Sterling
GBPUSD Ripe for ReversalContinued Bullish movement yesterday as price broke and closed above daily moving averages. The moving averages haven’t yet crossed to the upside so we haven’t confirmed further bullish moves but these may now provide a level of support as we look to retest the downtrend in line with the refined Fibonacci retracement region. This could form the lower high in the trend to then follow price back down towards 1.3000 and even slightly beyond to test the long-term uptrend before next week’s GBP interest rate decision.
Here on the H4 timeframe price has formed new highs after an extended bullish leg. We have now seen a full Fibonacci retracement to the 78.6% level. Provided this level holds as resistance and price doesn’t close beyond here we can expect a reversal from here. I do anticipate some form of consolidation though to retest the downtrend once more in line with the 200ema. Overall I expect this confluence to hold price down but we’ll need to see this test and rejection to confirm this. Should we reverse we can set our targets at 1.3150 and then 1.3110. Otherwise, if this countertrend holds as support we’ll be seeing 1.3250 weekly resistance.
Potential 100 pip trades aheadPound has been moving strong but without any real long-term direction. We are approaching another key lever which is around 1.3175, it is also a 61.8 fib retracement level from previous bull run and the one before, seems like everything is lining up for a bullish run through the resistance we have touched yesterday. But also if we go below this level, we could see bears taking over and smashing the support 1.3050,... Ok, let's take it easy 1.3050 support is holding very strong with weekly confluences as well but if the 1.3150-1.3175 level wont hold we can expect at least a touch of 1.3050. Just wanted to give you guys a quick recap of what is happening, we don't have a trade yet, price action will determine nice entries but first, as said before lets see what price does around 1.3175.
Brexit Deal or Parity: Which is First?There are a few things in life that you think will never happen. Brexit was one of those things. With the continued uncertainty surrounding the exit from the EU, will we also see Parity with the US dollar or will the UK Government strike a deal? Trading Forex / CFDs is High Risk.
GBPUSD TURNING BEARISH BELOW 1.3205The British pound has fallen sharply lower against the US dollar, hitting 1.3169, after US President Trump warned British Prime Minister Theresa May that a soft Brexit plan would harm trade-relations between the US and the UK. The GBPUSD pair has now broke its established trading-range between the 1.3200 and 1.3300 levels and is turning bearish. Sellers will look to target the 1.3150 level, while buyers will once again try to reclaim the 1.3205 level.
The GBPUSD pair is bearish while trading below the 1.3205 level, key support is found at the 1.3150 and 1.3101 levels.
If the GBPUSD pair starts to once again trade above the 1.3205 level, buyers will target the 1.3255 and 1.3300 levels.
GBPUSD ONLY INTRADAY BULLISH ABOVE 1.3255 LEVELThe British pound has fallen sharply lower against the US dollar, hitting 1.3188, after the British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson resigned from the Conservative party in protest of British Prime Minister Theresa May’s soft Brexit plan. The GBPUSD pair had looked increasingly bullish prior to the news of Boris Johnson’s resignation, soaring to 1.3361. Sterling sellers will need to hold price below the 1.3205 level for further intraday selling, while buyers will look to stabilise price back above the 1.3255 level.
The GBPUSD pair is only bullish while trading above the 1.3255 level, key resistance is found at the 1.3313 and 1.3361 levels.
If the GBPUSD pair trades below the 1.3205 for a sustained period, selling towards the 1.3142 and 1.3101 levels seems possible.
GBPUSD H4With similarities to Aussie on the weekly time-frame we saw price form a bullish retracement to retest the downtrend at the back-end of last week. This was off the back of positive fundamentals and price seems to have formed it's lower high, rejecting the trend which is also in line with the refined Fibonacci region. Price has already broken the simple moving average and is testing the exponential moving average as support. Given the overall trend we remain bearish on this pair but we'd require a break back through this area of dynamic support before confirming our next leg to the downside targets at 1.3100, 1.3075 and 1.300. Should price hold at this level we'd require a break of the downward trend and moving average crossover to confirm bullish advancements. There are multiple resistance barriers for price to break through in confluence here so while possible I can't see the upside as a likely scenario.
Wait for the pullback to short Cable Cable has been in a long-term down trend for 10 years, it never recovered from the highs of the 2008 crash up @2.1 (those were great New York and Chicago shopping trips), we had a 50% fib pullback into 1.7, continuing the downtrend to 1.6 by the end of 2017, Cable was already falling before Brexit.
Since 2017 we've been in an uptrend within the boundaries of an ascending channel and now we're in a pullback, but have broken out of that channel after the Jan - April double top, bouncing at previous support @1.3065. The next moves are critical, do we continue the downtrend and retest 1.6 or break 1.34565 and move up to 1.4 and beyond.
We don't know the future, we never will. But Brexit and probabilities are high for a continuous move down, after a reasonable attempt at moving higher towards 1.345.
I won't be buying this pair unless I see a very strong move higher on a daily, 4H and 1H timeframe and one that holds support with strength, so I remain long-term bearish.
I'm looking to sell below 1.345 and holding long-term down towards 1.5, I may also hold larger swing trades to capitalise on the inside moves.
GBPJPY - Trading update 8th of JuneExpecting further bearish move. The Asian session made the yen strenghten (so GBPJPY weaken).
This sell off was quite significant making it difficult for price to continue higher.
Now looking for a drop towards 144. Potentially retesting the trendlines to make one more swing before continuing down
GBPJPYThe British Pound (GBP) against the Japanese Yen (JPY) pair denotes how many Yen are needed to purchase one Pound Sterling. GBP/JPY is a pair widely followed by scalpers and forex day traders. Day traders love the wide and volatile swings the pair tends to make on a day by day basis. There is enough liquidity in the pair for scalpers to quickly get into and out of trades. Additionally, forex technical analysis, such as support and resistance trading, tends to work well due to the amount of volume and forex transactions that takes place in the GBPJPY. This volume and liquidity carves technical patterns that shorter term traders closely follow. GBP/JPY is also a widely followed market for the medium term and longer term traders. Since the JPY is historically a low yielding currency, it is often used as a funding currency of a trade. Additionally, with the United Kingdom begin one of the larger economies in Europe, the Pound-Yen pair carry trade can be viewed as a proxy for worldwide economic health. On the other hand, when the markets experience severe risk aversion, this pair has been a proxy for market 'risk-off' moves as the carry trade gets reversed. As a result, GBPJPY has seen strong trends develop that can be in excess of thousands of pips. Due to the volume and liquidity available, retail sentiment can also be useful when trading those trends.