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Stochastic-overbought

USDCAD | Short H4 | Market Exe | Loonie to Ride the GreenbackTechnical Confluences for Trade: - Stochastics are in Overbought Conditions on H1 & H4 time-frame - Price action is at a Supply Zone area - Price action may reverse towards the ascending support Trendline - Targeting the 38.2% Fibo retracement Suggested Trade: Entry @ Area of Interest 1.3760 - 1.3800 SL @ 1.3854 TP 1 @ 1.3697 (Close Half-Position & move SL to Entry level once TP1 is achieved) TP 2 @ 1.3611 Risk-to-Reward @ Approx. 2.12 (Depending on Entry Level) ________________________________ Boosts 🚀, Follows ✌️, Shares 🙌 & Comments ✍️ are much appreciated! If you have any ideas or charts, do share them in the 'Comments' section below and we can discuss our perspectives to improve or strengthen our strategies. If you want something analyzed, do drop me a DM. :D ________________________________ Disclaimer: The above suggestion is an personal opinion in general and does not constitute as investment advice. Any decisions taken based on the above suggestion is purely your own risks. Any websites / brokers / applications suggested here are also provided as informational purpose only. ________________________________
Short
by weekendanalyst
6
BNBUST | Short H4 | Market Exec |Technical Confluences for Trade: - Stochastics are in Overbought Conditions on H4 time-frame - Price action is close to a Resistance Trendline & a Consolidation are - Price action may reverse back towards the previous Demand Zone Suggested Trade: Entry @ Area of Interest 560 - 570 SL @ 580.66 TP 1 @ 552 (Close Half-Position & move SL to Entry level once TP1 is achieved) TP 2 @ 535.15 Risk-to-Reward @ Approx. 2.18 (Depending on Entry Level) ________________________________ Boosts 🚀, Follows ✌️, Shares 🙌 & Comments ✍️ are much appreciated! If you have any ideas or charts, do share them in the 'Comments' section below and we can discuss our perspectives to improve or strengthen our strategies. If you want something analyzed, do drop me a DM. :D ________________________________ Disclaimer: The above suggestion is an personal opinion in general and does not constitute as investment advice. Any decisions taken based on the above suggestion is purely your own risks. Any websites / brokers / applications suggested here are also provided as informational purpose only. ________________________________
Short
by weekendanalyst
2
EURNZD | Short H1 | Market Exe |Technical Confluences for Trade: - Stochastics are in Overbought Conditions on H4 time-frame - Price action reversed away from Supply area - Price action may reverse back towards Resistance Trendline and 61.8% Fibo Retracement Suggested Trade: Entry @ Area of Interest 1.8100 - 1.8110 SL @ 1.8156 TP 1 @ 1.8057 (Close Half-Position & move SL to Entry level once TP1 is achieved) TP 2 @ 1.8009 Risk-to-Reward @ Approx. 2.03 (Depending on Entry Level) ________________________________ Boosts 🚀, Follows ✌️, Shares 🙌 & Comments ✍️ are much appreciated! If you have any ideas or charts, do share them in the 'Comments' section below and we can discuss our perspectives to improve or strengthen our strategies. If you want something analyzed, do drop me a DM. :D ________________________________ Disclaimer: The above suggestion is an personal opinion in general and does not constitute as investment advice. Any decisions taken based on the above suggestion is purely your own risks. Any websites / brokers / applications suggested here are also provided as informational purpose only. ________________________________
Short
by weekendanalyst
GBPCAD | Short H4 | Market Exe | Technical Confluences for Trade: - Stochastics are in Overbought Conditions on H4 time-frame - Price action is at a Supply Zone area - Price action may reverse back below Resistance Trendline Suggested Trade: Entry @ Area of Interest 1.7140 - 1.7160 SL @ 1.7258 TP 1 @ 1.7012 (Close Half-Position & move SL to Entry level once TP1 is achieved) TP 2 @ 1.6809 Risk-to-Reward @ Approx. 3.41 (Depending on Entry Level) ________________________________ Boosts 🚀, Follows ✌️, Shares 🙌 & Comments ✍️ are much appreciated ! If you have any ideas or charts, do share them in the 'Comments' section below and we can discuss our perspectives to improve or strengthen our strategies. If you want something analyzed, do drop me a DM. :D ________________________________ Disclaimer: The above suggestion is an personal opinion in general and does not constitute as investment advice. Any decisions taken based on the above suggestion is purely your own risks. Any websites / brokers / applications suggested here are also provided as informational purpose only. ________________________________
Short
by weekendanalyst
USDJPY | MT Short H4 | Riding on BOJ InterventionPair: FX:USDJPY Timeframe: H4 - Medium Term (MT) Direction: Short Technical Confluences for Trade: - Stochastics are in Overbought Conditions on D1, H4 and H1 time-frames - Price action may face some resistance from a previous support line - Price is close to 61.8% Fib Extension Level - Aiming for the 32.8% Fibo Retracement with 23.6% as the TP 1 level Fundamental Confluences for Trade: - Dividend repatriation season for Japan where MNCs bring back USD dividends and converts them to JPY - These levels may see BOJ intervening to stop the Yen weakness - Yield differential between USA and Japan cannot be denied and dovish BOJ doesn't help much; hence the weak JPY unless we see a firmer BOJ - Further war escalation from the Israel-Iran tension may bring on risk-off moves and see the JPY strengthen Suggested Trade: Entry @ Area of Interest 154.00 - 155.15 SL @ 156.56 TP 1 @ 151.30 (Close Half-Position & move SL to Entry level once TP1 is achieved) TP 2 @ 149.27 Risk-to-Reward @ Approx. 3.03 (Depending on Entry Level) May the pips move in our favor! Good luck! :D *This trade suggestion is provided on an advisory basis. Any trade decisions made based on this suggestion is a personal decision and am not responsible for any losses derived from it.
Short
by weekendanalyst
2
CHFJPY | MT Short H4 | The Battle of 2 Safe HavensPair: FX:CHFJPY Timeframe: H4 - Medium Term (MT) Direction: Short Technical Confluences for Trade: - Stochastics are in Overbought Conditions on D1, H4 and H1 time-frames - Price action may face some resistance from a previous support line - Price has retraced to 61.8% Fib Retracement Level - Aiming for the lower Support trendline from the mid of 2023 Fundamental Confluences for Trade: - SNB has been repeatedly concerned about a strong CHF while BOJ is concerned about a weak JPY - These levels may see BOJ intervening to stop the Yen weakness and vice versa for SNB - SNB is the first developed nation to start their cutting rate cycles and BOJ has just started hiking Suggested Trade: Entry @ Area of Interest 169.50 - 170.20 SL @ 170.84 TP 1 @ 168.68 (Close Half-Position & move SL to Entry level once TP1 is achieved) TP 2 @ 167.18 Risk-to-Reward @ Approx. 2.31 (Depending on Entry Level) May the pips move in our favor! Good luck! :D *This trade suggestion is provided on an advisory basis. Any trade decisions made based on this suggestion is a personal decision and am not responsible for any losses derived from it.
Short
by weekendanalyst
QNTUSDT - Short - Broadening WedgeQNT is currently forming an ascending broadening wedge pattern on daily timeframe. An ascending broadening wedge is a bearish reversal chart pattern. Where the upper line is the resistance line and the lower line is the support line. As we can see in the chart that it´s moves increase with higher magnitudes. This pattern should be traded when the price breaks out of the support line. Looking at the pattern combined with the three indicators we can conclude it´s currently in an overbought condition. So it´s likely for the price to retrace. The three indicators are Bollinger Bands, RSI 14 and Stochastic. In our opinion it´s more likely for the price to retrace and pump once more before it breaks out of the support line. So for now Target 1 in prioritized. Before targeting the other two targets we have to wait what happens after Target 1! All the details are shown on the chart. Goodluck!
Short
by vf_investment
9
Harmonic Cypher Perfects at Gapfill 4018The gap must fill. Short not until it does imo. Measured Move projected with price bands, +302 pips for a 1:1 move. Gap may fill Friday. Expect weakness before FOMC, then a stupid bullup as follows: 7/27 1400 rate decision; initial ludicrous pop followed within minutes by a selloff. Price declines until ~1425 in falling wedge. At ~1428 EST J Powell will step up to the mic and make soothing comments. Irrational mad bullishness follows, rising price in giant arc up to close. Thursday after the hike could turn into a bloodbath. Last time bad news was so good they bought it next day. This time, who knows? Don't get caught short in these nutty rallies. The Shark Cypher is a giant W with right leg taller than left. Other variants include crab, nenstar, etc; nomenclature based on leg heights. It is a BEARISH construct which usually leads to lower prices after break from right leg. There is the short entry. Included RSI, Stoch and Stoch/RSI indicators for comparision to each other, these are interesting. All approaching overbought. Target: The gap to fill below at 3796. Price very unlikely to fall below lower BollBand imo. This is STILL A BEAR MARKET; all rallies are setup for lower prices ahead, until proved otherwise. IMO the LOTY is still not in; could be mistaken, let us see what madness transpires in October... GLTA!
TVC:SPXShort
by DaddySawbucks
34
ADA/USD - updateWe have seen a very nice rise with ADAUSD since the 11th Jan with increasing Volume on this Binance 1d chart. The only issue at the moment is that BTC is dragging everything down with it so ADA is having trouble maintaining its rise at the moment. ADA is above its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA and note that we have expansion of the Upper and Lower Bands and this expansion is for positive momentum. Not that ADA is above its Bollinger Bands Upper band so a retracement back under the Upper Band shouldn’t come as a surprise. Note that ADA is still above its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) for this 1d timeframe. ADA is still in the Bearish Zone of the Ichimoku Cloud but note that ADA has risen and is now getting close to the Leading Span A (Senkou Span A) resistance Level. Note that ADA is still above its Longterm Pitchfork Median Line on this 1d timeframe. ADA is still above its Volume Profile Fixed Range Point of Control (VPFR POC) for the fixed range of 8x daily candles that i have selected. ADA is still above its Volume Profile Visible Range Point of Control (VPVR POC) for this charts Visible Range. Note that Volume has increased and yesterday’s Volume Bar closed above its Volume 20 Period Moving Average and today’s Volume Bar will also close above it. If we look at the Moving Average Convergence Diveragnce (MACD), we can see that the MACD Line (Blue Line) has crossed back over the Signal Line (Orange Line) generating a Buy Signal on the 13th-14th Jan and note that the MACD Line (Blue Line) is very close to crossing back over the 0.0 Base Line into the Positive Zone of the MACD indicator. Note that the MACD Line (Blue Line) has not been in the Positive Zone above the 0.0 Base Line since the 17th Sept 2021 so this will be an important move. If we look at the Average Directional Index (ADX DI) we can see that the +DI (Green Line) is at 25.30 and has crossed back over the -DI (Red Line) which is at 14.28. this means that Positive Momentum is stronger then Negative Momentum on this 1d timeframe. Note that the Trend Strength is slightly weak with the ADX (Orange Line) at 18.94 under it s 9 Period EMA (White Line) which is at 19.85 and under the 20 Threshold. Note that the ADX (Orange Line) is pointing upwards so we may see another massive increased positive rise if the ADX (Orange Line) crosses back above the 9 Period EMA (White Line) and the 20 Threshold level. If we look at the Stochastic Indicator (STOCH) we can see that the %K (Blue Line) is in the Overbought Zone of this indicator. The %K (Blue Line) is pointing downwards but it is still above its %D (Orange Line). Be on the lookout for if the %K (Blue Line) stays above the %D (Orange Line) or crosses back below it. Note that because the %K (Blue Line) is in the Overbought Zone that doesn't see that it will drop out of it because the %K (Blue Line) can range sideways in the Overbought Zone for a prolonged period of time. Here is a wider look at this 1d chart. With such a rise it is not uncommon for the price to drop back under its Upper Bollinger Band before continuing upwards. If Upwards Momentum continues being strong then we may see ADA walk up along its Upper Band for a few days. As usual with BTC dropping, BTC is dragging everything down with it and slowing ADA’s rise, so we have to keep an eye on what BTC is doing because if BTC drops under $40K, then that will continue to drag ADA and all other alts down with it. I hope this is helpful with your trading and hodl-ing.
BINANCE:ADAUSD
by entertheroach
1
USDCHF: Continue Selling on RalliesUSDCHF Timeframe: H4 Direction: Short Confluences for Trade: - Weakening momentum in rally - Price rejected 50 EMA - Price action at 38% Fibo Retracement - Price action at Resistance Trendline - Price action at Horizontal Resistance Trendline - Stochastic Overbought momentum (H4) Suggested Trade: Entry @ Area of Interest 0.9950 - 1.0000 SL: 1.0049 TP: 0.9842 RR: Approx. 2.00 (Depending on Entry Level) May the pips move in our favor! Good luck! :D *This trade suggestion is provided on an advisory basis. Any trade decisions made based on this suggestion is a personal decision and we are not responsible for any losses derived from it.
Short
by weekendanalyst
EURAUD: Strong Supports; Ready for Bounce?EURAUD Timeframe: 1D Direction: Long Confluences for Trade: - Stochastic Overbought momentum - Too wide of a divergence for 8 EMA and 50 EMA - Price close to Strong Horizontal Support (since Feb 18) - Price close to a Support Trendline (previously resistance; since March 18) Suggested Trade: Entry @ Area of Interest 1.5610 - 1.5670 SL: 1.5542 TP: 1..5884 RR: Approx. 2.89 (Depending on Entry Level) May the pips move in our favor! Good luck! :D *This trade suggestion is provided on an advisory basis. Any trade decisions made based on this suggestion is a personal decision and we are not responsible for any losses derived from it.
Long
by weekendanalyst
Illinois Tool Works (ITW) Will Drop At Least 3 Percent SoonIllinois Tool Works Inc has been trending up for more than two years. As the stock moves up, it naturally cycles up and down maintaining its upward bias. Some technical indicators are displaying major signals that the stock will soon drop. The relative strength index (RSI) is at a rarely observed extreme level; a combination of indicators also point out trouble on the horizon. The stock will most likely continue its upward trend over the long-term; but this next natural cycle down could impact investors. How bad will history repeat itself? The RSI is at 84.5283 and tends to determine trends, momentum, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The RSI is currently overbought and is at one of its highest levels ever. It can only take the stock down from here. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.1854 and the negative is 0.6629. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. The opposite is true when the negative is higher. I have created an algorithm (called the SAG gauge) which signals when stocks are truly overbought and oversold. The algorithm indicates when a particular stock meets multiple criteria culminating in an oversold or overbought signal. The overbought signal recently occurred and could occur again over the next few days. Seeing the other signs of a downturn, proactively positioning short for the stock's decline prior to seeing this verifying signal could increase profits. Upon back-testing this indicator, it has signaled overbought status 104 times dating back to 1980. The stock drops at least 1.75% over the following 35 trading days in eighty percent of these occurrences. The stock drops at least 3% seventy percent of the time and forty percent of the time loses 5.75%. Even though a drop does not always occur, these numbers combined with the following statistics have instilled confidence that a greater than 2% drop is looming. The RSI has been at or above its current level ONLY seven times in the history of this stock. The stock always drops over the next 25 days with a minimum drop of 0.93%, median decline of 2.52%, and average drop of 4.58%. Only one other time since 2000 was the RSI and positive VI at or above today's level at the same time the stochastic oscillator was overbought with the earnings call three days away. The stock dropped 5.21% over the following 14 trading days on that occasion. The technical indicators for this stock have been in the same or more extreme positions simultaneously only three times in the history of the stock. These all occurred more than 30 years ago. The minimum drop was 9.33% over 16 trading days while the median was 12.82% over 33 trading days. Although not identical to the current technical readings, ten similar instances saw the RSI close to today's 84 reading while the positive VI was at or above its current position, the negative VI was at or below its current position and the stochastic oscillator was overbought. On these occasions the stock dropped at least 4.49% and saw a median loss of 9.72%. Another odd thing has just occurred regarding the positive VI value. It was recently above its current 1.18 level before it dropped below 1 and moved back above 1.18. Although a move like this is normal, the positive level never crossed below the negative VI level. This similar movement has only occurred on five occasions. The minimum loss for the stock was 7.34% and the median drop was 8.50%. It is clear the stock will drop at least 3% over the next 40 days after taking all of this historical information in to consideration. I would not be surprised if the stock lost greater than 5% over this time period. The RSI for the stock is at one of its highest recorded levels ever which indicates there is only one direction for the stock to move. More at LimitlessLifeSkills.com
NYSE:ITWShort
by StockSignaler
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Tends To Drop Post-EarningsMicrosoft Corporation has been trending upward as are most stocks and sectors since the U.S. elections last year. Although "good" numbers and much hype surround markets, Microsoft has not had great results after their earnings calls for the last four years. The stock is also at the top of its clearly defined trend channel which has always resulted in a decline over the next few weeks. We have laid out a study of historical movements for the stock in this article. Will history repeat itself again causing a 5% plus drop? When we look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 78.4752. RSI tends to determine trends, momentum, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The RSI is currently overbought. This milestone has occurred 112 times and its significance is discussed below. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.3159 and the negative is 0.6303. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the stock is moving down. The positive and negative are at somewhat extreme levels away from their central point of 1. Their current retreat back to 1 typically flags the end of the upward movement while signaling a drop for the stock. The stochastic oscillator K value is 94.8017 and D value is 81.1292. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is certainly in overbought territory. The D value is still well below the K value and it could be a few more days before the D is greater than the K. When this crossover occurs, the stock could be ready to drop. SPECIFIC ANALYSIS Only one other time since 2000 was the RSI and positive VI at or above today's level at the same time the stochastic oscillator was overbought with the earnings call three days away. The stock dropped 5.21% over the following 14 trading days on that occasion. The stock has dropped 12 of the last 17 times from its close price three days prior to the earnings call. Of these 12 occasions, the minimum drop is 0.67%, median drop is 4.40%, and maximum decline is 14.97%. On four occasions since the start of the Dot Com Bubble Burst has the RSI and positive VI been at the same level while the stochastic oscillator was overbought. The minimum days to hit a bottom was 14 and the minimum stock loss was 4.62%. The median stock decline was 5.81% and maximum was 16.54%. On 12 occasions the RSI and positive VI have been near their same levels are higher while the stochastics oscillator was overbought. The stock has dropped a minimum of 3.03% and median of 5.79% throughout these instances. The RSI has closed at or above its current level 112 times since 1986. Over the next 30 trading days from this point, the stock does not always drop, the median decline is 6.86% and average loss is 8.68%. Finally, the stock has been in a discernable trend channel since April 2016. The stock hit the top of this channel on Friday which it has done five other times since it began. The quickest drop from the top has occurred in three days and the slowest bottom occurred in 20 days. The minimum drop from the top of the channel is 3.23%, median is 4.79%, and max is 5.79%. Between all of the aforementioned historics, we are confident the stock could drop at least 3.5% over the following 35 trading days. The significant drop should take shape after earnings are announced around October 26. Remember, even positive earnings have resulted in declines.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by StockSignaler
Did ConocoPhillips (COP) Just Exhaust Itself?ConocoPhillips has climbed quickly in the previous month. The stock should not remain at such a high level according to technical indicators and historics, Will it head south with strong action around the 46 level? When we look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 65.6636. RSI tends to determine trends, momentum, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI has come down from overbought levels. The historical significance of this move and it current level are detailed below. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.2097 and the negative is 0.6935. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the stock is moving down. The positive and negative have begun to head back toward the 1 level after flirting with extremes consistent with positive stock movement. A retreat back to one typically flags the end of the upward movement while signaling a drop for the stock. The stochastic oscillator K value is 90.4177 and D value is 93.3957. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is certainly in overbought territory The D value has just overtaken the K value at the time of writing; meaning the stock will continue to decline and could drop quicker than it rose. SPECIFIC ANALYSIS I have created an algorithm which signals when stocks are truly overbought and oversold. The algorithm indicates when a particular stock meets multiple criteria culminating in an oversold or overbought signal. The overbought signal could occur over the next few days. Seeing the other signs of a downturn, proactively positioning short for the stock's decline prior to seeing this verifying signal could increase profits. Upon back-testing this indicator, it has signaled overbought status 73 times dating back to 1981. The stock drops at least 2% over the following 35 trading days in eighty percent of these occurrences. The stock drops at least 3% seventy percent of the time and forty percent of the time loses 6.25%. Even though a drop does not always occur, these number combined with the following statistics have instilled confidence that a greater than 5% drop is looming. On 13 occasions since 1985, the RSI has exited overbought territory and been at its current level while the stochastic was simultaneously overbought and the positive VI was retreating from a level above it current one. This might not be a significant amount of data points, it is plenty for when studying historical movement. Based on this data, the stock sees a median drop of 12.09% over the next 20-35 trading days. Between all of the aforementioned historics, we are confident the stock could drop at least 5-7% over the following 38 trading days. A SAG gauge signal would further bolster this idea.
NYSE:COPShort
by StockSignaler
How much will overbought Consumer Non-Cyclical Sector Fall? XLPThe Consumer Non-Cyclical Sector SPDR Fund has been in a bull trend since the end of the financial crisis. An internal and stronger bull trend has taken shape since shortly after the US elections in November 2016. However, this fund is currently near its long-term resistance point which will most likely lead to one of two future moves. The fund could break above this long-term resistance and continue strong gains, or it could reverse course and at the very least return to its support established since the election. Below I have laid out the reasons and levels to which the fund may dip while it continues its overall bull trend. When we take a look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 80.8116. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is overbought. The fund could rise over the next few days or begin its descent now. I will provide further analysis below when this indicator aligns at maximums with two of the other technical indicators. The true strength index (TSI) is currently 21.5180. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The TSI is moving up. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.3859 and the negative is at 0.5248. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. These indicators are at extreme levels indicating a pending reversal of the fund is imminent. I will provide further analysis below when this indicator aligns at maximums with two of the other technical indicators. The stochastic oscillator K value is 97.0441 and D value is 94.0369. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is currently well overbought, but the D value has not overtaken the K value, meaning the fund could produce gains for one or two more days at the most before ultimately turning downward. I will provide further analysis below when this indicator aligns at maximums with two of the other technical indicators. On three occasions since September 2013, the RSI, positive VI, and stochastic have been at similarly extreme levels at the same time. All three occasions led to drops for the fund. In September 2013 the fund dropped 5.25% in 13 trading days. In October 2013 the fund lost 2.91% over the next 35 trading days. Eventually the fund dropped more than 7% from the October RSI peak (the bottom occurred at the end of January 2014). The smallest decline was seen in February of this year when the fund declined 1.63% over 22 trading days. A natural decline will occur in our current instance, the main question is how much? Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the fund could drop at least 1.63% over the next 25 trading days if not
AMEX:XLP
by StockSignaler
How much will overbought Consumer Cyclicals Sector Fall? XLYThe Consumer Cyclical Sector SPDR Fund has been in a bull trend since the end of the financial crisis. An internal and stronger bull trend has taken shape since the US elections in November 2016. However, this fund is currently at its long-term resistance point which will most likely lead to one of two future moves. The fund could break above this long-term resistance and continue strong gains, or it could reverse course and at the very least return to its support established since the election. Below I have laid out the reasons and levels to which the fund may dip will it continue its overall bull trend. When we take a look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 70.8987. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is below overbought levels. The fund could rise over the next few days or begin its descent now. The three previous overbought levels are annotated with the vertical blue line on the chart above. The drop from this overbought level occurred on all occasions, but the near-term drop in February was minimal. The true strength index (TSI) is currently 17.4983. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The TSI has been stuck in a positive but limited channel since December 2016. This indicator has begun to move up again. Although this is a delayed indicator, it may point to upward movement for the fund. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.1761 and the negative is at 0.7501. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. These indicators have been slow moving but currently show the fund moving up. The stochastic oscillator K value is 97.0441 and D value is 94.0369. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is currently well overbought, but the D value has not overtaken the K value, meaning the fund could produce gains for a few more days before ultimately turning downward. All similar stochastic overbought levels since the election are annotated on the chart above with a vertical orange line. All seven instances lead to a drop in the fund. Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the fund could drop at least 2% over the next 25 trading days if not sooner.
AMEX:XLYShort
by StockSignaler
Bearish Gap Fill Pending For First SolarFirst Solar has been in a clearly defined downward trend since between May and August of 2016. As of the close on May 12, this stock is at the top of the cycle which is near a strongly established resistance. The projected future movements are highlighted below. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 81.4842. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is well overbought and due to retreat. The true strength index (TSI) is currently 21.9577. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock has been moving up. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.3173 and the negative is at 0.6377. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. Currently the positive indicator had been moving up, but may be in the early stages of its downward reversal. Projected future movement has been drawn in the VI window. The stochastic oscillator K value is 93.9795 and D value is 90.7662. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is currently in overbought territory. This indicator will drop, the question is will the stock drop with it or slowly begin to swing up and down? The stock recently gapped up after earnings. Gaps are typically filled, but the time in which this is done varies. Even though a closing of the gap may happen, simple movement to the bottom of the gap is much more likely and it is a staggering 11% drop from the May 12th closing price. Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside, although definitive downward movement may take a few more days to develop. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop at least 10% over the next 30 trading days if not sooner. More analysis at LimitLessLifeSkills!
NASDAQ:FSLRShort
by StockSignaler