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IO Weekly Technicals Review [2024/44]: Set For Large Move SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures (“SGX IO Futures”) expiring in December rose last week, up by USD 0.54/ton on Friday, though prices gave up some gains by the end of the week. SGX IO Futures opened at USD 101.60/ton on 28/Oct (Mon) and closed at USD 102.14/ton on 01/Nov (Fri). Prices briefly touched a weekly high of USD 104.60/ton on 29/Oct (Tue) and a low of USD 101.30/ton on 28/Oct (Mon). It traded in a range of USD 3.30/ton during the week, which was smaller than the prior week. Prices traded just above the pivot point of USD 103.70/ton for most of the week before falling below it on Friday. Volumes were noticeably lower in the later part of the week. Highest volume was observed on 30/Oct (Wed). SGX Iron Ore Futures Fundamentals in Summary China’s parliament has started its five-day meeting on 4/Nov (Mon) and is expected to announce the details of the fiscal support on 8/Nov (Fri). Analysts suggest the fiscal plan could reach 10 trillion yuan (USD 1.4 trillion), with most funds likely allocated to refinancing local government debt. The outcome is likely to drive significant volatility during the week. China’s manufacturing PMI rose from 49.8 to 50.1 in Oct as the manufacturing sector shifted into expansion after 5 months of contraction. Non-manufacturing PMI also rose to 50.2 from 50.0. Steel industry PMI rose to 54.6 from 49 in prior month. The PMI reading was the highest since July 2018. The output index rose to 63.6 suggesting the stimulus helped boost steel production. Caxin’s China manufacturing PMI rose from 49.3 to 50.3 in October recovering from the dip in September. IO China Portside inventories rose by 770k tons to 150.1 million tons last week. The pickup volume declined further by 13k tons. Accumulating inventories pose a risk to IO demand. Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures Dec contract trades 3.6% higher than its last 5-year average (USD 99.31/ton). Short-Term Moving Averages Signal Bearish Trend Prices recovered following the bearish MA crossover on 22/Oct but failed to rise above the 21-day moving average. The 21-day moving average served as a resistance level throughout last week. Long-Term Averages Provide Support Prices shot above the 100-day moving average on 28/Oct (Mon) and managed to hold above this level for the rest of the week. Price re-tested this support level on 4/Nov (Mon) but seems to be holding above it for now. MACD Points to Fading Decline The MACD suggests a weakening bearish trend, with the short-term MA positioned just below the long-term MA. However, both MAs are trending downward, making a bullish crossover unlikely without a sharp rally. The long-term MA may serve as support. The RSI is near a neutral level at 51.02. Fibonacci 38.2% Tested Last Week Following the retracement of the bearish trend since the start of October, prices rallied to the 38.2% Fib level but failed to surpass it. This could indicate a continuation of the bearish trend. Though, the USD 100/ton level may provide psychological support. Price Trading Just Below Volume Point of Control Sellers continued to dominate trading despite an uptick in buyers early last week. Price faced resistance at the volume point of control for October (USD 103.55/ton). There is another area of volume concentration at (USD 101.15/ton) which could provide near-term support. Bollinger Bands Narrowing with Low Volatility Bollinger Bands for IO futures are narrowing and their width is near the lowest contraction since August, increasing the likelihood of a sharp breakout. Price is currently at the mid-point of the Bollinger Bands. Historical Volatility also continued to decline last week and reached its lowest level since August. Iron Ore Options Favor Calls SGX IO options expiring in December have an OI put/call ratio of 0.86 as of 1/Nov which favors calls. Over the past week, trading in this contract was heavily skewed towards call with a volume put/call ratio of 0.38. Additionally, last week, near-term options expiring in November saw a large buildup of call options around the USD 105 strike suggesting bullish sentiment in the near-term. The delta-25 options skew for December options also shows a sharp increase in call IV alongside a narrowing skew suggesting high demand for calls. Hypothetical Trade Setup Iron Ore volatility has reached its lowest level since August. The rally last week failed to continue past the short-term moving average and the volume profile point of control and IO gave up substantial gains in the later part of the week despite the encouraging data from PMI releases. The results of the ongoing parliamentary meeting are expected on 9/Nov (Fri) and are likely to drive substantial moves in prices. Options activity over the last week showed a high concentration of activity for call options, especially at the strike level of USD 105/ton. The IV for IO options has also been rising unlike the historical volatility. A sharp upside move is likely, though, if the fiscal stimulus disappoints, prices may also decline sharply. Expressing the bullish view through a long futures exposes the position to higher risk if stimulus disappoints. Investors can instead express the bullish view using SGX IO options. A bullish call spread benefits from an increase in prices and offers a fixed upside and fixed downside along with a smaller premium cost than a long call position. Bullish call spread consists of long call at a lower strike and short call at a higher strike. A hypothetical trade setup consisting of USD 105/ton for the long call leg and USD 109/ton for the short call leg on the options contract expiring on 31/Dec offers a reward to risk ratio of 3x. The USD 109/ton level coincides with the peak during the last rally in mid-October and is close to the 200-day moving average, prices could face resistance above this level. This position offers a max profit of USD 299/lot and a max loss of USD 101/lot and breaks even when prices rise above USD 106.1/ton. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
SGX:FEF2!Long
by MintBulkCommods
IO Weekly Technicals Review [2024/43]: Term Structure Divergence SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures (“SGX IO Futures”) closed nearly flat last week, down by just USD 0.10/ton on Friday after recovering from a mid-week decline. SGX IO Futures opened at USD 101.65/ton on 21/Oct (Mon) and closed at USD 101.55/ton on 25/Oct (Fri). Prices briefly touched a weekly high of USD 103.45/ton on 21/Oct (Mon) and a low of USD 98.10/ton on 24/Oct (Thu). It traded in a range of USD 5.35/ton during the week, which was smaller than the prior week. Prices traded below the pivot point of USD 103.35/ton for the entire week but managed to hold support above the S1 pivot point at 97.65. Volume peaked on 25/Oct (Fri) as Iron Ore prices rallied from near their low following the announcement of a parliamentary meeting to discuss the stimulus package between 4/Nov and 8/Nov. SGX Iron Ore Futures Fundamentals in Summary Iron Ore received support in the later part of the week from the announcement of a parliamentary meeting to discuss the stimulus package in China which will take place between 4/Nov and 8/Nov. The People's Bank of China also said in a statement it had activated the open market outright reverse repo operations facility to "maintain a reasonable abundance of liquidity in the banking system and further enrich the central bank's policy toolbox“ ahead of a significant loan expiry at the end of the year. IO China Portside inventories declined by 400k tons to 149.33 million tons last week. The decline was driven by slower arrivals as pickup volume declined week on week and steel mill’s restocking pace was below analyst expectations. Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures Nov contract trades 2.6% below its last 5-year average (USD 105.58/ton). Seasonal Trend also suggests a price low is expected in the next few weeks. Short-Term Moving Averages Signal Reversal of Bullish Trend Prices began the week on a downward trend, marked by a bearish moving average (MA) crossover on 22/Oct (Tue). After the crossover, prices declined 3%, briefly dipping just above the S1 Pivot Point before recovering sharply on 25/Oct (Fri). On 28/Oct (Mon), prices are trading slightly below the 21-day moving average and the R1 Pivot Point for the week. Long-Term Averages Signal Bearish Trend Last week, the price traded below the 100-day moving average, closing just under this level. On 28/Oct (Mon), it rose sharply above the 100-day moving average but remains about 5% below the 200-day moving average. MACD Points to Fading Decline, RSI Trending Higher MACD indicates that the bearish trend is weakening, with the short-term MA beginning to curve upward toward the long-term MA. This suggests a potential consolidation around the long-term MA or a bullish crossover if momentum strengthens. Meanwhile, the RSI recently crossed above its 14-day average but remains near the midpoint at 53.84. Fibonacci 61.8% Maintained Support Last Week Volatility increased throughout the week but remains below early October levels. Last week, the price tested and held support at the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the prior uptrend. Fib levels from the recent downtrend suggest that the price may next retest the 38.2% level. The 61.8% level remains noteworthy, as it has previously acted as a key area of interest. Low-Volume Node May Drive Sharp Upward Move Despite ongoing selling pressure, buyers rebounded sharply in the latter part of the week. The price is currently at a low-volume node and could rise quickly toward the point of control, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci level. Calendar Spread Shows Deviation from Backwardation The recent price movement has created a premium on the April 2025 contract compared to the second-month contract (Nov 2024). A return to the usual backwardation structure is expected. Additionally, speculation over the next two weeks, driven by the upcoming parliamentary meeting, will likely focus on the more liquid Nov 2024 contract, which should further support the spread. Hypothetical Trade Setup Iron Ore prices received some support from the announcement of further monetary easing and hopes of further stimulus at the parliamentary meeting next week. The rally has reversed the consistent decline in IO over the past 3 weeks but outlook remains bearish as the impact of stimulus on prices has weakened since early October. In the near-term, stimulus expectations may drive a rally clouding the outlook for a straightforward short position. We propose a hypothetical trade set up of buying SGX IO November Futures Contract at USD 102.90/ton and selling the SGX IO April 2025 Futures contract at USD 103.60/ton to capitalize on the normalization of the backwardated term structure. Presently the Nov/April ratio is at 0.99324. An increase to 1.025 presents a 3.25% increase in the spread which results in a gain of USD 321 to USD 330. A stop loss at the ratio of 0.975 protects in case of further decline with a potential loss of USD 189 to USD 194. This calculation excludes transaction costs comprising of clearing broker fees and exchange clearing fees. The SGX requires a minimum initial margin of USD 320/lot and a maintenance margin of USD 352/lot for this intra-commodity spread. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
SGX:FEFX2024Long
by MintBulkCommods
IO Weekly Technicals Review [2024/42]: IO Reversal Deepens SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures (“SGX IO Futures”) fell last week for a second week in a row, closing USD 4.15/ton lower by Friday. SGX IO Futures opened at USD 105.85/ton on 14/Oct (Mon) and closed at USD 101.70/ton on 18/Oct (Fri). Prices briefly touched a weekly high of USD 109.05/ton on 14/Oct (Mon) and a low of USD 99.30/ton on 17/Oct (Thu). It traded in a range of USD 9.75/ton during the week, which was smaller than the prior week. Prices traded below the pivot point of USD 108.10/ton for the entire week but managed to hold support above the S1 pivot point at 101.15. Volume peaked on 17/Oct (Thu) as Iron Ore prices declined despite the announcement of expanded housing stimulus measures. SGX Iron Ore Futures Fundamentals in Summary Further measures to support the housing industry in China were announced on 17/Oct (Thu). The measures included widened support under the “white list” program to 4 trillion Yuan. PBoC started the week with a 25 bps cut to the 5-year loan prime rate and a 25 basis point cut to the 1-year loan prime rate offering additional easing measures. Despite an early rally, IO pared gains by the end of the day. China's GDP growth in Q3 was 0.9%, falling short of analyst expectations but exceeding the 0.5% growth recorded in Q2, which was revised downward. Annual GDP growth reached 4.6%, significantly below the 5% target. IO China Portside inventories rose by 1.89M tons to 149.73 million tons last week. The increase was driven by significantly higher arrivals and low pace of pickup due to slower restocking. Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures Nov contract trades 3.5% below its last 5-year average (USD 105.58/ton). Seasonal performance also suggests there could be a price dip with a low in the next couple of weeks. Short-Term Moving Averages Signal Reversal of Bullish Trend The 9-day moving average is continuing its downward trend and marked a bearish crossover on 21/Oct (Mon). Last week, the price held support above the S1 pivot point but faced rejection at the P pivot point on 21/Oct (Mon). Long-Term Averages Signal Bearish Trend Price fell below the 100-day moving average on 17/Oct (Thu). Despite reaching highs above this level, price has failed to close above the MA. MACD Points to Downturn, RSI Flat MACD signals an ongoing bearish trend since 16/Oct (Wed) with the distance between long and short-term MA continuing to expand as of 21/Oct (Mon). RSI is at the mid-point level of 49.5 signaling neutral trend. Volatility Eases, Fibonacci 50% Maintained Support Last Week Volatility briefly edged up in the middle of last week but now continues to decline and has reached the lowest level in October. The 50% Fibonacci level was tested last week but managed to maintain support. With a continued downward trend, the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 97.55 is the next major support level to watch if price declined below 50%. Selling Pressure Dominates, Price Gap Likely to be Tested This Week Heavy selling pressure dominates IO trading according to the Accumulation/Distribution indicator (A/D). Price trades at a high volume node which was dominated by sell volume and below a low volume valley which could be tested during the week. The bullish flag failed to maintain last week as prices fell further instead of consolidating. Hypothetical Trade Setup Iron Ore prices continued to decline last week as the expanded stimulus measures disappointed market expectations once again. Bearish trend in IO continues as fundamentals signal more pain in store and short-term MA signaled a bearish crossover. We propose a hypothetical trade set up of selling SGX IO November Futures Contract at USD 101.2/ton with a stop at USD 104.05/ton and target at USD 97.5/ton resulting in reward-to-risk ratio of 1.30x. Entry: USD 101.2/ton Target: USD 104.05/ton Stop Loss: USD 97.5/ton Profit at Target: USD 370/lot ((101.2-97.5) x 100) Loss at Stop: USD 285/lot ((101.2-104.05) x 100) Reward to Risk: 1.30x This calculation excludes transaction costs comprising of clearing broker fees and exchange clearing fees. The SGX requires a minimum initial margin of USD 1,232/lot and a maintenance margin of USD 1,120/lot. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
SGX:FEF2!Short
by MintBulkCommods
2
TATA STEEL: SYMMETRIC TRIANGLE- The chart is pretty self-explanatory - The price tests a 2 year old resistance trendline - The formation is one beautiful symmetric triangle that can have either outcome - The consolidation has been solid so far. This means The momentum may be really good. - The PE ratio is stagnant with the price - Do check out our take on JSW Steel in the suggested ideas below. What is your take on it? Feel free to comment. If it helped, Do Leave us a boost 🚀 Disclaimer: We are not registered advisors. The views expressed here are solely personal opinions. Irrespective of the language used, Nothing mentioned here should be considered as advice or recommendation. Please consult with your financial advisors before making any investment decisions. We like everybody else, have the right to be wrong :)
NSE:TATASTEEL
by TheChartereds
2
$NSE:SAIL looking Bullish and ready for an Upmove.NSE:SAIL has formed Inverse Head and Shoulders in weekly chart and has successfully given breakout from Triangle taking support from 0.618 Fibonacci and if we check weekly chart it has also broken Ascending triangle pattern. With current Fundamentals and Technicals NSE:SAIL looks strong and ready for one leg up around 160 and 180 in next few months and 200 to 250 in a year. Those who want to buy NSE:SAIL can buy around 125 to 135 with a Stoploss of 115. Targets are -Short Term 1. 145 2. 150 3. 158 - Mid Term 1. 160 2. 180 3. 200 - Long Term 1. 219 2. 256 3. 293 Please note we are not SEBI registered and the idea above is for educational purpose only and for my own understanding. Please DYOR before taking any trade. If you like my idea just give a share and boost and don't forget to follow.
NSE:SAILLong
by rahulxvaishnav
Steel Dynamics ($STLD) Stock Hits a Record HighSteel Dynamics ( NASDAQ:STLD ) reports current quarter guidance that was above estimates as it sees profitability potentially stronger than the previous quarter. The steelmaker said the gains were driven by its flat-rolled steel operations. Steel Dynamics added that because of its confidence in the business, the company repurchased 1.4% of its stock so far in the quarter. Steel Dynamics ( NASDAQ:STLD ) shares soared to a record high after the steel maker reported much better-than-expected guidance on booming demand. The company predicts current quarter earnings per share (EPS) of $3.51 to $3.55, while analysts were looking for $3.32. Steel Dynamics said it anticipates profitability from its steel operations to be "meaningfully stronger" than fourth-quarter results. While the company will give more details in its first quarter financial report on April 23, it pointed to increased shipments and earnings driven by the company's flat-rolled steel operations as fueling growth. Steel Dynamics ( NASDAQ:STLD ) also said earnings from its metals recycling business will be higher, and that its automotive, non-residential construction, energy, and industrial sectors “continue to lead demand,” Based on its “continued confidence in its earnings outlook and cash flow generation,” it had repurchased $279 million, or 1.4%, of its stock in the first quarter through March 11, the company said.
NASDAQ:STLDLong
by DEXWireNews
JSW STEEL LTD - DEMAND ZONE TESTEDCan enter at CMP 823 SL - 715 Target - 890,1000+ (Short term) Disclaimer - All information on this page is for educational purposes only, we are not SEBI Registered, Please consult a SEBI registered financial advisor for your financial matters before investing And taking any decision. We are not responsible for any profit/loss you made. Request your support and engagement by liking and commenting & follow to provide encouragement HAPPY TRADING 👍
NSE:JSWSTEELLong
by Jagadheesh_JP
Arcelor Mittal blip up before the crash down to 20 cents?Inv Cup and Handle formed on 28 September 2022. The price broke below the Brim level and since then it's been a one way trip down to 80 cents. Right now it seems to turn and approach a bull trap. This is where the price is likely to run up in the next two or three months with the Santa Claus Rally and the January Effect. It will then reach R2.20 to test the 200MA and the downtrend line. Then we will re-evaluate and see if the downside is still imminent to 20 cents. The analysis still stays. I like to consider this a Short Investor position.
JSE:ACLShort
by Timonrosso
Japan's Nippon Steel to Acquire U.S. Steel for $14.9 BillionJapan's Nippon Steel clinched a deal on Monday to buy U.S. Steel ($X.) for $14.9 billion in cash, prevailing in an auction for the 122-year-old iconic steelmaker over rivals. The deal marks the latest step in a gradual decline for the iconic 122-year old company, which was once the largest company on the planet. It was one of the first major conglomerates and a symbol of American industrial might. But it is no longer even the largest US steelmaker, having been surpassed by Nucor Steel years ago. Earlier this summer the United Steelworkers union vowed to only support a proposed offer by another unionized American steel company, Cleveland Cliffs, to buy US Steel, in a cash and stock deal then valued at $32.53 a share, or 40% less than Nippon’s all cash offer. The US Steel board rejected that offer and started considering other bids. US Steel’s statement said that Nippon Steel has a strong track record of safety in the workplace and working collaboratively with unions, that all union contracts will remain in place and that Nippon Steel is committed to maintaining these relationships uninterrupted. Technical Analysis U.S. Steel (NYSE: NYSE:X ) has since reacted to the news of the buyout offer from Nippon Steel surging to about 26% today as of the time of writing, with the stock trading above all its Moving Averages. United States Steel has also broken the rising trend up in the medium long term.
NYSE:XLong
by DEXWireNews
2
Tata Steel--Buy zone @112I am sharing the important levels of Support and Resistance. These levels play a crucial role in trading decisions, as they act as reliable markers of price movements. ------>>Support levels are price points where an asset tends to find buying interest, preventing it from falling further. ---->Resistance levels, on the other hand, are points where selling pressure typically prevents the asset from rising higher. They serve as key reference points for technical analysis This is going to reverse from 115 or 112 zone...look here for buying.
NSE:TATASTEELLong
by IIT-Trader
4
UPDATE: ArcelorMittal slow death continues to 20cArcelorMittal has shown downside since 2008 where the price was at its peak at R264,00. SInce the financial crisis it's just been down and down for the steel and minin company. It was one of the biggest in the world. and today is showing a slow death. The technicals still confirm downside to come with the Inverse Cup and Handle. The taregt remains at 20 cents. Traders can't do much as there is hardly any short scrip to profit along the way. SO I guess all we can do is watch...
JSE:ACLShort
by Timonrosso
Sail Cup and Handle PatternA clear pattern of Cup and Handle appears on Daily chart of Sail. Breakout has been given around Rs. 94 with a potential upside of 20%. The breakout has been supported with heavy Volume which indicates strength. Please give a boost and comment if you find the analysis helpful and consider following for more. Any Request, suggestions or advice are warmly welcomed. Disclaimer:I am not a SEBI Registered Analyst, and the views expressed here are solely my own and for educational purposes only. Make sure you consult your Financial advisor before investing, as I won't be responsible for any losses incurred.
NSE:SAILLong
by Kaushik_Karnale
X United States Steel Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought X here: Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of X United States Steel Corporation prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 26usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2023-10-20, for a premium of approximately $1.24. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NYSE:XLong
by TopgOptions