Starbucks: The selling isn't over.Starbucks is being under heavy selling pressure since the start of September having fallen over -12% since its All Time High. This is not alarming for long term investors as the rise since July 2018 has been extremely aggressive (that aggressive that the Monthly chart is still bullish with RSI = 67.474, MACD = 8.570, Highs/Lows = 8.7721), but the selling isn't over yet.
According to its long term set up since 2012, the price always touches the MA50 on the 1W chart (illustrated with blue) after a market peak. Currently that is at 77.50, within the 81.65 - 73.65 range made after the % decline of the last 2 ATH falls. We expect that to be the Demand Zone for the stock and is where we are turning into long term buyers again towards a target value above 100.
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Starbucks
Starbucks Moving Towards The Previous HighLast post: August 7th 2019. See chart .
Review: Price gapped up, and started to pull back.
Update: Price filled around 50% of the gap and has started to rise again.
Conclusion: If the bulls can continue to have control then we should see a break of the previous high soon.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Give us the thumbs up if you share our sentiments!
Sublime Trading
Starbucks Trying To Fill The GapLast post: July 28th 2019. See chart .
Review: Price gapped up, showing strength to the upside.
Update: Price has pulled back and has filled half of the gap.
Conclusion: If this pullback has already found support then we want to see if price will break and close above the previous high and $100 round number.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Give us the thumbs up if you share our sentiments!
Sublime Trading
Starbucks Gaps UpLast post: July 13th 2019. See chart.
Review: Price was trending up nicely.
Update: Due to earnings, price has gapped up showing further strength.
Conclusion: We want to see if the gap will be filled or whether price continues to create new all-time highs
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Give us the thumbs up if you share our sentiments!
Sublime Trading
Starbucks Is Moving Full Steam Ahead!Last post: July 3rd 2019. See chart .
Review: Price was in a nice up moving trend.
Update: Price has continued to head higher since.
Conclusion: This stock should present a nice trading opportunity on the next breakout.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Give us the thumbs up if you share our sentiments!
Sublime Trading
Starbucks Shooting Higher!Last post: June 20th 2019. See chart .
Review: Price was trending up nicely showing a nice bullish candle last month.
Update: Price has since broken above a previous high.
Conclusion: As we have broken above a previous high, price is looking strong and creating new all-time highs.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Give us the thumbs up if you share our sentiments!
Sublime Trading
Starbucks Flying High!This stock is featuring for the first time on our TradingView blogs.
Current setup: Price is trending well and continues to look strong based on the monthly timeframe.
Conclusion: As long as price continues to create higher highs and higher lows on the daily timeframe, we should continue to see this stock remain bullish.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Give us the thumbs up if you share our sentiments!
Sublime Trading
Starbucks - How long will it stay overbought? Using Fibonacci retracement: SBUX next resistance is $85.75 .
If we brake above this line with high volume, it confirms the extended bull trend; meaning we could spend some more time in overbought conditions.
RSI and OBV confirm strong uptrend since July 2018. Check weekly time-frame for a clear view.
SBUX August bear vertical: sell 72.5 and buy the 85 callThis trade is 43 deltas negative and can be done for a credit of 9.01. Best case profit of 901 is achieved below the stake of the sold call of 72.5 and the worst case loss is a loss of 349 per contract above the strike of the bought call, 85. There is technical support at 75 -- this is why the written call strike is below 75.
SBUX has a whopping high PE of 30; during the trade war debacle this is outrageous. Lots of growth in SBUX has come from store growth in China. In Q1 it opened 3,700 stores, and can now be found in 10 new cities — totaling 158 Chinese cities. As more money is being poured into Chinese expansion, however, competition is growing. Luckin’ is expanding throughout China; coffees at Luckin’ cost 30 percent less than those from the American competition.
Also, if there is a macroeconomic downturn, people will cut their expenses on luxury goods, like $8 cups of coffee. This is a fundamental issue SBUX will have to face. August expiry follows SBUX's earnings report which will begin to indicate the suffering from the consequences of the trade war.
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SBUX - Starbucks. Possible Short Setup.Possible short setup on SBUX, looking entry between 786-886 (highlighted in orange) or 1 line.
Don't forget to check the weekly Maxx Momentum to see if we have bearish divergence coupled with loss of momentum.
If SBUX breaks the white trend I have on the chart I believe that the targets levels I have are more likely to get tested.
Maxx <3
SBUX could break outGrowth in China
SBUX same store sale are expected to increase over the next few years as China's middle class doubles, but are currently flat to slightly negative.
In spite of same-store sales in China falling, SBUX revenue is up 20% in China due to the opening of new stores at a rate of one shop every 15 hours in China.
China has recently partnered with Alibaba to gain marketshare in the online delivery of coffee, but there remains some competition with the first Chinese coffee unicorn partnering with Tencent for delivery services and customer analytics.
Overall Growth
On average, same-store sales are only increasing at a pitiful 3%, but is expected to remain positive for the foreseeable future.
Current Valuation
Relative to the market, SBUX is undervalued. A PE of 24 or so would be more ideal, which would is 33% higher than it's current PE of 18. Assuming current expectations and earnings growth remains above 10%, that would add another 10% on a PE of 24 next year, putting my PT at about $88, and near around $100 by the Jan 2020 options expiration.
Given 9/33 analysts have a rating of HOLD, 14/33 analysts have a rating of BUY, and 10/33 analysts have a rating of STRONG BUY, with 0/33 analysts have a rating of SELL, I think SBUX will grow into its industries average PE or a bit higher at around 24.
SBUX is on the verge of breaking above it's bear trend into a bullish one.
2020 Jan 17, Strike $75 calls could have an upside of 2,000% ($1 to $20+) if the break above it's bear trend occurs in the next month or so and it's quarter to quarter upward trend is sustained into the long-term.
$SBUX Short Term Trading IdeaStarbucks has been trading in an ascending channel since mid June.
Blue line is a long term resistance, there is an opportunity for some small profits in a short period of time.
Also, Fundamentally there is the up coming pumpkin spice / holiday season which could give a boost to the stock.