP:SPXLong
by InvestingScope
9
S&P: Filling the Gap to 2800.The index is extending the very bullish medium term trade on the 1D Channel Up (RSI = 66.757, MACD = 33.440, Highs/Lows = 39.4506) having completely reversed the bearish bias of the recent correction since the December bottom. The next obvious target is the December 03 Gap fill (2,814). The sequence that is expected to be followed is of a similar fashion as that of mid January's. We continue to be long on S&P, this time with TP = 2,800. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by InvestingScope
2
S&P: Pulling back but still within a bullish channel.The index hit our previous target (2,670) making a slightly higher than expected Higher High at 2,677.75. This marginally extended the upper band of the 1D Channel Up (RSI = 59.375, MACD = 16.280, Highs/Lows = 32.7451), which remains overbought on STOCH and Williams. It is natural to expect a technical pull back either to touch the median (2,640) or to pric a Higher Low (2,620 - 2,597). We will be using those two spots as long entries and target (TP) 2,690. Technically the Channel Up should make a new Higher High above 2,720. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by InvestingScope
5
S&P: Bullish but in need of a pull back.The index has capitalized considerably on December's low, creating a strong 4H Channel Up (RSI = 57.058, MACD = 20.290, B/BP = 4.4419) which peaked yesterday at 2,596.75. Considering this a Higher High, we expect the price to pull back in order to set a new Higher Low, necessary to help the index reach even higher values. Although the technical estimates place the next Higher High at 2,670, taking into consideration the volatile geopolitical environment we will be buying this pull back for a more modest TP = 2,600. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by InvestingScope
2
S&P's Dead Cat Bounce to 2575.Since the last update and comparison made on the similarities of S&P's candle sequences between the 2007 and 2018 Death Cross patterns, the index followed exactly the 2007 pattern, as it completed a nearly -15% decline and then rebounded. Based on the 2007 pattern this rebound shouldn't exceed +10% and our estimates put it around 2,575. This can be described as a "Dead Cat Bounce" and in 2007 it was what led economy into the 2008 recession. The new lows on the index should be expected in about 2 months. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
SP:SPX
by InvestingScope
3
Are we entering a new recession? Death cross on S&P.S&P500 printed this month a Death Cross (MA50/MA200) and is already -8.40% since its appearance. A similar occurrence took place in 2008 at the start of the global financial crisis. In 2008 the Death Cross resulted into a fast (around 1 month) -14.40% decline on the index and assuming that the same sequence will follow, we can expect S&P to drop below 2,400 and around 2,360 in the next 20-30 days. The similarities (another -11.80% decline that preceded) and timing between the two periods are astonishing. If the monetary governing bodies do not turn the very negative market psychology around soon by reviewing their policies, we should be looking into a new recession in 2019. If that's the case, and the full bear cycle sequence of 2008 is followed, we may see S&P losing around -55-60% of its value, making a bottom around 1,250. Of course this is just a technical projection based on recurring patterns and similar candle sequences from the historical volatility at hand. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
SP:SPXShort
by InvestingScope
24
S&P: Channel Down towards 2500.Since the price crossed the 2,603 1D Support last week, it has developed a Channel Down on 4H (RSI = 35.405, MACD = -23.590, Highs/Lows = -14.5707). According to its High/ Low sequence we can project that the next Lower Low will be completed on a -6.85% decline, i.e. 2,506.50. Use this technical suggestion with extreme caution however as the Fed Interest Decision tomorrow and the statement to follow, may largely unsettle any technical pattern. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by InvestingScope
Rates and equities rendez-vousToday may be the day we get the long-awaited bounce in rates and equity. SMI is showing signs of strength with a positively sloped trendline. ES1! appears to fight the sellers' pressure and bounces of the anticipated support at around 2627.00 forming a triple bottom. Now the first resist is visible at 2712 but the major one is expected to be located at around 2800.00. Rates are looking really oversold (overbought bonds). Probably given the oil price. Last time when rates were at these levels the water was flowing down the river, the yellow vests were non-existent and Macron had more support than Trump. Most importantly - ES futures were hitting 2900.00! Let's see where this bounce gets us. It still may be just a correction before a recession. Many things can happen. Word to close for today: CASH RULES EVERYTHING AROUND ME EXCEPT WHEN IT IS JUST A FIAT CURRENCY
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Slimsy