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Weekly update for GBPUSD, Brexit is at the doorThose who have been following the latest Pound trades will know we are already on the sell-side here. Here is the latest wave count on the weekly chart, we are playing the range set between 50.0% - 76.4% of the retracement leg since the January 2016. Dollar strength is coming via yields so we have large money on the move here, the leg will be fast and furious. Please leave a like and check out the other trades on the Tradingview portfolio. Thanks and good luck!
Short
by ridethepig
14
Brexit: Could Boris call new election?By Andria Pichidi - July 29, 2019 Sterling has started the week under a lot of pressure, which follows weekend polls showing, in one case, a 10-point “Boris bounce” swing in favour of the Conservative Party. This will up odds for the new prime minister calling a new election, which he needs to do, and win, if he wants to strengthen his negotiating position with Brussels (as things stand, Parliament would likely block a no-deal Brexit). Cable has printed a fresh 27-month low at 1.2300 while EURGBP has lifted back above 0.9000. Sterling is likely to remain biased directionally lower. Cable has trend Support at 1.2200 (Fib. level 127.2 December 2016 low). UK100 shrugs off no-deal Brexit risks and continues to benefit from a weaker Pound, but also confirmation from LSE Group of a USD 27 bln deal to buy financial data group Refinitiv. UK100 is the main outperformer among European stock markets this morning and up 1.2%. On the Brexit Front: A new prime minister, a new cabinet, and a new hard line, no-compromising stance on Brexit — calling on Brussels to bend on the Irish border backstop or else face the UK leaving without a deal. But there is little sign that the EU will offer anything more than is already agreed in the Withdrawal Agreement with former PM May. Newly appointed foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, accused Brussels of being stubborn while saying that the Irish backstop is “the most obvious glaring flaw” in the Brexit deal, and that the EU “must know that we’re serious” on leaving without a deal if necessary. An Irish government minister, Michael Creed, retorted by re-emphasizing the already oft restated EU position: that removing the backstop — which guarantees that the Irish land border will remain free flowing and open post Brexit (by effectively putting a border down the Irish sea if necessary) — “isn’t going to happen.” The major problem for Boris Johnson and his Brexiteer cabinet is that they are a minority government, depending on the 10 votes of Northern Ireland’s DUP to govern with a super-wafer-thin majority of just two in a Parliament that is against a no-deal Brexit, and with members in their own Conservative Party set on stopping the government from triggering a no-deal Brexit (joining with opposition in a vote of confidence if that’s what it takes). This renders the government’s negotiating position with the EU as simply put: weak. This is why Boris, despite the denials, is likely to risk calling a new general election, to seek a new and clear mandate from the public for a no-deal-if-necessary Brexit. With the leader of Labour, the principal opposition party, Jeremy Corbyn, unpopular, the latest polling suggests that the Conservative Party would win with an increased margin. This means that markets should take the possibility for an economically disruptive no-deal Brexit scenario seriously. Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
OANDA:UK100GBPLong
by HotForex
2
Brexit storms back onto centre stageBy Andria Pichidi - July 23, 2019 Brexit will leap back to centre stage now that the new UK Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, has been selected. Already Moody’s and Goldman Sachs’ analysts, among others, have warned of an increased likelihood for the UK leaving the world’s biggest free trade area without an agreement on divorcing terms or an outline of new trading terms. POUND The crowning of Boris Johnson as the new leader of the UK Conservative Party, with Johnson ready to be confirmed as Prime Minister today, is keeping Sterling under pressure, especially with BoE MPC member Saunders describing UK growth as “weak and below trend” in an interview with Bloomberg. Meanwhile, investors are raising their no-deal Brexit bets, which is also fuelling easing expectations. The Pound has remained under pressure, with Cable holding below 1.2500. A report by UK think-tank NIESR, meanwhile, that Brexit-related uncertainty may have already tipped the UK economy into recession has also been in the mix of sentiment fodder over the last day. Despite the correction from 1.2417 lows, the Pound remains in July below 20-day SMA, and below 50- and 200-day SMA since May. Hence, short term or medium term rallies considered as temporary before the reinforcement of another leg lower. Momentum indicators are extending lower, something that increases the potential of a retest of the recent low at 1.2380. Initial Resistance at $1.2480 and for the day at yesterday’s high at 1.2520. Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Short
by HotForex
GBPCHF - Triggered short. Start of a recovery or chance to sell?DAY TRADE - EXPIRES AT 9PM UK Trade Idea Trading within a Bearish Channel formation. A break of bespoke support at 1.2341, and the move lower is already underway. Bespoke resistance is located at 1.2387. The bias remains mildly bullish but there is scope for a move in either direction at the open. Further downside is expected although we prefer to set shorts at our bespoke resistance levels at 1.2385, resulting in improved risk/reward. Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile. We look to Sell at 1.2325 Stop: 1.2375 Target: 1.2225 Target 2: 1.2150
Short
by Signal_Centre
8
GBPAUD - Breaking lower from a flag patternDay Trade - Expires at 9pm today Trade Idea The medium term bias remains bearish. The continuation lower in prices through support has been impressive with strong momentum and shows no signs of slowing. Bespoke resistance is located at 1.7946. Prices are extending lower from the bearish flag/pennant formation. Further downside is expected and we prefer to set shorts in early trade. We look to Sell at 1.7945 Stop: 1.7995 Target 1: 1.7800 Target 2: 1.7750
Short
by Signal_Centre
Pro-no-deal-Brexit Johnson & SterlingBy Andria Pichidi - July 9, 2019 Brexit: There continues to be a dearth of anything approaching what might be called a substantive development. But there are signs of what the tone of “final” negotiation into the revised October 31st Brexit deadline will be. First off, the Conservative Party’s leadership looks set to deliver Boris Johnson as the new prime minister. His lead over his one remaining rival, Jeremy Hunt, looks unassailable. The new leader will be announced on July 23. Boris is a staunch Brexiteer, favouring leaving the EU without a deal on divorcing terms or any outline of a future trading relationship, which would rule out any economic transition phase. In the event this would see the UK adopt a WTO tariff schedule and trading terms overnight, which would be unprecedented move by a development nation and would cause a substantial deterioration in the UK’s terms of trade position. The idea is that the UK would then by free to negotiate trade deals, though this process would take years. Johnson has said that he doesn’t in fact want to leave without a deal, but is nonetheless serious about doing so if necessary, which is red meat to the Brexiteer political base. Recent polls have suggested that a new general election, with Boris as the Tory leader, would return the Conservatives with up to a 40 seat majority in Parliament. A new general election looks like a strong possibility, as soon as September. The Tories are presently a weak governing entity, leading a minority government in a Parliament intent on halting a no-deal Brexit scenario (weakening the government’s negotiating position with Brussels, in the eyes of Brexiteers). Given the polling, the new prime minister would surely be very tempted to resolve this by calling a new general election. This backdrop should keep the Pound under pressure. Cable printed a fresh 6-month low at 1.2455, which matches the 15-month low, while EURGBP printed a 6-month peak seen at 0.8996. A 1.6% y/y contraction in the BRC retail sales figure for June today, which thwarted the consensus forecast for a 0.8% rise, is the latest in a series of underwhelming data out of the UK, providing fresh fuel for the pronounced declining motion the UK currency has been seeing since early May. EUR-BP has now made this the eighth week out of the last nine where a new higher high has been set. EURGBP and GBPUSD Andria Pichidi Market Analyst Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
by HotForex
GBPJPY - Selling a restest of the triangleTrade Idea Broken out of the triangle formation to the downside. Continued downward momentum from 137.79 resulted in the pair posting net daily losses yesterday. There is scope for mild buying at the open but gains should be limited. We look for a re-test of the upward trending resistance. We have a 61.8% Fibonacci pullback level of 136.79 from 137.79 to 135.17. Further downside is expected although we prefer to set shorts at our bespoke resistance levels at 136.75, resulting in improved risk/reward. We look to Sell at 136.75 Stop: 137.15 Target 1: 135.70 Target 2: 135.20 Trade ideas & daily market report July 9th 2019 Market highlights Reduced expectations of aggressive Fed easing continued to support the US currency during Monday, although ranges were narrow. Equity markets lost ground as expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts declined further. Demand for the yen and Swiss franc weakened slightly as US bond yields edged higher with the Euro also unable to make headway. Gold prices also declined as bond yields increased and the dollar maintained a firm tone. Oil prices gained some support from Iran tensions, but failed to hold gains. Commodity currencies were unable to make headway amid a solid US currency tone with Sterling also losing ground. Bitcoin pushed above $12,000 which helped trigger further buying.
Short
by Signal_Centre
GBPCHF - Preferred trade is to sell into ralliesTrade Idea Broken out of the channel formation to the upside. Bespoke resistance is located at 1.2532. There is scope for mild buying at the open but gains should be limited. A higher correction is expected. Although we remain bearish overall, a correction is possible without impacting the trend lower. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. We look to Sell at 1.2530 Stop: 1.2570 Target 1: 1.2360 Target 2: 1.2305 Trade ideas & daily market report July 9th 2019 Market highlights Reduced expectations of aggressive Fed easing continued to support the US currency during Monday, although ranges were narrow. Equity markets lost ground as expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts declined further. Demand for the yen and Swiss franc weakened slightly as US bond yields edged higher with the Euro also unable to make headway. Gold prices also declined as bond yields increased and the dollar maintained a firm tone. Oil prices gained some support from Iran tensions, but failed to hold gains. Commodity currencies were unable to make headway amid a solid US currency tone with Sterling also losing ground. Bitcoin pushed above $12,000 which helped trigger further buying.
Short
by Signal_Centre
GBPUSD: Bottomed with Completion of Bullish BatThe price has bottomed within a 1-year range with multiple signs of reversal. A bullish bat pattern was formed while the price has broken above an immediate falling trendline. Besides, the current price could also be the beginning of the 2nd shoulder of an inverse head and shoulder. Aside from the technical aspect, the pound is simply undervalued for a long time and BOE hasn't shown any signs to consider cutting rate. The pound will always stand a chance to rally as long as 1.25 doesn't break.
Long
by AlgoVenture
1
Sell GBPJPY - Broken out of the triangle formationTrade Idea Broken out of the triangle formation to the downside. Continued downward momentum from 137.79 resulted in the pair posting net daily losses yesterday. Negative overnight flows lead to an expectation of a weaker open this morning. We look for a re-test of the upward trending resistance. Further downside is expected although we prefer to set shorts at our bespoke resistance levels at 136.10, resulting in improved risk/reward. We look to Sell at 136.10 Stop: 136.50 Target 1: 135.20 Target 2: 134.50 Day Trade
Short
by Signal_Centre
Triggered on GBPCHF - Video on why we bought this levelFX:GBPCHF , OANDA:GBPCHF , SAXO:GBPCHF Here is a video on GBPCHF. We posted a buy idea on the pair this morning (see the related idea). Just a quick run through on the reasoning behind it and why we thought it was a decent speculative trade to have a look at today. Feel free to comment if you have any questions or would like to discuss anything. Full details of the trade can be found on our wall or in the related idea link.
Long
by Signal_Centre