S&P500 The 1D RSI is overbought on a big red signalS&P has been trading within a Channel Up ever since the November 2020 U.S. elections. During that time, the RSI on the 1D time-frame has never gone above 76.30. Right now however, it is overbought and approaching the 80.000 Resistance where it was last seen on September 03 2020. As you see on the chart this overbought valuation couldn't do otherwise buy initiate a medium-term pull-back of -10%, which broke below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
If the same pattern is followed, then a -10% correction would put the price exactly on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at around 4250. Of course that depends on where the top is made but right now S&P500 is exactly at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 12 month Channel Up you see on the chart. Technically if it gets rejected here, then the first buyers should appear on the 1D MA50. In any case the next target is the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at 4825.
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Standardandpoors500
S&P500 Triangle about to breakPattern: Triangle on 4H.
Signal: Buy as long as the Higher Lows trend-line holds.
Target: 4400 (just below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, similar to the March 31 break-out).
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S&P500 at 4,100 as a 'base case' this year - RBCRBC discussed its S&P500 expectations for 2021 in a recent note to clients.
RBC noted:
Our 2021 S&P 500 target of 4.100 is our base case. It is roughly the median of 15 upside scenarios that we examined. If our call proves too conservative, our analysis suggests that the S&P 500 could trade as high as 4,600 for a +20% full year gain - the most bullish scenarios we examined came close to this level.
Among the eight downside scenarios we examined, which articulate our bear case for full year or interim downside if momentum breaks lower, several point to a pullback to the 3600 / 3700 area (mid single digit drop in percentage terms depending on the starting point used) or to -3,200 (mid to high teens dip in percentage terms depending on starting point).
S&P500 has the potential to reach 4250 inside FebruaryPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the MACD has formed a Bullish Cross last Thursday.
Target: 4000 (short-term) and 4250 (medium-term).
Most recent S&P500 idea:
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S&P with and without AMAZON. What do you make of this?This chart comparison displays the S&P index with AMAZON (left) and without (right). The sole purpose is to highlight the big impact that AMZ has during the recent weekly rally after indices made a bottom.
As you see with AMAZON, S&P has been rising continuously since the March 23 bottom while without the weight of the pandemic-proof stock (since its on-line nature is favored by the lockdown) it is currently exactly on the March 23.
Food for thought on how bad the situation is on traditional companies. What do you think?
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S&P500 Is COVID just a bounce inside the Channel?** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. **
Well as you see the chart is pretty explanatory. I want your thoughts on a simple question. Was the sell-off driven by the COVID pandemic just a necessary technical bounce inside the multi-year Channel Up that started at the bottom of the 2008 crisis?
So far, even though the 2200 bottom marginally broke it, we have stronger evidence with the recent weekly rally that the trend is still bullish within the Channel Up.
The Megaphone that has emerged can be seen as similar to the one that preceded it in 2014 - 2016. Maybe now the index will continue upwards but on the lower part of the Channel Up. Notice how the RSI was descending during both Megaphones.
What do you think? Was that just a bounce? Looking forward to your opinion.
S&P: Testing the 4H MA50. Trade plan.S&P is testing today the 4H MA50 for the first time since it broke it on February 21st. Crossing and closing a 1D candle above it will be a bullish development especially if the 0.382 Fibonacci level, which has been acting as a Resistance so far at 2,650, also breaks.
On that occasion we will be expecting an extension towards the 0.618 Fib around 2,930, which is technically the last long term Resistance before the index re-enters its long term (multi-year bullish trend). This where the 4H MA200 will be waiting to also act as the final Resistance, which has already rejected one uptrend attempt on March 4th.
On a different occasion, if the 0.382 Fib at 2,650 holds, then we are expecting a pull back to the 2,450 short term Support at 2,450 and 2,200 in extension.
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S&P: Long term Buy opportunity.The index has just made a Higher Low within the 1W Channel Up (RSI = 47.048, MACD = 40.350) and technically appears to be ready to rise again. Since March the 2,728 level has provided Support every time the 1D MA200 was crossed (marginally) so consider this 1W Support the limit. The Higher High sequence is projected to be completed around 3,080, which is our current TP.
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S&P: 0.618 Fib on 1M. Potential Support.The index aggressively crossed the 1W Channel Up to the downside last week (RSI = 36.642, MACD = -236.100, Highs/Lows = -527.9643, B/BP = -1241.7760) presenting the first such correction on S&P since March. I has however found support near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level on 1M (monthly). Also the Monthly Higher Low supporting line is just below, indicating that a strong support base and buying demand zone is present on a monthly basis (RSI = 45.274, MACD = 241.800). Our target in one month's time approximately is 2,878.00 with 2,807.75 the intermediate TP.
Target hit. Expecting upside continuation. Long.TP = 2,854.75 hit as the 1D Channel Up (RSI = 65.007, MACD = 19.610, Highs/Lows = 15.5179, B/BP = 48.7240) extended on a new Higher High at 2,863.75. A smaller Rising Wedge pattern however is squeezing the price through the funnel towards the All Time Highs. That remains the second TP = 2,787.00 and the 4H Channel Up is steady enough (MACD = 8.760, Highs/Lows = 0.6071, B/BP = 13.7820) to see this through by next week.