Stanley Black & Decker | SWK | Long at $85.00Stanley Black and Decker NYSE:SWK breached my selected historical simple moving average and may likely be forming an upward channel into an overall positive reversal. It's "obeying" the simple moving average lines so far, with a nice bounce off the base at $85. Earnings and cash flow are expected to grow into 2026, but caution should be used if the economy slows further... It currently has a dividend yield of 3.74%. While I wouldn't be surprised if the price dipped to close out the price gap in the low $80s, NYSE:SWK is in a personal buy zone at $85.00.
Target #1 = $100
Target #2 = $114
Target #3 = $125
Target #4 = $137
Stanley
SWK is target for dip buying festivalBased on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on October 1, 2021 with a closing price of 173.87.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 174.83 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 2.089% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 5.72% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 9.332% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.5% rise must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 5 trading bars; half occur within 17 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 37 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
Morgan Stanley Elliott Prediction using wave and fib analysisA cluttered chart showing with all my work of predicting a 60-70% upside opportunity in Morgan Stanley.
Target: $65-70 depending on time with more upside if breaks out of long term channel.
Stop at 34.31 below golden zone of 2 to 3 Elliott wave move. As low as $33 (50% retrace of waves 1-3 move).
Yield curve inversion and Morgan Stanley predictionMorgan Stanley predicted end of economic cycle in 2021. www.morganstanley.com
And it looks like a yield curve inversion will occur in 2019 or 2020. fred.stlouisfed.org
I combined the above ideas and drew a green line staying in the current bullish trend channel. I drew a red line showing a delayed bearish reaction after a yield curve inversion. Recessions usually follow 3-22 months after a yield curve inversion. The red line shows a drop to a support line by 2021 and then a rally in anticipation of a new economic cycle.