S&P500 New 1 month rally started.The S&P500 closed on top of the MA200 (1D) and is having an impressive rally today.
This is very much alike the start of the previous two rallies since the Bear Cycle bottomed.
The pattern is a Channel Up.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price as it closed on top of the MA50 (1D).
Targets:
1. 4140 (bottom of Resistance Zone 1).
2. 4300 (under Resistance 2 and a +11% rise), assuming a pull-back takes place first on the MA50 (1D).
Tips:
1. A Buy Cross is emerging on the MACD (1D) and will confirm the uptrend.
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Standardandpoorssignals
S&P500 Under the December Resistance ahead of the FED.The S&P500 index (SPX) closed last week above the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) for the first time since April 20 2022. On top of that it formed the first 1D Golden Cross since July 08 2020, undoubtedly a very strong long-term buy signal. At the moment it is attempting to enter the 4060 - 4145 Resistance Zone, which was formed by December's two Highs. However, having broken above, 'Prior Lower High', it has an addition buy signal that it didn't have on September 13, when it failed. This is the level we pointed out two weeks ago on our SPX report:
As you see the price followed the buy call at the bottom of the Channel Up flawlessly and the only hurdle is December's Resistance Zone. We are only willing to buy again if a 1D candle closes above it and target the August 16 2022 High at 4325. Until then, we can take advantage of short-term price fluctuations and sell with a tight SL, if the price closes below the 4H MA50 (green trend-line), targeting the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line)/ 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) Support Cluster and the bottom of the long-term Channel Up.
On the downside, We will medium-term sell if the index closes below the Channel Up and target 3800 (top of Support Zone 1) and if 3760 breaks target 3710 (top of Support Zone 2).
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S&P500: Ascending Triangle on 4H.S&P500 made a (near) Double Top on the 4H chart marginally breaking the 3,240 Resistance but failing back below it quickly and is now consolidating (RSI = 58.904, MACD = 10.230, ADX = 31.641). We may have an Ascending Triangle in the making, which even though a break above 3,242 is possible (look at MACD), there are more bias to the downside, namely the 4H MA50 and MA200. The Support of the Ascending Triangle is at 3,115, which would make a perfect Higher Low on the (green) dominant trend-line.
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The S&P MARCH MADNESS in recessions & why May breaks the party!You thought that only the NCAA is entitled to a "March Madness"? Guess again. This chart shows that during recessions (the 2000 and 2008 Bubbles in particular), the S&P index makes a counter-trend rally in March that lasts for 2 months and sees an end in May.
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As you see during the 2000 Dotcom Bubble, the price started to decline, broke the MA50 on the monthly (1M) chart on March 2001 and started a counter-trend rally. In May 2001, the rally topped near the 1M MA20 and then a new more aggressive collapse started.
During the 2008 subprime mortgage Bubble, the price also started to decline, broke the MA50 on the monthly (1M) chart on March 2008 and started a counter-trend rally. In May 2008, the rally topped near the 1M MA20 and then a new more aggressive collapse started.
Right now (during the COVID-19 crisis), the index crossed the 1M MA50 on March (2020) and has been (counter?) rallying since. We are in May (which has been the turning point during the past 2 recessions) and already the volatility is high.
As you see, the MACD has been also printing a similar "topping" pattern to the previous 2 recessions.
If we are indeed on a major correction/ recession, will May mark the end of the March rally? And if so, will it make a -50%/-57% decline (1700 - 1500 respectively)? I am very curious to read your opinion on this, please share your views and charts!
P.S. As with my previous recession ideas on S&P and DOW, the idea here is not to spread fear and start calling for mega shorts but to educate and point out the obvious pattern similarities. Have a look on my previous similar work: