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Statisticalprobability

Dax daily: 02 Sep 2019 Welcome to this first analysis of the month of September. Friday's session started by a relatively fast retest of our resistance zone at 11 899, which hasn't even slowed down the price momentum. The uptrend was seen until 15:00 when Dax corrected the bullish move by descending lower to retest the newly formed support at 11 899 which was our valid resistance at the beginning of the session. Dax closed in its upper range. Important zones Resistance: 12 037 Support: 11 868, 11 771 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 09:15 - 10:00 CEST - Eurozone PMIs Canada & USA - national holiday Today's session hypothesis Today's afternoon session might be slower than usual due to public holiday in the US and Canada. Morning session might be influenced by the series of PMI reports from the Eurozone. We also have an increased statistical probability for breaking Friday's high. We could see buyers jumping in at around 11 868 and if that scenario turns valid and the high will be broken, sellers are likely to correct the upside move at 12 037. Considering the fact we also have an increased probability of closing inside Friday's range, it is logical to focus our targets back into the range should the price get above or below the high/low from Friday.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 28 Aug 2019 Yesterday's high was broken out as yesterday's statistics hinted. There was no apparent resistance up till the 11 774 level which eventually stopped the bulls. The 11 678 zone functioned as a support level and the session was closed outside of the previous day range and this fulfilled the same statistical probability as well. Important zones Resistance: 11 774 Support: 11 678 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of closing inside of yesterday's session is 87% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Today we opened with a small gap which is already closed at the time of writing. The statistics suggest the price shouldn't get out of yesterday's range. The high from yesterday at 11 774 now serves as our resistance level. We are seeing a support level at 11 678. This zone is likely to be retested and we need to monitor the price action there. In case this support holds the price, we would like to see the breakout of the 11 774 resistance zone.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 27 Aug 2019 Monday's session started with a sharp upside move. As expected, sellers entered the market at our resistance level of 11 611 to correct the uprun, but not for long. The same scenario occurred once more at the following resistance zone of 11 645 which also didn't have long lasting. The 11 611 zone functioned as the support for another bullish push towards the end of the intraday session. Important zones Resistance: 11 707 Support: 11 561 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of breaking yesterday's high is 83% The statistical probability of closing outside of yesterday's session is 83% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Today we have a strong statistical probability of breaking yesterday's high. Right above this level, we have a nice resistance zone at 11 707 where we may anticipate seeing some bearish correction. Nevertheless, there is another strong card for the bullish sentiment as the statistics suggest the price is likely to close outside of yesterday's range. As always, we advise all traders to be vigilant and have a clear trade plan.
EUREX:FDAX1!Long
by FTMO
Dax daily: 26 Aug 2019 Friday's session started relatively innocent. As per our expectations, Dax descended to hit our support zone of 11 759 and closed the gap. We also saw buyers attempting to regain control before the storm hit the markets. News had it that China retaliated on the US import taxes and to no surprise, Trump's swift reaction on Twitter caused even more havoc when he lifted the existing tariffs even more (including services industry) and ordered american companies to withdraw from China. Dax bears started to jump out of the window and retested the subject S/R zone after the initial plunge. Next bearish target was the following support at 11 560 which slowed down the price for a few hours just to drop even lower to close the week at 11 532. Important zones Resistance: 11 645, 11 707, 11 611 Support: 11 404 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 10:00 CEST - EUR - German Ifo Business Climate All-day - G7 Meeting in France Today's session hypothesis For today, we estimate to see some correction of Friday's downfall. Ideally, the price could reach 11 611 - 11 645 levels which could work well for sellers to take the price towards the support around 11 404. Beware of today's news, especially some G7 Meeting after-tremors.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 21 Aug 2019 Tuesday's session was a bit odd from our point of view. Dax initially descended to our support at 11 646, but rather than bullish correction we hoped for, price action rather slowed down. Dax then closed near it's intraday low and today we open with an ascending gap. Important zones Resistance: 11 691 Support: 11 560 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of breaking yesterday's low is 96% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Considering the very high probability for breaking yesterday's low, then all our short trades have a clear target. If yesterday's low gets broken, we can estimate a faster move towards 11 560 which is a really nice support level. Sellers are likely to step in around 11 691. Should Dax break yesterday's high, then the short hypothesis becomes invalid as the statistics suggest the breakout of both swings is as low as 7% only.
EUREX:FDAX1!Short
by FTMO
Dax daily: 14 Aug 2019 Dax started the day with the expected drop and breaking the previous day low, which had a statistical probability of 83%. There was a sudden price spike after 15:30 when Dax shot higher some 300 points based on Trump's tweets. After the dust settled, Dax slowed down and hasn't really gone anywhere for the rest of the session. Today's gap has already been closed. Important zones Resistance: 11 899, 12 031 Support: 11 660 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Wednesday's session could start with the correction of yesterday's move. Buyers are likely to enter around the support level of 11 660 and attempt to take the price higher towards 11 899 and close this gap finally. We also have 87% statistical probability of breaking yesterday's high or low, but considering the fact that low is distanced some 230 points and the normal daily range is 110 - 160 points, it makes sense to anticipate a breakout of yesterday's high.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 06 Aug 2019 Monday's session had an expected development. We first saw buyers taking the price slightly up, yet not able to retest the 11 823 level. Sellers took over and pushed Dax to the support zone of 11 657. It took some time for this to be broken to the downwards and bears dominated the intraday session until the close. Important zones Resistance: 12 031, 11 899, 11 8845 Support: 11 615 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Today's price opens with an ascending gap which could be closed and adequately find buyers at 11 615. We can then target our trades to retest yesterday's high and retest of the resistance zone of 11 845 - 11 899. If there are no significant buying pressures around 11 615, it is more likely that yesterday's low will be broken. As soon as that happens, buyers could shift things around to correct the fall and Dax would likely to oscillate and close inside yesterday's range.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 05 Aug 2019 Friday's session started with a slight downward movement which prevailed for the whole intraday session. We've had a bearish based bias and our hypothesis played out as expected. Today we open with a really big descending gap. Important zones Resistance: 12 031, 11 899, 11 823 Support: 11 657 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 16:00 CEST - USA - ISM Non-Manufacturing Today's session hypothesis Today we open with a 170 points sized gap which equals the range of a volatile day session. There was a row of really nice S/R levels formed. The first zone of our interest is the resistance at 11 823 which could be retested today. If sellers aren't strong enough, Dax could head towards 11 899 and close the gap. Buyers might appear around 11 657.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 31 Jul 2019 We welcome you by the last DAX analysis of the month. We expected a downside yesterday with lazy price action. It was pretty clear shortly after the open that the volatility was beyond laziness. The price sliced through the support of 12 368 like a knife and within two hours, Dax stretched its range to some 170 points. Today we open with an ascending gap. Important zones Resistance: 12 284, 12 195 Support: NIL Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of breaking yesterday's low is 83% Macroeconomic releases USA - 20:00 CEST - Federal Funds Rate + FOMC Statement USA - 20:30 CEST - FOMC Press Conference Today's session hypothesis We have a high probability of breaking yesterday's low and therefore all our short trades have a clearly defined target. Another good key for today's price estimation is the increased probability of Dax closing inside yesterday's range. Sellers could step in around 12 195, if not sooner. Some bullish powers can be anticipated after yesterday's low breakout.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 24 Jul 2019 Our Statistical Application did a great job again. As per the statistical probabilities, it was very likely that Dax would continue its upward move and so it happened. The price went up just to slow down at the resistance level of 12 380 and then went over the roof, making a strong upward momentum for the entire intraday trading. Important zones Resistance: 12 540, 12 576 Support: 12 437, 12 338 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of closing the gap is 69% The statistical probability of breaking yesterday's high is 90% Macroeconomic releases 09:15 - 10:00 CEST - Eurozone PMIs Today's session hypothesis Yesterday's session was very bullish. The statistics play for today's continuation as well. The combination of probabilities suggests we could retest 12 541. Another resistance we have lays around 12 576. The start of the session is great as well as the price drops slightly which is a positive key for us as the long trades have a better filling. Let's not forget that although we have a strong bullish confluence, the market might go its own way. Be careful around PMIs releases from Eurozone.
EUREX:FDAX1!Long
by FTMO
Dax daily: 18 Jul 2019 Yesterday's session was exemplary from the price action point of view. The descending trend line functioned as a resistance and the price bounced off that level. Bears were aggressive enough to create a strong momentum, pushing Dax lower till the session end. This strongly negative day was closed at 12 294. Important zones Resistance: 12 293, trend line Support: 12 189 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis This morning, Dax opened with a descending gap which is sized 94 points. No surprise that yesterday's bearish momentum prevailed and the priced gapped in the same direction. The probability of closing the gap today is relatively small. Although the price dropped down to touch the support zone of 12 189, it doesn't necessarily mean Dax can't continue even lower. We estimate the initial correction of yesterday's downfall followed by another bearish action.
EUREX:FDAX1!Short
by FTMO
Dax daily: 10 Jul 2019 Yesterday's session turned out to follow our hypothesis only partially. Dax started its decline towards 12 391, but buyers didn't use this level to enter the market. Following was a descend towards the second support zone in a row, laying at 12 326, yet this price wasn't reached and Dax reversed upwards. In the end, Dax closed approximately in the middle of its range. The support level of 12 391 functioned properly after a pullback at 2:30pm. Important zones Resistance: 12 500 Support: 12 326 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases USA - 20:00 CEST - FOMC Meeting Minutes Today's session hypothesis Today we have a very high statistical probability for closing the gap. We could also expect the resistance at 12 500 being retested and attracting sellers. Yesterday's high breakout has a probability of 64% . Another nice zone nearby is the support level at 12 326 where we might see a bullish correction. Also, we have a higher probability of 77% for closing inside yesterday's range.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 09 Jul 2019 Yesterday's session was very nice from our point of view. As we highlighted, Dax first went up to close the gap at the resistance level of 12 564. The price then reversed exemplarily and the high intra-day swing was formed as well. Today, Dax opens with a descending gap and so far, the momentum indicates the retest of the support level laying at 12 391. Important zones Resistance: 12 504 Support: 12 391, 12 329 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Right now, we are in the gap territory formed between 28 Jun and 01 Jul. For this reason, we anticipate a move towards 12 391 where we could find some buyers. If the support level of 12 391 doesn't hold bearish momentum, then another suitable buy zone is at 12 326. On the other hand, if bulls dominate the market from the beginning, it is likely the price will bounce off the 12 504 for some nice correction. If that doesn't happen, the probability of breaking yesterday's high is still least likely, with only 9% chance of this happening.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 04 Jul 2019 Welcome to the last analysis of this week. Tomorrow's analysis will be skipped due to a national holiday. Yesterday's statistics for breaking Tuesday's high was successfully passed. Dax rose all day and closed near its intra-day high. Today, we open with a smaller descending gap. Important zones Resistance: NIL Support: 12 597, 12 543 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of breaking yesterday's high is 90% Macroeconomic releases USA - National holiday of Independence day Today's session hypothesis Today's plan is pretty straight forward. Just as yesterday, we have an increased statistical probability of breaking yesterday's high, hence all the trades have a clear target. We could find some buyers at 12 597 or even lower at 12 543. In case bulls are aggressive enough, it is likely they will start aiming higher right from the beginning of the session.
EUREX:FDAX1!Long
by FTMO
Dax daily: 03 Jul 2019 Yet another session without a gap. Sellers attempted to retest prices from the last week, yet to no avail. It was just around 12 475 when Dax turned around from its slight downward correction and eventually closed where it opened the daily session. Important zones Resistance: 12 600 Support: 12 391, 12 428 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of breaking yesterday's high is 83% Macroeconomic releases 09:15 - 10:00 CEST - Eurozone PMIs Today's session hypothesis We'll base our today's analysis on the fact we have a higher statistical probability of breaking yesterday's high. Thanks to yesterday's close, the odds incline the price might go higher, beyond yesterday's high. Our statistical application indicates that such situation happened in 83% of historical occurrences. This is a strong indication that plays for bull traders. Should this scenario happen, we estimate that 12 600 could be targeted as well. If not, the price decline towards 12 475 or even lower towards 12 428 is likely in a reverse situation.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
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