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Stochastic Oscillator

How much will overbought Materials Sector Fall? XLBThe Materials Sector SPDR Fund has been in a bull trend since the end of the financial crisis. The trend has narrowed but remains upright since December 2016. The fund has been in a more specific trend channel since February and has created firm support and resistance levels. The fund is currently at that resistance level. Below I have laid out the reasons and levels to which the fund may dip will it continue its overall bull trend. When we take a look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 64.9868. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is below overbought levels, however, the RSI has developed a resistance point of its own. The RSI has been reaching lower highs since December 2016 and is once again at this key resistance point. If the RSI begins to retreat, the fund should follow suit. The true strength index (TSI) is currently 4.4168. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. Like the RSI, the TSI has created relative resistance since December. This indicator is about to hit that threshold. Failure to substantially break above this resistance, the fund should drop in the near-term. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.1174 and the negative is at 0.7410. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. These indicators have been in a relatively tight trend since mid-February. When the positive VI was last at its current level, the fund tapered down which ultimately led to a drop to the fund's support line (dotted pinkish-purple on the chart). The stochastic oscillator K value is 92.2124 and D value is 87.3198. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic currently overbought, but the D value has not overtaken the K value, meaning the fund could produce gains for a few more days before ultimately turning downward. The last three times the fund hit its resistance, it did manage to drop down to its support level in less than 12 days. The first drop was in January over 9 trading days and it resulted in a 3.62% decline. March saw a 3.41% decline over then following 6 trading days while April had a 2.91% drop over 11 days. These timeframes and declines could be blueprints for the current bounce off of the resistance level. Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the fund could drop at least 2% over the next 23 trading days if not sooner.
AMEX:XLBShort
by StockSignaler
Biotech ETF Double Top Drop To Technical SupportThe SPDR S&P Biotech ETF began its departure from the bearish double top around the beginning of May. Typically the stock drops toward its last strong support level, and most times drops below that as well. Currently, the stock has been trending down, but is yet to make it to this shared support at 66.30. With the gains for the ETF on June 1, it could be an excellent time to setup a short position. When we take a look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 51.3469. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is neutral. The ETF could move either direction but may not be prone to volatile swings. The true strength index (TSI) is currently 0.4073. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The TSI is pointing down and the 50 day moving average for the TSI has been on top and parallel for at least two weeks. This is an indicator the ETF could continue its overall downtrend. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.9448 and the negative is at 0.9331. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. These indicators have been in a tight channel and are both below 1. The first indicator to cross above 1 could be the prevailing direction in which the ETF will move. The stochastic oscillator K value is 28.7305 and D value is 35.2426. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is currently trending down, but has at least five days until it could reach oversold territory. This will be the key indicator to watch on when the potential bottom of the downward movement is reached. Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop at least 4% over the next 19 trading days if not sooner.
AMEX:XBIShort
by StockSignaler
Will The Bears Viciously Attack Lowe's Again?Lowe's is setting up to repeat previous large declines after its most recent earnings call. The stock has been in a bullish trend since 2015. The stock has cycled in tight channels up and down throughout this bullish run. Currently Lowe's just repeated movement that has resulted in a two quick 13% drops. Near-term downward movement is outlined below. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 30.2113. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is near oversold levels. This indicator does contradict my projected movement, however, both previous similar pattern instances kept the RSI hovering around oversold levels during the course of their drops. The true strength index (TSI) is currently 1.8606. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The TSI is pointing down. More importantly the 50 day moving average on the TSI has begun to trend down. This exact same thing happened the last two times the stock gave up 13%. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.7017 and the negative is at 1.1622. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. Currently the stock is dropping per the trend and position of these indicators. The stochastic oscillator K value is 23.1291 and D value is 22.7512. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current signal has the stock flirting with oversold. Similar to the RSI on the last two drops of 13%, the stochastic hovered around oversold territory for a while. This scenario could be repeated this time as well. During the bull trend, the stock has cycled up and down. When the stock breaks down from its upcycle trend, the stock has dropped 13%. This occurred in early 2016 and again in August of 2016. Both drops occurred within 25 trading days. On May 24, the stock broke down from its recent uptrend. A 13% drop would take the stock down to 69.85. A fairly likely drop could bring the stock down to at least 75.50 in the near-term. Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop at least 4% over the next 34 trading days if not sooner.
NYSE:LOWShort
by StockSignaler
American Airlines Losing Some AltitudeAmerican Airlines has been in a bullish trend since last year. During this course of this trend, the stock has moved down after hitting resistance. The stock is currently at this point of resistance and should follow suit by moving down. I will outline why the near-term movement is likely to the downside below. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 65.8724. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is not necessarily at an overbought point, but it has been trending lower since December. During this downtrend, the RSI has failed to break through this resistance. The RSI is currently at this point of resistance. If the RSI fails to move above it, the stock could begin its downward movement in the near-term. This is the first indicator of potential near-term downward movement. The true strength index (TSI) is currently 12.0840. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The TSI has been trending up, but its upward movement is starting to stall. This stall is the second indicator of potential near-term downward movement. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.1147 and the negative is at 0.7578. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The positive indicator has stayed above the negative indicator for almost two months. This won't last forever, but as long as the positive stays above the negative this could slow any drop in the stock. The stochastic oscillator K value is 85.2360 and D value is 64.3122. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The K value is currently overbought, but the overall oscillator is not yet overbought. The stock's current bull trend has naturally cycled up and down to get from bottom to top. During this current trend channel, the current stochastic level has served as a top and the stock dropped. On March 30, the stock fell over 4% over the next 3 trading days. On May 11, the stock fell 6% over the next 5 trading days. This is the third indicator of potential near-term downward movement. Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop at least 3.5% over the next 20 trading days if not sooner.
NASDAQ:AALShort
by StockSignaler
Trading Applications: How To Use Oscillators Correctly! You need to read the tutorial first before this post. Here is the tutorial : This is an example of how to apply the concepts I explained in the oscillators tutorials. I have numbered the text boxes so that you read them in the correct sequence. Start from the left hand side and move along the chart. In this example we have applied some basic concepts like support and resistance and candlestick patterns as an additional tools to the oscillators. It is always important to use more tools to support your view (but not too many). Also it's always important to put things in context of the the price action. Whether it is trending up or down or sideways. In addition, remember to look at the bigger picture, as an uptrend on the daily chart , might be merely an upwave in a sideways market on the weekly or monthly chart. Best Technician
Education
by Technician
18
Trading Fundamentals: How To Use Oscillators Correctly!Note: A prerequisite tutorial about trends is posted in the related links below. Oscillators can be a very useful indicators in trading if used correctly. However misusing them will only return disappointing results. Some of the most popular examples of oscillators are the stochastics, and relative strength index . I will use stochastic in this tutorial, but the same logic applies to most other oscillators. Definitions: What are oscillators: Oscillators are indicators that derive their value from the price . The price is an input for the oscillator formula. The formula is usually a simple calculation that compares the latest close value for the price to a the range of price over a specific period of time( u can change this period in the oscillators settings). Then give the result in a percentage format(0 to 100). The main purpose of this calculation is to show whether the price is overbought or oversold compared to that period range. For example: if stochastic reading is at 80% or above, its said to be overbought. And if at 20% below it is oversold. Divergence: When the price is making new highs and the oscillator fails to make a new high, this is called a bearish divergence. The opposite is true, when the price is making new lows and the oscillator fails to make new lows this is called a bullish divergence. Bullish divergence is a buy signal and bearish divergence is sell signal. If you follow the overbought and oversold signals and divergences as a sell and buy signals without taking in consideration the price trend, the results will be catastrophic. ill explain why shortly How to use oscillators to maximize your chances: 1) In TRENDING MARKETS Rule #1: Oversold signals in uptrending market is a reliable buy signal. Overbought signals in downtrending market is reliable sell signal. Look at the chart, start from the left, you can see that the price broke above the latest swing high for the prior down trend, And that signalled a potential reversal. Accordingly, a trader should had looked to buy new oversold signals on stochastic. Afterwards, every time the stoch. was oversold in this uptrending market, we witnessed a rebound and resumption of the uptrend. Same logic should be applied to downtrending market. Rule #2: Overbought doesn't mean sell if occurs in an uptrend, and oversold doesn't mean buy if in downtrend. Rule #3 : Bearish divergence doesn't mean sell if occurs in an uptrend, and bullish divergence doesn't mean buy if occurs in a downtrend. This might be counter intuitive, but the chart above gives a clear example: As you can see on the chart, when the market is up-trending, overbought, and bearish divergences signals are very common due to the fact that there is a strong demand. Therefore these signals are NOT RELIABLE and should be ignored. UNLESS there are other major multiple technical indications of reversal such as a major resistance level, and a bearish candlestick formation, or trend structure break. Same logic goes for down-trending market, where you should ignore oversold signals and bullish divergences. At the end of the chart, another example of a bearish breakout below the uptrend structure. That was an early signal of a new downtrend. After that breakout, traders should look to sell new OB signals on stochastic. 2) In SIDEWAYS MARKETS Overbought and oversold are reliable on a sideways market. Have a look at the image below If you spot a side-ways market, look to buy oversold signals and sell overbought signals. As the price tends to reverse direction near the top and bottom of the range. If the range is broken, you should exit your trade and stop applying the the logic of sideways market. instead look to apply the logic of the trending market explained above. Hope this will help you trade better Best Tech
Education
by Technician
29
Leidos To Give Some BackLeidos has been in a bullish trend since last year. During this course of this trend, the stock has move down after hitting resistance. This resistance was struck once again on May 25. May 25 also paved the way for a double top, which is a bearish signal. I will outline why the near-term movement is likely to the downside below. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 63.7117. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is overbought and due to drop. This indicator has not received overbought territory since the end of February. However, this indicator has been trending downward preventing newer highs. Currently, this oscillator is at the resistance point it has been reversing at. This is the first indication of potential downward movement in the near-term. The true strength index (TSI) is currently 8.0001. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. This indicator has also had resistance similar to that observed in the RSI oscillator. Once again the indicator is near that level of resistance. This is the second indication of potential downward movement in the near-term. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.9866 and the negative is at 0.9193. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. Currently both indicators are relatively flat (below 1) and have been in a very tight movement span since early May. The stock should move in the direction of which ever indicator breaks from this tight pattern. The stochastic oscillator K value is 89.3405 and D value is 58.6453. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The K value is currently overbought, but the overall oscillator is not yet overbought. The stock could move up a little more before reversing, or it could simply reverse now. This is the third indication of potential downward movement in the near-term. The formation of the double top is the fourth indication of potential downward movement. A double top occurred in March and the stock dropped 9.33% over 16 trading days. If this is indeed a double top, a similar drop could occur. Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could gain at least 2.60% over the next 29 trading days if not sooner.
NYSE:LDOSShort
by StockSignaler
Contrary To Some Analysts; Gains Ahead For Macy'sMacy's has been in a bearish downtrend since late 2015. Although the overall trend is down, the stock does cycle up and down throughout the trend. On May 19, the stock bounced off support and should slightly cycle up over the course of the next month and a half. This is the first indicator the stock should move up. With mixed earnings from retail out of the way for now, the following points will highlight why the stock should move upward. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 27.2540. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is overbought and due to drop. This indicator has recently exited oversold territory. The stock is due to slowly move, or move up over the next few weeks. This is the second indicator of potential upward movement. The true strength index (TSI) is currently -35.5789. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current movement has the stock moving down. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.7106 and the negative is at 1.2909. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. Currently both indicators are at extreme levels which typically lead to a reversal of the stock. The positive indicator should begin to move upward while the negative indicator heads down. This is the third indicator the stock should begin moving up. The stochastic oscillator K value is 11.4677 and D value is 7.5284. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is oversold and the K has finally moved above the D. This is the fourth indication of pending near-term upward movement. Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the upside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could gain at least 5% over the next 31 trading days if not sooner.
NYSE:M
by StockSignaler
Potential Bullish Head and Shoulders, Heading Down FirstQualcomm has been potentially forming a well-known technical trading indicator called a head and shoulders (HnS) pattern. This pattern is basically made up of three peaks or triangles with the middle triangle have a higher top than the ones flanked on each side. A HnS pattern with the peaks on top is bearish as the stock drops upon the final triangle (or shoulder) taking shape. A bullish HnS is the opposite where the peaks are actually valleys. Upon the final shoulder being created, the stock goes up. I have outlined the case below on the currently forming bullish HnS pattern. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 75.1524. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is overbought and due to drop. The stock should drop with this. A drop will begin the formation of the final shoulder in the HnS pattern. The true strength index (TSI) is currently -0.4758. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock has been moving up, but it is near the levels of reversal that occurred at the initial forming of this HnS. This further aids in a potential indicator of near-term downward movement. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.3659 and the negative is at 0.5682. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. Currently both indicators are at extreme levels which typically lead to a reversal of the stock. This is the third indication of near-term downward movement for the stock. The stochastic oscillator K value is 84.6919 and D value is 85.7988. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is currently overbought and due to retreat. This is the fourth indication of pending near-term downward movement. During the possible formation of this current HnS setup, the 200 day moving average (DMA) has acted as a strong level of resistance. This means the stock approaches the 200 DMA (redline across the chart) and then it drops. Currently, the stock is nearing this DMA further signaling a retreat is coming. I am only focusing on the first leg of the remaining HnS in this article. The chart above does display the movement of this leg that completes the final shoulder top and the green up arrow depicts estimated completion of the shoulder. After the right shoulder is completed, earnings should be reported for QCOM. The results from earnings could be the jolt that fully completes this pattern and finally excels above the 200 DMA. Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop at least 8% over the next 28 trading days if not sooner.
NASDAQ:QCOMShort
by StockSignaler
Short-Term Upside For Retail?The SPDR fund tracking S&P Retail has been trending up for years. Lately the industry and fund have been on some rocky footing. Currently the fund is at a potential key support level with value to the upside. The projected future movements are highlighted below based on technical indicators. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 36.0704. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The RSI has established two upward trending levels of support. Currently the RSI just bounced off of one of these lines. The last three times this occurred since this RSI support trend began resulted in quick gains of 5.36%, 7.83%, and 9.60%. This is the first indicator this fund could turn bullish. The true strength index (TSI) is currently 4.0070. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The TSI has also been trending up since the beginning of 2016. Although the current TSI level is not near this supporting trendline, the delay in the indicator could be the reason. It is important to note the TSI has come down from its most recent peak and its current position normally occurs as the fund is sliding downward. This indicator may be telling us the downward movement may continue for a little bit longer before the fund progresses upward. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.6967 and the negative is at 1.1494. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. Even though both indicators are unfavorable to bullish movement, they have both begun to reverse course. This reversal does require more movement to favor new bullish movement for the fund. If this movement occurs within the next 3 days, the fund should begin moving upward. The stochastic oscillator K value is 4.0425 and D value is 11.0491. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. This indicator is clearly in oversold territory. Previous oversold levels for this indicator during the fund's upward trend have always lead to a reversal. This is another strong indicator the fund will move upward. Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the upside, although definitive upward movement may take a few more days to develop. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the fund could gain at least 4% over the next 27 trading days if not sooner.
AMEX:XRTLong
by StockSignaler