Fundamental & Technical analysis on USOILMay 20th 2024
Fundamental: Were seeing a up tick in Non-comm Long and Short positions being held. Shorts are increasing at a faster pace. The Net positions is positive and holding steady.
Commercial (Hedgers) short positions is increasing significantly quicker then Longs, Net position is negative and decreasing/holding.
Technical: I'm expecting to see consolidation for the coming week/s between 78-81 with price action making a lower high causing a fake EMA cross over to the upside and setting its self up for more down side.
Entry Criteria: For me to consider a entry i have to keep seeing Short positions increase for both Non-comm and Comm in the coming weeks as well as Non-comm Longs decreasing. Ideally for Price action i want to see USOIL consolidate then make a lower high before its leg down (BLUE), there's the possibility it makes the lower high without consolidating (RED) but I do need to see the 5 EMA cross down the 20 EMA while Momentum is negative and the Stochastic is crossing down 50%
Stochasticcrossover
EURUSD potential upside move EURUSD is setting its self up in the same way US30 is, they’ve both seen consolidation after a sell off.
Technical : EURUSD is having its 3 EMA cross over its 10 EMA to the upside while at the same time the Stochastic is crossing the 50-80% mark to the upside as well. Price action has also tested the Top trendline, possibly setting up for a break out. Waiting for candle closes is going to be KEY to confirm a crossover on the stochastic and EMAs
US30 Pushing UpUS30 has been in a area of consolidation for the past week and a half after having a large sell off for the previous two weeks.
Technical : On US30 we're seeing the 3 EMA cross the 10 EMA upwards while at the same time the Stochastic is pointing up while crossing the 50%-80% mark. Price action is also making its way to the upper Trendline which has 3 previous touches, possibly setting up for a break out. It is KEY to wait for the candle to close when getting a cross over of the EMAs and Stochastic because its always possible that it just bounces instead of completing the cross over.
Potential double bottom on SalmThis is a gem. Under the radar, super undervalued. Nothing wrong with allocated 2-3% of your portfolio for long term. I could see this hitting 20-30 in the next 2 years. All the technical and fundamentals are screaming BUY. Wish me luck!
The Different Ways To Trade The StochasticsCryptohopper Newsletter
The market has been very volatile over the past month with Bitcoin crashing 65% to 3,800$ . The price has since made an astonishing 80% recovery in one week from March 13th until the 20th. Following the recovery to almost 7,000$; the price has continued to range between 6,900$ and 5,600$. During the crash, many traders have attempted to buy the dip, just to see it dip even lower. Today we will explore how you could mitigate this risk by using stochastics with region crossover.
Without further due, let’s get into how you could have traded this past month by using the normal stochastics and the stochastics with region crossovers.
Different stochastic strategies
There are many different ways to use stochastics. Today we will explore 2 of them, along with their advantages and disadvantages:
Stochastics oversold: This strategy involves getting into a position when the stochastics drop below 20.
This strategy works better when the broader trend is in your favor, as it is expected for the price drops to be shortlived and to continue moving higher. The advantage of this is that you will be getting in at the lower prices in an uptrend.
This strategy can be very dangerous during a market crash though, or when the price is bearish in general as you will be getting in the trade, while the price will continue to drop further . This can be seen very well in the first three trades where the price continued to drop lower even though the stochastics were already oversold.
Stochastics with region crossover: This strategy involves getting into a position once the value of the asset in question rises again above 20.
This strategy can work very well in a downtrend but also in an uptrend depending on the severity of the pullback. In a downtrend, this strategy increases the probability that you are entering the trade only when the momentum is back in your favor. This can be seen by the first three entries in the graph where the buy point was 7%, 8%, and 16% lower than with the oversold strategy
In an uptrend, if the pullback is very large then this strategy will again ensure that the price will not continue [/b its descent once you enter. However, if the pullbacks are not very severe, then you will enter at a worse price point.
Overall the stochastics with region crossovers is more conservative and can lead to higher profits when the markets are volatile, as it is the case right now. Join us at Cryptohopper, where you can automate both of these strategies along with many others!
STEPPING STONE STOCHASTIC STRATEGYStep #1: Identify a strong trading market that has a clear bullish trend
The first step is to identify a strong trading market that has a clear bullish trend.
Our team at Trading Strategy Guides has discovered that you can benefit more by using the stochastic indicator to trade pullbacks rather than trying to pick a falling knife or to jump in front of a train.
Consequently, you want to find a strong trading market'
Step #2: The Stochastic indicator needs to develop a double bottom pattern. The second bottom has to be higher than the first bottom.
It’s critical to make the difference between the double bottom price pattern and the fact that we’re looking at the stochastic indicator to develop a double bottom.
The other condition is that we need the second stochastic swing low to be higher than the first bottom.
Step #3: Both stochastic swing lows need to be in oversold territory below the 20 level
A stochastic reading below the 20 level suggests that the market is oversold and there is a high chance of reversal.
Many times a market can remain in oversold or overbought territory longer than you can remain solvent which is the reason why we have put in place the other trading rules so we can avoid this situation.
Step #4: Look for divergence to develop between the stochastic indicator and the market price
Before we go any further than this, we need to clarify one thing.
The way people trade divergence is by using a variety of momentum based indicators and measure or compare when the momentum indicator and the price diverge.
In other words, when the price makes a lower low but the momentum indicator fail to make a lower low and instead makes a higher low then we have a situation where we have divergence.
So, what type of divergence we want to see?
In plain English, we look for the price not to drop that much compared with the stochastic indicator. Notice how the stochastic indicator is falling very fast into oversold territory, but the EUR/USD exchange rate is dropping at a much slower pace.
Note* the stronger the divergence between the stochastic indicator and the price the better the buy signal can be.
Step #5: How to trade stair strategy: Buy after the second bottom develops a stochastic crossover
The trigger for our entry is quite simple.
Once the second bottom produces a stochastic crossover, we jump straight into the market and start buying so we won’t miss a great entry opportunity. In this scenario, our entry is as close as possible to the end point of the retracement.
Step #6: Place the protective stop loss below the last swing low. Take Profit when the slow stochastic moving average enters in overbought territory above 80 levels.
Place your protective stop loss 10 pips below the last swing low. We’re adding a buffer of 10 pips to protect ourselves in case of any false breakouts.
Usually, our stop will be very close to our entry price which is the reason why this swing trading strategy is such a great entry technique to keep your losses small.
You really can use any type of exit strategy as you wish
Where to take profit is also quite intuitive using the stair step chart pattern.
Once the stochastic slow moving averages enter overbought territory or when it touches the 80 level, we want to cash out. Alternatively, if you’re going to try to stay longer in the trend you can try our 10-day breakout strategy.
Note** the above was an example of a BUY trade using the stepping stones strategy. Use the same rules for a SELL trade – but in reverse.
PM me if you want to read the complete strategy.