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Sterling

Short GBPUSD Trading IdeaUSD Bullish Rationale : 1. Optimism tax reform bill 2. It's been said that the market have fully priced in December interest rate hike but this "certainty" seems to ease investors in betting Dollar strength at the moment 3. Personally, I see no reason as of now to be bearish the dollar GBP Bearish Rationale : 1. Continued uncertainty and MESS over the brexit divorce deal 2. Another mess over the Irish border 3. Lack of tier-1 event to help boost the Sterling today Factors could invalidate the trading plan : 1. Positive development on the brexit divorce deal 2. Any geopolitical issues comes up such as the North Korean missile stuff etc etc Levels to trade : A. I would prefer if the price make another test on today's daily pivot. I will seek reversal signals or structural break and short the pair from here. The rationale of the target price (TP) is a) within the average daily range b) It has been tested and respected before c) Missed Pivot B. In the event where price could pierce through the daily pivot, this level is where I would find technical reasons to short the pair such as reversal candlestick and/or structural break and/or the old fashion (but still effective if used properly : Moving Average crossover!). The rationale of the target price (TP) is a) within the average daily range b) It's potentially today's low
Short
by sufiansaid
GBPJPY Trading Plans I am still banking on market's risk averse tone towards the U.K due to the Brexit divorce bill & Irish Border issue. I am not sure if the news of multiple attempts on UK PM May's life will weigh down the sterling but the Asian Equities market have been risk averse so far today (it it UK PM May's assasination attempt story or Trump's upcoming announcement of Jerusalem recognition as Israel's capital - risking wrath from several parties.. or a bit of both?), but the uncertaintly over the first issue is enough for me to be bearish bias on the sterling today. Poor Service PMI numbers yesterday on the economic data perspective, added to my conviction. A.1 and A.2 : are the two targets that I am looking the price to test before looking in if my technical parameters are triggered and grant me short the pair towards 150.00. B : If price breaks the A.1/A.2 levels, I would have to re-assess the market's mood at that time if the move was was due to bullish catalyst a bullish Sterling (I will explain it below at "Risks for the trade"). If I couldn't find anything, I will be looking to short from that level and target would be dependent on price strutures at the time. I always look for a trade setup that is minimum 2:1 C : If you deal with this pair, a correction/retracement sometimes hard to come by. If theres any pair that gives you the FOMO effect (Fear of Missing Out), its this pair! If the pair continues to come down and breaks 150.400, I am anticipating it will be halted at 150.00 or the missed pivot levels below that. I would be an observer if the price breaks 150.400. I hate to chase price. The only way I would think of shorting the pair is if it makes a correction/retracement towards A.1 and/or A.2.. but most probably, id make new plans by then.
Short
by sufiansaid
Dollar standby mode suggests it's ready to leap on tax newsThe greenback yet can’t go for a far swim, remaining near 93.00 mark for the second consecutive day. Senate Republicans approved the tax reform plan on Saturday, increasing likelihood of passing the bill, but aligning it with the Lower Chamber may not be easy, since the main discussion will unfold in determining the final burden on the budget, through which the reform will be financed. The House of Representatives voted on Monday to begin negotiations with the Senate, which brought the Republicans one step closer to reform. However, the last stage can also be stretched, especially if a cycle of revisions and approvals begins between the chambers. Major buoyancy about the reform was priced in the dollar after influential Republican John McCain became supporter of the reform. The macroeconomic front pleased with data on manufacturing sector. Factory orders decreased by only 0.1% after a jump of 1.7% in September. Such figures are consistent with an upward trend in the industry, as well as an increase in the capex of American firms looking forward to a gift from the White House in the form of a tax reform. The British pound remains highly vulnerable to reports regarding the progress of the EU-UK talks. High volatility led to rising attraction of the pair among speculators, which caused GBPUSD's rise on Monday to 1.3538 against the background of planned negotiations between Prime Minister Therese May and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. On Tuesday, the pair sank to the level of 1.3400, as the parties could not agree on the issue of Irish borders. As already mentioned earlier, the mid-term picture of GBPUSD looks very uncertain due to the prospects for strengthening of the dollar and significant hopes for progress in the Brexit negotiations, which can bolster bullish activity on sterling. Australian dollar rose on positive data about retail sales. Australian consumers revived demand amid rising inflation to 2% level and stable wage dynamics. AUDUSD practically left invisible in its dynamics the RBA decision to leave the interest rate unchanged at 1.5%. Arthur Idiatulin
by Tickmill
Trading Plan GBPJPY - Brexit No Deal Aftermath TradeThe rationale for this trade is pretty straightforward : The headline of no deal was made yesterday and more political uncertainty surrounding the United Kingdom. No monetary policy issues is in focus right now to help the sterling at the moment as well (today). Equities market in Asian session is a bit in a selloff (Risk Off Tone) gives slight safe haven inflow (Yen Demand). Risk for the trade (yes there's always risk. I have no crystal ball as others as well.. so stupid saying "it will this.. it will that.. it will go up.. it will go down.. very bad mindset to have as a trader") 1. New development on the brexit deal 2. Yen sell-off from a Risk-ON (whatever cause it might be)
Short
by sufiansaid
The Brexit Talk over Lunch - GBPJPY Trading PlanFirst of all, I have no idea how the outcome of this lunch will be reported. Bloomberg TV on, Ransquawk on, Forexlive.com on, fxstreet on.. etc etc. I do what I can. But my plan is clear, any reports on a deal have been strucked with EU over the divorce bill.. I will be buying Sterling. Vice versa if there is no agreement or negative outcome on the deal. I have a slight suspicion that the market have priced in of a deal have been strucked so there might be more move to the downside that is to the upside but the targets I mark for the upside move is still within the pair's average daily range.
by sufiansaid
GBPJPY Trading PlansRationale to trading plan (Long GBPJPY one) : 1. There was a news release that claim UK and EU have struck a Brexit Divorce deal which will be confirmed next Monday. UK officials denied this however but further reports after that "reconfirm" about the divorce deal 2. Equities Market have been up, signal potential Risk-On (hence Yen will be less demanded) *The Short GBPJPY Plan is a technical rationale. The idea is price is going back to Demand level around 147.00 (which potentially a good price to buy Sterling against Yen) Risk to the trading plan : 1. News that confirms that there was no brexit deal have been secured, which will shift market's mood from positive into uncertain 2. Escalated North Korea missile test issue which will potentially shift market's mood from greedy into fearful (Safe Haven - Yen Demand)
by sufiansaid
Weekly doji close for GBPAUDI had already decided to short this pair before realising that this weeks candle closed as a huge doji. (!) I rode the retracement wave up towards the trendline and the 60fib, and was waiting for a rejection of this area. (yes I do trade NFP) Both EMA, 60fib, daily res and the trendline are right in this zone and it was rejecting it on the 1H timeframe before it closed below for the day. In my opinion, the price action from both 1H, 4H, daily and specialy the weekly, I say this will continue to go down next week.
Short
by mrsaetervik
2
GbpCad formed a strong procyclical buy signalShoulder - Head - Shoulder pattern. Textbook like on this chart. Bulls also broke a strong downward trendline. We are clearly seeing a change of strength. Hop on the train on any dips. 1.67-1.66 is a strong support area with several confluences. I am expecting around 1.70 mild sell pressure and profit taking that could take us back toward the above mentioned buy zone, never buy high, but buy low in an uptrend and sell high in a downtrend! Stops should be placed below 1.64 swing. For me personally this can be seen as a high probability trade, but always trade with stop and proper risk management, because one never knows what will happen. Blessings to you all.
Long
by IamJeanPaul
3
GBPUSD Medium Term Swing set-upsGBPUSD Near Term - and Medium Term swing set-up Maybe about to get stopped out of the Sterling short trade here for a 10 pip loss (stop at 1.337) If so, it's a small loss at least - but need to cover the implications from here, if struck ... Sterling would then be likely to rally further by about 90 pips to 1.3475 - but intend to close down any near term longs there as it has become such a key area of interest, with fixed/static resistance from the summer period meeting dynamic/moving resistance from the highs - therefore a likely point of maximum impact/interest if it gets struck over the next day or two... So in the event that 1.3480 is broken on the upside by more than 15 pips (and any subsequent pull-back is then supported around the 1.3470 mark) Sterling would be making quite a big statement: 3 years and 3 months of downtrend is finally at an end, bringing more swing traders into the market...so will go long again at this point if we happen to see that little pull-back, (with stop about 20 pips below here at 1.3448 for small loss if wrong) looking for 1.363 initially, then a move up to test the upper parallel, followed by further strength to 1.4062. So 590 pips potential reward for 20-30 pips or so risk, if struck. DOWNSIDE for Sterling So if the short from 1.327 (stop at 1.337/8) gets taken out that's 10/11 pips blown - and if it doesn't will be looking to let it run a little, but only back to 1.3143 ish for 130 pips or so profit. No way can swing traders turn aggressively bearish of Sterling again unless and until it breaks below 1.3029, which would create a 250 pip downside target at 1.2777.
Short
by sumastardon