Sterlingselloff
GBP/AUD ShortMarket Makers Drive for Liquidity from and off of Fridays High of Day Close. We have seen a clear spike through the region and now a perfect time to get short down to the next demand level.
GBP/AUD
GBP/USD Brexit UPDATE *Until Article 50 is Triggered*Good Morning, Afternoon and Evening Traders
A week later from my post "Sterling heading for 1.21 level?", the cable has yet again pushed into the very low levels after UK Prime Minister Theresa May stated last week that triggering article 50 would mean the UK not having access to the single market. This wasn't great news for the cable at all, and consequently pushed the cable into eyebrow raising levels, previously seen in the October flash crash.
What now?
1.21 appears to be the cables key support/resistance level, so that is most definitely a zone to look out for. The blue sloping trend-line has been broken, which I had mentioned If was broken would indicate further selling pressure into the 1.20 level. I am also looking for potentially a retest of the sloping support trend-line, as price action may have a short-term rally and then fall away back into the 1.20/1.19 level. I'm still remaining short in this market, and i will keep you all updated on any changes.
Any questions or additional thoughts you want to add, feel more than free to comment below! More updates coming soon, Ike Okeke.
CABLE SHORT TO 1.30: Fundamental and TechnicalGBPUSD is trading above 1.33 today, despite the broad risk-off sentiment which has seen JPY up on the day.
Fundamentally: Fed members are hawkish, and at least 1 rate hike is on the table this year. September is a close call - and if we believe the hawkish rhetoric of the FOMC recently - the market is underpricing a rate hike in September. This is bullish for USD.
The UK has seen a slew of good data, however the risks of Brexit remain, as well as the uncertainty about the process itself. Furthermore, it is likely that BoE cut rates in November to protect the economy from such risks, in the event they do arise. QE is still ongoing, however GBPUSD trades above pre-QE levels. This may mean Sterling is overvalued in the near term.
Technically: there is strong resistance at 1.345 / 1.35. The hourly chart shows strong divergence above 1.34. There is much risk to the downside - 500 pips till the post-Brexit low of 1.28.
CFTC data: a few weeks ago, GBP shorts were at record highs. Since then, shorts have reduced. This suggests there is potential for shorts to start building positions again, and that the GBP short squeeze came to an end when Cable was abruptly rejected from 1.345.
Many major banks forecast Cable below 1.30 by the end of the year. I agree with this, and am short from 1.33 until 1.30, after which I will re-enter short on pullbacks or on a clear break of 1.30.
Preparation for 120 possible 117 on GBPJPY WEEKLY OUTLOOKAfter Anticipating Last weeks drop to 128. we were able to making a beautiful 600 pips holding strong trades down to last weeks D point on our ABCD, this week i am expecting a steady move down to the 120.5 price area in consistency with our next POI. right now we have a possible smaller bat pattern forming on the 15 minute chart at 131.4 and i am expecting 131.7 before taking its dive down to 127.9 , retracing and going all the way for 120.5. But we may just as well see 117 as this was my first analysis 3 hours after Brexit will post updates as needed. feel free to ask questions.
***I will never give out signals on when to Take or close trades, i am simply showing where i think price will be heading my outlook on the pair though i always trade everything i post.****
FADE THE GBP RALLY - GBPJPY & GBPCHF SHORT - 200 TO 300 PIPS TPWanted to post a quick message telling people to sell the rally for 100-200 pips dependant on how quickly you get on the short..
Volatility is trading lower (as we expect in a rally) however it WILL pick up again/ reverse once it bottoms out - which i think is now!
The trend for all GBP pairs is LOWER hence dont fight the trend with longs INSTEAD when you see GBP pairs in the green +0.7%-+1% look for good resistance levels to short.
GBP is only going to extend lower in the long run with Lower inflation (yesterdays CPI print missed at 1.2% core and 0.2% CPI) and also as Brexit sell-offs continue - this is merely a recovery from the 5 days of losses so short at these levels is a high probability low risk trade - short it whilst the volatility/ price trades expensive IMO.
Prices above 151.5 are the high probability/ lowest risk shorts possible, if we see 1.522 that is the high of the week so I suggest going 8/10 short at these levels for more than 300 pips to 1.492 low.
The reason I like short GBPJPY and GBPCHF is descibred in detail in "relative value" posts attached to this one!
SHORT CABLE: HISTORICAL GBPUSD v EURUSD CORRELATION CYCLESOn the 1D time frame, a strong positive correlation relationship emerges - where previously on the 4h time-frame the correlation looked relationship-less and "noisy".
However, looking back at the Daily correlation over the last 2-3 years for GU and EU one noticeable and significant trend emerges -
A steep fall in correlation, either from positive-lower positive, or positive to negative, is historically ALWAYS followed shortly by a plummet/ Sell-off in GBP$.
Thus as we see below GU v EU correlation has been descending and has just turned negative - so in my opinion we should consider selling GU as if history holds true an aggressive sell off on the daily is close by.
I also like short GU fundamentally over the next 4 weeks especially but also 12months for:
FOMC 16th June - hawkish or hike must push GU lower.
BREXIT 23rd june - UK Referendum uncertainty will inevitable price GU lower than 1.43 at somepoint before or on the 23rd, even if briefly - just like GU priced lower as Scottish Independce referendum loomed (which is less of a risk but equally as likely to happen)
Economic Divergence - Fundamentally the UK economy and financial markets are not as robust as the US due to a lack of innovation and a poor technology sector, which massively will affect productivity, the recovery and future growth (especially as moores law becomes questionable).
This economic divergence will be priced in as lower GU as investors in the long run price such economic differentials as speculation in future monetary policy divergence.
TRADING CORRELATION PT 2- GBPUSD: SHORT CABLE ON NEG EUR$ CORR XOn the 1D time frame, a strong positive correlation relationship emerges - where previously on the 4h time-frame the correlation looked relationship-less and "noisy".
However, looking back at the Daily correlation over the last 2-3 years for GU and EU one noticeable and significant trend emerges -
A steep fall in correlation, either from positive-lower positive, or positive to negative, is historically ALWAYS followed shortly by a plummet/ Sell-off in GBP$.
Thus as we see below GU v EU correlation has been descending and has just turned negative - so in my opinion we should consider selling GU as if history holds true an aggressive sell off on the daily is close by .
*please see next article where i confirm this trend by looking at the Daily zoomed out*
