Get started

Standardandpoors500

S&P500 Crunch time, either holds or the Bear Market continuesThe S&P500 index (SPX) has has two major rejections since December 13, as despite breaking (only intra-day) above the Lower Highs trend-line since January 04, it got rejected marginally above the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and the next day on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). That is a double failure to break-out and considering that the 1W MA50 had the precious Lower High rejection on August 16, this is far from ideal for buyers. On top of that, the RSI on the 1W time-frame got rejected on the Resistance Zone that formed the last two Lower Highs and is holding since March 28. As a result, with the price breaking today below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in over a month (since November 10), we are ahead of critical crossroads. Either it holds and keeps 1D candles closing inside the Channel Up (dotted lines) that started on the October 13 Low or it breaks below and repeats the patterns of the April/ May and August/ September sell-offs. As you see those sell sequences have very distinct structures. A break below the Channel Up should test the Support Zone below where we could see a temporary rebound back above the 1D MA50 towards the 1D MA200, in a Cup formation. A closing below the Support Zone, confirms going for the October Low. In the case that the Channel Up holds and closes all candles inside it, a rebound is still limited to the January 04 Lower Highs trend-line. In order to resume buying, we need to see a candle closing above the 1W MA50, unlike December 13. In that case we can see the index test the 4330 (August 16 High) Resistance by March. At this point, it is worth noting that the 1W RSI has also a clear Higher Lows trend-line that caught the previous market Lows and in fact is a Bullish Divergence. Keep an eye on that as a bounce on that Higher Lows trend-line can again give us the new Low and if it indicates indeed a long-term Bullish Divergence, this time it may be a Higher Low on the index as well. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 rebounding on the 4H MA200 and Channel Up bottom?The S&P500 index (SPX) is rebounding today after making a Double Test of the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). This is just over the Channel Up pattern's bottom (Higher Lows trend-line). The sequence resembles the November 04 - 10 Higher Lows fractal (also based on the 4H MACD) and what happened then was an instant rise to the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up. This time, especially ahead of Tuesday's CPI and Wednesday's Fed Rate Decision, the index is limited first to the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and then obviously the Lower Highs trend-line that has been holding (and forming all of the 2022 High rejections) since January 04. Notice that on the (red) 4090 - 4100 Resistance Zone, we also have the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), the last major MA standing. As a result if the price breaks above the 4H MA50, we can take the bullish break-out signal and target just below this highly important Resistance cluster at 4080. A break above the 1W MA50 can be used as a buy continuation signal and target the top of the Channel Up (4170 - 4190) short-term. On the other hand, a closing below the 1D MA50 (green trend-line), which is the medium-term Support, will be taken as a bearish break-out signal targeting the 3700 Support Zone. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
2
BITCOIN and S&P500 Has a 10 year Bull phase just started?A 1 year correction which is nothing but common throughout Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) existence, has done its work well in spreading fear and doubt at the market during this inflationary stock crisis in 2022. In times like this what helps the most is to maintain a long-term perspective and look at how history reacted in similar situations. We thought that nothing can help us get a better grasp at the situation than look into how Bitcoin compares to the major stock index the S&P500 (SPX). On this 1M time-frame, Bitcoin is displayed by the orange trend-line while the S&P500 by the blue. We are looking into the S&P500's price action since the Great Depression. As you see the index repeats through history four major phases: * The Bear Phase (red), where the index gets into a Megaphone pattern and has two major correction sequences. It breaks initially below the 1M MA100 (green trend-line) and then below the 1M MA200 (black trend-line). * The Accumulation Phase (blue), where the index starts recovering from the Bear Phase and breaks above both the 1M MA100 and MA200, turning sideways. This is technically the most efficient/ earliest available level to enter the market. * The Expansion Phase (yellow), where the index established trading above the 1M MA100/200 (never breaks them until the next Bear Phase) and makes the first multi-year rise. This Phase is marked by three "smaller" correction periods (red ellipses). * The Bull Phase (green), where the index recovers from the last small correction and rises aggressively to form the top before the new Bear Phase. It tends to last around 10 years. This year's correction (2022) is the third one of the Expansion Phase and as the price remains above the 1M MA100, it is more likely that with the correction already completed, S&P500 has entered its new Bull Phase. The chart clearly shows that Bitcoin's 12 year period of immense growth has only been during the S&P500's Accumulation and Expansion Phases. This suggests that we may haven't seen yet it's strongest growth to come during the stock market's new Bull Phase! The correlation of Bitcoin's tops and bottoms to those of the S&P500 is more than obvious. Most market participants say that this time is different due to the soaring inflation and aggressive rate hikes. But hasn't this also been the narrative in the late 70s? Still the market found the mechanisms to grow in the Expansion Phase that followed and the new technologies (internet etc) to inflate it to immense highs in the 90s until the eventual crashes of the 00s. It may seem like a different reason each time but the behavior is always cyclical with repeating patterns and phases, the narrative in the past 100 years can be whatever the news decide it to be. But the market will continue printing and printing the same patterns as human behavior stays the same. So what do you think, are we about to witness the growth of a lifetime on both Bitcoin and stocks in the next 10 years? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
SP:SPXLong
by TradingShot
11
S&P500 One last round of pain before the Bull Cycle?The S&P500 index (SPX) closed the worst week since October on a not so encouraging note as the failed to break and got rejected on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). A simple comparison with the major corrections of 2002/03, 1982/83 and 1962/63 shows that as long as the index remains below the 1W MA50, the Bear Cycle is in effect. A common characteristic among all 4 sequences is that the 1W RSI is on Higher Lows while the index (with the exception of 1962/63) is on Lower Lows, i.e. a Bullish Divergence. The exception of 1962/63 is the most optimistic one as after a mont of sideways price action on the 1W MA50 (green circle), the index eventually rose aggressively and recovered the High. The 1982/83 period is the most pessimistic as while the RSI made one last (3rd) Higher Low, the S&P500 made a Lower Low (red circle) before rebounding above the 1W MA50 and into the new Bull Cycle. The 2002/03 sequence is a neutral one as the index did get rejected on the 1W MA50 one last time but made a Higher Low (blue circle) and broke above the 1W MA50 1.5 month later. Which of the three scenarios do you think will prevail this time? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
SP:SPX
by TradingShot
5
S&P500 Best medium-term Buy Signal but bearish if this breaks.The S&P500 hit today the 3915 Support level that was formed on the November 17 Low. This also hit the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up that started on the October 13 market low. Technically this is the most optimal buy level on the medium-term, which should test first the 4H MA50 (green trend-line) and then the Lower Highs trend-line since the start of the year, where the index got rejected on December 01. That rejection however is far from ideal as it is the trend-line where the previous three sell-off started on the long-term. The signal that makes it even more bearish is the 1D MACD which formed a Bearish Cross. As a result, if the price closes below the 3915/ Channel Up Support cluster, we'll have a sell signal, targeting the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on the short-term. Closing below it, should kick-start an even bigger correction to at least the 1W MA200 (grey trend-line). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CME_MINI:ES1!
by TradingShot
5
S&P500 Will Dow's Golden Cross be a life saver for S&P?The S&P500 got rejected just above the 1D MA200 on the Lower Highs Resistance holding since Jan 2022. Contrary to that, Dow Jones not only has broken above its Lower Highs Resistance since Nov 10th but also made a Higher High above the August High, before getting rejected. With a Golden Cross emerging on the 1D chart, Dow has high chances of bouncing on the former (Lower Highs) Resistance and establish it as a Support. This can be just whar the S&P500 needs to kick start its rally that breaks above almost a full year of Lower Highs. Will it succeed? Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
TVC:SPX
by TheCryptagon
2
S&P500 Everyone watches this Resistance but nobody notices this!The S&P500 index broke last week above its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since April 21 but so far has failed to touch the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), getting rejected once again on the Lower Highs Zone (red) since the All Time High (ATH) of January 04 2022. That is the (obvious) Resistance that everyone is paying attention too but nobody seems to be noticing the support pattern that may change S&P's fortunes around. That is, as you see on the chart, the curved Support Zone (dashed) that is connecting all the Lower Lows since December 2021 and provided all counter-trend rallies so far. A rejection now on the ATH Resistance Zone, can pull the price back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and below towards this curved Support. A bounce there, confirms the pattern and would make the first Higher Low since December 03 2021! If it breaks though, we do expect the 3490 Low to be tested, even for S&P500 to move to a Lower Low and extend the Bear Cycle. If the price reverses now though and neutralize Thursday's rejection by breaking above the ATH Lower Highs trend-line, we think that the 1W MA50 still won't be enough. Ideally we would like to see a break above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level (4150), in order to call for a confirmed bullish break-out. The reason is simple. In the previous two counter-trend rallies/ rebounds of this Bear Cycle, the rebound never broke about the 0.786 Fib, not on the March 29 Lower High and neither on the August 16 Lower High. A break now, would make us turn bullish targeting the 4330 Resistance 1 (August 16 High). A main reason we give more probabilities to a bullish break-out now, even though we've honored this Lower Highs zone with our previous analyses in 2022, is that the RSI on the 1W time-frame is flashing a huge Bullish Divergence, being on Higher Lows since May 23 while in the same period the price action has been on Lower Lows. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
SP:SPX
by TradingShot
12
S&P500 and VIX Cycles say rally more likely from now onOn this 1W time-frame we look into the S&P500 index (SPX) and the Volatility Index (VIX) since 1990. We've used the Sine Waves on an (approximately) VIX bottom-to-bottom basis in order to identify what the S&P500 normally does at this part of the Cycle. As you see from the current point and until VIX Cycle's next bottom (blue zone), the S&P500 in a total of three occasions, it has been on a Rally twice and the other time January 28 2022 - February 07 2005, it was on its way to the final drop of the Dotcom Bear Market, lasting 35 weeks and then a strong Rally followed. If the above is anything to follow then the S&P500 has more probabilities of rising consistently for the rest of this part of VIX's Cycle and if the case is like 2002, then drop for the next 35 weeks and the rally aggressively. Which scenario do you think is more likely? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
3
S&P500: Still in Bull Market. This is a buy opportunity.It is always best to keep a long term perspective when investing. Despite being in a correction throughout the whole 2022, the S&P500 index has been giving some very important signs that it has hit a major support level and that it remains within the boundaries of a Bull Market. To begin with, the index has been trading within a Channel Up (log scale) since March 2009 (the bottom of the previous recession). This chart shows that it has been holding very well up until it broke upwards to the 1.236 Fibonacci level on April 2021 as the market was loaded with trillions of newly issued USD. This caused the index to turn overbought. On the long term, we can view this as a much needed technical correction from an overbought state. First and foremost, the 2022 correction hit on September, held on October and is rebounding now on the 1M MA50 (blue). This has been the long term support for S&P500 on December 2018 and February 2016, i.e. the Channel's two major corrections before COVID took the market by surprise on March 2020 down to the 1M MA100 (green), which triumphantly supported and caused a massive rebound. So far the index shows that this is a technical correction within a Bull Cycle. Only if S&P500 closes a month below the 1M MA50, can we expect to visit the 1M MA100 again. And in turn if this breaks as well, which would mean a break below the Channel Up, visit the 1M MA200 (orange), which last held on October 2011. That would push S&P500 into Bear Market zone. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ## ## Also DONATIONS through TradingView coins help our cause of increasing the daily ideas put here for free and reach out more traders like you. ##
SP:SPXLong
by InvestingScope
1
S&P500 Close to the most critical test of the Bear Market.The S&P500 index (SPX) broke last week above the August 16 Lower Highs trend-line, following the impressive drop on October's CPI and has almost fulfilled our +5.18% bullish projection of 4040: The price is now approaching the all important 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) which rejected the price and form the last top on the 2022 Lower Highs trend-line on August 16. A break above it would be the first since April 21 and undoubtedly, the first sign towards a long-term bullish break-out into a recovery from this Bear Market. Technically the January 04 Lower Highs trend-line is a little higher than the 1D MA200, exactly where the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) is, so we can set a tolerance level there. A break above it, we'll take as a bullish break-out buy and target 4328 (Resistance 2). If the index is yet again rejected within this 1D MA200 - 1W MA50 Resistance Zone, then it remains (until further notice) within the Bear Cycle but the downtrend would be confirmed by a break below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which will initially target the 3643 Support (1). Note that the 4H MA50 (green trend-line) has been technically the best place to buy these Bear Market rallies on their latest stages. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CME_MINI:ES1!
by TradingShot
1
S&P500, Oil & Gold aligned with 2008. Deep recession in 2023?Last week has been without a doubt highlighted by the unexpectedly big drop on the U.S. CPI for October, lifting the market sentiment to one of the strongest 3 day rallies in recent history. In contrast to this euphoria we want to remind you the relative position of the thre major assets (S&P500, WTI Oil and Gold) compared to 2008. So far S&P500 is trading within a similar pattern as in 2008. A break above its 1D MA200 (orange) and Megaphone can reverse the long term bearish trend. Oil seems to have started to diverge as it broke above the 1D MA50 (blue), something that didn't happen in 2008, but is still bearish below the 1D MA200. Gold is also printing a similar pattern to 2008. As you saw this week, the break below the 1D MA200 has caused a strong rebound similar to Q3 2008. A continuation of this rally can basically solidify Gold's status as a safe-haven next year. Those charts show that unless all three reverse from their 2008 patterns, the financial markets may enter into the most aggressive part of the recession in 2023. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ## ## Also DONATIONS through TradingView coins help our cause of increasing the daily ideas put here for free and reach out more traders like you. ##
TVC:SPX
by InvestingScope
33
S&P500: Bullish for the next 10 days at least.The S&P500 hit the 1D MA100 (green) on Friday for the first time since September 13. The rebound started off a Double Bottom and broke above the dashed Lower Highs trend-line that is consistent with all previous short-term rallies in 2022. Based on that, the price should stay bullish for at least the next 10 days and hit the 1D MA200 (orange). We can even make a case for a potential long-term bullish reversal above the bold black Lower Highs trend-line, as the 1W RSI has been trading within a Channel Up on Higher Lows since June 21, while at the same time the index made Lower Lows. This is a Bullish Divergence on the long-term but we will have time to analyze this in the coming days if the major breakout occurs. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ## ## Also DONATIONS through TradingView coins help our cause of increasing the daily ideas put here for free and reach out more traders like you. ##
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by InvestingScope
S&P500: More Pep!S&P500 needs some more pep to make it above the resistance at 3820 points, so let’s cheer it on! S&P, you are strong enough to climb above 3820 points and to hop into the upper blue zone between 3943 and 4015 points overlapping with the pink zone between 3963 and 4052 points. After you have finished wave (III) in blue there as well as concluded a countermovement in the course of wave (IV) in blue, you will continue to rise further. Although there is a 33% chance that you could lose your grip and drop below the support at 3502 points, that would only activate a detour through the lower blue zone between 3455 and 3285 points overlapping with the pink zone between 3362 and 3271 points. In that case, you would just complete wave alt.4 in turquoise and start the ascent afterwards.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarketIntel
S&P500 Is this the last Support standing??------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant and support me and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ The S&P500 index (SPX) has been pulling back again considerably since the mid-August High, which still was a Lower High within the current Bear Phase. A very consistent pattern that throughout this prolonged, multi-year Bull Cycle has offered the best buy entries possible, can be seen on the 3W time-frame. The signal is given by the 3W RSI which as you see defines almost all of the Bull Cycle since the bottom of the Housing Crisis in 2009. The pattern is a Lower Lows trend-line that started on the August 2011 Low and every time the index hit that Support, it rebounded aggressively into a new Bull Phase, thus providing the most optimal buy entry. The trend-line was almost hit on the May 31 candle, which was the first time the index hit the MA50 (blue trend-line) since May 2020 and the post COVID-crash recovery. Breaking marginally below the MA50 and then rebounding has been the norm throughout this pattern. During the COVID crash, the RSI Lower Lows trend-line was hit on its exact level, however SPX briefly breached even below the MA100 (green trend-line) amidst this never-seen-before market panic. Can this mean that the RSI has its last Lower Lows touch in store for us with a Low closer to the MA100 again? It is possible, but what we should keep from this pattern is that if the post 2009 Bull Cycle era remains valid, then the next RSI Lower Lows trend-line touch will be as close to a perfect buy entry as it can get. And if broken, we could assume that "the last Support standing" of the Bull Cycle has finally fallen. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
SP:SPX
by TradingShot
6
S&P500: S&P-inkS&P500 seems to be tickled pink – metaphorically as well as literally. The index has taken to our expectations and has a lot of pink to face. First, the index should fall below the support at 3639 points and into the pink zone between 3598 and 3508 points to finish wave III in pink. Then, it should return above this mark once more to complete wave IV in pink in the pink zone between 3712 and 3885 points. Afterwards, S&P500 should finally move downwards again, heading for the zone between 3362 and 3271 points in – guess what? – pink!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarketIntel
6
S&P500: Rare, Medium or Done? 🥩That’s generally the question when preparing steaks. Additionally, we might also ask S&P500 whether it is already done – namely with wave V in pink and wave 3 in blue. We still give the index some time and room to finish them both, but afterwards, it should get started on a countermovement leading into the lower blue zone between 4144 and 3998 points. There, it should complete wave 4 in blue and subsequently take off again. There is also a 40% chance, though, that S&P500 could drop below the resistance at 3950 points, thus eliciting a detour below the next mark at 3639 points and into the turquoise zone between 3597 and 3353 points.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarketIntel
1
S&P500 Bullish month ahead towards at least the 1D MA50The S&P500 index continues to trade within a long-term Channel Down, providing excellent trade opportunities on its Lower Highs and Lower Lows. Our previous analysis on this symbol was a sell warning as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) was resisting: As it turned out, that was the most optimal sell of this phase and the index confirmed our trading plan by making a new Lower Low on the Channel. Being just shy off the -0.236 Fibonacci extension, we expect the index to reverse now and rebound on a 1 month horizon. This is further backed by the 1D RSI Double Bottom on the oversold barrier. That continues to mirror the Lower Lows sequence of late January - February 2022, which initiated a rebound towards the Lower Highs (top) trend-line of the Channel Down, above both the 1D MA50 and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). That Lower High was priced on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous Lower Low. That level is now around 4323, which is above the Channel Down, so a more modest target set would be first the 1D MA50, which at the time should be around 3950 and with a candle closing above it, an extension target near the top (Lower Highs) of the Channel, around 4100. The invalidation of this pattern will come only with a weekly closing below the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), in which case we may see a rapid sell-off towards the 1M MA100. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by TradingShot
4
S&P500 The 1W MA200 seems inevitable but there's also good newsIt has only been five months since I posted the following chart in January, calling for high yearly volatility ahead due to a U.S. elections pattern I discovered: ** The 2008 Recovery Channel ** Of course I didn't expect the S&P500 index (SPX) to reach its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) that quickly, but still the chart was a right one. The index has made a new yearly low this week and this 1W chart displays the dynamics of the Channel Up the index has been trading in since it started recovering from the 2008 Bear Market. With the Fed Rate Decision today being pivotal to the stock markets' trend and a lot of market participants calling for a recession, it is useful to see what the long-term indicators are showing us. ** The 1W MA200 ** First of all as mentioned, it is very close to testing the 1W MA200, basically only 230 points (currently at 3502.96). Why all the talk about the 1W MA200? Because as you see on the chart, it has been the long-term Support of this 12 year Channel and has only broken significantly lower once on March 2020 during the COVID crash, which was a situation (economic lockdowns) completely new to the market. This is why I've included the -0.5 Fibonacci extension on the Channel because it shows that extreme, same as the 1.5 that shows the bullish extreme of the post COVID aggressive money printing to stimulate the economy. ** The 1W RSI and LMACD ** I believe the index will hit the 1W MA200 within a month's time and by then, the 1W RSI could be as low as during the COVID crash (March 16 2020). The 1W LMACD hasn't yet made a Bullish Cross but is very close to the COVID low. Every time the 1W MA200 is hit during these 12 years, an LMACD Bullish Cross has always confirmed the uptrend and recovery back to the prior Highs. ** We can recover by the end of the year ** So you may be wondering, what are the good news? Well, a very interesting stat is that on all those four occasions, it took S&P500 within 19 - 26 weeks from the moment it hit the 1W MA200 to reach its prior High. Assuming it hits the 1W MA200 by the end of July, we can recover the loss of this correction by the end of the year (or January 2023 tops). If the 1W MA200 fails to support the index and closes monthly candles below it, then it is more likely to see a strong crash to the 1M MA100 (red trend-line at 2826.50) as in the March 2020 COVID sell-off. Interestingly enough, the 1M MA100 is currently exactly on the -0.5 Fibonacci extension that supported the COVID crash. Where do you think S&P500 will find support next? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
7
S&P500: No LazybonesDespite the holiday in the United States, S&P500 has not been lazing around but has climbed into the middle white zone between 4156 and 4224 points. There, the index should finish wave (3) in white and subsequently start a countermovement into the lower white zone between 4076 and 3999 points. After it has completed wave (4) in white in this region, S&P500 should turn around and head for the upper white zone between 4332 and 4400 points to finish wave (5) in white. However, there is a 38% chance that the index could break through the bottom of the lower white zone, fall below the support at 3855 points and drop into the magenta zone between 3788 and 3683 points.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarketIntel
S&P500 First MACD Bullish Cross formed since March 15The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Down ever since the January 04 2022 All Time High (ATH). Recently (May 20) it hit the Lower Low (bottom) trend-line of the Channel for the third time (Jan 24 and Feb 24 the others) and rebounded reaching the first Fibonacci extension (0.236 Fib). Perhaps even more important than the dynamics that a rebound on the Lower Lows trend-line creates is the fact that the MACD on the 1D time-frame has just made yesterday a Bullish Cross. That is the 4th time within this pattern we see this pattern forming. All previous formation have kick-started rises (+8.90%, +7.50% and +12.00% respectively in chronological order). As a result, a minimum of +7.50% rise would see the index hit roughly 4090 and the 0.5 Fib, while a maximum of +12.00% would get it to around 4275 and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). A break below the recent Lower Low though may be enough to push the price even lower to the 2.0 Fib extension around 3630. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
5
S&P500 Imminent 1D Death Cross. Bullish or bearish historically?The S&P500 index is ahead of a Death Cross on the 1D time-frame that can't be avoided. This is technically a very bearish formation, which is formed after a series of selling and suggests that more is coming. Reality though may be different some times, especially in the stock markets, so let's see how this signal has traded historically. As you see on this 1D chart, since 2015, there have been four Death Cross formations. Three took place on or after the index has formed a bottom and only once (December 03 2018), did the price broke (much) lower to form the bottom. What is common in all occurrences and may help at identifying if the current Death Cross has formed a bottom or will break lower, is the RSI indicator. When the RSI respects its Higher Lows (bullish divergence with the price that is currently on Lower Lows), then the bottom is in. On December 14 2018, that trend-line broke and that was when SPX collapsed to a new Low. Interestingly enough, during that correction, the price dipped to -20%, a repeat of that would place the current bottom around 3850. We can even go further back with the chart below, after the 2008 subprime mortgage crash, to see that the 1D Death Crosses of July 2010 and August 2011, also marked the bottom (slight lower low in 2011 but is negligible), instead of a fall to a new Low. So to sum it up, the 1D RSI is so far holding its Higher Lows trend-line. That is an early indication that the bottom will be in when the Death Cross forms, probably by early next week. Are you buying already or waiting to see if the RSI Higher Lows break first? Let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
10
SPX - SPX shows similarities with NDXThe S&P 500 Index trades approximately 7% below its all time high value that it reached on 4th January 2022. Volatility of the index fell sharply in the last three days which supports the notion that selling pressure has cooled off tremendously. Because of that we are growing increasingly bullish on SPX. This view is also supported by bullish developments taking place on the daily time frame. However, due to quickly changing conditions in the market and upcoming rate hikes by the FED we remain very cautious. We think interest rate hikes pose a substantial threat to further rise of SPX in the medium-term and long-term. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI strives to break its bearish structure, similarly like on the NQ1!. Stochastic is bearish at the moment. MACD points to the upside which is bullish, however, it still remains in the bearish territory. DM+ and DM- show bearish conditions in the market. ADX moves sideways which suggests the prevailing trend is not gaining strength but also not losing it. Overall, the daily time frame is less bearish than a week or two weeks ago. Although, the daily time frame shows mixed conditions. Technical analysis - weekly time frame Stochastic points to the upside which is bullish, however, it continues to oscillate in the bearish area. RSI started to flatten which is bullish. MACD, DM+ and DM- remain bearish. ADX exhibits growth which suggests the bearish trend is gaining strength. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral. Support and resistance Short-term support sits at 4 364.84 USD and short-term resistance at 4 595.31 USD. Support 1 lies at 4 222.62 USD while major resistance can be found at 4 818.62 USD. Please feel free to express your own ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trade.
SP:SPXLong
by Tradersweekly
8