Possible Wave 5 to follow completion of Wave 4 (Triangle)It appears 5 subwaves of a Contracting Triangle have completed in wave 4. It looks like this Contracting Triangle may be the full corrective move of wave 4 since it has reached the .382 fib retracement of wave 3, this is the most common retracement for a wave 4. It also appears to have ended near extreme of wave 4 of one lesser degree in the impulse which is another common price level for a corrective move in wave 4. This wave 4 is also in correct proportion to wave 2. The RSI indicator supports my prediction that wave 4 has ended. RSI Range Rules say that in an up-trending market RSI will typically fall back to the 50-40 zone in a corrective move and bounce up at its completion. The Stochastic is also nearly showing oversold conditions.
Entry:
Conservative entry on the break of the wave D extreme.
Stop Loss:
Just below the extreme of wave E.
Targets:
My system says pattern over hard take profit targets so I will wait for a 5 wave impulse to complete while managing the trade along the way (Lessen Risk -> Eliminate Risk -> Protect Open Profits). As a guideline wave 5 could possibly end around the line drawn from the extreme of wave 3, parallel to a line connecting the extreme of waves 2 and 4. The other 2 targets are based on wave 5 being equal to a .328 multiple of the net distance of wave 1 through 3 and being equal to a .618 multiple of the net distance of wave 1 through 3. All of these are common fib multiples for wave 5 in an impulse.
Stochastic Oscillator
Buy The Coming Dip For AT&TOn March 31, 2017, AT&T ( NYSE:T ) crossed below its 50 day moving average (MA) while its 100 day MA crossed over the 200 day MA. Both events have never occurred on the same day. Historically the stock has crossed below the 50 MA 330 times and the stock does not always drop. It has a median loss of 2.239% and maximum loss of 25.170 % over the next 8 trading days. Historically the 100 MA has crossed over the 200 MA 20 times and the stock does not always rise. It has a median gain of 3.959% and maximum gain of 21.067 % over the next 20 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 45.0401. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is slightly moving down.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 3.9504. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is slightly moving down.
The negative vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.0906. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is moving down.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 22.22 and D value is 18.62. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock is coming out of an oversold level, meaning the stock should go higher in the next few days.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to be heading down in the very short term, but up in the long term. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could lose another 1% over the next 5 trading days. After this drop, the stock could move up toward the resistance level around 42.50. From the close on March 31, the stock could gain 2% within the next four weeks. If bought near the anticipated dip, the gain could be greater than 3.5%.
Decision Time For Kellogg's TechnicalsOn March 31, 2017, the Kellogg Company ( NYSE:K ) 20 day moving average (MA) cross below the 50 day MA. Historically this has occurred 82 times and the stock does not always drop. It has a median loss of 1.821% and maximum loss of 9.091% over the next 5 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 40.7957. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is slowly moving down.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -4.5126. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is moving down.
The negative vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.0516. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is moving down.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 16.9329 and D value is 17.6418. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward and has been due for a reversal the past five days.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to be heading down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could lose another 0.48% over the next 5 trading days. The overall Macro trend is forming a wedge with the apex around mid-May. It is highly likely Kellogg will break out of this wedge before May. Based on the current readings, the break from the wedge could occur in the current downtrend. The determining factor will be when the stock crosses through the support line currently around 72.20. A strong break down with greater than 3 million in volume would lead to a deeper drop for the stock. If the support is not broken on this trip, a break above resistance (top yellow line) with volume could signify a stronger move up.
Southern To Drop And Then RiseOn March 31, 2017 The Southern Company ( NYSE:SO ) crossed above its 150 day for the second time in 26 trading days. Historically this has occurred 222 times and the stock does not always rise. It has a median gain of 2.717 % and maximum gain of 14.698 % over the next 15 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 47.3590. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is slightly heading down, but not in a strong manner.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 10.2015. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is up, however, it is begun to retreat from higher levels.
Both vortex indicators (VI) are below 1 with the positive value slightly on top of the negative. The VI determines current trend and direction. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is relatively neutral and could begin to climb within a week.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 19.2587 and D value is 27.6028. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock is trending down with narrowing divergence between the K and D values which means the drop is almost over.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall near-term stock direction appears to be downward for a few days before heading up. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop another 1% over the next five days and gain 2.5% from that point which is roughly 1.59% from its current level. The stock has crossed below the 150 day MA three times over the past three weeks for a drop of at least 1%. The median drop when this occurs is 1.869%. The last cross below was only two days ago and has not completed its 1% drop yet. I believe the stock will fall near the 49.30 level before moving up toward 50.57.
ZION Banc To DropOn March 31, 2017 the Zion Bancorporation ( NASDAQ:ZION ) crossed below its 100 day for the second time in 9 trading days. Historically this has occurred 169 times and the stock does not always drop. It has a median loss of 3.454 % and maximum loss of 30.112 % over the next 15 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 42.6531. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is slightly heading down, but not in a strong manner.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -14.910. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is moving down.
The negative vortex indicator (VI) is 1.42. The VI determines current trend and direction. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock moving down.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 49.9104.8377 and D value is 37.7580. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock is trending up with decently large divergence which indicates the potential for continued upward movement.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall near-term stock direction appears to be downward. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop 3.79% over the next two weeks. Last time the stock crossed below this MA, it dropped 3.672%. There is a level of support around 40.41 which is where I would expect the stock to drop to.
QCOM Treading Water For NowOn March 31, 2017 the Qualcomm Incorporated ( QCOM ) 100 day moving average (MA) crossed below its 200 day MA. Historically this has occurred 19 times and the stock drops at least 0.235%, with a median loss of 3.023% and maximum loss of 16.621 % over the next 10 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 50.3856. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is neutral.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -0.0481. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is neutral and has been floating there for almost two weeks.
The negative vortex indicator (VI) is currently 1.1147. The VI determines current trend and direction. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 50.5088 and D value is 39.3695. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock has been trending up but is currently neutral on direction which will not last long.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall near-term stock direction appears to be indiscernible. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop 1.5% over the next two weeks. The minimum drop the last five times this MA crossover occurred was around 2%.
Intermediate Gain For INTC, Set To Drop FirstOn March 31, 2017 Intel Corporation ( INTC ) crossed above its 100 day moving average (MA), while the 50 day MA crossed below its 150 day MA. This multiple cross event has never occurred before. Historically the stock has crossed above the 100 day MA 241 times. When this happens, the stock does not always continue to gain. It has a median gain of 5.777% and maximum gain of 34.615% over the next 15 trading days. Historically the 50 MA has crossed below the 150 MA 33 times. When this happens, the stock has dropped at least 0.05%. It has a median loss of 4.464% and maximum loss of 23.498% over the next 15 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 57.6486. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is neutral but heading upward.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -13.7715. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is trending down, however, the indicator recently hit a low point and has begun to climb.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is currently 1.1253 and recently crossed above the negative indicator. The VI determines current trend and direction. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is trending upward.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 84.77 and D value is 72.55. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock has been trending up but is approaching the overbought level--due to signal a crossover within a week and lead to a decline in the stock.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall near-term stock direction appears to be trending upward. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could gain 4.3% over the next four weeks. I am tracking two scenarios with the latter being most likely. The first one is the stock goes up to my target line without a significant drop. The likely course, the stock could drop by mid-April to the support line of its current trend which would satisfy the stochastic reading. After this drop, the stock would be able to hit my target level of 37.65.
TDC Double Cup & Handle?! Strong case for breakoutOver the past year and a half TDC has formed what looks like a double cup and handle, where the handle for the first cup&handle formation is the cup for the 2nd cup&handle.
Supporting Information:
- Formation began with a large gap down from $36.12 to $33.03 on 8/6/15
- A strong resistance/support line (currently support) at about $30.70, which also constitutes a 38.2% fib retrace from TDC's high on 2/9/17 at $33.32
- From TDC's low of $21.98 in January of last year, the stock pulled back then bounced nicely after retracing 61.8 % (fib)
- Both Stoch and CCI are currently in oversold territory
- Since TDC began consolidating on 2/13, volume has been lower on down days and higher on up days, most recently showing declining volume as the stock has dropped
- 50 day MA could provide additional support when it catches up to the stock
I would recommend waiting until there is a clear breakout of this small pullback, preferably on strong volume (at least higher than average) with a close at or near its daily high . If this happens I would expect the stock to retest its high (between $33.00-$33.30), probably consolidating just under resistance until it finally breaks out. After a breakout above $33.30, next resistance would be after the stock closes the gap created on 8/6/15, with resistance between $35.80 and $36.12
And as always, make sure you have a stop loss in place, which I would place below current support between $30.50 & $30.30 and adjust up if the breakout occurs.
Gold Keeps Falling, Breaks Below 1200Gold slowly consolidated today after selling off 5 points at the start of the overnight session. Then at the end of the day, price fell through the magical 1200 level (magical only because it's a nice round number :-) ). We now await the non-farm payroll numbers tomorrow at 8:30 am EST. If the ADP numbers yesterday are an indication, this number may beat the 200k forecasted.
There are now 6 consecutive Heikin-Ashi candles (see my indicator at bottom of chart) and price has solidly moved past all moving averages and the Ichimoku Cloud. There are 2 key support levels coming up. The first is at 1190 which is a low volume node on the Volue Profile chart (see below). The second is @ 1177.5, which is the 23% fib retracement from the election night high. This also corresponds to another low volume node at 1170 on the volume profile.
Disclaimer: This post is for information purposes only. All trading is at your own risk.
Gold continuation trade Price failed to break the 0.23 fib (1241.357) level which is was also a previous resistance level now turned support. Slow stochastics are now indicating that Gold is moving out of an oversold position. Got a tight stop in case we drop to the 0.50 Fib (1220.185) leading into non farm payrolls this Friday.
Preparation for EURCAD Short OpportunityNothing is definite yet, but I will be looking for signs of possible Euro weakness, on this chart, and on other Euro pairs.
This trade setup is similar to how I shorted GBPUSD towards the end of last week, using the Stochastic Oscillator and selling at resistance
I called this setup a symmetrical triangle but the resistance trendline was broken, mainly due to CAD weakness.
So, how I shorted GU was price reached resistance while the Stochastic was overbought.
It appears that the same exact setup will be forming on this EURCAD trade, as price reaches resistance at 1.3960 - by then the stochastic oscillator will be overbought.
Rather, the Stochastic is already overbought, but it is lagging, so it will range in the overbought area for a couple 4h candles while price consolidates.
Then I will wait for a relatively strong bearish confirmation candle and the Stochastic crossing under 80.
EURUSD 4HR Support and Resistance / Intra-day tradingThe various trendlines are illuminated on the chart. The red lines and green lines are the resistances and supports, respectively. Since the pair has been on a streak and has been overbought for several days, the Fibonacci retracements , trend lines and indicators like stochastics, RSI, CCI indicate that its high time for correction. The pair most probably would bounce in between the trend lines shown on the chart. Unless the fundamental data of Euro abruptly changes since M Draghi is going to have a speech today. Still most probable move is downwards. Hence, for intra day trading , today is a fine day to short the pair