Standard Bank just made a huge signal to SELL to R150Standard Bank has formed an M Formation.
The nature of the analysis is down and is a sell as it's broken below the neckline and the price is below both the 20 and 200MA>
So it looks like the next target is R150.00.
FUNDAMENTALS
Fundamentals also came out today and yesterday which could influence the price and the large candle today.
Standard Bank Group Says FY Headline Earnings Per Ordinary Share At 2590.4 Cents
Standard Bank posted a 27% in annual profit.
And there was an appointment of a non-executive director
Standardbank
Standard Bank Showing upside to R200.00 with a major warningCup and Handle formed on Standard Bank.
The price broke above the brim, then it came back down to give a conservative entry.
7>21>200
RSI>50
Target R200.00
WARNING
The biggest issue is that a GAP has formed during the formation. Statistically, gaps close 70% of the time, which means we can expect downside to come in the next few days.
Look the bias is bullish but with the gap makes it a medium probability trade.
Standard Bank almost ready for a good buy to R200 or Goodbye Cup and Handle has clearly formed on Standard Bank.
I don't like this Bearish engulfing candle that formed.
The price didn't break above the brim level so we will have to be a bit patient before buying.
We then have other bullish signs in the meantime.
7>21>200 - Moving Averages
RSI>50 -
Target R200.00
CONCERNS: Obviously we are not going to buy until we get the break. This can either go up or can crash heavily.
All we can do is wait and act accordingly.
Standard Bank upside to come to R186.29Falling Wedge has established on Standard Bank.
Price has just broken above, but it's early days.
7>21 but 200 is still flirting with the previous Moving averages...
My first target is R186.29.
CONCERNS:
The JSE is mirroring the upside of the American markets (with the good earnings results) With the Dollar strengthening again, this bull run could be short lived and the market could crash below forming a fake out. I'll nevertheless take the trade and only risk 1% of my portfolio...
Standard Bank looks very cheap....Standard Bank is far from a “quality” company, and they arguably have several structural headwinds over the next several years. Nevertheless, the company seems to be trading at a discount.
Standard bank suffered a +/- 55% reduction in their annual earnings per share from 2018 – 2020. This has resulted in the annual debt to EBITDA more than doubling from 2019 to 2020.
The price to book ratio is trading at 1.19 which is comparable to where it was at the height of the Global Financial Crisis in 2009.
Standard Bank has flagged higher earns alongside a brighter outlook for earnings growth. Standard Bank has announced that its half year earnings in 2021 was x3 that of the first half of 2020.
All things considered, it appears to be cheap with a lot of the bad news already having been priced in. The share price has yet to recover to where it was before covid struck. It looks like a good entry point into a cheap company that just needs to do the basics right.
Lets see how it pans out.
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Standard Bank Long IdeaFinally there's some action on JSE:INL BK"]JSE:SBK . I'm bullish on the financial sector, saw some good recoveries on bank stocks; firing in all barrels. and JSE:NED doing wonders.
Unfortunately you can't have them all, but JSE:STXFIN will give you a good exposure to this sector.
SBK short if it remains within channelJSE:SBK has been trading in a sideways channel since June. Two days ago, it seemed to be breaking out of the channel in an upward direction, but now it looks like it has found some resistance at the top of the channel. If it fails to break out the top and continues down into the channel, I will consider a short position towards the bottom of the channel.
Pair Trade Setup : Short Sanlam vs. Long Standard BankSanlam has outperformed Standard bank by a margin of 27% from the lows we saw in May of this year. The chart of their relative ratios ( SLM / SBK ) has now approached an important area of resistance (0.46 to 0.477) which has been in place for the last two years. If you take a look at the individual charts of the underlying counters, one will notice that Sanlam has once again turned off important resistance levels between R82 and R85 while Standard Bank is not trading too far away from its 200 week moving average which has provided important support for the stock over the last two years. In Addition, the Standard Bank daily chart is trading in a triangle with support some R2 away from current levels. This would support my view on the pair trade as i believe that Sanlam will under-perform Standard Bank going forward, or at least, there is sufficient reason to believe that Standard bank has a better chance of climbing higher than Sanlam at this point in time. In Addition, the MACD indicator has made a lower high even though price made a slightly higher swing high which further reinforces my view that price action is weak and should see the pair ratio revert lower.
SLM -> PE ratio: 22.2x DY : 3.85%
SBK -> PE ratio 9.8x DY: 5.69%
From a fundamental perspective, Standard Bank's Price to Earnings Ratio is not demanding whilst also boasting a much better Dividend yield.
Suggested ratio entry point : 0.463 - 0.475
Suggested ratio stop loss: closed above 0.480
Suggested ratio exit point: 0.427 to 0.433
To be entered at a ratio of 1:1. i.e 100k nominal short position in Sanlam vs. 100k nominal long Position in Standard Bank.
Assuming we entered this pair at 0.465 today, used a stop loss at 0.480 and locked in profits @ 0.43, we are risking a move of 3.2% against us to make a potential profit of 7.5% for a risk reward ratio of just over 2.3x