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EURUSD: Still more EUR upside in store to 1.1880EURUSD Don't get Spiked in FOMC aftermath Eur stays under pressure whilst trapped within the parallels - a break above the upper parallel means trend change back to positive for EUR - not a spike above the parallel (FOMC) - a successful break and hold on retest to know that trend is changing back to positive for EUR. Update: A fantastic break that we usually only see in the crypto markets. But today the fiat paper currencies caught the fever. EUR is strong above support at 1.1813 and should bounce here at lowest on any consolidation from here before rallying further to 1.1880 *The first section was written for hedge funds ready for the run up and aftermath of FOMC meeting - to simplify and de-noise the event It's not much use for trading purposes now (TV had an embargo limit running 24 hours ago when it was uploaded and thought it would do it automatically when time limit expired. Wrong. So many limits to getting information out with so many markets to cover. This is not the way. But the price action here is worth uploading for newer traders: put the parallels on your own chart with a 5 minute chart and see how perfectly EUR comes back to test the parallel from above - one last perfect kiss - before it flies higher through uncontested space above it. The whipsaw you see is normal crap after an FOMC meeting - but out of chaos emerges perfect order. Just takes a little time. You don't need to get caught in the noise. You need to get caught in the aftermath. Sometimes it pays to wait. Hedge funds do. Why not you?
Long
by sumastardon
BTGUSD Grinding higher and still looking goodBTGUSD Update BTG never made it to 188 entry point, which was calculated by it hitting the long term rising support at the bottom of the chart - unfortunately 1 day earlier than it did - close but no cigar. If you got the eventual low at 190 bang on by watching and waiting that extra day you have been well rewarded for that patience with BTG up 45% in 36 hours since then. Right now there's a battle raging between bears hitting down hard from 278-275 with a series of pins forming from above, and yet from below the bulls are meeting all sales and absorbing them ...pulling assistance from the strong speed line that 's supporting the move from the secondary low at 200. This still looks good whilst that support line holds (stops for longs under here, moving up under price) Likely to keep grinding higher - stay with it or pick some up...should reach 340-344 fairly soon where look to take profits again if touched.
BLong
by sumastardon
UKOIL: Brent testing support off the old highs. Strong stillBrent Crude Oil UKOIL Brent recently broke the long term parallels that had carried it faithfully within its force ever since the lows at 44. Now it's almost exactly 50% higher, with a new high set at 65.70. We were short on the break below the parallel and then closed out around 61.15 for around 90 pips profit. Good thing we did. Bad thing we didn't go massively long again there with stops just below for a tiny loss if wrong at that point. Easy to say now, and we would have in 'normal' circumstances, but that big broken parallel above was stopping it from even being contemplated. What a shame. A parallel that had been so faithful for so long now let us down with a poor technical signal (in hindsight only, unfortunately) for the first time since inception from the lows. Sometimes even your best girl/boyfriend can let you down. The resulting 450 pip rally has blown every bear clean out of the water, creating a massive impulse wave which is contained within the parallels shown on the chart. It is now probing the intersection of the lower parallel with fixed support at 64.25, the old highs - it's a buy here with stops below 64.15 for small loss if wrong. It's a sell again when the upper parallel is tested . Brent remains strong whilst travelling within the impulse wave and only turns near term negative again for test of 63.03 if the lower smaller parallel is lost at any point from here. Until we see that happen, look to buy dips to this smaller parallel with stops below it by 15-20 pips
FX:UKOILLong
by sumastardon
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Officially left the Building Last Night Bitcoin Update Still strong whilst within the new Parallels Having left the building (contraints of the last paralllel) last night Bitcoin went on a tear, nothing to hold it back now. After bottoming a second time at 13083, just under the 13210 next buy point and under the old parallel by 130 points...this would have stopped out the long from 13210 (in all likelihood, most probably using 100 point stop at that point so a good trade that would have been stopped out was at least avoided. But that doesn't excuse not getting long agin from 13826 level once it had been regained and thoroughly tested from above and survied the onslaught perfectly, with Bitcoin coming back down to test that level precsiely before bouncing away and now 900 points higher still...we should have had ALL that trade, every damn point. Another 900 points not won. Would trade that notional 100 point loss for that win though. Shoulda woulda coulda. Move on now.... Now Bitcoin is tracking a new set of parallels and stays good whilst within them. But it's beginning to tire and we are close to the 15 number now. Stay long here if you are already and only close out once the lower parallel is lost, looking for another test of 13826 where we look to get long again with stops 60 points lower if touched.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
7
ETHUSD Beware if still long hereETHUSD ETH is breaking down and extremely vulnerable whilst below the resistance line falling from the highs. It's a sell off that line, with stops above it. It looks like this will fall away in stages, with each fixed line of support offering a chance for day traders to close shorts and then sell again as it rises to test the line above it. There are some nice, big very profitable ranges opening up below now. It will try to put up a fight around 378, and has already spiked to just above the line today ...but it's quite likely to fail is what the chart is sadly saying. If you are long here for some reason, please sell. You'll be able to buy his way cheaper soon. That outlook only changes once the dynamic from the high is beaten on the upside from here. Only then will this flip from negative to positive 2 hours ago: ETH is in a mess. Sell any longs picked up for small profit/break even - can short it too if day trading. We can get this cheaper later on. This could be a very good opportunity coming up to get long at really good prices over the next 24-48 hours. Be flat or short of all baby Alts for now. This is a good opportunity coming up...powder dry, or short for now
BITTREX:ETHUSDShort
by sumastardon
BCHUSD Still negative despite bounceBCHUSD Still Negative despite bounce BCH duly had the full-flush out we were looking for, hoping to get long around 1180 and at 1126 with a stop 'at least 10 points lower than 1124'. The pin bar extends just below the last buy point by 23 points. If you got that low without being stopped out then you win trader of the day award...close to perfect, but marred by the stop - (too cautious, over-concerned with newbies joining and trying hard to stop any big losses from occurring) Anyway this still looks in bad shape. If long still take profits or put a stop under 1280. It is still vulnerable to bear attacks whilst unable to break and hold above 1376. Looks like a short again once 1280 gives way, back to 1180 to 1100 range . Pressure here will only lift if BCH can regain and hold on to 1376.
BShort
by sumastardon
6
BTGUSD steady whilst it holds the trend lineBTGUSD BITCOIN GOLD DOLLAR The rally today is thin and grindingly dull, but it's steady. Better to be long with a stop under the little uptrend for the day than flat. But if at any point the day's supporting line is broken it will likely force price down 25 to 30 points to 340-330 range where it becomes a buy once more. This thing has already lost the protection of the bigger trend line which is now acting as resistance. It's not nearly as good looking as BCHUSD, but so long as the this new dynamic holds up it cannot be shorted, only bought, with stops below the parallel until the pattern changes and tells us to reverse.
BLong
by sumastardon
BItcoin: BTCUSD Tracking within the the parallel, still steadyBitcoin Dollar BTCUSD Steadily grinding higher within the parallels Lost the track of this yesterday, getting precise angle of the parallels out by a critical couple of degrees. It meant the break of the parallel yesterday was out and so far no bears have dared to challenge this ascent. Very bad and it means that wins here on the day were severely eroded by bad calls off a badly drawn parallel that was still shaping itself into perfection during the day. The idea was to buy off the parallel and only turn negative again once the parallel was broken. Right idea/ wrong parallel. Well now the parallel looks very trustworthy. There are 4 parallels now, with margins of error denoted by the two outside parallels. Bitcoin is still a buy off any retest of the lower parallels. It becomes a major short again only when the lowest parallel is broken to the downside. It should then become resistance on retests, showing that the trend is now turning negative in the near term and finally opening the door to bear territory in the nearer term. First support lies at 9715 - a brek below here triggering a good shorting opportunity back to 9365 at least and quite likely to 9036 before the rally recommences.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Overall Still Still Positive at higher levelsOverall dull right now but with a positive undertone, still, at these levels. We look to buy from lower, closer to 7531 if touched or, if very lucky, on any sharp fast test of the lower parallel which would also be viewed as an excellent buying opportunity, should we be lucky enough to see it later in China/London on Monday. Unlikely, but it's Bitcoin. If unsuccesful from lower levels the next buy point will come on a break above that upper parallel with stops under 7700.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Still stuck in neutral but not for long UPSIDE from here Stuck in Neutral Still - Shock...since when was Bitcoin neutral? Bitcoin is doing its best to defy the bears and is technically sound above 6440. It's still a buy on dips to the pivot at 6470-6440 with stops just under 6420 for small loss if wrong But trade is slow and whilst below that old dynamic support at 6585 now it's still twitchy and vulnerable - but once 6640 is broken on the upside it will likely push on to 6730-6750 quickly and then come off again as day traders unload at 6730-6750...if it does this look to see if it starts to find support around 6580, off that old medium term dynamic and if so look to buy with stop no more than 50 points under the line - so long as the pivot at 6470-7440 holds, there's still a chance that Bitcoin is building up momentum for a surge higher - an AbC pattern with an upside target at 7450-7550. But that only stands a chance if the near term double top at 6750 can be beaten, to set the move off and then major resistance potential at 6943 is broken on the upside. We can easily beat the double top but 6940-6950 is likely to prove difficult to break, almost certainly on the first attempt. To see that happen though, Bitcoin has to break above 6750 and then hold on the next retest as there's more resistance just above at 6810 - so if it breaks above the double top at 6750 and goes to 6810 , comes off and then holds up at 6750 it can be bought with stops about 50 points lower. Another way to play the breakout, much more straight-forward, is simply to follow a break above the little dynamic resistance line running down from the recent high if we see it. The stop can be quite tight under the line, targeting 6940 where look to close out (and short with stop 50 points above if a day trader) DOWNSIDE from here Looking to short if 6440 gives way for fast test of 6312 , closing out there as it could well bounce back up to 6440-6475, giving a second chance to short here with stops above 6500 for small loss if wrong. Then if 6300 gives way at any point we can turn more aggressive, with swing traders joining the rout, looking for another, bigger decline back to 5747 most likely - a good trade if we see price action develop as above.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
3
Brent Crude Oil: UKOIL Still not too late to short BrentBrent Crude Oil UKOIL Update Had to update this position via original comment whilst embargo was still on, repeated here (sic): Hva etaken a short position with tight stop at 64.72 but ready to reverse, as above. High so far 64.62 - close but not hit yet. That has proved to be the high so far as the Opec meeting gathered. Still don't think it's too late here to short. It should come off all the way down to the lower parallel at around the 60 mark for 370 pips from here, but the first downside target is 61.67, still good for 200 pips here, give or take. Am lowering the stop now to 64.30 to get out with about 15 pips profit if it goes wrong from here. But sell just before the meeting worked very well last time, so hope we see the same kind of result this time too.
FX:UKOILShort
by sumastardon
5
Bitcoin:BTCUST impulse wave clear on 15 minute chartBitcoin Pressure says on whilst trapped within the impulse wave. Should hit 6928 soon and make a bounce...if short great - stay that way until Bitcoin can escape the parallel on the upside, whenever that comes (track it on 15 minute) and close out and go long for quick bounce to old support... That's Ok for day-traders, maybe, but swing traders are still advised to sit tight for now until dust settles. Depending on how slick you want to trade this wave, and spreads, the impulse wave will have 4 hits on the downside before it loses power usually - and each touch on the lower parallel is a closing point (short term for the big houses running this thing now) and a selling point when it touches the upper parallel. 4 times each side, 8 trades. But you need tight spreads, hence it's a game for Goldmans.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by sumastardon
Brent Crude: UK OIL More upside still once 60.60 is breachedUK OIL: Brent Crude: The medium term trend remains positive whilst within the parallels shown on chart, so whilst above 58 Brent looks to have more upside still, and should go on to test the upper parallel at 63.30 once minor resistance at 60.60 is breached. Will be looking to close down longs at 63.25ish and then wait to see price action develop at 63.30-63.50 range - if we don't see an aggressive red candle emerge it means hedge funds are still greedy for contracts and that upper parallel could yet get broken on the upside. Don't think it will, but need plan B in case - only if 63.60 gets breached on upside and then Brent comes back to test the upper parallel from above and then bounces back up through 63.60 will look to get long again for further strength up to 67.30 minimum. The next resistance above here lies at 69.73. Any test of this latter level is likely to mark the ultimate high of this run and if struck should present a good selling opportunity over the coming couple of weeks. More as this move develops...
FX:UKOILLong
by sumastardon
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Still Good within parallelsBITCOIN:BTCUSD Hope you managed to get long at 2755 - it was a peach of a hit on support - I missed it. It was so damn perfect too. Damn Der. Got so carried away with the oil complexes I took my eye off Bitcoin for an hour and so much has happened... It's come back to make a perfect test of both fixed support and the lower parallel at PRECISELY the moment in time it should have...where the two meet. Looking at it in amazement still. So beautiful. So fairly obviously it was a calculated buy at that point with stops below the line at 2748ish - but for traders, it was also a sell again as it hit 2800 from underside. So far, this is still a big, drawn-out continuation pattern...it's scaring out weak bulls with each down-wave - understandably too as the pattern looks pretty scary, even for experienced traders. Day traders play inside the parallels and are having some sport now whipping it from resistance at 2800 and near term support at 2770. But something has to give sooner or later - and whilst the lower parallel holds that favors the bulls and not the bears. So whilst it holds it's correct strategy for day traders to buy dips rather than selling rallies. But we need to cover both eventualities and try to keep an open mind - no matter what we might think, it's the chart that will decide the ultimate actions of thousands of traders all over the globe. Upside Reward Stll looks OK, though treacherous. Good to buy dips though - looks like a problem at 2832 awaits, especially if that happens around 1pm Eastern where two lines meet. Need Bitcoin to break above the parallel there to show it's still got got some life left in it at that point, enough momentum to break the upper parallel again above 2835 and hold...then we should get a re-test of the highs. Expect another stumble probably but stll believe there is a very good chance it will get beaten soon now. If you were around to buy at 2750-2760 you'll likely be selling at the highs and waiting to see if there's a red or green candle next. Whatever, continuation should be ending soon and a new set of Bitcoin owners have changed hands in the processs. Weaker bulls and bears have been replaced by stronger bulls. That's what happens during continuation. So far, so good. Once the high is beaten by 10 points or more it should go on to rally strongly again - look to increase longs with stops left well under the (by then old) highs Downside Risk If, wrong and the lower parallel gives way this is no longer continuation - it's a top pattern - big and scary. Get short immediately with stops above 2760. It should plunge in minutes to 2694-2684 range (buy back) and then bounce hard right back up to 2750-2760 range again and could even get to 2777 high before falling away again, hard to 2694-2684 range again. Sell rallies. If we see this price action develop at any point watch it closely on the second re-test of this range...don't expect it to hold for very long. Once it goes we have a top in place, a big one - sell all rallies back up to old support/new resistance lines shown on chart.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon