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Stimulus

OVERVIEW OF GBPJPYGreetings Traders ! Our view of GBPJPY Price broke out of prior months channel formation Possible retest-of channel and if 137.700 holds Expect higher highs to139.300 resistance zone and above Otherwise, with economic fundamentals, brexit, stimulus, if chart respects bearish butterfly formation pattern, etc. We could see a bearish move to 136.500 zone as our target. A break from there can bring 131 levels... Feel free to comment and share or like :-). Happy Trading Stay safe! The Trading Regime.
Short
by EvaultFinancialGroup
TVIX in Mega Wedge?Ever since they took TVIX out of the picture the volatility favorite has been sinking harder than the Titanic. Not like it wasn't already sinking. Since reaching astronomical heights in March, TVIX gains have been getting smaller and smaller every time. Now it seems like this favorite is close to a viagra shot. Its hard to tell where this shot would go though and other factors need to be on TVIX's side in order to score a win. Expectations of a mid-month dip are high as the pattern has been proven consistent for a while, but could this one be late? Could we not get a correction until the week of the 17th or even the 24th? Its all fair game when the overlords hit the button and they will find any way to stop a large correction from occurring whether it's sending out more COVID vaccine news or throwing the stimulus bill in the mix. Talks have been unproductive as President Trump decided to push executive orders to extend benefits until congress can find its way out of gridlock. He already knows his reelection chances are waning and the desperate move might move the markets a bit more, but an actual agreement in congress would help it rocket further up its 5-month overbought state. Now TVIX technically is not in the books as it was decommissioned July 12, the day before another strong upshot came around. However TVIX 2.0 is taking its sweet ass time to get here (Gee...I wonder why?). In the meantime, TVIX can be purchased OTC under TVIXF for those that want to gamble with an uncertain gridlock in Washington. The markets have shown a lot of uncertainty with both the selling and buying end. Experienced traders are becoming more cautious not to buy too far in until major milestones are cleared. Until then, we have to wonder what TVIX has up its sleeve? It still has enough liquidity in it to play, but can become riskier the lower it goes. However, as we know, the market rewards risk-takers, but turns right back around and punishes them as well.
OTC:TVIXFShort
by Harley_Drake
A trading plan on MicrosoftOn its earnings report today, Microsoft reported better-than-expected earnings and guidance, but issued first-quarter revenue guidance slightly below the Wall Street consensus. The poor revenue guidance was partly, but not completely, offset by slightly better-than expected guidance for first-quarter operating costs. Overall, the magnitude of the earnings beat was much greater than the magnitude of the guidance cut, and my valuation metrics on Microsoft improved today: PEG dropped from 9+ to about 8.76. Microsoft is still certainly overvalued, however, along with the rest of the FAANG+ stocks. It's about 30-40% above the top end of its traditional range in terms of forward P/E and P/S. For a long-term buy-and-hold play, I would want to see Microsoft drop all the way to my second volume support before I'd want to buy. In the short term, Microsoft sentiment still looks pretty good. Options traders are net bullish in their positioning, and the Starmine Equity Summary Score for MSFT is 9.9. ESG has mattered a lot lately, and Microsoft earns one of the best ESG ratings I've seen. Thus I think we'll probably see a bounce from 203 either tomorrow or, more likely, Monday or Tuesday next week. A swing trade over the weekend might be a winner as the market holds out hope for vaccine and stimulus news. In macroeconomic terms, we saw the "recovery" story start to change today. Initial jobless claims turned upward for the first time in 16 weeks. Lots of other indicators I watch are also starting to look a little more negative. Thus, we may be headed into a period of renewed market weakness until the South and Midwest successfully flatten their coronavirus curves and resume reopening their economies. I highly doubt we'll drop all the way to that lower volume support at $135 unless the Moderna, Pfizer, and Astrazeneca vaccines all fail in clinical trials, but a dip to the upper support around $183.50 in August or September after stimulus news fades may not be out of the question, and from there it'd be worth swinging for a bounce. I will target a small entry at $183.50 and a 3x larger entry for $135, contingent on macroeconomic news.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
8
Markets Moving: Metals, Oil and Equities up with Tech downMarkets have been moving today on the back of positive vaccine news amongst concrete stimulus hopes. Silver rallied to a peak of $21.319 as investors and traders bet that a push to green energy will provide a silver lining to the metal. It is interesting to note that Silver has outperformed its counterpart Gold, with a 70% rise since its March lows. Analysts at Citibank expect Silver to hit $25 an ounce by the middle of 2021. Citi expects a clean energy push if Joe Biden, Democrats Presidential Nominee, gets elected. Biden has placed importance on clean energy in his $2 Trillion plan to push the US out of the Coronavirus's recession. Furthermore, the latest stimulus 750 Billion Euro stimulus plan from the EU has allocated a third of that recovery fund into fighting climate change. Silver is extensively used in the production of solar panels. However, Silver's rise does not mean its Gold counterpart is doing too bad either. Gold reached a new time high, with the spot price rallying to 1,483.45 an ounce before pulling back slightly. Over $40 Billion has flowed into gold-backed ETFs in the first year, breaking last year's record. Downwards pressure on the US dollar due to quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus has forced investors to look towards these metals for yield. Brent Crude Oil broke past $44 in the New York session as fiscal stimulus and backwardation finally broke past the resistance of $43.929. The black gold reached a peak of $44.998, before pulling back slightly. However, oil still has a little bit more to fill that gap to $45.228. This is in the midst of Chevron acquiring Noble energy in an all-stock deal for $13 Billion, a 7.5% premium from its current value. An industry filled with bankruptcies due to the Coronavirus, Chevron stands out with a strong balance sheet enabling it to take advantage of the crisis alongside keeping their dividend payout. The Euro rallied against the US Dollar, peaking at 1.15289 as the European Union clinches on an agreement on stimulus funding. The recovery fund worth 750 Billion euros hopes to pull the bloc out of the recession. With a myriad of bond sales and taxes to finance the stimulus, the fund expects to give out 390 Billion Euros of Grants to harder-hit countries such as Greece and Italy, and over 360 Billion Euros in loans. "We are 27 around the table, and we managed together to produce a budget," Macron said at a press conference alongside Merkel. "In which other political sphere in the world is that possible, is that done? None." Finally, in the Equity markets, we saw the SP500 and Dow Jones clinching a gain in the New York session, finishing higher than the NASDAQ. This is on the back on hopes that Congress can pass a second stimulus deal. However, agreement on the size of the stimulus cannot be agreed upon. Nancy Pelosi believes that $1t is "not close to enough" for the next stimulus. NASDAQ pulls back slightly of their all-time as investors await on tech earnings this week. However, they still lead in earnings relative to other equities.
TVC:SILVER
by BlackBull_Markets
BTC Pivotal pointBTC weekly chart is at a pivotal point. With heavy resistance in the 9.4k - 10.5k range it’s gonna be hard to break out for awhile. Volumes been really week, we could see a further retrace of this rally to around the 7.9k level or lower if volume continues to drop. Plenty of resistance below, I don’t see a drop below the 6.5k level. The fed has started to decrease daily bond purchases, and it has shown up in the slowed down the torrid pace of the markets. Any further decline will most likely lead to increased fed easing in the coming weeks and would reaccelerate the crypto bull market. I also believe volume to be down recently in the crypto markets due to the sudden resurgence and euphoria of the stock market in the last few months pulling traders away from crypto. But the shock to the economy we took was too great and more waves will follow soon. Housing and personal income continue to fall. With extended unemployment set to end on July 25th with no plans of an extension, be ready to take advantage of the coming crash with perhaps even greater stimulus in the near future. BTC and other crypto’s will benefit immensely from this. BTC to the moon, but be careful in the short term.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MambaTrader24
BTCUSD - Price Stability is here - What is next ?Since my last publication back in April , price has performed pretty much as expected. We did close a little above the 9.2K level at the end of May, but we could consider that within the error margin. This month we attempted to break higher, but 10K seems like a hard stop and by now we are back below the 9.2k key level. Bitcoin price is very stable as we have been trading in the 6.4 - 9.2K range for the last 10 months. The global economy is still suffering because of the COVID-19 crisis though and it does not seem that a recovery is anywhere near, despite all stimulus from governments. Bitcoin has been proven very correlated to the stock markets since the March crash and I don't expect that to change anytime soon. So what is up for the coming months ? The effect of the supply shock is not felt yet in the BTC markets despite a lot of OTC buying. As far as the Plustoken BTC stash, I understood they still should have around 22.000 BTC to get rid of and everytime price comes near the 10k level we see a good sell off which indicates that they do not want to sell at any price. So, if the stimulus continues and the market continues to react as they have done in the last couple of months, we can expect price to continue ranging within a narrow band, and everytime we come near 10K see a bunch of BTC dumped on the market until they run out of BTC to sell. With the OTC buying continuing we probably can expect the OTC exchanges to run out of BTC sooner or later as well, and at some point this year they might have to replenish. Q3 starting the day after tomorrow and keeping the above in mind, it looks like we'll have to wait till Q4 2020 or even Q1 2021 before we see the start of the rally and a breakout above 10K. But hey, this is bitcoin, anything can happen ! :) What are your thoughts ? Let me know what you think in the comments below. Oh, and if you think this analysis is useful, a like would be appreciated :) #staysate #tradesafe
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Nico.Muselle
8
Mortgage choice(MOC:ASX) LongMortage choice Entry - 0.735 Exit- 0.925 Government stimulus favouring the property market in Australia. Overall optimistic sentiment due to better crisis control. RSI in mid-range but relatively overbought Classic Dow theory: Trendline support Risks 1. Expecting sideways movement next week and a breakout either way--> Tight stop loss 2. Retesting Accumulation zone @0.675 and 50MA 3. Bad news over the weekend (Unlikely) 4. Retailer panic selling(unlikely)
M
by ashainp
Cash is King, Bull run incoming! M2 includes a broader set of financial assets held principally by households. M2 consists of M1 plus: (1) savings deposits (which include money market deposit accounts, or MMDAs); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000); and (3) balances in retail money market mutual funds (MMMFs). Seasonally adjusted M2 is computed by summing savings deposits, small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1 With this increase in cash flow & asset holding, I wouldn't expect a bear cycle anytime soon!
FRED:WM2NSLong
by jfs2152
Bid underneath from fresh stimulusGermany is set to approve a new fiscal stimulus package worth an estimated 80 billion euros. Makes for ES futures drifting up 0.45% and a solid bid underneath the markets as of now. Yesterday SPY closed up 0,40% and the grind higher continues. WTI crude is higher by about 2% as of now, which augers well for the small caps. U.S. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE SAYS ECONOMY COULD TAKE 10 YEARS TO CATCH UP AFTER CORONAVIRUS reports CNBC. But FED trillions and stimulus from other countries have a put a bid underneath the markets which appears to have distorted the Wall Street/Main Street symboises.
AMEX:SPYLong
by insyyte
Get Your Puts In, This Rally Is Weak.Short and concise as all of my charts are. I believe in the methodology of coming up with a fundamental approach to reading the charts, and simply test these beliefs with TA to either confirm or reject the fundamentals. This late-week rally leading into the weekend has A LOT of stipulations involved which is why it is very difficult too identify a clear and concise move at the moment. Democrats in the US are working hard to push an additional stimulus bill to pass which has in the recent pass, caused markets to rise. Republicans are still not set and have not voted on this new bill. This is an extremely important note to remember here. Stimulus bills are good for corporations, which in turn yields positive returns in the overall market as sentiment rises. THIS IS NOT A LONG TERM ECONOMIC SOLUTION but it's apparent those in leadership roles are prioritizing keeping our markets propped up and I can easily foresee this new stimulus bill passing once the Republican party can add a few stipulations to the bill. Putting the stimulus aside, short term charting is showing a very clear double top. In my previous chart, this was identified and successfully shorted down to the 50 fib retracement level. You can see my buy zone was set between $274-278 and I gotta say... It was perfect. That zone was a major support area and a subsequent bull rally followed. This was expected too! Not every bear rally is 2,000 days straight of red, we MUST have green days to leg down further. After-all, if there are no buyers, who is there to pick up your shares/options once you exit? We're seeing: Lower highs Lower lows RSI is also showing exhaustion Major resistance is being hit currently All things are leading and pointing to another leg down. Buying volume is very poor in this rally, thus showing a lack of positive sentiment in the current price point we're hanging around. Looking for what to watch? Volume will dictate which way we begin moving. I also implore you to take a close look at resistance and support zones. We did see a solid bounce from the 50 Fib level but I simply don't think we have enough upward momentum to re-test 61.8 again. If a leg down takes place next week or over the weekend, I can see us re-testing the 50 Fib level and that level failing, driving us down to new lows once again. Level of risk: Moderate to High Be very careful with staying up to date on the news and the impending stimulus bill. This will impact price action and will likely come after hours. If this bill stalls or doesn't get passed, that alone will be a catalyst for our next leg down. Just be very careful during these low volume days and make sure to watch the Greeks if you decide to play options. I suspect if the stimulus passes, Monday will be quite green but watch that volume!
AMEX:SPYShort
by larsontw16
3
NASDAQ ($NQ1!): Is the Fed, Stimulus, and Tech Enough?✨ New charts every day ✨ Like, Comment & Follow to help the community grow 🎉🎉 --- Today we are looking at NASDAQ Mini Futures (NQ1!) for all of you looking to play QQQ or its derivatives. The Federal Reserve is buying ETFs, stimulus is pumping, and tech is flying with everyone staying at home. Unsurprisingly we have been seeing the Qs inch back up near all time highs recently. It is hard to bet against the NASDAQ, and those who have been have been getting rekt. Still, the tide changes quick and the past few days have seen the market sell off with that selling exaggerated by Powell calling for more stimulus and saying the Corona Crisis is without precedent. Still though, it is likely a more profitable move to buy into the dip than the FUD. Our strategy seems to think so, let's see how this plays out. Resources: www.reuters.com + www.cnbc.com + www.marketwatch.com --- 1. Fractal Trend is showing an uptrend (Aqua bar color) on the 4 hour chart. This is no surprise given the recent strength in tech. 2. With this strategy, we are looking for long setups in an uptrend and as such want to enter long on retests of bullish order blocks plotted by Orderblock Mapping (Blue) and/or bullish S/R levels plotted by Directional Bias (Blue). 3. As you can see, we just got a long entry from the strategy at S1. The hope here is that we will get continuation of the bull trend with a retest of the R2 range containing the bearish orderblock and S/R flip right above the ~9430 gap. 4. If the S1 setup gets stopped out, then there is another swing setup at the S2 - S3 range assuming Fractal Trend is still giving us the green light. If the trend is indicated as down at that point we will not be looking to trade. We don't trade against the trend regardless of how juicy that setup may look. There will always be other trades.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by AlphaBotSystem
14
SPX - Update - 61.8% Fib in Sight - Bull or Bear?The SPX has broken above the 50% fib level and looks set to visit the 61.8% retracement. Prior Analysis We have already moved beyond my prior analysis targeting the typical 50% retracement, whilst this is not uncommon it is certainly a testament to the power of stimulus and a positive narrative, or perhaps naivety, as the Federal Reserve has stepped up their "stimulus" to unprecedented levels, north of 1.5 trillion within the past 4 weeks. With Lorrie Logan, head of the federal reserve's open markets, signaling that further irreversible intervention is inevitable: "supporting smooth market functioning does not mean restoring every aspect of market functioning to its level before the coronavirus crisis. Some aspects of liquidity—especially aspects related to transactions costs and market depth—are importantly affected by fundamental factors such as how the current extraordinary uncertainty about the economic outlook influences trading behavior. These aspects of market functioning may not return all the way to pre-crisis levels for some time, even as our purchases slow." With the knowledge that the Federal Reserve is and will continue to be the buyer of last resort, barring direct stock purchases (for now, but that will change shortly). How do we play these markets? The US economy is not going to open until May 1st, at the absolute earliest, according to "leaked" white house documents: "The plan lays out three-phases: Preparing the nation to reopen with a national communication campaign and community readiness assessment until May 1. Then, the effort, through May 15, would involve ramping up manufacturing of testing kits and personal protective equipment and increasing emergency funding. Then staged reopenings would begin, depending on local conditions. The plan does not give specific dates for reopenings but specified "not before May 1." Furthermore the same document states that government intervention is likely to continue until a vaccine is available: "The plan also carries this warning: “Models indicate 30-day shelter in place followed by 180 day lifting of all mitigation results in large rebound curve - some level of mitigation will be needed until vaccines or broad community immunity is achieved for recovering communities.” This fact alone, would suggest that the downside is not over just yet as the longer the lock-down measures remain in place the more the US economy will continue to bleed. But we must not get too bearish too soon. Gap Fills? The correct play at the moment, in my opinion, is to expect more upside albeit only for the short-term, as the rush of stimulus and the apparent slowing of global infections continues to placate markets and with the breadth of CB purchases, the path of least resistance is up. That being said. I will be looking to go short, should the market fail at the 200 ma or at the 61.8% fib level. I will be open to long positions, similar to my WES trade, which produced gains of over 170% in little over a few days, but i am more comfortable, waiting in cash for the time being, as even the slightest bit of bad news can send the markets tumbling lower. -TradingEdge Sources: Federal Reserve Operations: www.zerohedge.com White House Document: www.zerohedge.com BlackRock Following Fed Purchases: www.zerohedge.com
SP:SPX
by Profit_Link
2
Short Dollar amongst increasing LIQUIDITY through STIMULUSThe stimulus package is no joke. It is the largest economic stimulus in American history with $2 trillion being pumped into the economy. All should know that when more dollars are printed they lose their purchasing power and prices go up (inflation). I went short the dollar with a target equal in length to wave A at around $96.50 and a stop loss at $101. EURUSD also looks primed for a move up. Decent risk to reward trade here. Thanks for checking out my idea, be sure to LIKE COMMENT and FOLLOW!
TVC:DXYShort
by Chadison-Brosevelt
AMT a possible infrastructure playI suspect that the Phase 4 stimulus bill, which Trump wants to be $2 trillion dollars, will include some funds for the 5g rollout. That might benefit companies like Nokia and Ericsson, though I'd expect the US government to favor US companies in any contracts for infrastructure build. Thus, I'm looking today at American Tower. On the hourly chart, AMT looks like it has some support from the 200-hour EMA. I'm buying here and setting my stop loss below the moving average.
NYSE:AMTLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
2