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Dax daily: 27 Jun 2019Yesterday, we've had a higher probability of 83% for breaking the previous day low. Although the odds were in our favour, the breakout of Tuesday's low didn't happen. Instead, Dax shot straight up and we've only found some sellers at the mentioned resistance zone of 12 282. Today, the price opens with an ascending gap. Important zones Resistance: 12 44 Support: 12 229, 12 191 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability for closing inside yesterday's range is 87% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis For today, our chances are pretty balanced from the Price Action perspective. One thesis suggests finding buyers and head to a resistance level of 12 344, where the shift of powers could happen and the price to return to yesterday's range. On the other hand, we have a pretty similar scenario where sellers could push the price lower to reach the support level of 12 229, where the price is likely to bounce from that zone and retest the 12 344. Should the price reach all the way towards 12 191 and the market participants losing momentum, it is likely Dax would rather slow down.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 26 Jun 2019 We welcome all to a mid-week analysis. The support level at 12 191 we mentioned yesterday functioned perfectly as this was retested right after the open. Contrary, the resistance zone of 12 230 didn't have much significance. Dax found some bearish pressures at a higher price of 12 266 and following was a downside move to a very near intra-day low. Important zones Resistance: 12 282 Support: 12 120, 12 049 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability for breaking yesterday's low is 83% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis For today, our major key for establishing the price projection is the high statistical probability for the breakout of yesterday's low. Hence all sell positions have a clearly defined target. Another target to keep an eye on is the support level around 12 120 where we hope to find some buyers.
EUREX:FDAX1!Short
by FTMO
Dax daily: 25 Jun 2019 Yesterday's session met our expectations. We've had a very high probability for breaking Friday's low, which eventually happened. Dax was steadily in a slight downtrend for the whole session and the price closed near the support level of 12 219. Today, Dax opened below this zone with a descending gap. Important zones Resistance: 12 230 Support: 12 191, 12 120 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Today we expect the entrance of buyers right at 12 191, which is now being retested. We target closing the gap too. If there are no buyers at 12 191, the momentum could escalate towards 12 120. Should the market participants stay within yesterday's range, the price action is likely to slow down or oscillate within that range.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 24 Jun 2019 Welcome to a new trading week. Friday's session turned out as expected, but unfortunately, our zones didn't get a chance to play a role. The resistance at 12 337 and 12 373 didn't attract any sellers. They entered a bit higher at 12 409 and continued to dominate intra-day price action. Dax then closed just short of the support level laying at 12 219. Today, we open with a strong ascending candle and with a long gap. Important zones Resistance: 12 350 Support: 12 219, 12 191 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of breaking Friday's low stands at 96% Macroeconomic releases 10:00 CEST - German Ifo Business Climate Today's session hypothesis Today we have a very high probability for breaking Friday's low. For this reason, every short signal has a clear target. If and once that happens, we could find some buyers at 12 219 or 12 191. Even though we have such a high probability for a certain market occurrence, don't forget to always manage your risk and don't bet too much on one card.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 11 Jun 2019 Yesterday, we expected a retest of 12 139 and the drop towards the trend line. Dax did not reach all the way towards the resistance zone, but the return to 12 046 level worked well. The market met both of our indications – the support zone of 12 046 and the trend line. Bulls were not strong enough in the afternoon session and the price closed slightly negative at 12 084. Important zones Resistance: 12 139 Support: 12 046 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability to close the gap is only 38% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today’s session hypothesis The price opened with an ascending gap sized 50 points, right at the mentioned resistance level. The statistical probabilities incline the gap closure is unlikely for today’s session and this indicates a bullish bias. Should the uptrend be formed and confirmed, we estimate the price is to reach 12 207 level.
EUREX:FDAX1!Long
by FTMO
Dax daily: 10 Jun 2019 Welcome everybody to a new trading week. Friday’s session started according to our expectation by closing the gap and the price went slowly up. At 2:30 pm we’ve had the US Non-Farm Payrolls release which caused a couple of volatile candles. Later in the afternoon session, Dax significantly slowed down as participants closed the week with the NFP moves. Today, the price opens with an ascending gap. Important zones Resistance: 12 139 Support: 12 046, trend line Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today’s session hypothesis Today, we could retest the resistance at 12 139 where we hope to find some sellers correcting the price back to retest the 12 046 level. If the resistance at 12 139 isn’t strong enough and buyers prove their bullish momentum, it is likely to retest the price zone of 12 207. If sellers don’t find enough reasons to be aggressive right from the 12 046 level, their appearance might be felt somewhere around the nice trend line.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 04 Jun 2019 There was no resistance formed at Friday’s close. On the other hand, the support level laying at 11 620 that we spoke about in previous analysis functioned as expected. We found a new low here and the control was taken back by buyers who took the price towards the resistance at 11 788. This price zone was also mentioned in our yesterday’s analysis and it turned out Dax respected that very nicely too. The price bounced back from there and the session ended at 11 740. Important zones Resistance: 11 788 Support: 11 620 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today’s session hypothesis Today’s session got open pretty much without a gap. The price hovers just below the important resistance level at 11 788 and it appears this could be retested again. Should the price go above that, the next target will be 11 860. If the price does not break 11 788, we anticipate the action below this level in the range of 11 620 – 11 788 without any significant volatility.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 03 Jun 2019 The last session of May closed in red numbers when the price continued its drop in the descending gap direction, just as we anticipated. Those last few bearish days erased all the gains from the past two months and we are now in the territory where the price was at the beginning of April this year. This confirms the known theory that bulls walk up the stairs, while bears jump out the window. Important zones Resistance: 11 788 Support: 11 620 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of closing the gap today is only 30% Macroeconomic releases 09:15 – 10:00 CEST – Eurozone PMIs Today’s session hypothesis The first trading day of June started optimistic on Dax. Bulls are in a lead it appears they might have enough power to close the weekend gap. This one is sized 70 points and doesn’t close often. It is likely there is a weaker resistance level on Friday’s close, which could be a bounce point for further sells. Should the price descend below 11 620, it is likely we see further selling pressure.
XETR:DAX
by FTMO
Dax daily: 31 May 2019 As we anticipated, the support level of 11 861 held the price pretty strongly for the entire session and didn’t allow sellers to go any deeper. The gap was then closed and the intraday trading closed priced 11 918. Important zones Resistance: 11 861 Support: 11 735 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today’s session hypothesis After yesterday’s successful day for buyers, we came surprised to see the strength of the morning gap. This one is sized with some 140 points which is quite unusual. Dax has now entered the zone below the significant support levels and this is where the price was for the past two months. The first price action level where it is likely for the price to stall is the level laying around 11 735. With the gaps of such size, it is more likely the price continues in the gap direction and it’s close is then less probable.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 30 May 2019 Bearish momentum continued yet for another day in a row. After the open, Dax took a south direction and the price reached the support level of 11 861 without any problem. This level was retested a couple of times before the price eventually closed there. Yesterday’s price action took us to the low formed on 01 April. Important zones Resistance: 11 986, 12 063 Support: 11 861, 11 827 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of closing the gap is 69% The statistical probability of breaking yesterday’s low is 96% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today’s session hypothesis Although the trading is limited today in many countries due to the public holiday and Eurex is partially closed, Dax market is open as normal. For today, we have quite some interesting leads given by the Statistical application. The most important is the probability of 96% to break yesterday’s low and this could signify further downfalls. When we look at the chart from a longer time perspective, there is a lot of room for sellers after breaking the 11 861 barrier. As of now, this level functions well and holding the price. Let’s keep a sharp eye on how this situation evolves.
EUREX:FDAX1!Short
by FTMO
Dax daily: 29 May 2019 Bulls were facing a sad scenario yesterday as the selling pressures continued through the gap closure. The price stalled lower at the support level of 11 985. In the end, bears broke out that zone and Dax closed on its intra-day low at 11 965. Important zones Resistance: 12 063 Support: 11 861, 11 922 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of closing the gap is 41% Macroeconomic releases 09:00 CEST – German Buba President Weidmann Speaks 09:55 CEST – German Unemployment Change Today’s session hypothesis Today, the price opened with pretty much the same gap size as yesterday, but in the opposite direction. The descending gap doesn’t have any strong statistics for closing, but this was very similar yesterday. As support levels, we identified zones laying around 12 922 and 11 861. These levels could have a significance in today’s price action development. If the price goes below 11 922, we estimate the retest of 11 861 with an increased probability. In the opposite scenario, our bias would only be the closure of the gap, targeting 11 965.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 28 May 2019 For yesterday we were more supportive of the buyers, but their strength didn’t last long. The sellers were able to correct the growing movement and eventually, Dax moved sideways. We closed at 12 064. The last trading hours were absolutely without volatility. Important zones Resistance: 12 142 Support: 12 064, 11 958, 11 922 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of closing the gap is 39% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today’s session hypothesis Today began with an ascending gap of 41 points. The last two sessions are systematically rising to higher prices and today’s gap is a continuation of this action. Zones from the past analysis are still valid, so the first resistance that we should be careful about is 12 142 price. Today’s probabilities suggest not to close the gap and rather head higher. If the gap is closed, the price of 12 064 will now be a luxurious support level where new buyers can comfortably step in.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 20 May 2019 Friday’s session hasn’t really seen much success from the statistical point of view. There were increased probabilities for breaking of Thursday’s high and two support levels nearby to add to the hypothesis. Dax turned downhill on a very lazy pace, buyers reacted with a very slight correction at the first mentioned support level and the second support level hasn’t even been reached. In the end, the session turned out to be a lazy bear, as it often is on Fridays. Today we open with a small ascending gap. Important zones Resistance: 12 376 Support: 12 196, 12 118 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today’s session hypothesis We anticipate continuing in the uptrend that has formed. Dax already filled our first target, which was a retest of 12 190 level. In the upcoming days, we estimate that the zone laying at 12 448 could be retested as well. Buyers could be found around the support zone of 12 196 where we have a nice confluence with the trendline, or even lower at the support at 12 118. Sellers could show their strengths at 12 376.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 16 May 2019 Yesterday’s session corresponded with our analysis. After the open, Dax began to descend towards the support at 12 946 where we haven’t encountered any buyers and the price continued lower. Later in the NY session, Dax unexpectedly jumped up and today we open with a descending gap. Important zones Resistance: 12 097, 12 190 Support: 11 917 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of breaking yesterday’s high is 83% Macroeconomic releases 10:15 CEST – German Buba President Weidmann Speaks All day – Eurogroup Meetings Today’s session hypothesis Today, we estimate that the gap could be closed and find some sellers around the resistance zone of 12 097 for a possible correction. However, the probabilities today are more inclined to a buyers favour who could take the price all the way towards 12 190.
EUREX:FDAX1!Long
by FTMO
Dax daily: 15 May 2019For a change, yesterday’s session was in the hands of buyers. We first found some sellers at the resistance zone of 11 956 and they pushed the Dax some 50 points lower before buyers stepped in. Dax is opening with an ascending gap today. Important zones Resistance: 12 139 Support: 11 946 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 11:00 CEST – Eurozone – Flash GDP q/q Today’s session hypothesis Today, we expect buyers to continue in the correction with the first target laying at 12 190 and then 12 455 in the following days. The probability of closing the gap is not any high today, but the market structure of the recent days signifies the initial short. We could find some buyers at the support level of 11 964 which we could use as a bounce area to enter into a long position targeting 12 195. Sellers have a possible level of interest around the 12 139 zone.
EUREX:FDAX1!Long
by FTMO
Data from China and the US, world trade is at crisis pointThe statistics from China was the main news event of yesterday. It seems that government measures to stimulate the economy have taken effect. Retail sales and industrial production were much higher than analysts' forecasts of 8.7% and 8.5%. As a result, GDP growth was also pleasantly surprised: 6.4% quarterly growth, with market expectations of 6.3%. The progress in the negotiations between the US and China the result is the decline in gold and the Japanese yen and it looked quite logical and reasonable. But we are still not in a hurry to sell gold. At least today. Moreover, the negotiations are rumors, and the facts are that in the fourth quarter of 2018, world trade fell by 1.8% q / q, which was a record value in the last ten years since the global financial crisis. According to The Telegraph, the recent downturn in world trade is similar to the dot-com bubble collapsed in 2001. Over the past almost 20 years, things were worse only in 2007–2008, when the volume of world trade fell by 12.7%. The dollar “received support” from data on the US trade balance. The deficit turned out to be less than experts had expected: - $ 49.4 billion with the forecast - $ 53.4 billion. We were pleased with the markets and data on the trade balance of Canada, which also came out better than expected. So the main beneficiary of the news of yesterday was the Canadian dollar, which strengthened well, although at the end of the day lost most of the gains. Recall that for the Canadian dollar, which is a typical commodity currency, positive news from China, coupled with positive macroeconomic statistics and high oil prices create almost perfect conditions for growth. Yesterday's news background is generally favorable for commodity markets. But oil was not able to take advantage of this and dropped at the end of the day. We consider this as a signal that the market correction has already matured. Accordingly, while asset quotes are at the local top, we decided to roll over from buying to sales. However, if oil resumes its growth (it will be able to consolidate above 64.50). So today we sell oil with stops above 64.50.
by Trade24Fx
Statistical Research for BTCUSD positionsHello, world. As currently three of our robots are showing the same direction, I would like to take time and define several ideas that we have as a baseline for our robot's analysis. First, conceptually we need to define that all robot trading based on a data mining process, which includes a specific education for robot algorithms. This is where it all starts, the system is concluding results of the robot's trading, and after a lot of iterations, specify which of the educational patterns were right (or got the most profit while keeping a small drawdown). For Bitcoin, the most certain case scenario for any trader would be a way to understand where do we go on upscaled state, as far as we can define two market conditions: when it's in a trend, or staying in a flat. Trading on an upscaled level means having more profit in a single order, instead of taking advantage of small movements; and in the same time, most of the critical robot tasks is minimizing a stoploss to be winning by expected value. Functionally, all of that means a robot should find right factors to see there would be a high peak after the flat, and they will be statistically recognized on a scale that a quantity of profits is going to beat all the loss. When you understand those points, you can spend time on defining a strategy. BTCUSD is a perfect model of emotional trading, as it has many retail investors. In contradiction to bot-dominated markets, it has a very small-ranged flat, and very high-ranged emissions, so to have success as an upscaled robot on such exchange, your idea is to predict those emissions and try to catch large sharks. Currently, three of our robots utilizing different statistical approach, decided to go short with three different sets, which you can see on the graph, or follow the previous analysis. I would be glad to answer your questions about data mining for Crypto or take a look at your ideas about the algorithms. Let me know what do you think about the future of the market, will it stay such emotional? Have a good sailing!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by siriustrees
BTC USD LongGiven the recent drop in bitcoin price many would be skeptical to buy. However that's not what traders should be doing in my opinion and here is my reasoning why: Bitcoin had reached this price level before mainstream investors heard about the explosive rise on it's price, this means people who actually knew about bitcoin fundamentals were getting on board with the rally and were thinking this price was justified. As more and more people began to hear about this currency being on a long-lasting bull market the price began to rise exponentially creating a bobble. Now with a drop of 80% bitcoin has surpassed the the mean of a bull market by a large mark. Although I don't know the standard deviation of bull markets I think it's safe to say it's at least 1 standard deviation away from the mean. Therefore Bitcoin would be in a range of which P(x) = 0.3 therefore there is a 70% probability price will begin to reverse soon, although right now the entry is quite risky and waiting for a better price is advised
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by DarkMessiah777
Comparison of Bitcoin Major CorrectionsThe Bitcoin has been showing a substantial growth over the past years, although huge growth was followed by huge corrections. Let's try to compare the past two correctional moves down with the current one. The past two strong corrections occurred in 2013 and 2014 were price retraced for over 75% from the peak values. All smaller corrections occurred in between resulted in a correctional move down of not more than 40%. First Correction The corrective wave back in 2013 resulted in a 76% decline while price moved from $260 high, down to the $60 support and has lasted for 87 days . Second Correction The next strong correction was not too far away and happened during 2014 - 2015. This time Bitcoin has corrected from the $1165 all-time high, down to $200 support level, which resulted in an 82% loss against the USD. The correction, including the consolidation period, has lasted for 637 days ! Third (Current) Correction With the latest move down, Bitcoin has corrected down by almost 70% , during a relatively very short period of time, only 51 days . The Conclusion All major corrections have a tendency of a 70-80% drop, while the timeframe of the correctional move and consolidation period can vary. Bitcoin has already corrected nearly 70% from the all-time high and it could be a good buying opportunity for the long-term investors. At the same time, if 80% correctional move will be applied to the chart, the price could drop as low as $4000. Therefore, statistically speaking big players could start or could have started buying Bitcoin Bitcoin anywhere between $6000 and $4000.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CryptoPAMM
2
USDJPY BUY - 24/10/2017USDJPY - The Yen corrected down yesterday, but the movement was on small volume, so that we can’t consider it as a reversal or bearish signal. That’s why our previous scenario remains the same: long positions should be in priority, but we can enter the market after a resumption of the growth on large volume, which will a good bullish signal. A stop loss should be placed below the level 113.05. A potential of the deal is more than 110 pips. More please check section Daily Analysis website www.trustbrokergroup.com The bottom line: long positions are in priority.
Long
by trustbrokergroup
Short GBPCAD - Anticipating Dissappointing GBP News FlowMy statistical studies shows that GBP hard data release today is likely to be dissapointed. CAD will also have somewhat dissapointed data in my opinion, however relatively it will have the smallest "dissapoinment gap" amongst the Majors. In addition, today we will have 2 speeches coming out from MPC Member Broadbent and the BOE Governor Carney, both of whom has sent the GBP lower during their previous speech. Positioning wise: retails are shorting GBP with the most significant Short being GBPUSD and GBPJPY. For CAD, CAD is also net shorted with CADJPY the most shorted. I am already in and I do intend to hold this trade all the way today unless stopped out. My SL is 1.676 and there is no major TP (some interested technical level would be 1.665 and 1.660). Of course I may adjust throughout the days as the news are released.
Short
by vietbach1990