Steel Dynamics ($STLD) Stock Hits a Record HighSteel Dynamics ( NASDAQ:STLD ) reports current quarter guidance that was above estimates as it sees profitability potentially stronger than the previous quarter. The steelmaker said the gains were driven by its flat-rolled steel operations.
Steel Dynamics added that because of its confidence in the business, the company repurchased 1.4% of its stock so far in the quarter. Steel Dynamics ( NASDAQ:STLD ) shares soared to a record high after the steel maker reported much better-than-expected guidance on booming demand.
The company predicts current quarter earnings per share (EPS) of $3.51 to $3.55, while analysts were looking for $3.32.
Steel Dynamics said it anticipates profitability from its steel operations to be "meaningfully stronger" than fourth-quarter results.
While the company will give more details in its first quarter financial report on April 23, it pointed to increased shipments and earnings driven by the company's flat-rolled steel operations as fueling growth. Steel Dynamics ( NASDAQ:STLD ) also said earnings from its metals recycling business will be higher, and that its automotive, non-residential construction, energy, and industrial sectors “continue to lead demand,”
Based on its “continued confidence in its earnings outlook and cash flow generation,” it had repurchased $279 million, or 1.4%, of its stock in the first quarter through March 11, the company said.
STLD
$STLD - bullish trade setup$STLD 6% upmove from 122.50 to 130
Technicals :
1. Monthly - bullish
2. Weekly - bullish
3. Daily - RSI Positive Reverse Divergence
Trade setup :
1. Entry : 122.50
2. Stop Loss : 119.75
3. Risk : 2.75 points
4. Target : 130
5. Profit points : 7.5 points
6. R/R : 2.75 : 7.5 = 1:3
SLX Steel ETF Monthly view. Be aware of strong seasonalitySteel has been on a rip. New 52 week highs in:
STLD steel 999 sctr rating
SLX steel 996 sctr rating
ZEUS steel 974 sctr rating
(see stockcharts.com for definition of sctr rating).
Barchart has a strong buy on the ETF, with acknowledgement that reopening China is good for business. But before I would jump on the FOMO bandwagon, I would take note of the very strong seasonal downtrend that has occurred around every May. Ride it a little longer maybe but be ready to hop off the train.
Steel Dynamics is overbought according to thisBased on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on May 27, 2022 with a closing price of 85.6795.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 84.85 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 2.103% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 4.89% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 8.016% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.75% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 10 trading bars; half occur within 22 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 36 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
Will Red Hot STLD Cool Off?Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on March 25, 2022 with a closing price of 89.32.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 88.46 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 2.053% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 4.824% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 7.606% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.75% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 9 trading bars; half occur within 22 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 36 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
Ichimoku entry STLDMaking a pretty drastic change in the exit strategy; well, same strategy just tightening up the stdDev multipliers a LOT. new stop loss is going to be just 10% what it was, trailstop activation trigger is cut in half, and trail stop is going from 0.25 to 0.1. These are all configurable in the script.
been doing some backtesting and it seems like this tactic of getting out much faster in all cases will yield to bigger overall gains even though i'll probably miss even more big runners.
5 MILLION SHARES, BUYOUT / GOING PRIVATE. VALUE PLAY, STRONG BUYWe have been in and out of Cliffs for a while.
Recently, the stock again popped up on our scanner.
Cliffs is the oldest iron ore company founded in 1847
We did hear a rumor of a possible buyout / merger and even the potential for the company to go Private. If either of these rumors pan out, we think the stock is worth at minimum, $20 all day long!
Currently the stock is trading at an extreme discount to the industry. In fact, J.P. Morgan just raised the price target to $17.00 due to the high demand for Cliffs Iron Ore.
The stock should be trading around $15.00 right now and upwards of $18 to $20 after the next earnings report.
At current levels, Cliffs is a GIFT!
We are currently only holding CLIFFS and 4 other positions. Everything else we've posted and sold has produced us great returns.
Our track record within TradingView speaks loud and clear!
Position: 5 Million Shares
Average Cost: $9.75
LONG
STLD: Massive uptrend in steel comingSTLD's chart is massively bullish, the same as copper, iron ore futures, AUDUSD, and other correlated instruments. The setup here confirmed some time ago, but it's relevant as an analysis piece now. Most people are bearish on equities but I believe we're seeing the bottom here, or very close. Rising commodity prices seem likely going forward as well, which will benefit the AUDUSD bulls like me.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.