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Sterling

GBPUSD LONG THEN BIG SHORTS COMING UP!Hello traders. Today I am sharing my GBPUSD analysis. I am using the Elliot wave trading technique which I commonly teach Here we can see price is currently forming subwave 4 in wave 4. We are expecting subwave 4 to reject one of our fibonacci levels and not surpass our blue invalidation box below. Once we see bullish rejection we will be forming subwave 5 in our corrective wave. Once we see subwave 5 fully form, we would have fully formed our corrective wave and we will be looking for our BIG SHORTS which will secure atleast 1500 pips! We will update a more precise reversal location for our shorts closer to the time. Be sure to check out my other ideas
by Pips-Collector
1
London Bridge is Falling Down!CME_MINI:M6B1! U.K. financial markets went into a freefall last week as Prime Minister Liz Truss announced aggressive income tax cuts amid deep fiscal trouble. British pound is trading at $1.11 to USD, half of its value in 2007. However, it’s unfair to blame everything on a new PM and a new King. Both got their jobs just a month ago. Sterling’s downfall started at the Bretton Woods in 1944, where US dollar replaced it as the default currency in international settlement. More recently, Brexit made UK weaker and less integrated into the global economy. Let’s take a quick look at what happened in the last decade: David Cameron (2010-2016) • Mr. Cameron was reelected Prime Minister for a second 5-year term in May 2015 • To fulfill his campaign promise, he organized a referendum on June 23rd, 2016 • When asked if the UK should stay in the European Union, 51.9% of the voters said No • On July 13th, 2016, Mr. Cameron resigned Theresa May (2016-2019) • Theresa May became the new Prime Minister after Mr. Cameron resigned • In the following three years, she failed to negotiate exit terms with the EU • On July 24, 2019, Theresa May resigned Boris Johnson (2019-2022) • Former London Mayor Boris Johnson replaced Theresa May as Prime Minister • He engineered a hard Brexit in January 2020 without finalizing exit terms • Johnson led UK government through global pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict • On July 7, 2022, Boris Johnson announced his resignation Liz Truss (September 6th, 2022 - Present) • On September 23rd, Liz Truss announced the so-called “UK mini-budget” • Key points: cut income tax from 20% to 19% and abolished a 45% higher tax rate • New budget was received poorly by investors, causing market panic last week When each of the Prime Ministers left office, they saw Sterling weaker than the day they assumed office: Cameron, from $1.7 to $1.3; May, from $1.3 to $1.2; Johnson, from $1.2 to $1.15; Truss, in less than a month, from $1.15 to $1.09 before rebounding to $1.11. Where Will Sterling Go from Here? Recent depreciation of Sterling can be explained by the Interest Rate Parity (IRP) theory. IRP states that the interest rate differential between two countries is equal to the differential between the forward exchange rate and the spot exchange rate. It basically says that a country with higher interest rates would lead to a stronger currency. • In 2022, the Fed raised interest rates five times for 300 basis points (bps), to 3.00%-3.25% • In comparison, the Bank of England raised rates three times for 125 bps, to 2.25% • European Central Bank raised rate only once for 75 bps, to 0.75% • The Fed outruns the Bank of England and the ECB in both interest rate level and the frequency of rate hikes • As prescribed by the IRP, aggressive Fed tightening results in a strong dollar, and weak Sterling and Euro In the next year, I expect the pending global recession could result in a soft landing in the US, but hard landing in both the UK and the European continent. In the long run, exchange rates reflect the relative strengths of two countries. The divorce of the UK from the EU makes them both weaker players on the world stage. In 2021, the European Union had an aggregate GDP of $17.9 trillion, making the EU Block the 2nd largest economy in the world behind the US. However, after exclusion of UK’s $3.11 trillion GDP, the 27-nation EU would rank 3rd behind China. UK ranks 5th, after the United States, China, Japan, and Germany. This is a far cry from the mighty British Empire which accounted for a quarter of the world economy in 1870. Today’s British Commonwealth is a loose network of countries with shared culture and history. None uses Sterling as legal currency except for the UK. How to Trade a Bearish View in British Pound? The next Fed rate-setting meeting is scheduled on November 1-2. October may be a calm month in terms of US monetary policy actions. However, in a crisis mode, it’s quite possible for both the Truss administration and Bank of England to utter emergency measures to strength the British financial markets, with Pound Sterling included. I would watch the British government actions closely in the next few weeks. We could wait for a rebound of Sterling before putting on the Short Futures trade. CME Micro GBP/USD futures ( CME_MINI:M6B1! ) has a notional value of £6,250. Initial margin is $255 per contract. December contract (M6BZ2) is currently quoted at $1.1172. Barring a new "Lehman moment", the Fed would stay on its course to raise rates and fight inflation. I expect dollar to resume its rise against the Sterling in November and December. On July 13th, my trade idea, The Demise of Euro Is Not Greatly Exaggerated, called for shorting the Euro. The Euro has since fallen a whopping 2% to $0.98 from on par with the dollar. My opinion on a bearish Euro CME:6E1! still holds today. Financial market is extremely volatile this year. Getting an information edge increases your odds of success in managing risk. I suggest leveraging real-time market data for a better gauge of market situation. TradingView users already have access to delayed data. A Pro user could upgrade to real-time CME market data for only $4 a month, a huge discount at the time of high inflation. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME:6B1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
48
DXY Sells off As the Euro and Sterling RallyThe DXY saw the retracement we have been discussing today, owing to a massive rally in the Sterling and Euro after the BoE bought UK bonds. This is likely to be temporary, as persistent hawkish Fed rhetoric is likely to keep interest rates high in the US, boosting the dollar further. We are currently seeing support in the 112.70's just a bit below where we anticipated support at 113 or so. If things continue to go south, we could retrace all the way back to 111.37, otherwise we will likely make a run for highs again.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
#GBPUSD lowest level since 1985! Britain to suffer in the2020's Shown is just a simple chart for the British Pound. For most of this charts life the #POUND has traded above the violet shaded S&R zone until the #BREXIT vote which led to the breaking of major support. As you can see after breaking below the brown shaded S&R zone it has reversed its role to now resistance from below. #GBPUSD has been forming the blue rectangle which has now made a new all time low in the history of this currency. I believe it will enter a new trading zone over the next few years... with a possibility of continuing on to its ultimate target of 0.71 meaning less than 3/4 of a dollar will buy 1 Great British POUND Even though #BITCOIN, #GOLD, #SILVER are coming under pressure At some point British citizens would be advised to seek shelter in alternate forms of money.
Short
by BallaJi
3
GBPUSD furute depended on so many antithetecal factors! Pound-sterling is struggling to break it's MA100! If it does so, there MA25 might be a perfect dynamic level for responds of the pair. MA25 might be a good dynamic level for short trades too! So I'll just take this pair under observations and I will not trader until the yellow box is broken. Both green and red levels are strong. The red line is aggregation of supply zone and VP of the resistance and may coincidence with MA200. The green line is also strong support level. wining of bulls is much more probable due to fake break out of 7th of September.
by AliSignals
Bias is still for lower levels on GBPCHFGBPCHF - Intraday - We look to Sell at 1.1305 (stop at 1.1330) Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Previous resistance located at 1.1300. There is ample scope for a move lower from this important resistance. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited. Our profit targets will be 1.1203 and 1.1171 Resistance: 1.1300 / 1.1420 / 1.1527 Support: 1.1218 / 1.1160 / 1.000 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
Short
by OANDA
Short term relief on GBPAUDGBPAUD - Intraday - We look to Buy at 1.7000 (stop at 1.6930) Previous support located at 1.7000. Previous resistance located at 1.7100. Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 1.7000, resulting in improved risk/reward. A move through 1.7100 will confirm the bullish momentum. Our profit targets will be 1.7200 and 1.7225 Resistance: 1.7100 / 1.7150 / 1.7200 Support: 1.7050 / 1.7000 / 1.6950 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
Long
by OANDA
Buying dips on EURGBPEURGBP - Intraday - We look to Buy at 0.8575 (stop at 0.8540) We are trading at oversold extremes. This is positive for sentiment and the uptrend has potential to return. The hourly chart technicals suggests further downside before the uptrend returns. We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher. Our profit targets will be 0.8675 and 0.8720 Resistance: 0.8630 / 0.8720 / 0.8825 Support: 0.8530 / 0.8430 / 0.8340 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
Long
by OANDA
4
No clear indication the downward is coming to an end on GBPNZDGBPNZD - Intraday - We look to Sell at 1.9000 (stop at 1.9100) Previous support located at 1.8850. Previous resistance located at 1.8900. Trend line resistance is located at 1.9000. There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels. Our profit targets will be 1.8750 and 1.8700 Resistance: 1.8900 / 1.9000 / 1.9100 Support: 1.8850 / 1.8800 / 1.8750 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
Short
by OANDA
We look to sell rallies on GBPUSDGBPUSD - Intraday - We look to Sell at 1.1655 (stop at 1.1725) Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. Buying pressure from 1.1498 resulted in prices rejecting the dip. The current move higher is expected to continue. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited. We look to sell rallies. Our profit targets will be 1.1455 and 1.1330 Resistance: 1.1840 / 1.2015 / 1.2155 Support: 1.1500 / 1.1330 / 1.1000 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
Short
by OANDA
1
The 200 period moving average may provide resistance on GBPJPYGBPJPY - Intraday - We look to Sell at 162.50 (stop at 163.00) We are trading at overbought extremes. This is negative for short term sentiment and we look to set shorts at good risk/reward levels for a further correction lower. The 200 period moving average should provide resistance at 162.60. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Our profit targets will be 161.00 and 160.50 Resistance: 163.50 / 165.40 / 168.40 Support: 160.50 / 158.60 / 155.60 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
Short
by OANDA
Bias is still for higher levels on EURGBPEURGBP - Intraday - We look to Buy at 0.8600 (stop at 0.8565) Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. We are trading at overbought extremes. A lower correction is expected. The bias is still for higher levels and we look for any dips to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher. Our profit targets will be 0.8700 and 0.8825 Resistance: 0.8720 / 0.8825 / 0.8900 Support: 0.8630 / 0.8530 / 0.8485 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
Long
by OANDA