Get started

Sterling

BoE's plans for additional rate cuts are in conflict Expectations are mounting that the BoE would implement additional rate cuts. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has stated that inflation is decreasing more rapidly than anticipated. The UK CPI for September registered at 1.7%, falling short of the central bank's 2% target, which has intensified speculation about upcoming rate increases. Wall Street is convinced that with UK inflation already below the target, there's a strong likelihood of additional rate cuts in November and December following the recent 25bp reduction. However, there are concerns regarding the potential aftereffects of hasty rate cuts. BoE economist Catherine Mann emphasizes that, despite a general slowdown in inflation, service price inflation continues to soar. She warns that an impulsive rate hike could reignite inflationary pressures. GBPUSD advanced to the 1.3000 threshold. After breaching the descending channel’s upper bound, the price holds above both EMAs, signaling a trend reversal. If GBPUSD breaches the resistance at 1.3045, the price may gain upward momentum toward 1.3265. Conversely, if GBPUSD fails to hold above both EMAs, the price may break the channel’s upper bound again and re-enter the descending channel.
by inkicho_exness
If Sep CPI slows, GBPUSD could fall further The UK's September Claimant Count Change rose to 27.9K, surpassing the market expectation of 20.2K. The UK unemployment rate in August dropped to 4.0%, the lowest level since last April. Attention now turns to the UK's September CPI results, with the market expecting a decrease to 1.9% from the previous 2.2%. If the CPI slows down, it could lead to increased expectations of further rate cuts by the BoE, putting pressure on the pound. GBPUSD showed sluggish consolidation between 1.3030-1.3100 for eight consecutive trading days. The price briefly tested the support at 1.3050, awaiting further price triggers for a rebound. If GBPUSD fails to hold the support at 1.3050, the price may fall further to 1.2960. Conversely, if GBPUSD breaches both EMAs and the resistance at 1.3250, the price could gain upward momentum to 1.3435.
by inkicho_exness
BoE is dovisher than the Fed. Will Sterling continue to fall? Sterling is exhibiting weakness as a robust US economy bolsters the dollar. With the likelihood of a substantial Fed rate cut now nullified by the strong US job market, speculation of further rate cuts by the BoE in November is exerting downward pressure on the GBPUSD. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey's statement about the potential for more aggressive rate cuts in response to ongoing inflation decline has intensified apprehensions about the BoE's hawkish monetary policy. It is also worth noting that the UK Treasury is expected to present a budget with tax hikes and austerity measures. This could exert pressure on near-term growth for the UK economy and lead to a decline in the value of the Sterling. GBPUSD maintained its downtrend and fell to 1.3060. The widening distance between both EMAs suggests a bearish momentum. If GBPUSD breaks the support at 1.3050, the price may fall further to 1.2960. Conversely, if GBPUSD breaches the resistance at 1.3250 and holds above both EMAs, the price could gain upward momentum toward 1.3435.
by inkicho_exness
GBP/USD Pulls Back as USD Strengthens Ahead of Core PCE DataThe GBP/USD pair edged lower during the Asian session on Friday, retreating from the highest levels it had reached since March 2022, around the 1.3435 region, which was touched the previous day. The decline was largely driven by a technical reversal after the pair tested a key daily supply-demand zone. This move coincides with data from the latest **Commitment of Traders (COT) report**, which shows that retail traders remain strongly bullish on the GBP. Despite the bullish positioning from retailers, the pair saw a pullback as the market anticipates important economic data out of the United States, including the **Core PCE Price Index** for the month of November. A positive reading from this inflation gauge could add further support to the US Dollar (USD) and push the GBP/USD pair lower. The USD is expected to strengthen if the data signals persistent inflationary pressures, which could keep the Federal Reserve cautious about loosening monetary policy too quickly. However, expectations regarding the Bank of England (BoE) are playing a counterbalancing role. The BoE is widely seen as taking a more gradual approach to cutting rates compared to the US Federal Reserve, which could help support the British Pound (GBP) in the medium term and limit losses for the GBP/USD pair. Still, with immediate market momentum and potential upside for the USD, the pair remains under pressure in the short term. In light of these developments, we are maintaining a **short position** on GBP/USD, as the combination of technical resistance and USD strength points to further downside in the near future. While GBP sentiment remains supported by BoE policy expectations, today's price action suggests that USD demand is likely to drive the pair lower, especially with key data releases on the horizon. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
Bearish divergence on GBPUSD daily chart; sterling overbought?GBPUSD has been in an uptrend since April 22, 2024, and has accumulated a 9.19% increase between April 22 and September 26. On August 27, the RSI indicator recorded a reading of 74.96, signalling a possible overbought situation. On September 26, the reading was at 71.68, which was slightly lower than the previous RSI reading. On the other hand, on August 27, GBPUSD was trading at 1.3264 before rallying to 1.3431 on September 26 – a marked gain over a monthly timespan. Sterling has since given up some of its recent gains, trading around the 1.33 mark. The pound has notably been the top performer among G10 currencies this year, rising over 5% against the dollar and 4% against the euro. Its strong rally began in late April, following a brief dip below $1.23. Sterling has appreciated by close to 10% against the U.S. dollar since last October. On a trade-weighted basis, sterling is now at its highest level since the UK's 2016 Brexit vote, just 2% below its pre-referendum level. Blistering rally for sterling on BoE, Fed rate divergence The currency's gains have been driven by expectations that UK interest rates will stay higher than those of other nations, due to persistent inflation in services and a surprisingly resilient economy. Technical indicators, however, indicate that there may be signs of a potential reverse in the trend for sterling. Some analysts have also noted that the sterling-to-dollar pair may start to look expensive soon as expectations for a 50-basis-point (bps) rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve will start to look misplaced. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently pushed back against forecasts of another outsized 50bps cut, saying he sees two more interest rate cuts, totalling 50 basis points, this year as a baseline “if the economy performs as expected.” Bearish divergence may be in play for GBPUSD A classic bearish divergence occurs when the price reaches a higher high than the previous one, while the oscillator forms a lower high. This pattern often indicates a potential for a stronger pullback or trend reversal. On October 1st, the price dipped below the 8-period Simple Moving Average, and with a classic bearish divergence currently in play, this suggests a potential bearish pullback in GBP/USD. The sterling-to-dollar pair may drop to the 1.3028 level, where a support zone is expected on the daily chart. Disclaimer: 76.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK.
Short
by Marketscom
2
GBPJPY 187.065 - 0.037 % LONG IDEAS MTF ANALYSISHELLO TRADERS Hope everyone is doing great 📌 A look at STERLING from HTF - MULTI TIME-FRAME ANALYSIS GBPJPY DAILY TF * Wednesday saw strong bullish momentum coming into play, But friday closed within the range. * The weekly & daily TF show we are still showing signs of a BEARISH move. * But seems we may see a reversal before continuation with the bears. * GJ took External range LQ, looking for that internal range LQ to be taken. * We are trading in discount of the move,This is where I would be looking for long entries. * With PO3 looking to open bearish this week to confirm a move higher into premium PD ARRAYS. GBPJPY 4H TF * Looking for the week to open BEARISH into the 4h FVG because our HTF BIAS (PO3) Is bullish . * WEEK open I will probably be looking for long positions OPPORTUNITIES. * We will see what does the market dish. * 4H noto giving clear plan with regards to pd arrays but looking to see down move to go high. GBPJPY 1H TF * We saw a rally with the bulls, strong momentum to the upside. * Looking at the 1H FVG, this is where i would look for LONG entries this week. * Should this PD ARRAY hold will be long for the GJ. * BASED on the price action served this week. HOPE YOU ENJOYED THIS OUT LOOK, SHARE YOUR PLAN BELOW,🚀 & LETS TAKE SOME WINS THIS WEEK. SEE YOU ON THE CHARTS. IF THIS IDEA ASSISTS IN ANY WAY OR IF YOU ENJOYED THIS ONE SMASH THAT 🚀 & LEAVE A COMMENT. ALWAYS APPRECIATED ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ * Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | * ENTRY & SL -KINDLY FOLLOW YOUR RULES | * RISK-MANAGEMENT | *PERIOD - I TAKE MY TRADES ON A INTRA DAY SESSIONS BASIS THIS IS NOT FINACIAL ADVICE TO EXCECUTE ❤ LOVELY TRADING WEEK TO YOU!
Long
by PULEMokhothu
7
SWING IDEA - STERLING AND WILSON SOLAR SW Solar is showing promising technical signals that suggest a potential swing trade opportunity. Reasons are listed below : 620-650 Crucial Support Zone : The 620-650 range has been a strong support zone, indicating significant buying interest and providing a solid base for potential upward movement. Bullish Engulfing Candle on Daily Timeframe: The formation of a bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart suggests a potential reversal, signaling strong buying pressure. 'W' Pattern Formation : The 'W' pattern, a bullish reversal pattern, indicates that the stock might be ready to break out to the upside. Bullish Marubozu on Weekly Timeframe : A bullish marubozu candle on the weekly chart indicates strong buying pressure, suggesting that the bulls are in control. 100 EMA Support on Daily Timeframe : The stock is finding support at the 100-day exponential moving average, reinforcing the overall bullish sentiment and providing a reliable support level. Target - 828 // 955 Stoploss - daily close below 620 DISCLAIMER - Decisions to buy, sell, hold or trade in securities, commodities and other investments involve risk and are best made based on the advice of qualified financial professionals. Any trading in securities or other investments involves a risk of substantial losses. The practice of "Day Trading" involves particularly high risks and can cause you to lose substantial sums of money. Before undertaking any trading program, you should consult a qualified financial professional. Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition and ability to bear financial risks. Under no circumstances shall we be liable for any loss or damage you or anyone else incurs as a result of any trading or investment activity that you or anyone else engages in based on any information or material you receive through TradingView or our services. @visionary.growth.insights
NSE:SWSOLARLong
by Visionary_Growth_Insights
$GBP - What shall we do now?$GBP - What shall we do now? GBP - Since we hit below 1.14 - 1.10 it's really been a one way for this pair and it could continue...However, we have options! 1 Emergency rate hike 2 Intervention 3 IMF 4 Fiscal spending 5 Swap Lines Now these are the options technically speaking we filled gap around 1.09 this morning, I expected 1.06 on table during open we hit lows of 1.03... Now, if we can hold the levels of these levels and perhaps go above 1.09 then no worries. However, if we carry on with these moves then things will get very interesting and keep an eye on the Gilt & FTSE! Now it all looks very dismal when it comes towards headlines but actually there are coming amazing investment opportunities the prices we are getting and of course if you're in USA, what a great time for you to visit! For Candle stick traders - dragon fly! Keep alert of what happens next, this week we have a lot speakers out of CB's and most importantly trade your plan! Best, TJ
Editors' picks
by Trade_Journal
24
Hedge Funds' Sterling Bet: A Risky Gamble?A surge in bullish bets on the British pound sterling by hedge funds and other asset managers has ignited concerns about a potential market upheaval. Aggressive positioning on the currency has reached a 10-year high, leaving it vulnerable to a sharp correction should the Bank of England (BoE) decide to cut interest rates this week. The data, sourced from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, reveals a dramatic increase in net-long positions on sterling over the past month. This bullish sentiment has been fueled by a combination of factors, including relatively high interest rates, signs of economic improvement, and the perceived stability of the UK government. As a result, the pound has gained nearly 1% against the US dollar since the start of the year and reached a one-year high earlier this month. However, the market's optimism may be misplaced. The BoE's monetary policy decision on Thursday remains a significant uncertainty, with market pricing indicating an equal chance of a rate hike or a cut. If the central bank opts to lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth, it could have a severe impact on the pound. The heightened bullish sentiment among investors has created a scenario where even a hint of dovishness from the BoE could trigger a rapid unwinding of positions and a sharp decline in sterling. The potential for a significant market correction has prompted concerns among analysts and investors. Some argue that the current level of bullishness is excessive and that the market is underpricing the risk of a rate cut. They caution that a sudden shift in sentiment could lead to significant losses for those holding long positions on the pound. As the market awaits the BoE's decision, volatility is expected to remain high. The outcome of the meeting will undoubtedly have far-reaching consequences for the pound and the broader global financial markets. If the central bank surprises the market with a rate cut, it could be a wake-up call for investors who have become overly complacent about the currency's prospects. Ultimately, the recent surge in bullish sterling bets highlights the inherent risks of relying on market consensus. While past performance is not indicative of future results, the current level of optimism surrounding the pound raises questions about the sustainability of the currency's strength. As the old adage goes, "buy low, sell high," but in this case, investors may be finding themselves on the wrong side of the trade.
by bryandowningqln
EURGBP Double ScenrioHello traders Regarding the daily chart we are in a bearish channel, a upward reaction to the bottom of the chart was seen however 0.8490 was a strong zone that coincide with middle of channel and make prices lower!! Mid term channel is bullish and we are around bottom of the channel, ready tp goes higher! Regarding the current chart while the general trend is bearish we are bullish again! ready to jump up from bottom of the channel Overall chance of rise is a little more Bullish scenario will be activated after breaking the purple line Bearish scenario will be activated after breaking the zone Bulls powers: bottom of all three channel, reaction to the recent zone and bullish mid-term channel Bears powers: short-term and long-term channels are bullish and we see a strong reaction to the long-term channel.
Long
by AliSignals
2
Pound Stumbles on Jobs Data, Raising Specter of BoE Rate Cuts The British pound (GBP) took a tumble today after the release of disappointing UK employment data, fueling speculation of a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in June. The data revealed a rise in unemployment for the second month running. March saw the jobless rate reach 4.3%, surpassing the previous month's reading of 4.2% and confirming fears of a slowing British labor market. This setback coincided with wage growth (excluding bonuses) stalling at 6% for the three months ending in March, defying expectations of a slight decline to 5.9%. Yael Selfin, Chief Economist at KPMG UK, believes this uptick in unemployment is likely a precursor to a slowdown in wage growth. She suggests that the UK's recent economic struggles might deter businesses from hiring new employees, consequently leading to a softening of wage pressures in the coming months. This scenario strengthens the case for an imminent interest rate cut by the BoE. With inflation remaining a pressing concern, the central bank is facing mounting pressure to lower its base rate in order to stimulate economic activity. Selfin elaborates, stating that if upcoming data on wage growth aligns with her forecast of a modest increase, insufficient to prevent a downward trajectory in annual pay, it could trigger a more dovish stance within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) ahead of their crucial June meeting. A dovish stance signifies a central bank leaning towards lowering interest rates. Market Response and Unfolding Narrative The pound's depreciation reflects a shift in investor sentiment. The initial optimism surrounding the BoE's hawkish stance on interest rates, intended to combat inflation, seems to be waning. The prospect of a potential rate cut has dampened investor confidence in the pound, leading to its current decline. Uncertainties and the Road Ahead The BoE now finds itself in a precarious position. While inflation remains a priority, the rising unemployment figures present a new challenge. The central bank will need to carefully navigate this complex situation. Key factors to watch in the coming weeks include: • Upcoming Wage Growth Data: If wages confirm Selfin's prediction of a subdued rise, it could significantly boost the case for a rate cut. • The BoE's Rhetoric: The language used by the BoE in its upcoming communications will be closely scrutinized for any hints regarding the likelihood of a June rate cut. • Global Economic Conditions: Broader global economic developments, particularly in the US and Europe, could also influence the BoE's decision. Conclusion The pound's recent slump serves as a stark reminder of the delicate balancing act the BoE faces. The bank's June meeting will be pivotal, with its decision on interest rates potentially shaping the course of the UK economy and the future trajectory of the pound.
Long
by bryandowningqln
GBPCAD: Strong start for GBP fading out?GBP has been the strongest performing currency so far this year - I keep asking myself why?? Country in a recession Stagnant economy Limp Central Bank With today's unemployment reading I'm expecting this to be the start of bearish involvement in sterling, I'm starting with this pair. Think oil has dropped a lot and could be ready to bounce up which is good for CAD. Seem to have broken the ascending trendline and retesting it now, failure to break back in will signify a change in direction. My first target is 1.708, around the MA50 (daily) and clear support.
Short
by Finchcliffe
GBPUSD: Expecting a drop from hereEven though sterling has found recent resilience, we are in a long-term down trend. I believe the recent rally must end, fundamentally the pound is much weaker than the dollar, the UK is in recession and the US looks likely to avoid one. The FED will start cutting rates, but I believe the BoE will act sooner (or at the same time) because it doesn't have the grace of a strong economy. On the LTF's we're at the top of this current dynamic rising range, but I think we may see a break of the lower boundary, and if we do this will be the resumption of the downtrend.
Short
by Finchcliffe
GBPJPY: Expecting further strengthPound has been in a long term downtrend, however breaking weekly highs and general sterling strength I believe we will see momentum continue to build an push this pair up to monthly highs. I think the Yen will start to improve against the dollar due to dollar weakness, this generally means that other crosses perform well against it, and we're seeing this with the likes of the Aussie. I'm seeing a rising dynamic trendline on the 4HR that I believe will be tested and respected, so I'll likely be going in on a LTF confirmation around the rising trendline.
Long
by Finchcliffe
GBPCHF: Looking like a fake out and drop to meI see GBP as continuing to be weak, poor GDP data last week, hikes expected to be over, and expecting to see some CHF strength. BoE interest rates this week, but with the market expecting hiking to be over, I don't think it matters what happens, sterling will fall. We saw a move above my descending trendline, seeing this as possibly a fake out - we've broken back through my support, now resistance line which would suggest a fall back down to recent lows here.
Short
by Finchcliffe
1
GBPUSD: Wow, some move on Friday, needs to close FVG?That fundamentals last week had a serious impact on this pair. The FED held rates with a dovish tone, and then the cooling labour market data slammed the USD. The BoE also held rates, but with a hawkish tone. UK data is not great, USD real yields are stronger, and there are still global tensions which are normally strong for the dollar, that said, this pair has broken out of weekly descending path with some umph, so this could well be the start of a reversal. Normally in these cases we get a retracement first to fill the fair value gap, we're also at strong resistance so will I believe we have to fall back to attract more buyers. Overall I think we could be looking at a reversal so will be keenly watching the move down with tight SL but with an expected target around 1.221.
Short
by Finchcliffe
GBPUSD: Rejection from trendline, supported by fundamentals?As we can see price has is currently respecting the descending trendline again. I'm expecting the BoE to maintain their hike-pause stance, this result is already baked into the price... I'm placing a small trade on the basis that my expectations will be correct... If there's a pause or reduction (highly unlikely) I'm expecting a fall back to around 1.208 to continue the creation of the wedge, important not to be greedy here as I feel like we could break out of the wedge at anytime, so probably will be considering buys once this trade is closed and keep a close eye on PA in the LTF's. Let's see what the BoE do!
Short
by Finchcliffe
5
GBPCHF November 2nd, 2023Based on the Daily timeframe for GBPCHF, a clear technical analysis reveals a notable development. The previous support trendline has experienced a downside breakout, now functioning as a resistance zone. Currently, the price is approaching this trendline, showcasing a retest scenario. There's a potential for a bounce off this resistance area. This probability is reinforced by the stochastic indicator, specifically with parameters set at 5,3,3. These settings are well-suited for the D1 forex market, where the 5-day (weekly) average aligns with the market's open days (Monday to Friday). The stochastic has crossed above the overbought (>80), indicating a potential reversal. In terms of price targets, a decline is anticipated towards the 1.09-1.08 range. It's advisable to set a stop loss if the price surpasses the current resistance level. This analysis aims to provide a straightforward and easily understandable overview of the GBPCHF pair's current technical situation.
Short
by DNP-FX
4