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Sterling

GBPUSD: Wow, some move on Friday, needs to close FVG?That fundamentals last week had a serious impact on this pair. The FED held rates with a dovish tone, and then the cooling labour market data slammed the USD. The BoE also held rates, but with a hawkish tone. UK data is not great, USD real yields are stronger, and there are still global tensions which are normally strong for the dollar, that said, this pair has broken out of weekly descending path with some umph, so this could well be the start of a reversal. Normally in these cases we get a retracement first to fill the fair value gap, we're also at strong resistance so will I believe we have to fall back to attract more buyers. Overall I think we could be looking at a reversal so will be keenly watching the move down with tight SL but with an expected target around 1.221.
Short
by Finchcliffe
GBPUSD: Rejection from trendline, supported by fundamentals?As we can see price has is currently respecting the descending trendline again. I'm expecting the BoE to maintain their hike-pause stance, this result is already baked into the price... I'm placing a small trade on the basis that my expectations will be correct... If there's a pause or reduction (highly unlikely) I'm expecting a fall back to around 1.208 to continue the creation of the wedge, important not to be greedy here as I feel like we could break out of the wedge at anytime, so probably will be considering buys once this trade is closed and keep a close eye on PA in the LTF's. Let's see what the BoE do!
Short
by Finchcliffe
5
GBPCHF November 2nd, 2023Based on the Daily timeframe for GBPCHF, a clear technical analysis reveals a notable development. The previous support trendline has experienced a downside breakout, now functioning as a resistance zone. Currently, the price is approaching this trendline, showcasing a retest scenario. There's a potential for a bounce off this resistance area. This probability is reinforced by the stochastic indicator, specifically with parameters set at 5,3,3. These settings are well-suited for the D1 forex market, where the 5-day (weekly) average aligns with the market's open days (Monday to Friday). The stochastic has crossed above the overbought (>80), indicating a potential reversal. In terms of price targets, a decline is anticipated towards the 1.09-1.08 range. It's advisable to set a stop loss if the price surpasses the current resistance level. This analysis aims to provide a straightforward and easily understandable overview of the GBPCHF pair's current technical situation.
Short
by DNP-FX
4
GBPUSD: Expecting a bounce from hereLooking at this pair and comparing it to the DXY index I think there's more likely to be a bounce from here, than a further bearish extension. DXY is failing to break a descending dynamic trendline, it's currently retesting again and showing signs of rejection. Fundamentals were good for DXY today but the price didn't react as I would have expected, which suggests the bears are strong here. GBP showing a nice bullish pinbar on the 4HR today (even though this was followed by a bearish one following rejection from resistance), we're now back down to this region as a retest but has slowed. I may be wrong, but with GBP rejecting support and DXY rejecting resistance, we could see a nice strong move, watching LTF's for my entry, target 1.225 to retest the descending dynamic trendline that stopped yesterday's advance - we may breach this on this occasion, if we do I'm noting an uptrend (HH's and HL's) on higher timeframes.
Long
by Finchcliffe
6
GBPUSD: Rejection at descending trendlineWe saw GBPUSD spike today following the favourable employment news and then reject the descending trendline (confirmed with doji and then rejection). Fundamentally there has been negative PMI data (manufacturing was green but still below 50) to support my view, so I think the bigger downtrend will continue. I also don't believe the USD is done yet, it will remain strong due to current International conflict, the risk this brings and the need for dollars. Keeping a close eye as always on the fundamentals this week, but if we breach 1.2165 - 1.250 (yesterdays support area) then we should hit my target area.
Short
by Finchcliffe
2
GBPUSD: Retracement, maybe reversal?Been watching this pair closely and made some good pips in the past week, however I got spooked last night and closed my sells (albeit 50 pips too early), but my calculation seemed to be broadly right. To me it's looking like a fake out below my support line and back through this resistance which is being retested but I think we're going back up. USD not flying as I think it should (and has previously) with conflict, I think we'll see some retracement in DXY which will benefit this pair, it's been too bullish for too long imho and I believe we'll see profit taking. GBP nailed on I think to raise rates again this month following the hanging of inflation data yesterday. This will benefit XXXUSD crosses in forex, commodities and indices. I'm only expecting this to retrace to the descending trendline for now which will be my TP.
Long
by Finchcliffe
GBPUSD: Bearish continuation, setting up for a nice drop?Expecting another hike from the FED in November, supported by hawkish comments across the board to focus on reducing inflation to 2%, this is supported by positive data. Real yields (bond yield - inflation) are positive for the dollar, they're negative for GBP and EUR. We may still see another hike from BoE but the economy is in a mess. Need to watch for US Inflation data and UK GDP data this week. Saw a nice bounce on this pair Friday but I think the fall will continue down to around 1.20, so waiting for a rejection from resistance on the LTF's and will then get in.
Short
by Finchcliffe
GBPAUD: Breakout of support and dynamic trendlineWe've had a breakout of both support and descending dynamic trendline with no retest, which I'm expecting. I can't see us retesting the dynamic trendline so considering shorts on the LTF's when we return to the resistance (formerly support) line. Expecting Aussie strength and Pound weakness, we may go higher with the interest rate decision from the BoE this week (so if I'm in a trade I'll often pull out before the news or at least get the SL tighter as oscillation often reduces in the few hours before the news), so will be on guard for this, however I don't think we'll break back into the rising trend.
Short
by Finchcliffe
GBPNZD: Retest of the ascending channel?As we can see GBPNZD has rejected support having broken through the long term ascending channel. According to my chart we've not retested the channel yet (obvs this isn't always the case, but I would have expected it as it was a long term bullish trend), so I'm thinking it will. As this is a retracement trade i'll be looking to TP before my resistance block just in case, but I'm thinking this will move higher before a drop down to at least current levels. This also hedges against my planned GBPAUD trade in an earlier idea.
Long
by Finchcliffe
2
GBPAUD: Trendline break, waiting for retestWe can see that GBPAUD has broken the weekly rising trendline with gusto at the end of last week. We have a small pinbar close on Friday which suggests a retracement back up to retest. I'm expecting strength to build up for the AUD with the positive signs coming out of China, we can see it is recovering across most crosses, and sterling weakening. BoE decision on Thursday is important, however I think whatever happens this is a good pair to trade and I'm expecting lots of short pips from this pair over the next few months. Watching out for the retest and then I'll be starting to short.
Short
by Finchcliffe
GBPCAD: Running out of steam, start of the reversal?In my opinion GBP is building up for a big fall this year, and it has to start with a lower high. Oil prices are rising, and as much as the FED don't want this, it's happening, and this should be good for CAD. I can see a rising wedge pattern, we can see spinning tops forming and it looks like we're running out of steam, I believe we'll initially fall back to the 1.7 support / round number. I'm waiting for my entry, I expected GBP to fall before now, but the BoC unemployment news wasn't supportive last week.
Short
by Finchcliffe
7
GBPUSD: The beginning of the end?I'm expecting full on GBP weakness over the coming weeks, regardless of what happens with the dollar. We've broken below the months of ascending trendline and so far failed to break back above, we have a beautiful bearish engulfing candle on the 4hr close from Friday. I get this pair wrong a lot (because I live in the UK and can see a car crash happening in slow motion...), so will definitely not be jumping in. We have big US CPI data on Thursday at 13.30 GMT, if inflation figures are worse (lower) than forecast then this will be good for the GBP in the short term - however I'm thinking that the best will happen is a failed retest of the trendline and I'm thinking we're starting the move back down - just deserts for how the BoE have performed imho.
Short
by Finchcliffe
GBPJPY short on the horizon Given the chart pattern and overextended nature of this pair I’ll be looking to short this cross if the pound continues to gain in strength. A short entry on this pair will be taken with considerable caution due to the divergence in monetary policies. That being said, given the UK’s lacklustre economy I think further rate rises, although needed, will be increasingly unpalatable for the BoE and so any sustainable strength in the pound may be unlikely in the weeks to come. On the 1d, I’ll be looking to see future divergences between the price and the indicators, which I’m not currently seeing. The delta is fast approaching a resistance zone if the price continues to rise. All of these points will likely converge if the price hits my point of interest 175 - 176 (green zone).
Short
by jamesfrench73
63