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NZDUSD Aloha, welcome to the new week! Wanted to share a tip that has helped me save money and kept my psychology sane: Let the market develop for the first few hours before placing a trade. Reason being is spreads are usually steep and the market can be volatile and choppy. NZDUSD was on my watch at the end of last week and my last analysis shows that I would be going long on this trade, however, applying a the rule of "let the market decide in the first 4-5 hours", minimum, has saved me from a quick loss of -1% on this trade and countless others trades. I like the 15min wedge for a continuation, the 50ema on 4hr, 1hr, and 15min all support my thoughs of going long. However, The daily is stil developing to either break above the 50 or reject it and have a crash. Any way, hope this in your trading journey! Stay patient and wait for your strategy to play out, no need to rush it! Mahalo for reading, happy trading all!
Education
by Reid_Hicks
ETHUSD: Broken Support But Great Place For A Reversal.ETHUSD Update: Major support at 246 area is broken. A sign of continued short term weakness ahead. I am still bullish long term. During these type of corrections within a larger bullish trend, it can be very easy to get sucked into buying too early, especially when very opinionated. One less bearish observation that I can make about the current price action is even though 246 has been broken, price has not gone dramatically lower and may be in the process of forming a broader double bottom. If this formation presents itself, this general area of 238 to 246 may offer an early buying opportunity. If price breaks below 238, the next major support area is 229, which again will have to show a broader bottoming process before I even think of getting long. There are quite a few key resistance areas that need to be compromised before I can consider short term momentum to be bullish again. The major ones that will change my outlook back to bullish are 262 and 269. Unless those are taken out, price is likely to persist lower, or to consolidate. I am still not comfortable shorting because the major trend is not bearish yet. The conservative plan is to wait for the pivot resistances to break before considering a long and until then stay flat. A more aggressive variation is to wait for a bottoming formation like a double bottom or higher low somewhere between 245 and 230, put on 25% of my regular position size and if the reversal follows through and price starts breaking the pivot resistances, I can then evaluate my targets, add to the position and adjust my risk. My aggressive entry will all depend on the quality of the formation. Otherwise I will simply wait it out for real buying to come back. At the moment the only reference point I have to measure risk is the 239 low. If I happen to get long with a small position, the risk is reduced if I am stopped out below 239. I'm not using 245 as my risk point because it was broken (red arrow) and momentum is bearish. I am not going to consider it a reliable support for the type of trade I am contemplating. This update is to share my thoughts based on the price action at the moment. Since it is a holiday here in the US, I probably won't post any detailed updates until after the holiday. If I happen to enter on my aggressive scenario, I will attempt to update this post.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
7
ETHUSD .382 Support Break Sign of Weakness.ETHUSD has broken 273 (the .382) support from the major bullish trend on the larger time frame (See large red arrow). The bullish trend is still intact in my opinion, but this support break confirms short term bearish momentum. Situations like these are very conflicting since the larger time frame presents a bullish condition while short term selling weighs on this market at the moment. Based on the structure on the 15 minute chart, momentum is now bearish and I would expect selling pressure to push prices lower toward the next major support at the 247 area. As long as price stays below the 280 resistance, it is reasonable to expect lower lows. Two scenarios can happen that will negate this short term bearish outlook. 1) The formation of a broad double bottom in the 274 area (where we are at the time of this writing). 2) A break above the 280 resistance followed by a higher low. Until one or both of these bullish scenarios emerge, I will be watching for price to retrace and hold the 247 support. From there I will reevaluate and look for bullish reversals. I am not a big fan of shorting a market that is generally strong, I like to stack probabilities in my favor. My preference is to stay flat and wait for bullish momentum to return. Let's see how this plays out. Stay tuned for my next update.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
18