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Standardandpoors500

SPY gave us a solid sell. Is it still bearish?Last time we looked at SPY (April 11, see chart below), we got what we wanted, a break below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) that met our exact bearish expectation which was a -5.93% decline, absolutely symmetrical with August 18 2023: As the subsequent rebound got rejected on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line on the chart above), the question is the following: Is SPY still bearish? Technically, yes as long as it closes weekly (1W) candles below the 1D MA50. But at the same time, being supported on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line on the chart above), keeps short term neutral/ ranged thus the expectations for a bullish break-out live. But it has to close above the 1D MA50 to confirm that. As you can see, a comparison with recovery patterns following systemic Cycle corrections like the one in 2022, offers valuable conclusions. Basically, since the 2009 bottom of the U.S. Housing Crisis, the three major corrections of the current Cycle, have followed similar patterns (2011 - 2013, 2015 - 2017 and 2022 - 2024). The key common characteristic is that the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) has been the major Support. After two pull-backs that hit the 1W MA50 straight after the correction's bottom, both the 2011 - 2013 and 2015 - 2017 fractals made a smaller pull-back (green Rectangle) that hit the 1D MA100. It appears that this is where the index is currently at. If this correlation continues to hold and the index won't dive further to the 1W MA50, it might hit the 2.0 Fibonacci extension as its first Target, which is what the other two fractals aimed at. That is at 555.00. Notice also the similarities between the 1W RSI patterns. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
AMEX:SPY
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 Quick buy trade.The S&P500 is approaching the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) to test it as a Resistance for the first time after the April 15 bearish break-out. It has already broken above the Bearish Megaphone, the 4H RSI has formed a Channel Up similar to the price action's and so far this sequence of events is fairly identical to the previous correction of August 2023. That sequence almost touched the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level before pulling back again, so we have ourselves a solid short-term bullish target. In fact we are placing ours a little lower at 5150, which represents a +4.70% rise from the bottom as that is not only the % rise that the August 2023 rebound returned but will also make contact with the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 Dead-cat-bounce before one last bottom?Our last call on the S&P500 (SPX) couldn't have gone better as the Bearish Megaphone pattern we expected (April 05, see chart below) was eventually materialized and easily hit on Tuesday our 5050 Target: At the moment the index is below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been the main Support since November 03 2023 and is headed towards the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) above which the last two main Bearish Legs of the 19-month Channel Up made their first Dead-cat-bounce (March 02 and August 18 2023). As long as this dead-cat-bounce is contained below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, we see more likely one last corrective wave towards Support 1 and close to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). As long as at the time the 1D RSI is on its Support Zone, we will buy for the long-term and target the top of the 19-month Channel Up at 5400. If the price breaks above the 0.786, we will have a pattern invalidation and buy the break-out instead, targeting again 5400. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TradingShot
1
SPY All eyes on the 1D MA50. Will it hold?SPY broke below the (blue) Channel Up and the only Support standing now is the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This level has been holding since the November 03 2023 break-out. If it holds, a new pattern will emerge but the medium-term bullish trend will stay intact. If the 1D MA50 breaks though, we expect a bearish extension similar to August 15 2023, February 24 2023 and December 16 2022. As you can see those 1D MA50 bearish break-outs coincided with the 1D CCI breaking below the -100.00 oversold barrier. This is the level that the CCI is at today. As a result, once the 1D MA50 breaks, we expect further decline towards the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). The shortest decline among the pull-backs mentioned above has been -5.93%. This gives us a rough estimate of 495.00. That would be the most optimal buy entry for the long-term. Our Target by the end of May will be 524.50. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
AMEX:SPY
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 Bull Cycle intact. 100 year long Blueprint revealed!A lot of talk is being done lately on whether the S&P500 index (SPX) has maxed now that it made new All Time Highs (ATH) or it is in need of a strong correction etc. Those who have been following us for long here, know that in times like this, we like to keep a long-term perspective and give you the picture unfiltered with the facts only. Along those lines, we present you the S&P's Cycle Analysis on a century wide scale. As you can see, since the Great Depression, the stock market started to creat a pattern with clear systemic behaviors. Each time there are fundamentals involved that merely serve as 'reasons' to fill out and complete this pattern. Following the 1932 Great Depression bottom, the 1st Secular Bull Cycle begun, that lasted for 28.5 years (343 months) rising by +1888%. Then the Secular Bear Cycle started in the form of a Megaphone pattern. Its 1st Low was formed below the 1M MA100 (green trend-line) and the 2nd Low (the Cycle's bottom) was formed below the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line). The 2nd Secular Bull Cycle lasted for almost 26 years (311 months) and saw +2361% growth. As per our blueprint, the Secular Bear Cycle was initiated once the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) broke. Again the 1st Low was formed below the 1M MA100 and the 2nd Low below the 1M MA200. With regards to the current Cycle, which is what most are interested at naturally, notice how the 1M MA50 has been supporting since late 2011. It emphatically held both on the September 2022 Low (Inflation crisis bottom) and the March 2020 Low (COVID crash bottom). This indicates again that as long as it supports, the Secular Bull Cycle will be extended. Based on the previous Cycle-to-Cycle parameters the model suggests that the current Cycle should be a little than 23 years long (279 months, i.e. 32 month shorter than the previous) and rise by +2834% (+473% higher than the previous). This may all be speculation theoretically but trends that keep repeating themselves over the decades are not. Technically those filter out all news, fundamentals, geopolitical, macroeconomical noise and give rise to a pure behavioral perspective, the essence of traditional Economics. Are you willing to bet against this blueprint? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
8
S&P500 hit the 4H MA200 after 5 months!The S&P500 index (SPX) came extremely close to hitting the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) yesterday for the first time in 5 months (since November 02 2023)! As you realize, this is a key Support for the uptrend and the Channel Up in particular, which has been the dominant pattern these months to drive the index to High after High. The fact that the price is rebounding upon this 4H MA200 test, keeps the trend bullish. If it breaks above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) again, we will continue buying and target 5350, which will be a little less than a +4.35% rise from yesterday's bottom. As you can see on the chart, rallies to Higher Highs between +4.35% and +5.00% have been the standard within this pattern. If on the other hand, the index closes a 4H candle below the 4H MA200, we will turn bearish on the break-out, first targeting the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) and if also broken, extend to 5050 (Support 1). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TradingShot
BITCOIN immediate target is 78k based on this SPX fractal.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is currently repeating on its 4H time-frame a fractal of S&P500 (SPX) on its 1W time-frame. As BTC is pulling back towards the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and a Bullish Cross is about to be formed, the symmetric development on the S&P500 fractal indicates that this Bullish Cross should be treated as a Buy Signal. On S&P500 it started the aggressive rally that the market is currently still on. As you can see, both fractals started with a Bearish Megaphone after their respective tops, hit and held their MA200 (orange trend-line), while a MA50/ MA100 Bearish Cross marked the Bottom. The Channel Up that emerged led the recovery. From an RSI perspective a similar Channel Up took both to the overbought territory after an oversold Double Bottom, which was an additional Buy Signal. As a result, for BTC we are now on the 0.786 rejection phase and after this pull-back is completed, the S&P500 fractal suggests that the target should be just shy off the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. We therefore have $78000 as our immediate Target. Do you think it can be achieved on such a short period of time? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
3
S&P500 History may not repeat itself, but it does often rhyme.In the infamous words of Mark Twain, we are analyzing today the S&P500 index (SPX) on the long-term 1W time-frame. This is a cyclical perspective obviously, attempting to find similarities between past and present price action, in anticipation of projecting the trend in the near future. As you can see, the index is replicating quite closely the 1W price action from June 2015 to (so far) March 2017. The 1W RSI Bullish Divergence led to a Bear Cycle bottom on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), then Rally 1 and first consolidation on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) before the Bull Flag (dotted Channel Down) that led to Rally 2. Based on the overbought 1W RSI, it appears that the index may entering a short-term pull-back period. If it continues to follow that pattern this closely, don't expect that pull-back to be considerably greater than -3.15%. Technically if the 1W RSI breaks below its MA (yellow trend-line), it will be time to start buying again for Rally 3. By early 2025, it should be closer to the 3.0 Fibonacci extension, which gives us a rough target for our buying at 6500. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 Testing the 4H MA50. Rejection or bullish breakout again?The S&P500 (SPX) broke on Friday below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which isn't yet a bearish confirmation as it has done so numerous time within December's Channel Up pattern. What would be a sell signal though, is getting rejected and fail to close a 4H candle above the 4H MA50 again. We will then look for the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and target Support 1 at 5050, where the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level along with the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) will provide the first Zone of Support for the short-term. If however the index does close a 4H candle above the 4H MA50, then the Channel Up pattern should continue and in that case we will buy and target 5185 (Resistance). Note though that the 4H RSI is trading within a Channel Down since the February 23 High, almost 1 month, which is a major Bearish Divergence against the price's Channel Up. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 Tight Channel Up calls for buying unless it breaks.S&P500 is trading inside a narrow Channel Up pattern. As long as the price stays inside, we remain bullish on the index. The ralies inside it have been quite symmetric as well. The MA50 (1d) has been supporting this strong bullish trend since November 03 2023. Trading Plan: 1. Buy as long as the price remains inside the Channel Up. 2. Sell if it breaks below it (Support 1 in play). Targets: 1. 5260 (+ 4.34% symmetric bullish leg). 2. 4920 (Support 2). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) is inside a Triangle pattern. Either direction it breaks to, it will be an early trend signal, so keep an eye. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TradingBrokersView
1
S&P500 Is it timed for a correction until the Fed Decision?The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a long-term Channel Up since the October 13 2022 market bottom and since last Friday, the price has been griding on its top (Higher Highs trend-line). The longer it fails to convincingly break and close a full week above it, the more likely it is to deliver a technical pull-back. On that technical setting, the 1D RSI has been on a lengthy Bearish Divergence (Lower Highs) since December 19 2023, which is similar to the one that led to the July 27 2023 Channel Up Higher High and the subsequent -10.96% correction. In fact the 1D RSI has printed a peak pattern (red circle) similar to all previous 3 Higher Highs that gave corrections ranging from -9.17% to -10.96%. July 27 2023 initially delivered a -5.84% pull-back before extending to -10.96%. From a fundamental perspective though, if the market indeed gets rejected here and starts pulling back, it would seem ideally timed for a bottom near the next Fed Rate Decision meeting on March 20 2024, where the policymakers may give clearer hints for a June cut. The correction's targets can only be determined technically though, so a potential -5.84% pull-back takes us marginally below Support 1 at 4845, right on the 0.382 Fibonacci Channel retracement level. If the market overreacts to the Fed, then a potential extension gives a rough 2nd Target at 4755, within Fib 0.5 and 0.618, which will approach the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). On the current phase of the Bull Cycle we are at though, it is very doubtful to see in the near future stronger corrections. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TradingShot
2
S&P500 This Bull Cycle is far from over.On this analysis we view the S&P500 (SPX) from the longer term perspective of the 1M time-frame in order to answer the question of why it hasn't pulled-back since the October 2023 Low. The answer can be given by observing the index from a cyclical point of view. First, with the exception of the March 2020 COVID flash crash and more recently October 2022, the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), was intact since October 2011. Even during those two tests, it never closed a monthly (1M) candle below it. This makes it the current long-term Support and every pull-back towards it is a buy opportunity on the lowest possible risk. The catalyst on this long-term analysis is the Channel Down that started on the 1M RSI since the September 2015 Low. Every decline near its bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) is a buy opportunity, while near its top (Lower Highs trend-line) is a sell. Right now the Cycle (5th since the bottom of the 2008-2009 Housing Crisis) is at the point after its 1st mid-cycle correction (blue circle) where the 1M RSI typically bounces off its MA (yellow) trend-line. This hasn't just happened within the RSI's Channel Down but is also a characteristic of all Cycles since the bottom of the 2008-2009 Housing Crisis. At the same time, the 1M MACD rises on a Bullish Cross. As a result, even though a short-term pull-back can be technically justified, the current Bull Cycle is far from over as the 1M RSI hasn't approached the Channel's top. Technically that should be towards the fall of 2024 followed by a volatile 2025. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
4
S&P500 Is a -3% pull-back probable here?The S&P500 index (SPX) is having another bullish week with the current green 1W candle being the strongest since the first week of the year. Nonetheless with the 1W RSI overbought at 75.00 and the price very close to the Higher Highs trend-line that started on the late November 2022 High, a short-term pull-back seems probable at the moment. The long-term price action since 2016 shows that every time this 1W RSI overbought pattern emerges, and the index is trading near (or at) the Higher Highs trend-line, it makes a correction between -3.10% and -4.50%. From the current levels, the minimum of -3.10% pull-back would deliver prices around 4950 while a -4.50% one, prices around 4865. Long-term traders can look to continue buying such dips as long as the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is supporting. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXShort
by TradingShot
2
S&P500 Short-term pull-back is very likely now.The S&P500 has hit (even surpassed on the liner scale) the top of the 16-month Channel Up pattern with the 1D RSI on a Bearish Divergence (price on Higher Highs while the RSI on Lower Highs). If the price closes a 1D candle below the 4H MA100 (red trend-line), which is dangerously close to, it will be the first such bearish signal since August 02 2023 and the previous Higher High of the Channel Up. Of course the final confirmation comes if the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) breaks but that is currently on Support 1 and our first Target at 4845. So if the 1D MA50 breaks, we will take a new short and extend selling with a 4755 Target, which represents a -5.84% decline from the current top, similar to the August 18 2023 pull-back. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 +10year cheatsheet tells you what to do next!On this analysis we look into the S&P500 index (SPX) from a very long-term angle, the 1W time-frame going back more than 13 years, since November 2010. That was when the first Megaphone pattern emerged since the 2009 market bottom of the U.S. Housing (sub-prime) crisis that after testing the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) it found Support and transitioned into a Channel Up. This is a similar pattern that we are at since the previous 2021 market All Time High (ATH) that led to the 2022 Inflation Bear Cycle. In fact since 2009 there have been (including 2022) 4 such cyclical patterns in total and another common characteristic has been that the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) has been the Support throughout the uptrend. In our recent pattern, that was tested in October 2023, held, and gave rise to the enormous November - February rally. That turned the 1W RSI overbought above 70.00 for the first time since July 24 2023, which caused the 3-month pull-back. In fact, when the 1W RSI broke that high into overbought territory during the previous 3 Cycles, SPX at best consolidated if not pull-back for 4-6 weeks. In any case, this +10 year 'Cheatsheet' is telling you that as long as the 1W MA50 holds (which is considerably lower), the next 4 weeks at least are a buy opportunity, at least once the index hits the 1D MA50 again. And of course the upside, in a year of expected rate cuts and U.S. Presidential elections, is significant not just purely from a technical point of view. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
3
VIX showing that tension is expected soon in the stock markets.When we looked at the Volatility Index (VIX) on our November 07 2023 analysis (see chart below) we compared it with the S&P500 index (SPX) : The S&P500 has reached the top of its Channel Up, while the VIX bottomed and is consolidating on a price action that is very similar to the July 27 2023 Low, which was the former Higher High of the S&P500 Channel Up. Today we plot both VIX and the S&P500 on the same chart and not side by side. As you can see VIX's 1D RSI has bottomed and is rising within a Bullish Megaphone, indicating that the price has already bottomed, which is a Lower Low on the Channel Down pattern it has been trading within since the September 28 2022 High (which has also been the start of the 2023 recovery year for the stock markets). The SPX is illustrated by the thin black trend-line and being negatively correlated in nature, when VIX declined within this Channel, the stocks rose and vice versa. Since October 23 2023, VIX started to decline again and that sparked the stock rise which is holding up to this day. VIX's bottom and rise though above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) within the Bullish Megaphone we just mentioned above, is an indication that the SPX has topped, similar to the February 02 2023 and July 27 2023 Highs, which where Lows for VIX's Channel Down. The chart clearly shows that VIX has just started its own (dashed) Bullish Megaphone (has always done so a little after the RSI Bullish Megaphone) and that was been the start of the S&P500 decline during the Higher Highs we mentioned. As a result, we expect VIX's volatility to apply high pressure on the stock market in the next 4-6 weeks, which should technically bottom and turn into a buy opportunity again only after VIX closes a 1D candle below both the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as it did on November 02 and March 28 2023. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:VIX
by TradingShot
4
S&P500 Bearish Divergence on 1D RSI points to a correction.The S&P500 index (SPX) has reached the top of the long-term Channel Up pattern that started on the October 13 2022 market bottom. This development is a strong sell signal on its own but it gets even stronger as the 1D RSI has been within a Channel Down since December 19, while the price was rising within a Channel Up, which is a technical Bearish Divergence. The very same Bearish Divergence that led to the July 27 2023 Higher High and was followed by a 3-month almost -11.00% correction. The first wave of that correction was -5.84% and has been the minimum correction range in 2023, settling just above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result that minimum will be our target and its at 4700, as we may see a bullish reaction going closer to the mid-March Fed Rate Decision (in expectations of rate cuts). Technically though, we can see a longer correctional wave to -9.26% (like the Bearish Leg that bottomed on March 13 2023) that could test the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), or even almost -11.00% (like the one that bottomed on October 27 2023). Notice how each of those potential correction targets are conveniently placed around key Support or Fibonacci retracement levels. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TradingShot
2
S&P500 Buy and Sell trading plan.The S&P500 (SPX) index has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the December 07 low and is currently on the 3rd Bullish Leg towards the top (Higher Highs trend-line). The basic Support is the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) which has (nearly) held twice this month, with the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) right below being the separator between a medium-term bullish and bearish trend. We expect a maximum Leg growth of 5.56% like the one that topped on December 27, so we are buying towards 4900 or until the 4H MACD makes a Bearish Cross (standard peak/ sell signal within the Channel Up), in which case we will sell and target the Channel's bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) at 4800 (-2.80% decline like January 05), or close earlier if the 4H MA200 gets hit. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TradingShot
S&P500 Is 4800 the end of the road after 9 green weeks?The S&P500 index (SPX) is currently on its 9th straight green week (1W candle) following the October 23 (weekly terms) bottom. That was a Higher Low on the 15-month Channel Up and based on that pattern, the index is approaching its top (Higher Highs trend-line). What adds more weight to the very high levels it is trading at, is that the All Time High is just above the current price at 4820. A peak on that level would represent a +17.40% increase, exactly the % rise of the first Bullish Leg of the 15-month Channel Up that peaked on the week of November 28 2022 and then corrected by -8.06%. With the 1W RSI almost overbought (70.00) as it was on July 24, which was the peak of the previous Higher High of the Channel Up that initiated a 3-month correction of almost -11% and the 1W MACD on a post Bullish Cross level similar to the highs of August 15 2022 and November 28 2022 that kickstarted corrections, the selling pressure has now considerably stronger parameters to start. This means that, at least from a technical perspective, this is the strongest sell opportunity since late July. A minimum correction of -8.00% would deliver a test of the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and as such, our target is 4450 (slightly above it). If however the bullish trend continues for a few more weeks and pursues the maximum % rally we have seen since 2021, which has been +20.95%, then we can see an extension at around 4950, in which case we will add an additional (2nd) sell and both our bearish targets will be restructured at 4580 (-8.00%). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXShort
by TradingShot
S&P500 The rally still has one more High to give at least.The S&P500 index (SPX) pulled-back yesterday on the strongest 1D red candle since October. A natural technical reaction after weeks of rise-only price action and an overbought 1D RSI that almost hit 83.00. The long-term pattern remains a Channel Up since the October 13 2022 market bottom and as long as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is supporting, it is likely to see one final upward extension towards its top (Higher Highs trend-line). The two major Higher High sequences (bullish legs) of this Channel have been around +20.50%, extending almost as high as the 2.0 Fibonacci level. As a result we are expecting a minimum of 4930, before any larger correction takes place, unless of course the index breaks above its Channel Up, in which case we will look for a new pattern. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
S&P500: Possible top near 4900. RSI highly unsustainable.We are not saying that the S&P500 won't complete this market wide desired rally in the last two weeks of the year. Even January could be bullish. But since the price is approaching the top of the 14 month Channel Up, while the 1d RSI is highly unsustainable deep into the overbought zone at 80.00, the market is most likely positioning itself for a strong technical correction. The last time the 1d RSI was that overbought was on June 15 2023 and November 05 2021. The latter in particular looks very similar to today. Both patterns peaked at least 6 weaks after the RSI got this overbought. New All Time High most likely will be made at 4900 at the very top of the Channel Up in a typical overextension of the market to trap as many late buyers as it can. Follow, Like, Comment below!
TVC:SPX
by YahooSignals
S&P500 Bullish unless this Support level breaks.The S&P500 index (SPX) is extending the bullish leg of the 16-month Rising Wedge pattern. It doesn't have much room left before it hits the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the pattern and as long as this stays intact, it targets 4730 as an end of year target. As you can see, throughout this pattern, its shorter Rising Wedge patterns that have driven the price upwards on the bullish legs, just like the current. The previous broke to the upside and peaked on the 3.0 Fibonacci extension while the first one failed and when it broke the Support (last Higher Low), it declined to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level below the 1D MA50. As a result, if the Support (4535) fails first, short and target 4370 (0.5 Fibonacci). The 1D MACD is about to complete a Bearish into Bullish Cross pattern, which was favors the bullish scenario. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 How high can this rally go?The S&P500 index (SPX) is on a relentless 1-month rally since since the October 27 bottom, having grown already by more than +11%. Since the August 16 2022 High, the index has entered into a long-term Channel Up sequence. The last two breaks below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) have been the Higher Lows and the best medium-term buy entry. The recent (October) one in particular was the first that was on a Higher Lows 1D CCI Bullish Divergence. We can see that all rallies since August 2022 have been around the same range (+19.31% to +20.79%). As a result, we expect another minimum +19.33% (from the October bottom). Along with the (dotted) Channel Up top, which gives us a first Target at 4700, that +19.33% expectation gives a second long-term target at 4900, which would be above the 4820 (Jan 04 2022) All Time High (ATH). The latter Target will also make a perfect Higher Low at the top of the Diverging (dashed) Channel Up and hit the 1.618 Fibonacci extension (as all previous rally did), while the former (Target 1) will price a Higher High on the (dotted) Channel Up. As a result, if the index enters a consolidation for a few days within the orange ellipse pattern (as it did during April 2023 and November 2022), it will give you another opportunity to enter in case you missed the rally from its start. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot