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Steadycompound

Hold on to short position at $37.7 and wait for trend to develop3 scenarios for 1. (Up case) Up then Correction - BTC can touch 40k (some technical shows that btc full reach for this wave is 48k, but I think it’s too stretch, especially now the approval window is behind us). After reaching this upper level, correction is due to happen - BTC cycle also suggest that 28th Nov should be the peak for this current wave 2. (Flat case) Consolidate then Up - BTC consolidate here around 37k - 35k above the MA200 and break out of the pattern to the upside - 34k area is Point of Control (POC) shown in Visual Range Volume Profile (I couldn’t show on tradingview here as I haven’t update my account yet, but you can see on Binance BTC chart, enable Visual Range Volume Profile technical indicator) - Volume Profile formed a B shape (one at 26k - 27K, one at 34k) so technically speaking it’s an uptrend continuous indicator - In the case of ranging, the POC will act like a magnet so price can go to 34k, also the longer the price is trading within the value area the higher the chance it will visit the Value Area Low (VHL) at 33k 3. (Down case) Down then Up - If broken below the area above, price will aim for area of 30k- 31k which has been retested. Below that is 25k - 26k but I doubt we ever get to here by Jan24, as people are still speculating on ETF approval - Once bounce from the support level, price will carry on its bullish wave What I think will happen I hope for an early correction because I think it would be more healthy for the next wave, also because I’m biased that I want to buy into BTC at lower range But I think Scenario 2 is more likely (happening now) If Scenario 3 happen it will be a quick up and then down
by SteadyCompound
1
BTC is building for an up move then likely correct As said in last week newsletter, BTC is developing in scenario 2 as expected. At this moment, an up move is expected soon For me, ETH and BNB are a high probability trades with break out seem to be likely (too bad mkt recovered in 24h after CZ news) I’ll buy in December according to my DCA plan (25% before ETF news / 25% after ETH / 25% before halving / 25% after halving). BTC.D will face a resistance after potential retest upper bound (i.e. BTC up move), this will give a window to get into ETH,BNB, Alts to play catch up and rebalance back into BTC if needed
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by SteadyCompound
Potentially good opportunity to buy BTC soon !#4 Newsletter: Week 12.11.23 - 19.11.23 Updated Fibonacci level to recent top 3800 1. Signs of Bearish Divergence on RSI, MACD 2. $38k was the price when LUNA collapse so expected decent stop-loss, profit-taking here Trade Ideas 1. Short above $37.5 at ½ size (no auto stop – we manage accordingly under $40) 2. Always target 0.382 or 0.5 Fibonacci level under $34k, hence around +2 R/R *Just to be clear, I believe this is a start of the bull market and “follow the trend: buy when uptrend, sell when downtrend ” will make our life so much easier i.e less hustle, higher hit rate, even bad entry will become an accumulation. We rather wait for Bullish Divergence entry than Bearish Divergence entry A short for profit is unnecessary, too much work and uncertainty for too little money (small size at best). The point is for me personally to feel the market as I will start buying BTC soon and mostly spread across level and timeline More interesting opportunities would be on ETH and Alt Market, but 1. I’m not a big fan of Alt market now, price can pump 20-40% but can crash the same as quickly and easily. My goal is to establish my exposure into the market for the coming months so I need size, not a profit 2. ETH is a better choice consider that it is more fundamental and a benchmark for alt season etc... ETF news would help too. But again, finding an entry on BTC should be my priority now
Short
by SteadyCompound
A Short Set Up may have finally come • Updated Fibonacci level to recent top 35984 1. RSI Bear Divergence appeared on Daily time frame 2. MACD Bear Divergence also showed up on Daily time frame, currently print the first red hologram after about 20-days green. Compared to July-Aug price action, BTC may still test a higher range but a short above mid-35k is ideal 3. MACD Bear Divergence appeared. MACD crossed signal line. last time when both RSI and MACD turn bearish, price "corrected" i.e dropped for +1months Hence, this is a short set up for me 1. Sell as high above 35.5k as possible ( potentially wait for Powell talk to short the price pump i.e. recently market takes Powell talk positively ) 2. Stop loss at 5% and target 0.382 level at 32.5k (ideally short at close to 36 at possible to lift stop level at close to 38k at possible) -> if this set up works, this can be a trade for the next month, we don’t want to be stopped out by tail p/s I released on Monday (a day late) as I was travelling and did not have access to my system
Short
by SteadyCompound
The 4th Bull Run may come earlier than expected ! 1.Halving event has always triggered the bull run. The parabolic move happened about 2-3 months after the halving date 2. A more detailed look into halving phases can be found here in my friend Kinoko Halving Chart. Based on the price moment and the timeline, I believe that we are in Anticipation phase (6 months prior to the Halving date) 3.What different this time is the approval of Bitcoin ETF with Third Deadline in Jan24 and Final Deadline in Mar24 so I expect the Anticipation phase will be very speculative this time 4.Yet I don’t think this is the “buy the rumour, sell the news” type of event because ETF is about mainstream institutions to be LEGALLY join the BTC market, there’s no front-runner, sneaky way around (see the volume and price movement of Gold ETF) 5. Hence, the 4th Bull Run may come early and be much different than before. So #accumulatebtc but don’t #fomo, because more likely than not, we will have good set up to entry (potential shakeout)
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by SteadyCompound
SteadyCompound #1 Newsletter: Week 23.10.23 - 29.10.23Welcome to SteadyCompound 1st Newsletter, A few notes about my approach to nowadays trading - I am a retired trader (2008-2018). I day-traded high frequency time-frame across Stock (2008), Bond Futures (2010), Forex / Gold (2012), Commodity e.g. Brent, Gas (2015) and Crypto (2017) - I turned start-up cofounder (2020) and recently gained financial freedom (2023), which define my approach to now "trading as a hobby": refrain from over-trade and opt for high probability trade only with high R/R, clear indicators and peace of mind - My goal is to steadily compound wealth and accumulate Bitcoin long-term Trade Ideas for Week 23.10.23 - 29.10.23 1. Range has been stable for 6 months within 25K - 31K territory so we can exit our long at high 30k - low 31K 2. Taking Short Position at high 31K e.g 31600 is our SC "SteadyCompound" trade: - short into the down trend / RSI oversold +75 / year-high 31K resistant / low volume spike for 2.7 R/R ratio, targeting above 27K - hard-stop of 5% at right above 33K e.g 33113 (there is another resistant range at 31K - 33K formed during 2021-2022 which possibly allow us to scratch / take small loss on our short position) #steadycompound #financialfreedom #tradingstrategy #systematic #bitcoin p/s repost for Binance Exchange
Short
by SteadyCompound