Merry XMas You Greedy Animal! HAHAHAH AHHAHAAHHome Alone reference. Honestly who knows where the market is heading...
My guess is 374 then 351.
Stimulus
Silver. Here. We. Go.Silver is just starting to breakout after a few months of consolidation (wave 2).
$900B Stimulus bill passed.
Wave 3 just starting. Right on time when we measure the first wave (March low to August high).
Wave 3 target $71-80. Could go higher. Next target is $102/103 per ounce.
Eventual (wave 5) target is $600 by April 2023 if this wave pattern plays out, especially if $100 is touched in 2021.
#FB - 1D - DEFINITION ZONE.Perfect uptrend since May. Multiple tests over the past few months. 7 to be exact.
Here we are now again. The last session left us with a Doji candlestick pattern just under MA50.
This Sunday, Republican and Democratic party leaders announced that a deal had been reached for a new stimulus check. There are enough votes for a majority approval this Monday on congress. We might spect a bullish day tomorrow for all mayor companies of SP500.
With this tailwind in favor, the price could break MA50 and cross Ichimoku's cloud at the same time. This will could create the propper impulse to break that pennant triangle and reach ATH as the first target.
In this case, we don't have a main support under trendline to act as a safety net. So, I would like to take two approaches:
Conservative Strategy:
- Open position: USD 276. 40
- Stop Loss: USD 269.54
- Price target: USD 304.
- Risk/Reward ratio: +4.6
Risky Strategy:
- Open position: USD 276. 40
- Stop Loss: USD 264.46
- Price target: USD 304.
- Risk/Reward ratio: +2.53
Risk management is always as important as all research and technical analysis we can make. Long-term profitable trading is about been wrong small and right big.
BTC/USDDont expect to see 20k price in near term...Again
Stimulus talks and support will drop BTC to buy it again AT 10k -9k price LONG term in summer get ready for 30k and above !
Text Book Head and Shoulders on Gold - appears negated, for nowJust looking at the charts, and some thoughts. Tomorrow is the last FED meeting of 2020, gold traders will probably be adjusting last minute over the next twenty or so hours. That Head and Shoulders can come right back into play if traders and institutions don't like what they read or hear. Should gold go back below 1800, it might be time to consider the gold trade dead for the next month and change. On the other hand, a sustained and well-defended move back above 1880 would put Gold back on the trajectory to a target of 2000 or above. Goldman Sachs updated their target for 2021 as 2300 which seems reasonable if buyers continue to buy. Chinese Lunar New Year approaches on Friday, February 12, 2021 (year of the Ox apparently), which might signal additional buy pressure as February approaches, and traders might start front running that trade soonish. Also the holiday factor is kicking in. If no big surprises from the FED, we have only the news for clues as to what 2021 brings for PMs and for the markets as a whole.
Eyeballing the RSI on my chart seems to show bullish divergence on the 30 minute chart, and apparent on the daily chart as well.
Staying neutral, mildly bullish with the retaking of 1850 today. Not adding, just watching.
A brief from Marketwatch on what to expect going into the meeting:
www.marketwatch.com
Tomorrow will probably be the last trading day of any significance unless Stimulus Talks Drama manifests once more. My thoughts, they have probably agreed on a strategy to keep things calm as we end out the year, even if there are major disagreements. We can all use the rest if that is the case.
XAU/USD - LONGS - 1925 before Christmas - SWING TRADE Buying Gold - Swing trade - small risk
Entry 1825
Stoploss 1805
Target 1925
Gold into 1925 before Christmas. Make sure you don’t mis this move 👍
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DEC 13 GOLD: Levels to Watch This WeekWhat is up trading family,
Comin back at you with my December 13th , 2020 analysis on XAU USD.
As always don't hesitate to drop your questions and comments below, your feedback is always appreciated!
Take profits and take it easy -- I'll see y'all next week.
- Ray
Next target Ethereum 890$ after back to 420 $We're seeing a similarity of the past bull run with a mass shaved bar bought on a monthly basis.
Let's look on a weekly run, i am seeing a nice target aroung 890 dollar per Ethereum.
3 reasons why this could happen.
1. Stimulus check,more money will flow into safe haven crypto currencies.
2. Flare airdrop from XRP is a fomo which will also let people deposit more money into cryptocurrencies.
3. Big investors are still watching this and The SEC need to be approved for them to le invest their money.
After 890 dollar I see a downtrend back to 420 because rich people will cash out their money.
The bullrun can start after this last one retest which could go 2000 dollar per Ethereum when Biden give more stimulus.
What are your thoughts ?
Like and share this beautiful giant that wil make you profitabel.
XAUUSD Bullish and bearish scenarios.looking to follow the expanding triangle pattern to wherever it points us to.
nasdaq extension target or retreat from highoverall, if the continuation holds, keep buys or look on lower time frames to add buys upon wicks where price has sold off. Creating a minor zone for buys.
If price retreats from the high. the least path of resistance is 12,400 upon a trendline pattern of creating higher low.
Trade what you see
KISS - Keep it simple stupid.
Many thanks,
Team Lupa
Hello $2075 The 'Stimulus Optimism Trade' is back
Around the world, major fiat currencies are looking at major devaluation.
In the US, a stimulus deal is in the works with a bipartisan group of lawmakers in discussions for $900+ billion deal to stimulate the economy. Last month's jobs report showed that economic recovery is slowing down. This may have tipped Democrats and Republicans to considering more stimulus.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the EU has been working on a stimulus deal. However, the plan may flop as Hungary & Poland threatening to veto the deal. Reports from Brussels say that policymakers are working to circumvent the two countries. Should the deal go through, the EURO will be under pressure.
Japan's Suga run into problems with convincing lawmakers in the country to approve a $900b deal. His approval ratings are low as second wave of coronavirus spreads in Japan. However, this will put more pressure on lawmakers to pass the stimulus bill.
What's up with Central Banks?
The FED, ECB & BOJ are expected to keep rates low this month. These banks also hold an unprecedented level of assets in form of treasuries and stocks. They won't stop buying until they are convinced that recovery has been achieved.
Why is all these important?
The DXY, EURO & JPY are some of the most used currencies in the world. The actions by governments around the world will devalue currencies leaving metal Commodities as the best safe havens. I expect XAUUSD to break the ATHs in 2021 through to 2023.
DEC 6 GOLD: A FURTHER PULLBACK TO FINISH 2020?What's up big ballers,
Comin back at you with my December 6th, 2020 analysis on XAU USD.
Let me know what y'all think, and as always don't hesitate to drop your questions and comments below.
Take profits and take it easy -- I'll see y'all next week.
- Ray
gold still bearish on no US stimulus and covid-19 vaccine news
I understand that many people are still bullish on gold which is perfectly fine. Many wouldn't agree with me that 1700 is the best buying zone. It is in confluence with a strong demand zone and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level - of a long 2020 bull run since the beginning of the year - is in the Zone. As for the traders who use moving averages to analyse price action, the 200-day moving average is just below the 1800 level. This is the only support that stopping the price of gold from getting to the 1700 level. I expect some form of consolidation above the 200 day moving average before heading lower if there will be no us stimulus under a standoff in the us senate if the Democrats fail to win the two Georgia runoff Senate seats.
Of course in the long run expect gold to head for $3000
Short-term 🎯
$1765
$1725
$1700
Undervalued Steel BreakoutTechnical Analysis
We have a breakout on strong intraday volume (200% above 10-day average).
RSI @67 - still not overbought.
OBV has been supportive.
Because we are in a longer down-trend, we will see multiple resistance; which will very helpful to set your limits.
Risk reward ratio is great, using $32.3 as stop-limit loss, and $39 as a sell-exit.
Be careful of a fake break-out, as this is only the 1st day.
Fundamental Analysis
One of the infrastructure plays with expected fiscal stimulus, could be steel.
As price is king, it tells a more accurate story of what market makers think of the upcoming events.
Gold bearish on no US stimulus $1860 has proved to be quite the strong 💪 Support level.... With the US Senate showing less interest in approving another stimulus package, further downside on Gold is possible. If the $1860 level is breached from a daily candle close below the price, the $1845, $1800 and $1765 are on the cards before the end of the year.
"X Gon' Give it to Ya"THE FUN:
Don't get it twisted
This commodity rise is mine, fellow investor
It's not a QQQ game
Forget what you've heard about lack of infrastructure spending
It's what you hearin'....the market knows
X gon' give it to ya (what?)
Forget waiting for you to get it on your own, X gon' deliver to ya (uh)
Knock knock, open up the door fibonacci levels, it's real
With the non-stop, pop-pop of stainless steel
Go hard, getting busy wit it
Bullish on X.
THE ACTUAL DD
PICK (ETF) is breaking out.
Direction watchCurrently we are resting under a moderate pivot resistance point (.7270). If we can close out above this pivot we may see continued consolidation between this point and .7300 until a break out.
I personally am only looking for an intraday trade however my sentiment is low but here is my analysis none the less.
If we can get a MACD signal line cross up through 0 line on 2 hr chart to trigger the buy super trend line I may look for an entry.
MACD and signal on 1 hr chart have crossed up through 0 line as well as the 3 hr chart. Ill only be looking at the 4 hr chart pending the MACD and signal on the 2 and 3 hr chart cross up through the 0 line. If we get this far we can begin too look for a further push.
Based on inflation talk, gold will be up as it is extremely valuable in time of demand. We know that when gold is up the dollar is down as well as its positive effect on AUD.
Furthermore, we cannot forget about the pandemic. l Australia has had less than 100 new cases in at least the last 2-3 weeks, and the US has the most confirmed cases with the highest percentage of new cases. Australia is opening up borders and lifting regulations. This will help the economy drastically as spending and return will be increased. The US is seeing the opposite scenario. A huge influx of new cases have forced schools to go back to complete virtual, local governments have in-forced curfew’s, and more local business who were able to bounce back from the stimulus are now back in a hole as business continues to fall. I live in Massachusetts and am experiencing all of this. Curfew, school closing, business closing back up, etc.
So given the sentiment one would think that AUD would surge over the dollar. We shall see.
AAL Still Choppy NASDAQ:AAL has been moving between 11.30 and 14.13 since earlier this Summer. Election time is truly the moment of truth. With a second stimulus bill in the works the main question that remains is when? Higher lows on the CMF shows that initiative for buyers is clearly there, comparatively to other dips it has formed a similar pattern. The earning beat is positive for AAL however furloughs have been hard on the workers and the company is clearly struggling. There is reason to believe that airlines will recover nicely with stimilus as we have seen recovery across the board with House elections more clear. Once stimulus hits there will likely be another big buyback likely followed by a dump. The area I would look to hold AAL until is around 19.38, I have enough reason to believe that area will be liquid for the stock and create a pullback. A strong push above this line (likely a result of an innovation of product or vaccine development) could lead to the line serving as a moderate support until we have more information. AAL is a strong buy above 12.05. These lines were drawn on historical price action, however it is important to note since the initial COVID-19 low and swing high the Fib levels have matched up nicely with these levels
ES1: Writing Off This Quarter The FED is projecting we need to write off this quarter as well with the surge of covid cases and at the same time, they are not contemplating an easing of Monetary Policy. Plus Biden is less likely to give stimulus to big businesses. Not only that Trump is most likely going to be dormant for the last 2 months of his presidency, so signs of stimulus seem bleak. This means liquidity is going to be dry for the next couple of months --> Bearish.
