The Hidden-Threat(s) To Gold-Trading During Friday!
So the economic-data seemed good today for the Gold-price. Initially, at commencement of NY session today (Thursday) the USDX came rallying off its 38.2% retracement. But it quickly quietened down & retreated even further and Gold was able to lift somewhat.
There are Heads 'N' Shoulders patterns that have formed on the USDX charts from 5m right up to 30m. See the charts & USDX on the left of screen. A rally to the neckline, a retrace and it could really move hard and fast during Friday.
What I also see is hidden divergence on the 15m and 240m Stochastic charts for Gold XAUUSD. This is probably not the main concern, it would be the USDX setting up for a rally very soon.
Lets see how it plays out.
Stochasticdivergence
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Mastering Oscillators In TradingOscillator indicators are technical analysis tools that show the rate at which a particular asset's price or other aspect is changing. Oscillators help traders identify potential trend reversals, trend continuations, and overbought or oversold conditions. These are general strategies that can apply to most oscillators. We would like to cover these in detail so you can ensure that you are using your oscillators to the fullest of their potential.
There are literally thousands of oscillators to choose from on TradingView. All of them probably have a solid use case, but there are a handful of oscillators that have stood the test of time. Those titans of the oscillator category would include the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Stochastic Oscillator.
1. Trading with Oscillators: Identifying Entry and Exit Points
To use oscillators for trading, traders can look for signals to enter or exit trades. For example, a bullish signal could occur when the indicator crosses above its centerline, indicating that the trend is shifting from bearish to bullish. A bearish signal could occur when the indicator crosses below its centerline, indicating that the trend is shifting from bullish to bearish. Depending on if you are currently in a trade or considering a trade these bullish/bearish signals can be used as either an entry or exit signal.
Traders can also use the momentum of oscillator indicators to identify overbought or oversold conditions. An asset is considered overbought when the oscillator is above a certain threshold, such as 70. Conversely, an asset is considered oversold when an oscillator is below a certain threshold, such as 30. Traders can use these thresholds to identify potential reversal points. Highly overbought can be power areas to look for entry or exit signals.
2. Oscillator Divergences: Confirming Trend Reversals and Continuations
One of the most popular ways oscillators are used is by looking for divergences between the indicator and the price of the asset being analyzed.
For example, a bullish divergence could occur when the price of an asset is making lower lows, but the oscillator is making higher lows. This could be an indication that the trend is about to reverse from bearish to bullish.
Conversely, a bearish divergence could occur when the price of an asset is making higher highs, Oscillator is making lower highs. This could be an indication that the trend is about to reverse from bullish to bearish.
3. Using Oscillators in Combination with Other Technical Indicators
While oscillators can be an incredibly powerful tool on their own, traders can also use them in combination with other technical indicators. For example, traders can use moving averages to confirm oscillator signals. If the oscillator generates a bullish signal and the price of the asset is above its 50-day moving average, it could be a strong indication that the trend is shifting from bearish to bullish.
We see a similar use case in a bearish scenario to follow a trend!
Traders can also use momentum in combination with other oscillators, such as the relative strength index (RSI) or the Stochastic RSI. These indicators provide additional confirmation of momentum signals and can help traders avoid false signals. This is actually one of our favorites as the Stochastic RSI is a measure of the momentum of the RSI. So their respective signals can complement very well.
Putting It All Together
Traders can put this knowledge forward to use most oscillators correctly to adjust their trading strategies and adapt to changing market conditions. We also recommend looking at information the creator of an oscillator has put out in regard to how to properly use the indicator.
Traders can use these strategies to help modify or change their positions. For example, if the chosen oscillator used for an asset is weakening, it could be an indication that the trend is about to reverse. Traders can adjust their strategies accordingly by taking profit from their long positions or entering short positions.
Similarly, if the chosen oscillator for an asset is strengthening, it could be an indication that the trend is about to continue. Traders can adjust their strategies accordingly by adding to their long and short positions or entering new long or short positions.
In conclusion, oscillators are an extremely powerful technical analysis tool that can help traders identify potential trend reversals, trend continuations, and overbought or oversold conditions. By using oscillators in combination with other technical indicators and adjusting their trading strategies to adapt to changing market conditions, traders can improve their trading performance and achieve greater success in the markets.
Long Idea As we can see here HST has been moving in a huge symmetrical triangle as we can see here the stock consolidates for about 2 weeks and a half once touching down at support before breaking out to the upside to once again touch the resistance.
Things to NOTE:
1. Bullish Divergence on the RSI
2. Inverse H & S @HERE
3.Bullish PIN BAR on the WEEKLY time frame
These are very strong indicators that HST may see a move up on the upcoming weeks. Play it as you will, I'd love to hear your input on this or exchange ideas on other possible stock moves. Happy trading fellas :" }
GOLD MTF Wave stochastic example for trend reverseSometimes you don't need to count all of the Elliott Waves and pinpointing where the last Impulse started is enough to located the proper Time frame to look for that wave ending on the MTF. in this case the 1 month chart was the relative Time frame for the last impulse upwards (see where I wrote MTF stoch wave start) and you can see that from the Stoch being oversold on all time frames. then notice how the green (HTF) starts curving down at the end with a tap from blue and gray as a potential local top to exit at.. this is often all you need to trade a simple wave without too much complication. Please do not hesitate to ask any questions
SPX and NQ - short term bounce nextBoth indices appear to be finding support at their respective near term support zones and with bullish divergence seen (between price and stochastics), a bounce is likely to happen soon.
Whether the worst is over or whether this next rebound is going to be a short-lived bear rally remains to be seen. Not time to turn longer term bearish yet despite the extremely volatility this period (not to mention all the calls out there screaming for market to crash). Just my opinion!
If we start to have a lower high (and especially followed by a lower low), then I would certainly stay very cautious.
Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
BTCIDK guys, this move cant even hit the 26,500 level. The 1 to 1. The SRSI has already nuked below the TL support that has kept BTC in this high high , higher low momentum since the June lows.
If BTC can bounce here on H4 would likely hit a lower high. But the SRSI looks like a bearish Div at first glance.
Gap Leading to Channel BreakWith the MACD and Stoch flashing signals of bullish divergence and a gap that has not been filled, it seems likely that MCHP is getting ready to test its channel upper bound. To reach the channel upper bound it must clear another previously two unfilled gaps, the 21EMA and 63EMA.
We are also seeing a cross in the 21Mom, Stoch crossing over sold and the MACD preparing to cross its over sold.
If todays close is above yesterdays we will also see the candle pattern Three White Soliders. Though this pattern tends to warn that the majority of the bullish move is over and waiting for a throwback might be wise.
Is INTC getting ready to break its channel?As with most stocks, INTC has been in a bearish trend beginning this year. Recently it has entered into a neat downward channel. Following the last test of the channel upper bound (denoted by the blue flag), a substantial decline occurred. This decline ended with a volume spike against the lower bound.
The last test of the lower bound (denoted by the green flag) is strikingly different than the previous. It lacked a volume spike and did not push the Stoch or MACD to new lows. In fact, during the latest retracement up, both indicators flashed signals of a bullish divergence.
It seems likely that this retracement following the latest lower bound will take us at least to the upper bound, if not break the channel.
The Future: New StrategyFor years, I've been focused primarily on support and resistance , supply and demand , and chart patterns, and it's been profitable, but over the last few months I've been really inspired by traders using Digital Signal Processing as well as divergence and linear regression in their strategies. I've been looking to work off some of the concepts explored by groups like TradeATS, as well as Robot Wealth (no advertisement I've just been inspired by their work), and I'm going to be moving more into that territory going forward. So I'll be relying less on spotting supply and demand zones (sort of) and chart patterns and more focused market cycles; using DSP to lock on to shorter wavelengths, especially in areas where my divergence fractals are piling up one after the other; drawing regression lines through those consolidation periods and using them as a my "t" axis; then, only trading once price swings reach a lower wavelength. When I get divergence signals above the t line, and above consolidation, I'll look to short the market, vice-versa when price is below t. I'm still working out how to deal with (confirm) rejections above and below the t axis, but this is where I'm headed.
I once I started recognizing that consolidation doesn't just happen "sideways" and can also happen at an angle I was able to spot these cycles a lot easier by eye. The idea that, even while trending, price still oscillates around a fixed line is really promising, and I'm hoping it's something I can exploit in the future. I'm definitely going to be working on some indicators that can track these cycles as well, so be on the lookout for that. I'm pretty excited with this new direction and if you're interested in seeing how things develop, give me a follow because I'll be posting all about it. I highlighted two examples within the last week of the patterns I'm looking for. We're looking at about 70-100+ pips per swing! I'd take half of that, honestly.
the 4 hr is at critical .5 level and oversold stochfib of bounce gives us about 50% retracement if there is some recovery to tighten in range we could look back up at 22.23-22.48 setting a daily higher low if market decides to gap up friday. if vwma keeps rising and trama flattens out we will have a bounce in semis. if these indicators keep bearish divergence we are likely continuing lower in broader markets. $23 is still a critical level for this trade. $20.96 is the next level if we continue this pop down. semis started this correction only they can get it out.
TCC-W4 | Wave Analysis | Bullish Divergence TradingPrice action and chart pattern trading setup:
> An ending diagonal pattern with stochastic bullish divergence - possible rebound for wave 4
> Target SMA50 zone near upper elliott wave channel resistance - 0.382 retracement of wave 3
> Stoploss @ wave 3 lower channel support with RRR: 1.5:1
Indicator:
> Stochatic RSI bullish divergence signal
> MACD crossover signal line below center
> RSI slightly bullish divergence
Always trade with affordable risk and respect your stoploss