GBPUSD: I'm Buying NowI'm buying this now, GBP has been strong against all crosses and is standing up really well (compared to EUR / JPY etc) against an improving dollar (which I don't think will last).
I think we're gonna see GBP spike, let's see.
Sterling
GBPCHF: Retest incoming, then downWe've broken out of a long-standing sideways channel to the lower side, now bouncing off support to retest the broken channel.
I'm expecting a big dump in this paid once the retest is complete, UK economy vs Swiss economy, interest yields etc, no comparison.
The Swiss has been a stand-out performer against most crosses this year, GBP has been clinging on but I think we'll drop again soon.
GBPUSD: Expecting a bounce from hereLooking at this pair and comparing it to the DXY index I think there's more likely to be a bounce from here, than a further bearish extension.
DXY is failing to break a descending dynamic trendline, it's currently retesting again and showing signs of rejection. Fundamentals were good for DXY today but the price didn't react as I would have expected, which suggests the bears are strong here.
GBP showing a nice bullish pinbar on the 4HR today (even though this was followed by a bearish one following rejection from resistance), we're now back down to this region as a retest but has slowed.
I may be wrong, but with GBP rejecting support and DXY rejecting resistance, we could see a nice strong move, watching LTF's for my entry, target 1.225 to retest the descending dynamic trendline that stopped yesterday's advance - we may breach this on this occasion, if we do I'm noting an uptrend (HH's and HL's) on higher timeframes.
GBPUSD: Rejection at descending trendlineWe saw GBPUSD spike today following the favourable employment news and then reject the descending trendline (confirmed with doji and then rejection). Fundamentally there has been negative PMI data (manufacturing was green but still below 50) to support my view, so I think the bigger downtrend will continue.
I also don't believe the USD is done yet, it will remain strong due to current International conflict, the risk this brings and the need for dollars.
Keeping a close eye as always on the fundamentals this week, but if we breach 1.2165 - 1.250 (yesterdays support area) then we should hit my target area.
GBPUSD: Retracement, maybe reversal?Been watching this pair closely and made some good pips in the past week, however I got spooked last night and closed my sells (albeit 50 pips too early), but my calculation seemed to be broadly right.
To me it's looking like a fake out below my support line and back through this resistance which is being retested but I think we're going back up.
USD not flying as I think it should (and has previously) with conflict, I think we'll see some retracement in DXY which will benefit this pair, it's been too bullish for too long imho and I believe we'll see profit taking.
GBP nailed on I think to raise rates again this month following the hanging of inflation data yesterday.
This will benefit XXXUSD crosses in forex, commodities and indices.
I'm only expecting this to retrace to the descending trendline for now which will be my TP.
GBPUSD: Bearish continuation, setting up for a nice drop?Expecting another hike from the FED in November, supported by hawkish comments across the board to focus on reducing inflation to 2%, this is supported by positive data.
Real yields (bond yield - inflation) are positive for the dollar, they're negative for GBP and EUR.
We may still see another hike from BoE but the economy is in a mess. Need to watch for US Inflation data and UK GDP data this week.
Saw a nice bounce on this pair Friday but I think the fall will continue down to around 1.20, so waiting for a rejection from resistance on the LTF's and will then get in.
GBPAUD: Breakout of support and dynamic trendlineWe've had a breakout of both support and descending dynamic trendline with no retest, which I'm expecting.
I can't see us retesting the dynamic trendline so considering shorts on the LTF's when we return to the resistance (formerly support) line.
Expecting Aussie strength and Pound weakness, we may go higher with the interest rate decision from the BoE this week (so if I'm in a trade I'll often pull out before the news or at least get the SL tighter as oscillation often reduces in the few hours before the news), so will be on guard for this, however I don't think we'll break back into the rising trend.
GBPUSD: Bullish reaction is coming?Although we cannot yet rule out a new bottom on daily chart, from a technical point of view, we are approaching an interesting support area, and this should trigger a bullish reaction on the pair. That said, our short-term view is bullish and we will follow the development in the next few hours on intraday chart (Reversal Pattern formation is necessary to trigger the rally).
Trade with care
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GBPUSD - SHORTNew Week - Happy Monday
Price breakout of a correction after breaking and retesting a descending channel. I'm expecting price rally up.
GBPNZD: Retest of the ascending channel?As we can see GBPNZD has rejected support having broken through the long term ascending channel.
According to my chart we've not retested the channel yet (obvs this isn't always the case, but I would have expected it as it was a long term bullish trend), so I'm thinking it will.
As this is a retracement trade i'll be looking to TP before my resistance block just in case, but I'm thinking this will move higher before a drop down to at least current levels.
This also hedges against my planned GBPAUD trade in an earlier idea.
GBPCAD: GBP strugglingI think this is a good pair to short, with GBP struggling to get through resistance even with the dip in oil prices.
I'm expecting a fall back to support around 1.638 as my target.
GJ LTF RANGEGJ has been in this intraday range and we have now seen a breakout and retest we can aim for some sell trade
GBPJPY - Going shortGoing short within a support and resistance level range. Proper risk management is key.
GBPNZD: Selling into confluence of supportsWe can see that GBPNZD has broken below the mid-point of the rising channel.
Looking for sells going into the BoE rate decision this week, with NZD generally strengthening and GBP generally weakening.
Depending on what happens on Thursday we we'll see either a break of a bounce off this point.
I'm targeting 2.072 initially, where I see confluence of the rising channel and horizontal support.
GDPUSD: Cable is waiting for Thursday!Hello traders,
UK GDP and BOE decision making meeting could change the market direction.
Daily view
4H view
There are 3! entries and 1 TP for this pair.
Levels calculated order_block, regarding support and resistances, channel and pivot points.
GBPAUD: Trendline break, waiting for retestWe can see that GBPAUD has broken the weekly rising trendline with gusto at the end of last week.
We have a small pinbar close on Friday which suggests a retracement back up to retest.
I'm expecting strength to build up for the AUD with the positive signs coming out of China, we can see it is recovering across most crosses, and sterling weakening.
BoE decision on Thursday is important, however I think whatever happens this is a good pair to trade and I'm expecting lots of short pips from this pair over the next few months.
Watching out for the retest and then I'll be starting to short.
GBPCAD: Running out of steam, start of the reversal?In my opinion GBP is building up for a big fall this year, and it has to start with a lower high.
Oil prices are rising, and as much as the FED don't want this, it's happening, and this should be good for CAD.
I can see a rising wedge pattern, we can see spinning tops forming and it looks like we're running out of steam, I believe we'll initially fall back to the 1.7 support / round number.
I'm waiting for my entry, I expected GBP to fall before now, but the BoC unemployment news wasn't supportive last week.
GBPUSD: The beginning of the end?I'm expecting full on GBP weakness over the coming weeks, regardless of what happens with the dollar.
We've broken below the months of ascending trendline and so far failed to break back above, we have a beautiful bearish engulfing candle on the 4hr close from Friday.
I get this pair wrong a lot (because I live in the UK and can see a car crash happening in slow motion...), so will definitely not be jumping in. We have big US CPI data on Thursday at 13.30 GMT, if inflation figures are worse (lower) than forecast then this will be good for the GBP in the short term - however I'm thinking that the best will happen is a failed retest of the trendline and I'm thinking we're starting the move back down - just deserts for how the BoE have performed imho.
GBPJPY short on the horizon Given the chart pattern and overextended nature of this pair I’ll be looking to short this cross if the pound continues to gain in strength.
A short entry on this pair will be taken with considerable caution due to the divergence in monetary policies. That being said, given the UK’s lacklustre economy I think further rate rises, although needed, will be increasingly unpalatable for the BoE and so any sustainable strength in the pound may be unlikely in the weeks to come.
On the 1d, I’ll be looking to see future divergences between the price and the indicators, which I’m not currently seeing. The delta is fast approaching a resistance zone if the price continues to rise. All of these points will likely converge if the price hits my point of interest 175 - 176 (green zone).
GBPJPY - squeeze into continuationYen has been weak across all other currencies.
Sterling has had one of the best performances against it.
Will it continue? We shall see.
The chart favors continuation in my opinion, even though we are witnessing a rising wedge formation, which typically breaks to the downside. There are times also when it does the opposite. Also take note of the similar type of pattern we had in the beginning of June.
GBPUSD: My 4 scenarios for this weekThese are just my ideas, what I’m expecting, and why, with this week’s the big fundamentals.
Overview
Big market-moving news this week with Wednesday’s UK CPI, Thursday’s BoE Interest Rate Decision and Forecast, there is also FED Powell’s testimony in between the UK events on Wednesday.
Several things could play out with the UK news, which is what my scenarios are based on. I’m expecting Powell to be hawkish because even though it’s clear that the US is on top of inflation, they are still double their target and thanks to their economic performance they have room to keep tightening and can still avoid recession, imho.
The BoE on the other hand have a massive predicament. Inflation is out of control, far worse than the other G7 economies. Interest rate rises are squeezing the economy, UK mortgage rates are now hitting 6%. In my opinion another 1.25% interest rates will cause recession. The BoE moved too slow and are behind inflation, they have to keep hiking to do anything about it, but there will be a tipping point where the market sees this as a negative for the GBP.
UK Inflation / Interest Rates
BoE have consistently under-estimated inflation through this period. This time their forecast is higher than the previous month forecast (8.5% compared to 8.3% previous, inflation fell to 8.7% last time so I think they’ve been more realistic with their prediction this time). If inflation is coming down (I think it is), then we could see a better than forecast reduction (red), which could be bad for GBPUSD.
If it comes in lower (red) then it’s ‘more’ likely there’ll be a 0.25% rate hike, this is priced in, and I think this will cause GU to fall. If BoE are brave enough to go with the 0.5% outside prediction, then this could cause GU to rise.
If Wednesday’s CPI number shows inflation is above predication (green) (and likely to be rising as it was 8,.7% last time and the predication this time is 8.5%), then this further demonstrates that the BoE have been way off the mark in controlling it compared to the rest of the G7, which is not good. I do think short term this will be positive for GU, but only for banks making money, it’s terrible for the UK economy and the BoE. If it is green and BoE only raise rates by 0.25% then I think this may send GU down as it’s a further demonstration of their ineptitude. If they do go with the 0.5% hike in this scenario, then this could send sterling higher in the short term.
Either way and in each scenario, I think GU will struggle to get beyond 1.29 in this visit based on long term dynamic trendline, overall down-trend, a bubble of a credit based economy, better performing US economy and the US being the global currency (and expecting China performance below expectations), etc etc, and breathe….
Also, in technical news, I’m also seeing some divergence on the RSI, and GU is overbought.
My Scenarios
Here’s my scenarios on the chart, end of today I’m expecting to be around the 1.27 level on the chart based on retracement from Friday’s high and DXY having some room to move up to resistance (around 1.03), but let’s see what happens today and I'll review this again this evening.
1. Red CPI / 0.25% Hike
This is an inflation figure that comes in below the 8.5% prediction and the BoE raising rates by 0.25%.
This is what I think will happen and it will mean reversal.
2. Red CPI / 0.5% Hike
This is an inflation figure that comes in below the 8.5% prediction and the BoE raising rates by 0.5%.
This is what should happen if the BoE are brave enough, but I think it will worry markets about recession.
3. Green CPI / 0.25% Hike
This is an inflation figure that comes in above the 8.5% prediction and the BoE raising rates by 0.25%.
This is a terrible situation, inflation going up and the BoE still not having the balls to make up for lost time and tackle it head on.
4. Green CPI / 0.5% Hike
This is an inflation figure that comes in above the 8.5% prediction and the BoE raising rates by 0.5%.
In this scenario this is what I believe the BoE should do, it will likely cause GU to go up, but as I’ve said I personally think topside is limited by the prevailing downtrend. In this scenario there will be growing fears of a recession, change of government will be pretty much a given, so overall I still think this will be bad for GU in the medium term.
These are just my thoughts as we go into the next few days.
Interested to hear your comments so I can keep learning and adjusting my thinking!
GBPJPY PULLBACK SCENARIOThe British pound had a strong rally, starting from the ¥175 level and breaking through significant resistance levels. It even surpassed ¥180, a psychologically important mark. However, caution is advised as chasing the trade at these levels is risky. Markets don't go up indefinitely, and a pullback is expected. Lower prices are needed before considering entry. If the pound breaks below ¥175, it may decline towards ¥172.50, then ¥170. Overall, buying on dips seems favorable, and existing long positions require careful trade management.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
GBP/USD is in one-year highs - where is the next resistance?GBP/USD is in one-year highs - where is the next resistance?
In between 1.2867/85 lies a short term resistance line, the 55-month ma, the 200-weel ma and the 23.6% retracement of the entire move down from the 2007 peak. We recommend tightening up stops as we approach this tough zone as we would allow for some profit taking in this vicinity.
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