S&P500 The weekly chart puts everything into perspectiveAlmost 2 months ago and the S&P500 (SPX) hasn't diverged from our original idea, after buying the bottom of the 6-month Channel Up:
We believe that looking into the 1W (weekly) time-frame again will help at giving a fresh outlook and technically the best illustration of the current situation. First we narrowed the Channel Up to the candle bodies and treat the wicks as pressure points only.
As you see, the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) is the key element here as it has been the Resistance since the 1W candle of August 22 2022. The price came very close to breaking it on three 1W candles: September 12 2022, January 30 2023 and last week (May 01 2023).
Our trading plan is simple. If SPX closes a candle above the 1W MA100, we will buy the break-out and target the 4327 Resistance (August 16 High). Until then, we will wait for 4020 and buy at the bottom of the 1 month Megaphone pattern, approximately near the 1D MA200. In that case the bullish target will be the 4195 Resistance.
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Standardandpoors500
S&P500 Megaphone pattern on 4H.The S&P500 (SPX) has had an excellent run following our buy call more than one month ago:
Right now we see a Megaphone pattern in formation on the 4H time-frame and with the price above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and with the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) holding since March 29, we are targeting the top (Higher Highs trend-line) at 4200.
If the price closes above the Megaphone we will buy again, targeting the top of the long-term Channel Up at 4270. Similarly we will go short if we close below the 4H MA200 and target 4040. If the price breaks below the Megaphone we will sell again, targeting the bottom of the long-term Channel Up at 3930.
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S&P500 Sell signal confirmedThe S&P500 (SPX) has had an excellent run following our buy call more than one month ago:
Yesterday though it flashed a sell confirmation as the price broke and closed below the Higher Lows trend-line of the recent Channel Up bottom. Both previous times this happened (December 06 2022 and February 17 2023, it was a major sell signal towards a new Channel Up (Higher) Low. Additionally, the 1D MACD has made a Bearish Cross.
The Support Zone 1 that is currently being tested, has on those previous fractals provided the first layer of accumulation that later broke and targeted both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
Our target is 3915, just above Support Zone 2, which was hit during both previous corrections.
Invalidation of this pattern will happen if a 1D candle closes above the Lower Highs trend-line, in which case the 4195 Resistance will be targeted.
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S&P500 Cyclical buy signal starting next monthThis analysis is basically an extension of the study we published last week, explaining how the index is starting an aggressive expansion:
Based purely on the 3W time-frame, now we have incorporated the Sine Waves to clearly display the cyclical buy/ sell pattern inside the long-term Channel Up that started at the bottom of the Housing Crisis (March 2009).
As this shows, for the past 10 years, the bottom of the Cycles is where investors should consider to start buying, while the top is where they should consider to start selling. The last sell signal was given on October 25 2021 and the next buy signal will be flashed on May 30 (2023).
With the index trading around the 3W MA50 (blue trend-line) since it rebounded off the market bottom (October 2022), this price action may imply that the market is in anticipation of the big move. This cyclical buy signal may just be the trigger it needs.
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S&P500 Don't sell before this line breaksThe S&P500 (SPX) has had an excellent run following our buy call exactly one month ago:
The confirmation for the buy was given by the 1D RSI Bullish Cross. As the price is approaching the top of the Channel Up, which is projected to be within 4230 - 4250, we start looking for signals to sell. Naturally the 1D RSI giving the opposite signal (Bearish Cross) will be a confirmation. As you see, the previous two RSI Bearish Crosses have been the two major sell signals within this 6-month Channel Up and have been formed straight after the price broke below the Higher Lows trend-line from the previous Higher Low.
Right now the price as supported by the Higher Lows trend-line and as long as it does, we will continue taking small buys towards the top. We will sell after its breaks below the Higher Lows and the RSI makes the Bearish Cross. Potential target 3930.
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S&P500 starting an expansion the likes of which we've never seenThe S&P500 index (SPX) is trading on a multi-year Channel Up pattern that started on the March 2009 bottom of the Housing (subprime mortgage) Crisis. With all the talk lately on whether or not the index is out of its Bear Phase, this chart can offer great insight on the long-term trend.
As you see, it shows that the Bear Market's bottom was priced in September 2022 exactly on the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), which has served as a Support both on December 2018 (peak of U.S. - China trade war) and January 2016 (China's slowdown, VW scandal, Oil crash). As we are all aware March 2020 was an exception (black swan event) that happens once in a hundred years. Still the 1M MA100 (green trend-line) supported.
The key here is the 3W RSI. It is trading within a Channel Down and every time the price hit its bottom, a multi-month rally started. The last two times that rally peaked on the 3.0 Fibonacci extension. Calculating the new 3.0 Fib from the 4840 top to the 3500 bottom, it gives roughly a 9000 projection. So since this is only the start on this Expansion Phase within the multi-year Channel Up pattern, it is not at all unlikely to expect steady growth from the current levels and a rough 9000 peak by 2027.
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S&P500 FIrst time in 2 weeks to hit the 4H MA50The S&P500 index (SPX) has extended its rise since our buy call 21 days ago:
The price is at the moment on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since March 28. The Higher Lows trend-line below offers an additional Support level, with the last resort being the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) below, in case the 4H RSI breaks towards the Green Zone. Regardless of this minor technical pull-back, our Target remains 4190 just below the Resistance (February 02 High), with the Higher High extension of the Channel Up showing potential for even 4250.
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S&P500 Short-term pull-back possible but bullish target intactThe S&P500 has extended its rise since our buy call 11 days ago:
We are slightly modifying the technical parameters within this Channel Up that started back in November as the 1D RSI broke above its 3-week Resistance and on the previous bottom fractal of late December/ early January that translated into a price Resistance rejection and pull-back short-term to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. From the current 4080 Resistance, the 0.5 Fib is at 3945.
This doesn't negate our long-term outlook, which is bullish towards a new Higher High within this Channel Up. Our target is for safety at 4190 (below the 4195 Resistance), but the technical wave can extend as high as +11.00% from the bottom (as the previous two Higher High waves did) and hit 4230.
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S&P500 Buy without fear. Bull not over until 2030.This is not the first time we look into the S&P500 (SPX) from a multi-decade perspective. Every time we look into the Cycles since the Great Depression we bring an additional element to the table. This time we break down parts of those Cycles even more and look into the RSI as well. This analysis will attempt to shed light into the doubt of, perhaps the majority of the market, whether or not stocks are out of the 2022 correction.
** Bear and Bull Cycles **
As you see since 2029 and the Great Depression, the index has formed three Bear and three Bull Cycles. We are currently on Bull Cycle 3. When the price breaks above the Bear Cycle Top, the Phase 1 of the Bull Cycle starts and has historically lasted 85-89 months (ends with the first major correction). Phase 2 (orange Rectangle) which starts straight after and ends on the second major correction, lasts within 31 - 35 months. Phase 2 typically ends around the middle of the Bull Cycle.
** The RSI recurring patterns **
Besides the above Cyclical symmetry, the 1M RSI has been extremely consistent throughout these Cycles. As shown, the Bear Cycle Bottom breaks well below the 30.00 barrier and touches 20.00 (extremely oversold conditions). The Bull Phases 1 and 2 are formed while the RSI is on Lower Lows.
** Conclusion **
From the above characteristics and parameters, we can easily draw the conclusion that the 2022 correction was Phase 2 of the Bull Cycle and we won't be seeing its bottom in a very long time. More specifically not before 2031, as Bull Cycles 1 and 2 formed their Tops a little after Fibonacci 2.5 time extension. On Bull Cycle 3 (current) this is on January 2031.
This is in our opinion the ultimate S&P500 cheat-sheet and the reason you may invest with no fear. What do you think?
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S&P500 is pricing the new Low of the bullish leg.The S&P500 (SPX) hit today the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) again and the Higher Lows since the March 13 bottom. That was a bottom on the 5-month Channel Up and the best buy opportunity on a 1 month time-frame.
With the 4H RSI sequence similar to the Higher Lows of the previous bullish leg in late December/ early January, we see SPX attempting to price the new Low. This is a new buy opportunity. Our long-term target of 4190 is intact.
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S&P500 Buy the 4hour MA50 pullbackThe S&P500 failed to close over the 4hour MA200 and is pulling back to the 4hour MA50.
Buy this pull back as it is not only near the 0.5 Fibonacci level but also the Cup pattern's Support.
Target Resistance A at 4080.
Previous chart:
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S&P500 Best buy signal since early January.The S&P500 index (SPX) is on a 1 week rebound following the March 13 Low which was made on Support Zone 2 and is so far on the bottom of the 5-month Channel Up. All candles have closed inside this pattern and as you see so far every bearish and bullish wave follows similar structure as the previous one.
We are near the best buy signal since January 06 as the 1D MACD is above to form a Bullish Cross. Our short-term target is the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and medium-term 4190 (near Resistance).
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S&P500 is a perfect buy here long-term in this Cup pattern.The S&P500 is on a medium-term correction following the February 02 rejection just below the 1W MA100 (red trend-line). The long-term pattern is a Cup formation and the price is approaching its buy Zone.
Right now though it sits on the Higher Lows trend-line that has formed the medium-term Channel Up and is an ideal buy for the long-term, with limited downside. The 1D RSI is on the December Support and if the perfect symmetry with the downtrend of the Bear Cycle holds, it means it is on an the inverse path of February 22 - June 16 2022.
There are obvious Resistance Zones within the Cup pattern, while also the Fibonacci retracement levels align very well. Buy and target next the 0.618 Fib and the bottom of Resistance Zone 2 at 4300. That is marginally below the August 16 High.
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S&P500 Perfectly following the long-term planIt is more than a week ago that we called the exact bottom buy on the S&P500 (SPX) index:
Our first target (4050) has been hit and the 'Powell pull-back' is giving us a new opportunity to enter. As you seethe 1D RSI rebounded exceptionally on the Support provided by the December 19 Low and what's left now is only for the 1D MACD to make a Bullish Cross and solidify the new bullish wave to the new Higher High of the Channel Up.
The previous rise topped on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, so Target 1 now is 4170. If then we close above the 4,195 Resistance, we will take one final short-term buy targeting 4250 (Target 2).
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S&P500 The huge Inverse H&S has started and its target is 4700!Last week we have made clear our short/ medium-term view on the S&P500 (SPX), calling a buy on the exact bottom of the Channel Up:
It is time to look again, as we normally do on a monthly basis, on the bigger picture, looking at the 2D time-frame. The Channel Up is clear and so is the Resistance on the 2D MA200 (orange trend-line) which formed the previous High in February. The rebound was achieved exactly on the 2D MA50 (blue trend-line).
The long-term pattern that stands out is the huge Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) whose head was the bottom of the Bear Cycle, which after breaking its Lower Highs trend-line completed the Right Shoulder. Technically this suggests that the price should now begin its rise to its usual target. That is the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level and is exactly on the $4700 mark.
The Fibonacci retracement levels from the Top-Bottom of the Bear Cycle have so far matched Support and Resistance levels with high accuracy, so keep those in mind for the next immediate High, e.g. on the 0.618 Fib at 4315, which is also almost the August 15 2022 High.
The STOCH RSI is just coming off a Bullish Cross, indicating that we are just at the start of a new rally.
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S&P500 bouncing on the Bear-Bull market separator. Strong buy.The S&P500 isn't only supported this week on the 1day MA200 but also hit the Pivot line that separates the Bear from the Bull market.
During the 2022 Bear market it was a Resistance, keeping all price action below it, having it total 6 rejections.
This is the first time it is being tested from above as a Support.
With a Channel Up having emerged as the pattern that is guiding the S&P500 into the new Bull Cycle, the RSI is on a flat Support, similar to what it did on June 16th 2022. A massive rally followed.
Our Target is 4300 (under Resistance A).
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S&P500 Bottom by tomorrow, slow 2-week recovery after.The S&P500 index (SPX) is trading between its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) ad the long-term Channel Up pattern that started on the November 03 Low is attempting to price its new Lower High.
Based on the symmetry provided by the 1D RSI that is on the 39.00 Support (Dec 19 and Dec 28 Double Bottom), the 1D MACD and and 4H Death Cross (February 27 and December 19), the current sequence is extremely similar with the December 19 - 22 bottom fractal. That was basically the previous Higher Low of the Channel Up. The 4H MA50 (green trend-line) is about to cross tomorrow below the 1D MA50 and that marked the exact previous bottom on December 22.
As a result, this is the most optimal long-term buy level, and we are targeting initially at 4050 (middle of the Channel Up) and 4250 (just below the Higher Highs trend-line) in extension.
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S&P500 Approaching its new long-term bottomOn our last week analysis for the S&P500 Index (SPX) we called for the start of the correction within this long-term Channel Up pattern:
As you see the timing was spot on and the price broke below both the middle of the Channel Up and the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). Along with the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), the latter is close to forming a Death Cross on the 4H time-frame, which is a bearish pattern. The last time this was formed was on December 19 2022 and it was the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the pattern.
The 1D RSI is already reversing, though the 1D MACD shows there might still be a few days left before bottoming. On an R/R basis, the risk is low buying on the 4H Death Cross formation, and this is what we will do, getting the most optimal long-term buy entry. Our first target is the middle of the Channel Up (4050) and upon a 4H MA200 re-test as Support, the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel as an extension (4250).
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S&P500 Two buy entries for the long termThe S&P500 has been inside a Channel Up ever since the October 13th market bottom.
Even though it didn't make a proper Higher High in February, the recent correction is still contained inside the Channel Up.
The MA50 1D is holding. If the price makes a closing under it, the Rising Support assumes controls of the trend and becomes the prevailing pattern.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy now as long as the price is closing over the MA50 1D.
2. If it closes below, buy on the Rising Support.
Targets:
1. 4140 (under Resistance Zone A) and 4300 if the price closes above Resistance Zone A.
2. 4300 (representing a +11.35% rise from the Rising Support, which is a price range delivered in both previous rebounds on this Rising Support). Also under Resistance B.
Tips:
1. The MACD 1D shows that there is still room to fall before finding a Support, enhancing Scenario 2. Lower risk buy after it makes a Buy Cross.
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S&P500 pulling back. Those are the levels to sell/ buy.The S&P500 index (SPX) is pulling back after making a medium-term top on February 02. This isn't yet a Higher High on the Channel Up that started on the October 13 market bottom but it is a Higher High on the Diverging Higher High (light blue) that started on November 03.
Keep in mind that the October Channel Up is what helped us take the accurate buy exactly on its bottom 3 weeks ago:
With the 1D MACD making a Bearish Cross, the last time it formed one was on December 05, straight after the Dec 01 Higher High. That fractal sell initially bounced off Support Zone 1 that was formed from the last Higher Low before the top and then after breaking below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), it rebounded just before hitting Support Zone 2 (formed by the first Higher Low of the sequence).
On the current price action, Support Zone 1 fits perfectly above the bottom of the October Channel Up, while Support Zone 2 is at the bottom of the November Diverging Channel Up. Of course the long-term confirmation would come after the 1D MACD makes a Bullish Cross but we will attempt one tight stop buy on Support Zone 1 and the last on Support Zone 2. In both cases we are targeting the 4195 Resistance and if broken the 4325 August 15 High.
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S&P500 Has it bottomed beyond any doubt?Two weeks ago the S&P500 index (SPX) closed above its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since the week of April 04 2022. Last week it tested the 1W MA50 as a Support, successfully held it and rebounded. If it wasn't for the rejection just below the 1W MA100, we would talk about the perfect break-out.
Still however this is a nearly perfect recovery:
a) The dominant pattern was an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S), which practically formed the bottom of the Bear Cycle, rebounding on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
b) The 1W RSI started rising on Higher Lows, while the price was on Lower Lows, waving a huge bullish divergence.
Interestingly, we've seen the very same IH&S pattern and RSI Bullish Divergence during both of the last major Bear Cycles, the 2008/09 Housing Crisis and 2001/02 Dotcom crash. Common feature of those two is that after the index closed above the 1W MA50, it formed a Channel Up (green pattern) that led it straight to the 1W MA200. This time the 1W MA200 is a Support, but there is the Resistance of previous Lower High to consider. And that is at 4640. Valid target in our opinion by the end of Q3 if this Channel Up is materialized.
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S&P500: Rejected on 2month Resistance.The S&P500 index got rejected on Friday marginally under the R1 Zone (4,100 - 4,140) and is pullig-back having turned the 4H time frame neutral (RSI = 54.304, MACD = 15.240, ADX = 18.708). As we discussed previously, we are following the December fractal for direction. There was a Double Top rejection on R1 during December and when it broke under the 4H MA200, the price visited the S1 Zone.
Consequently, a potential crossing under the 4H MA200 will be a bearish signal (TP = 3,800) and a crossing above 4,150 (R1 top) will be a bullish signal (TP = 4,330).
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S&P500 against VIX showing some bumpy road aheadThis is the S&P500 index (SPX) against the Volatility Index (VIX). We've charted VIX's Cycles since June 2020 where the bottoms are in essence alarms and signals to be on the look out to sell and take profits on stocks while the tops are buy signals to enter the market.
Based on that model, VIX appears to be entering the rising curve, meaning that a sell alarm is starting to ring. Given the fact that the price is approaching a Resistance level where it was rejected two times already, we may see a decent drop. If the drop isn't delivered and it was just the two day quick pull-back of January 18/19, then the Cycle pattern may start to invalidate the strong drops of the Bear Cycle and instead mimic the blue-print of the 2020 - 2021 small pull-backs. That would indicate that the Bear Cycle is over and that S&P500 has officially entered the new Bull Cycle.
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