Get started

Statistical

My EURUSD Sells update after FOMC meeting !! - Who's holding ??EURUSD Weekly Outlook (19/09/2024): Slight Bearish Bias The EURUSD pair appears to be leaning towards a bearish bias this week, driven by several key macroeconomic factors and market dynamics. Let’s break down the main drivers shaping this outlook: 1. US Federal Reserve’s Hawkish Stance The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting is in sharp focus, with markets anticipating a potential reaffirmation of its "higher-for-longer" interest rate policy. Recent commentary and data suggest that inflation is still a concern in the U.S., and the Fed remains vigilant in maintaining a restrictive policy stance. The hawkish outlook for US rates bolsters the USD, placing pressure on EURUSD. Expectations for future rate hikes or at least prolonged elevated rates support the dollar, as the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Europe continues to widen in favor of the USD. 2. European Central Bank (ECB) Dovish Tilt Contrasting with the Fed, the ECB has shown signs of softening its hawkish tone. Last week, the ECB decided on what many view as a "dovish hike," raising rates but signaling that the peak of the hiking cycle may be near. The Eurozone's economic growth outlook is deteriorating, with concerns over a recession in key economies like Germany. This dovish stance is weighing on the euro, as markets are pricing in fewer rate hikes going forward. With interest rate differentials playing a crucial role in FX markets, this is a key bearish driver for EURUSD. 3. Eurozone Economic Weakness Recent economic data from the Eurozone has been disappointing. Manufacturing activity remains sluggish, and service sector growth has shown signs of stalling. Germany, the bloc’s largest economy, is particularly concerning, with its manufacturing PMI in contraction territory for months. Furthermore, rising energy costs could add pressure on European economies, potentially reigniting inflationary concerns but also hindering growth. This weaker growth outlook could deter investors from taking long positions in the euro. 4. US Economic Resilience On the other hand, the U.S. economy continues to show resilience. Robust labor market figures, strong consumer spending, and better-than-expected GDP data indicate that the U.S. economy is outperforming the Eurozone. This contrast in economic performance provides further support for the USD. Moreover, the U.S. bond market continues to offer attractive yields relative to European bonds. Higher U.S. Treasury yields, especially on the long end of the curve, are a key factor driving demand for the dollar. 5. Geopolitical Risks & Energy Concerns Geopolitical tensions, particularly surrounding the war in Ukraine and ongoing disputes over energy supplies in Europe, pose an additional downside risk for the euro. While energy prices have stabilized in recent months, any renewed supply disruptions as Europe heads into the winter season could reignite concerns over inflation and economic stability in the region. If energy prices surge again, it could lead to further economic strain in the Eurozone, potentially pushing EURUSD lower. Technical Outlook From a technical perspective, EURUSD is currently testing key support levels around 1.0650–1.0700. A sustained break below these levels could open the door for a move towards the 1.0500 region, especially if the dollar continues to strengthen on Fed-related optimism. On the upside, resistance lies near the 1.0800–1.0850 zone. Bulls would need to see a clear catalyst, such as dovish Fed signals or improved Eurozone data, to challenge these levels. Conclusion Given the hawkish Fed, dovish ECB, and weaker Eurozone economic data, EURUSD is likely to maintain a bearish bias this week. Traders should keep an eye on key U.S. data releases and any unexpected geopolitical developments that could impact market sentiment. My personal Key levels to watch: - Support: 1.0650, 1.0500 - Resistance: 1.0800, 1.0850
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
Still holding AUDUSD sells - Who's with me ?AUDUSD is likely to maintain a slightly bearish bias for the remainder of the week due to a combination of fundamental factors: 1. China’s Economic Slowdown: Australia’s economy is heavily tied to China due to its exports of raw materials like iron ore and coal. Recent weak economic data from China, including softer industrial production and ongoing concerns about its property market, have weighed on commodity currencies like the Australian dollar. 2. US Dollar Strength: The USD has remained strong, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer. While the Fed is not expected to raise rates this week, the ongoing resilience in US economic data, particularly in the labor market and retail sales, is keeping the USD in demand. 3. RBA’s Dovish Outlook: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has adopted a more cautious tone recently, with inflationary pressures easing slightly and domestic economic growth showing signs of moderation. This has reduced market expectations of further rate hikes, weakening AUD. 4. Commodity Prices: Softness in commodity prices, particularly in key Australian exports such as iron ore, has added downside pressure to the AUD. Global risk sentiment remains fragile, and lower commodity demand amid concerns about global growth, especially in China, has further dampened the outlook for the Australian economy. These factors suggest a continuation of bearish pressure on AUDUSD, although potential rebounds in risk sentiment or unexpected shifts in central bank policy could provide short-term relief for the pair.
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
1
A Merry Bitcoin Xmas 12 statistics for 12 historical Decembers: December Marks pretty pivotable points in Bitcoin history. Typically the 19th-31st of December marks some decent moves, with either a slight pause for continuation or a major reversal. 12 statistics for 12 historical Decembers: - AVG. Overall Returns +15.26% - AVG. Positive Returns +52.73% - AVG. Negative Returns -28.45% - 7/12 saw Red candle closes, 5/12 saw Green. (2023 will likely be 6/12) - 6/12 saw January close lower than Dec, whilst 6/12 did not. - 4/12 we never saw Dec low prices again. - 4/12 proceeded with a Jan-Feb monthly retraces (didn't close < Dec), whilst 4/12 continued higher. - 4/12 saw lower prices proceeding more than 6 months. - 3/12 were in mid bull markets (wave 3) - 2/12 marked ATH's and to date 2/12 marked ATL's. - 1/12 saw sideways action for 4 consecutive months - 1/12 marked false low reversal signal (COVID) In summary, for the 13th December close given the timing of cycles, this does mark a midterm turning point between cycles. Generally, at this point, it is more probable for a slight -25% retrace before continuation. Statistics on lower Dec ratios (<4/12) would suggest that in Q1 2024 we may just get the dip, but for how long will the Santa Rally continue? $48-50k high seems very likely but a close < FWB:31K in the coming months on the retrace would prove something else is at play. Sorry for rez, here is a better screenshot
INDEX:BTCUSD
by LiquidMafia
Dax Daily: 13th of May 2019Welcome to a new trading week. After the initial chop on Friday, the price descended towards the support level at 12036, which was well respected on the first attempt. During the second retest, the level was slightly broken. Following was the entry of buyers who took the price all the way to retest the resistance of 12 194 where Dax closed the week. Over the weekend, we open with a really significant gap. Important zones Resistance: 12 141 Support: trend line Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application (which you can find at ftmo.com/en/statistical-app) Macroeconomic releases NIL Today’s session hypothesis After price broke the trendline support and taking out the Fridays low, we can expect to test the trendline from the opposite side as resistance and continuation lower to approximately 11864.0 with potential filling of the gap from 3rd of April 2019.
EUREX:FDAX1!Short
by FTMO
EURUSD H4 SELL: Statistically approved down-trend continuationHello, world. This page is overlooking a statistical analysis, and I maintain work of a group of robots on Forex and Crypto. Today we have another call for EURUSD. As you could see, we already have a short order at 1.14726. Currently, the same robot made another shot for a downward movement. From its perspective, we can shortly spot a sequel. If we don't, we will close both orders in a nice profit from selling on high. The robot's order: EURUSD SELL 1.13891 StopLoss 1.14203 TakeProfit 1.12799 Keep your flight safe, and maintain strong risk management! -- You can see our Crypto trading robot live at the free signal: www.mql5.com
Short
by siriustrees
EURUSD SELL H4: Statistical, Counter-TrendHello, world. This profile is focused on a statistical analysis, and our robot found out there is a 60% probability that we will reverse currently on EURUSD. While candlestick patterns may show a good trending plot and we have support at 1.14591, if we look on data, there is a great possibility to reverse, as the robot sees a bull trap here last 2 days, and a consolidation which turns out to a decline. It opened order: EURUSD 1.14726 SL 1.15043 TP 1.13621 Enjoy your sailing, and keep stable risk management!
Short
by siriustrees
BTCUSD H1 SHORT: Short-term downside trendHello, world. As this page focus on a statistical design for trading, our robot shows there is currently a lack of demand at BTCUSD. It oversees in a 60% of such scenarios its lead for a short-term down movement in 2018. Keep stoploss tight as in the wrong case we could see a fast alteration. The robot's opened order: BTCUSD SELL 3655 StopLoss 3707 TakeProfit 3504 Keep a smooth sailing, and hold on good risk management! -- You can look for our robot's live trading at a free signal: www.mql5.com
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by siriustrees
BTCUSD LONG H1: ROLLBACK TO 3900, statistical counter-trendHello, world. This page is overviewing quantitative analysis, and I manage several robots trading crypto right now. BTCUSD is currently looking bearish, meanwhile, from a statistical point of view, it should have another push-up today, heading towards 3900, until we see any other continuation. Our robot has opened a buy stop position at 3762. BTCUSD BUY 3762 StopLoss 3709 TakeProfit 3915 Have a safe flight, and take care about risk management! -- We have all our trades live at educational robot profile: www.mql5.com
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by siriustrees
2
BTCUSD Short H1 for trend-followingHello, yesterday drop came unexpected, we just had to keep a stoploss tight, and fix drawdown at 3790 levels. Today, two of our robots opened about the same short order on BTCUSD. It means there are double chances and we distribute risk management properly. This time it's a trend-following strategy, where we catch a wave which is not finished yet. Open a sell order in between 3720 - 3690. BTCUSD SELL 3720-3690 StopLoss: 3929 TakeProfit: 3444 When the price comes to 3650, move stoploss to an entry point. Remember to keep your money management for the whole account. Don't take a risk larger then you could lose.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by siriustrees
2
Bitcoin long on H1: follows counter-trending approachHello, world. This page follows a statistical approach to a currency trading. I personally manage 6 robots on a master account which trades crypto and fiat currencies. I will redirect preferred trades to TradingView as an endeavor of collaboration with the community and bringing awareness to a data-mining community of traders. Wish you all the best takes in this journey! -- The first our trade is the bearish trap. According to a robot's hypothesis, BTCUSD will recover soon, and it placed a trade on a scalping position in the very base of the last panic bar. You may place an order according to your money management strategy, it could be anywhere between 3850-3890. BTCUSD Long position: 3850-3890 StopLoss: 3792 TakeProfit: 4020
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by siriustrees
S&P 500 - Long Term Bear TrendThis chart represent the bull and bear markets in the S&P 500 during the last two decades. According to this analysis and based on statistical inference, we could have started the bear trend that might during until March 2020. On average bear markets length approximately 18,5 Months ((28+17+11 )/3) and depreciate close to 41% ((50%+58%+15%)/3) since the life time high (from 2940 to 1735). On the other hand, completed the depreciation period, the bull market reveal a huge potential providing on average 129% gains ((103%+221%+63%)/3) with a duration of 56 Months ((63+74+31)/3). For active investors some caution is recommended with the crystallization of gains, while some opportunities arise from the correction.
SP:SPXShort
by Andrepaz
2