Get started

Statisticalprobability

Why EURUSD is Plummeting and How You Can Take Advantage of ItI am adopting a bearish bias on EUR/USD and will leverage probabilities derived from statistical and historical data to position myself for short trades. By analyzing past market trends and current economic indicators, I aim to make informed decisions that enhance my trading success. Key Fundamentals Supporting a Bearish Outlook: - Interest Rate Differentials: The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to maintain higher interest rates, which strengthens the USD against the EUR, especially as the European Central Bank (ECB) may consider rate cuts in response to economic challenges. - Economic Performance: Recent economic data indicates that the Eurozone is facing significant headwinds, with disappointing growth figures that negatively impact market sentiment. - Market Sentiment: Current market sentiment leans bearish towards the euro, with many traders already positioned short. This collective positioning could lead to further downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair. These elements provide a solid foundation for my bearish outlook, making it an opportune moment to enter short positions. 1W: HOURLY ENTRY: If you require additional clarification, or wish to share your thoughts, don’t hesitate to drop a comment below!
Short
by Jasminex1x2
1
SPX Key $ Levels | 70%+ Accuracy! | WednesdayNew price targets for Sep 25 using Statistics and Data to drive a 70%+ historical accuracy. Topics: - Today's Targets Overall we use stats and data pulled from a wide array of TradingView indicators and scripts so that I can have as much data as possible - even if it's unstructured or uncorrelated data. I then use AI and SOP's to systematically calculate a weekly and daily framework. My predictions are never 100% but ALL of them are mathematically proven to be 70%+ accurate historically or I wouldn't use them. Most indicators I use on my Data Dashboard chart has the stats in their associated boxes that I show during the recording if you'd like to verify yourself. Please leave me feedback as I am new to creating content and would like to improve. Personally I use these targets in combination with ICT Concepts to trade. Nothing I say is Financial Advice - Previous performance does not guarantee future success.
CME_MINI:MESZ2024Long
by DIY_Trades
EUR/USD Forecast: Bearish Bias Likely to Continue – Key Drivers!EUR/USD Forecast: Bearish Bias Likely to Continue – Key Drivers for the Upcoming Weeks (20/09/2024) As we move further into September, the EUR/USD pair faces a potential downside with a slightly bearish bias expected for this week and the next. In this analysis, we’ll break down the fundamental and technical drivers behind this forecast and explore the key factors that could influence EUR/USD price action. Traders and investors alike will want to stay informed about these crucial elements affecting the euro-to-dollar exchange rate. 1. US Dollar Strength Continues to Pressure EUR/USD One of the primary factors driving the EUR/USD pair’s bearish outlook is the ongoing strength of the U.S. dollar. The greenback continues to benefit from a strong domestic economy, leading to increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for an extended period. Recent data and statements from Fed officials signal confidence in the resilience of the U.S. economy, suggesting that inflationary pressures may persist longer than expected. For EUR/USD, this creates a downward trajectory, as a stronger U.S. dollar weighs heavily on the exchange rate. As traders adjust their portfolios to reflect the higher yields available in U.S. markets, the demand for the dollar grows, pushing EUR/USD lower. Key SEO keywords: EUR/USD forecast, US dollar strength, Federal Reserve policy, EUR/USD price action, interest rate hike, inflationary pressures. 2. Eurozone Economic Weakness Adding to Bearish Pressure on EUR/USD On the other side of the EUR/USD equation, the Eurozone continues to face significant economic challenges. Recent data shows that the region's growth has been slower than expected, with inflation remaining persistently high. The European Central Bank (ECB) has adopted a cautious approach to raising interest rates, balancing the need to control inflation against the backdrop of sluggish industrial activity and weak consumer sentiment. This dovish stance from the ECB, compared to the more aggressive Federal Reserve, further supports the bearish bias in EUR/USD. As the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Europe widens, the euro becomes less attractive, leading to downward pressure on the exchange rate. Key SEO keywords: Eurozone economic weakness, ECB policy, interest rate differential, euro inflation, industrial slowdown, euro exchange rate. 3. Interest Rate Differentials Favoring the US Dollar Interest rate differentials between the U.S. Federal Reserve and the ECB continue to favor the U.S. dollar. As the Fed maintains a hawkish stance, hinting at further rate hikes, the ECB remains cautious, primarily due to the fragility of the Eurozone economy. This divergence in central bank policies has become a key factor in the EUR/USD bearish outlook. A widening interest rate gap is a bearish signal for EUR/USD traders, as higher yields in the U.S. attract capital away from the euro. This ongoing dynamic is expected to persist into the following weeks, continuing to favor the USD over the euro. Key SEO keywords: Interest rate differentials, Fed vs ECB policy, hawkish Federal Reserve, EUR/USD downside risk, capital flows. 4. Geopolitical Tensions Adding Risk for the Euro Another factor weighing on the euro is the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, particularly related to energy issues and tensions in Eastern Europe. Any escalation in these areas could undermine confidence in the euro, as investors seek safe-haven assets such as the U.S. dollar. Given the current global landscape, this could add to the bearish pressure on EUR/USD in the weeks ahead. Key SEO keywords: Geopolitical tensions, euro risks, energy crisis, Eastern Europe tensions, EUR/USD safe-haven flows, euro downside risk. 5. Technical Analysis – EUR/USD Testing Key Support Levels From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD chart shows a bearish trend beginning to form. The pair is approaching key support levels, and if these are broken, we could see a sharper decline in the EUR/USD exchange rate. Recent price action suggests that resistance levels are holding firm, indicating limited upside potential for the euro in the short term. Traders should watch for a potential breakdown of these key support areas, which could signal a further bearish move for the EUR/USD pair in the upcoming weeks. Key SEO keywords: EUR/USD technical analysis, key support levels, resistance levels, EUR/USD chart, bearish trend. Conclusion – EUR/USD Bearish Bias Expected to Continue In conclusion, several fundamental and technical factors are aligning to suggest a continued bearish bias for EUR/USD over the next couple of weeks. The strength of the U.S. dollar, economic challenges in the Eurozone, interest rate differentials, geopolitical tensions, and bearish technical setups all point toward further downside risk for the euro-to-dollar exchange rate. Traders and investors should closely monitor these drivers as they make their trading decisions in the weeks ahead. As always, staying updated on key economic data releases and central bank announcements will be crucial for navigating EUR/USD price action. Key SEO keywords: EUR/USD forecast, bearish bias, EUR/USD key drivers, US dollar strength, Eurozone economic outlook, ECB policy, Fed interest rates, EUR/USD price action.
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
Maximum Hypothesis TestI still believe Tesla is a great company with a lot of future ahead. However, seeing how aggressive price action has been lately, it would be wise to consider taking some profits. This would allow for the trade to keep going, and the previous winning trades will have room to grow into strong investments. It's unlikely that price will continue to uptrend in this manner, but it's great to finally see some life signs out of this company. I'm sure their future will be bright, but as of now we must stay realistic and expect price to uptrend in a normal manner and not in a bubble like form. I believe it would be best to lay back and wait for more buying opportunities and look to dollar cost average the dip. If price does keep increasing then the unliquidated stocks should keep capturing returns and if it drops then dollar cost averaging would create a great scenario for catching a possible long term uptrend.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by DarkMessiah777
NVIDIA updateRecently, test of finding a top turned out to be a success. However, after entering into an uptrend on lower timeframes, price had a sudden drop while it was nearing all-time highs. This puts in risk the first trade of the referenced idea at risk. The reason we get a sell signal is because: The recent raise in price action was not enough to overcome the downward movement of the correction. However, the 25 MA usually works as a key support-resistance. Therefore, it's currently being used as support, but if this support fails its likely price will return to the current lows where the 25 MA would most likely become resistance and would test price action before determining to create a new low or continue an uptrend. The best movement for technical uptrend health is a slight correction into current lows before forming a new uptrend. This movement will also be important for the SP:SPX as NASDAQ:NVDA holds a quite large share of the index at the moment. This could be the formations of the downtrend brought by the cyclicality of uptrends and downtrends. As it was mentioned in the referenced idea.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by DarkMessiah777
4
A cyclical historyWe have all heard that the economy works in cycles, and so does the market. But what does this truly mean? Has anyone actually been able to show you where you can see these cycles occur? Well, here is a great graph that will show you how. By looking at the 6-month time frame, the percentages of stocks above the 20 daily MA, you are achieving 2 things. Seeing price action at the timeframe used to declare technical recessions Seeing the percentage of stocks in a short term uptrend or downtrend as the complement is also true Here it's quite easy to see how an important world event unfolded with a clear, repeatable pattern. When the percentage oscillates heavily, it allows for many technical resets, causing a healthy uptrend when the percentage returns to above 50% by the end of the semester. Another patter is that after a period of over-performance, a period of under-performance is followed and vice versa. When looking at world events, just remember at the end of the day we are all a number in a larger scheme. And the laws of statistics will end up controlling our outcomes, as there must be balance in all binomial systems. Even when biases can be present in distributions, the more we generalize and zoom out, the more we can see the statistical convergences in human behavior. At the end of the day, our lives are influenced by fractals, some of which we are not even aware exist.
MEducation
by DarkMessiah777
How to read mean returns (Expand the indicator)Mean returns is a trend detection and overextension indicator. It oscillates around the value of 0. The mean return line in reality is the orange one as well as the blue one. The difference is in the number of data points into the past that they consider. Since the value of those lines is the expected value of the returns in period t, then if it's over 0 the expectation is that returns will be positive, as previously the price has been trending higher. The opposite being true as well. Meanwhile, the red and green line represent the expected upwards and expected downwards returns. That means you only take the expected value for the days in which the return was positive or negative accordingly. Therefore, if the mean returns are over the expected upwards returns the price is likely to be overextended, and vice versa. Other adjustments were made to consider the current candle. This code will remain private, as it took a lot of effort to invent. I hope you are able to understand the math. If you can't, I hope this at least allowed you to read the meaning of the indicator through this.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by DarkMessiah777
1
SOLUSD: Snapping Back to $210 | 70.70% Probability!BINANCE:SOLUSD has been drawing a lot of attention in the crypto space in the past few days due to its integration with NASDAQ:PYPL Let's have a technical analysis breakdown: BINANCE:SOLUSD According to my Free Probability Indicator , There's a 70.00% chance it could climb back over $210 and beyond, which is pretty much encouraging! If you're thinking about trading LINK, here's what you should consider: Entry: Wait for clear signs that the price is going up again. Once you're confident the trend is changing, consider buying LINK. I'm currently looking at the 8H Equilibrium to get positioned. Exit: To protect yourself from drawdowns, consider setting a "trailing stop-loss." This will automatically trigger a sell order if the price starts dropping again after you buy, securing your running profits. Risk Management: Ensure you're not risking more money than you can afford to lose. Only invest what you're comfortable with and consider how much you're willing to lose if things don't go as planned. This isn't financial advice, just some insights to help you make informed decisions. Always do your own research before investing in anything.
BINANCE:SOLUSDLong
by Fractalyst
1
Nasdaq average returns (before and after) ThanksgivingBased on the observation that US equity markets tend to perform well heading into Thanksgiving, we decided to take a proper look at the figures. And it turns out, the Wednesday ahead of Thanksgiving tends to average the strongest positive returns of 0.54% with an 80.6% win rate. The Nasdaq followed its seasonal tendency to rise on Monday, and closed at a 22-month high above 16k. Whilst Tuesday tends to be a down day, it has risen 52.8% of the time which explains the positive median return. But in a nutshell, the Nasdaq tends to rally into Thanksgiving and weaken the following Monday. And with RSI 2 and RSI 14 overbought alongside hype of strong Nvidia earnings, bulls may want to err on the side of caution next week - especially if we see a strong rally on Wednesday.
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by CityIndex
The most common malpractice in all of Trading: Back-testingGiven ANY in- or out-of-sample time series, including purely random, synthetic data, anyone can generate (inflate) ANY Sharpe Ratio by repeatedly applying different trading or investment strategies to the same time series sample! By definition, purely random data has no discernible structure. Consequently, no method can exist to predict such a sequence - I.e., Sharpe Ratio = 0 must hold in all instances. Yet, ... See main graph! In the past It has been shown just how easy it is to generate Sharpe Ratios of 4, 5 or even >6, on any data, including on purely random, synthetic time series data when in fact, the only possible value in those instances should be S.R. = 0. As a matter of fact, this misleading (self-defeatists?) practice is so common and wide spread in finance and trading that the American Statistical Association considers it "unethical" (American Statistical Association ). (More importantly, it is a remarkably expensive way to fool oneself.) The above stems from applying the same rejection threshold for the null hypothesis under multiple testing will grossly underestimate the probability of obtaining a false positive. Unlike in the "other sciences", there is no "replication crisis" in finance or trading, simply because such checks don't even exist there - since those would be impossible to carry out. (Is that why the only two kinds of academic papers which never get revised or retracted are written in the fields of Finance and Theology?) The bottom line; In the common case of testing a trading or investment system, given a set of out-of-sample time series, one MUST increase the rejection threshold for the null hypothesis in proportion to the number of times ("peeks") such tests are carried out! (Good luck fooling yourself that way!) Anything less is just simple curve-fitting! For more in-depth explorations: Marcos López de Prado, Michael J. Lewis codemacher.com
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by Nemo_Confidat
5
Is Volatility the New Normal? Hi I'm Goose and I'm apparently obsessed with the VIX this week. I would say I've reached a point of borderline stalker, going through historical data, working up average all time range theories, and ultimately writing a script that will give me a bar count inside and outside of a date and price range and the percentage of time during that period that the VIX has gone wild. I used this script compare these statistics across the daily chart in different sections of time. Now, I did this because I am anticipating a return to mean with the VIX any moment now. I'm tapping my fingers and getting impatient. And not because I'm waiting for a rally, I mean, a rally would be cool, but because this has gone on long enough really. So I decided to compare the 2008 Crash historical data with the more recent Covid data. If you haven't read the in's and out's, the timeline and the reasons why, go do that right now. Or just watch The Big Short a couple of times for the cliff notes. But for the sake of this chart, I marked up some of the important moments during what is now known as the Housing Crisis/Great Recession. Theoretically I could have made arguments to drag this period out to 2014, but comparably it makes little sense and frankly, even further drives my theory, so I ended the period when the market had recovered its 50% losses from pre crash peaks. Keep in mind, current markets recovered and S&P Futures made a new high in just under 6 months from the Covid Crash. So this is already an unfair comparison. And that is kind of my point. Comparable factors like unemployment and U.S. Homeownership are actually contradictory for the most part if you omit the summer of 2020. And if you're in the group, as I am, that believes low unemployment numbers promote higher inflation numbers, then we could argue inflation begun, albeit transitory, in May and July of 2018 when unemployment dropped below 4% and really got a foothold in 2019. All it needed was a supply chain interruption. And I know Covid takes the blame for that, but that had started also. China trade, pine beetles, metal shortages, coffee , etc... So when Covid whooped the employment numbers 10 points from March at 4.4%, to April at 14.7%, it basically created a sling shot effect with equities. Come August of 2020 when those numbers rapidly dropped to 8.4% we made brand new highs. And within a year we had dropped back to where we started in the upper 4% range. I know I'm on a tangent, but why is this important? Because in the Covid Market, we turned those numbers around in 1 year, as opposed to the 5 years it took to recover AFTER the end of the Recession and its 5 year recovery. Soooo... That's why I'm not counting that period, and why I'm calling out VIX on is behavior. So lets get to my point. Is the new normal volatile AF ? As it currently stands, and based on a range of $10-$20 dollars which I determined to be fair visually for the initial part of this work up, the VIX has spent 5% more days above the standard range. Now 5% isn't a deal breaker. We can find dramatic headlines that will excuse random volatility but I will argue we are at a crossroads. If we continue to stay above $20, we risk having to work hard and longer to get that figure back down. Remember calculating your GPA , but in reverse. Eventually the shock and awe of a +$30 VIX won't induce the same FOMO reaction and things may get really weird. When VIX goes into the new year, the powers that be will need to reign her in to avoid decoupling on any given Wednesday instead of just low liquidity holidays. My theory actually goes further down the rabbit hole when I narrowed down a true 50% average range, wait for it.... $10 - $16.75! YES! The overall, from inception, average high of range sits at $16.75. And pop on the tin foil hat because with that range, both the Housing Crisis/Great Recession AND the Covid Market are sitting at 91% above range. I checked that 3 times to be sure and I did not include that in the frame of this chart as it already had enough scribbling all over it, but if you explore to the bottom of the chart you will see a smashed up mess of it. So if your listening Market Makers, shut it down, shut it down now. And if that is what you are setting up to do as I have already speculated in a previous work up, well done! Keep it up. I know for a fact that the VIX is heavily relied upon by many successful traders in many different products for directional bias, let's not ruin it shall we... On this chart you will see the table bar counts for inside and outside of price range for the specified period as well as the total bar count and the percentage of bars outside of that range. That means up OR down so the period between the Recession and Covid has 12% outside of range, but you will notice that it goes below the range as well. When the price range was moved down beneath the lows to $8, it lowered the percentage by 3 points. I have also labeled some fun facts that occurred during the historical period to show a bit about why I choose the dates that I did. Leave a comment for a heated debate, or to tell me how cool I am, or that I'm just a silly Goose. en.wikipedia.org www.statista.com data.bls.gov
TVC:VIX
by goofoffgoose
EURUSD...Last week + projections!We finally broke out of that consolidation zone, and JUST when it started looked like the Euro was going to start free-falling...my stochastic started giving me strong buy signals...Right at the end of the week too, which sucked because the best entries to this upturn we've seen this past week came on Thursday and Friday 🤬.... Luckily, by Monday, the r-squared value of the low pivot trend line (see chart) had hit above .7 suggesting a very strong correlation between the low pivot line and the down fractal values (price reversal); easy entry (1.25 ATR stoploss). The best exit came Tuesday night EST, right before the London session. I got out when my both stochastic values dropped below 20. The next two buy signals came after price crossed the low pivot line once again which by now had a .89 r-squared correlation. Price traveled all the way up to it's current peak, which was confirmed with an up fractal two bars later on the 1hr chart. At this point both pivot lines have r-squared values over .85, and they run pretty much parallel to one another, suggesting that price has formed a very strong upward channel, and that price is most likely headed back down to the low pivot line, we'll see!
Short
by NeoDaNomad
UAA longUAA long Under Armour, Inc. is engaged in the development, marketing and distribution of branded performance apparel, footwear and accessories for men, women and youth. The Company's segments include North America, consisting of the United States and Canada; Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA); Asia-Pacific; Latin America, and Connected Fitness. Its products are sold across the world and worn by athletes at all levels, from youth to professional, on playing fields around the globe, as well as by consumers with active lifestyles. The Company sells its branded apparel, footwear and accessories in North America through its wholesale and direct to consumer channels. As of December 31, 2016, the Company had approximately 151 factory house stores in North America primarily located in outlet centers throughout the United States. In addition, the Company distributes its products in North America through third-party logistics providers with primary locations in Canada, New Jersey and Florida
NYSE:UAALong
by fade_the_vol
Statistical Probability of A Price GuessA price guess has 33% to be correct because the price has only three directions. The price of a security may trade higher, may trade in a narrow range, or trade lower. Thank you for reading! Greenfield Disclosure: I am not a financial advisor. This is not a recommendation, not a representation, and not a solicitation. You should do your research and come to your own decision. Investment involves significant risks. You need to understand that you may lose your money. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Chart reading is subjective information.
NYSE:NIOEducation
by GreenfieldAnalysis
2
Dax daily: 31 Jul 2020Congratulations to all traders who went short with us yesterday. Another success to add to our analysis records. Just as we expected, Dax slipped away from the consolidation range and took a prudent southern direction right after the open. The momentum was rapid and the price pierced through two support levels. If you were aiming our target at 12 592, we congratulate you for a lovely 200 points of profit. Important zones Resistance: 12 494, 12 592 Support: 12 278, 12 151 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Dax shifted to the new territory after yesterday's sell-off and bounced off the support at 12 278. The disappointing print of German GDP was the movement catalyst and chances are the bearish momentum will prevail. The price is currently in between two S/R zones and might possibly stay there as Friday's session are usually slower. We anticipate the overnight gap to get closed.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO