STEEM/Bitcoin Cycles Warm For A Few Days-Big Chill Coming?STEEM/Bitcoin 12 Hour Bars, LOG Scale, 06/19/18, Written 3:35 p.m. EST, by Mike Mansfield
Hi trader friends, STEEM might get hot for a few days but don’t let if fool you. It should then cool off again for at least one to two more legs down before it can likely finish its larger Wave (C) decline. Price is more important than time, but even better when price & time suggests the same thing, as in the case here.
SUMMARY: BOUNCE THEN LOWER, SO LOOK FOR SHORT OPPORTUNITIES AFTER NEXT TWO WAVE 4 BOUNCES.
Currently on Andrews Median Median Line support after a 5 wave down. This should provide a smaller degree Wave 4 a bounce for several days to sell into.
Then, down again. Why?
Cycles, Elliott Wave count, Gann/Andrews/Schiff lines are all still bearish.
CM_Williams indicator has slight bullish divergence, enough to support a small degree Wave 4 bounce.
But, the fact that it made lower lows on the swing before, supports our longer-term bearish view.
Solid red and green arrows show most likely path.
Dashed red and green arrow show less likely path
NO BREAKOUT UP UNTIL:
1. Daily close above the pink dashed horizontal line, which, is the prior Wave (1) low, and would likely invalidate bearish view.
2. Daily close above the red Andrews pitchfork upper channel line.
3. Daily close above the blue dashed Gann 3:1 line, whichever of the three possibilities comes first.
ELLIOTT WAVES, BIG PICTURE:p
Most likely path appears to be larger ABC zigzag or larger ABCDE contracting pattern, but unclear as yet.
I show both, so if you move the chart around you should see larger picture wave counts. We do not yet know if STEEM will boil and take off up after the forecasted (C) wave low or simply have a larger Wave (D) bounce followed by a Wave E) wave low, perhaps into the apex of a contracting pattern. If STEEM does take off with high volume after the Wave (C) low, and moves up in clear non-overlapping 5 wave pattern, then STEEM could have the beginning of a new impulse wave up, sooner rather than later.
CYCLES:
Cycles are about potential general energy shifts, not necessarily exact turning points. Sometimes they invert, sometimes they are perfectly timed with market highs and lows.
Cycles, are meant for general trend guidance.
Blue cycle = general trend thus far. Next trough, September 25, 2018.
Green cycle aligned with the 3 major lows. Next trough, August 26, 2018.
Red cycle tends to catch intermediate highs. Next trough, July 29th. This could be telling if the market gets unusually strong after July 29th. Watch for that date to see if the energy shifts dramatically up.
General guidance: Look for SHORT opportunities into possible lows around the end of July,, end of August, end of September.
NOTE: Do not use cycles alone!
We really like the SteemIt platform and hope it keeps growing! Definitely check out SteemIt as a competitor for Medium.com and eventually, perhaps other social media sites like Facebook and YouTube, since SteemIt integrates with Dtube and “pays” you for content, unfettered by the powers that seek to control free speech and hold some blockchains down until they have their own versions to gain even more power.
BOTTOM LINE:
More cooling off ahead after two Wave 4s of different degrees have their short-term pop ups.
Then down again to complete at least a Wave (C) low, possibly lower, or a Wave (E) apex in a wedge or triangle.
Lows in the end of July, end of August, and/or end of September, 2018.
DISCLOSURE:
This analysis is meant for educational purposes only. You trade at your own risk!
Cheers!
Michael Mansfield CIO
